Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8

Another federal poll produces another respectable result for Labor, belying chatter about threats to Anthony Albanese’s leadership.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes one of the pollster’s quarterly dumps of its accumulated voting intention results, amounting to six new data points going back to early November. The latest of these, based on its most recent survey of 1092 respondents, is even more eye-catching than Newspoll in recording a Labor lead. The results bear the usual idiosyncrasies of Essential’s post-2019 election voting intention practices, in that the undecided are not excluded from the published figures on either primary vote and two-party preferred, and the latter is determined by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate a preference and previous election flows for those who don’t.

Had the undecided been excluded, the latest results would have been Coalition 40.2%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 10.9% and One Nation 3.3%, with Labor leading 51.6-48.4 on two-party preferred. However, the other five sets of results published for November through to mid-January show that the pollster has a quality (I believe it should be regarded as such) that Newspoll lacks, namely the normal variability that random samples of around 1000 respondents should naturally produce. So the mid-January result with the undecided excluded showed a quite different result, with the Coalition leading 51.6-48.4.

Over the longer term, the pollster finds the two parties to be evenly matched, which suggests the series is a little more favourable to Labor than Newspoll, but not greatly so. For the results in detail, observe the pollster’s full report or my BludgerTrack poll aggregate facility, which is updated with the new data on both the poll tracker and poll data table.

The poll also tackles the question of an early election, which respondents were dubious about, with 58% agreeing it would “just be opportunism for the Prime Minister to call an early election” compared with 42% who favour the alternative that an election would be “good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election”. I’m not completely sure myself what was gained here by not just asking respondents straight up if they wanted an early election or not.

Also featured are results on COVID-19, which find the federal government continuing to score high marks for its response, with 67% rating it good (steady since late November) and poor by 14% (down one). The small sample results for the state governments are likewise consistently high, with changes since November landing within their wide margins of error. New South Wales is down five to 71%, Victoria is up one to 61% (it was mostly in the high forties from the onset of the outbreak in July through to an upswing in November) and Queensland is up six to 78%, while the particularly small samples for Western Australia and South Australia produce results of 80% in each case, respectively down three (this was conducted before Perth’s lockdown began on Monday) and up ten.

The poll also finds 44% would favour their state governments being in charge of vaccine rollouts compared with 38% for the federal government, and most express confidence the rollout will be conducted efficiently and safely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,763 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8”

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  1. PM for nSW?

    Patrick Gorman MP
    @PatrickGormanMP
    ·
    39m
    Excuse me?

    Scott Morrison is “sympathetic” to putting NSW ahead of WA and all other states in the vaccine queue.

  2. meher baba @ #890 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 10:04 am

    c@tmomma: “Health is headed by Morrison toady, Brendan Murphy and Home Affairs is headed by Dutton and Morrison toady, Mike Pezzulo. The politicisation of the Public Service continues under the Coalition.”

    I don’t know much about Murphy’s career, but Pezzullo was a Labor apparatchik for many years. The enthusiasm for him on the part of Dutton, ScoMo et all is in spite of his political background, rather than because of it.

    Yes, the definition of a toady. That he would cast his principles to the wind to hang onto his position as Secretary, says it all.

    I do know that he was looking forward to a Labor federal government in 2019 and had written briefing notes to put their policies into effect but when it didn’t happen he doubled down on the Reactionary Conservatives’ agenda.

  3. C@t, I believe the $15 got dropped to get Manchin’s vote in the Senate.

    The importance of this ‘budget measure going to reconciliation’ passing both Houses, albeit tightly, is that the same technique can be used for other big policy spending initiatives coming along later – like climate change remediation investment and infrastructure.

    The Democrats get to govern, the Republicans can amuse themselves with culture and conspiracy wars..

  4. Political aggression doesn’t come naturally to sensitive Jim.

    Writing Tweets of that nature must be enormously emotionally draining to him.

  6. C@t, better to subscribe to a proper journal of record, like the NYTimes 🙂

    ‘The Senate agreed to a proposal by Senator Joni Ernst, Republican of Iowa, to prohibit any minimum wage increase during the pandemic — which could complicate Mr. Biden’s plan to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2025.

    Democrats did not contest Ms. Ernst’s proposal, arguing that it was never their intention to increase the wage immediately, but their reticence to record a vote on the matter was a signal that the wage increase might ultimately lack the support to pass in an evenly split Senate, where at least one Democrat, Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, is on record in opposition.’

  7. Speaking of the Republicans, I think they are going to be consumed putting out fires that have had gasoline poured on them:

    A fiery Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) declared Friday that the House’s decision to remove her from her committee assignments has liberated her to build a political network aimed at supporting former president Donald Trump and pushing the GOP further to the right.

    “Going forward, I’ve been freed,” she said. “I have a lot of free time on my hands, which means I can talk to a whole lot more people all over this country and … make connections and build a huge amount of support that I’ve already got started with.”

    … Asked about how she saw her role, Greene said she planned to “vote very conservative” and use her influence to cement Trump’s imprint on the GOP: “I’m going to be holding the Republican Party accountable and pushing them to the right.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/greene-trump-republicans/2021/02/05/f3e0a7be-67cf-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html

    Happy trails, Osama bin Karen. 😀

  8. [‘I’m wondering whether it includes the $15/hour Minimum Wage? By the looks of it, at $1.9 Trillion, it does.’]

    I’m not sure, cat. Oh, I see sprocket has answered your question.

  9. sprocket_,
    I find the NYT poorly laid out & difficult to read easily. They need a better font and a new web designer. 🙂

    Nevertheless, I do have subscriptions to both the Wash Po and the NYT.

  10. Basically, we seem to prescribe burn because the Department likes doing it, has been doing it for decades, it’s popular with the locals* and there’s a vague notion that ‘aborigines did it’ which seems to be based on absolutely no knowledge of what aborigines did and why. (Or that current burning off practices in the Northern Territory might not be relevant to eastern Australia).

    Fire ecologists are trying to get more data on historical indigenous practice. There is some knowledge left and there is information in the ecosystem itself.

  11. One for Alex’s horse.

    Fox lurches further to the right to win back ‘hard-edge’ Trump supporters

    Hosts have dabbled in conspiracy theories and aggressively attacked the Joe Biden administration as network’s ratings drop

    For two decades, Fox News has reigned supreme as America’s number one cable news channel. Until January, that is, when the network dropped to a once unthinkable third place in the ratings.

    The response from Fox News has not been a period of sombre self-reflection. Instead, the network seems to have made a chaotic lunge towards the right wing in recent weeks as hosts have dabbled in conspiracy theories and aggressively attacked the Joe Biden administration.

    Adding to the sense of crisis, Fox News laid off multiple staff in January – including the political editor who backed the network’s early decision that Biden had won Arizona – while on Thursday Smartmatic, an election technology company, filed a $2.7bn lawsuit against Fox News’ parent company, over allegations it participated in election fraud.
    …

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/feb/05/fox-news-lunges-further-right-win-back-hard-edge-trump-supporters

  12. If Kaveman Kelly can see his pre-selection hopes being dashed then I think he’s going to make Saint Scotty of the Marketing’s life utterly miserable until the election is called. Maybe him, Pete Evans and Gordon Rennick could start their own party.

  13. C@t and sprockets expert commentary on us politics. How funny ! The only certainty is any prognostication by this hilarious pairing will be wROng !

  15. Lars Von Trier:

    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 10:11 am

    [‘Political aggression doesn’t come naturally to sensitive Jim.]

    The inner mongrel in him is starting to appear. He wasn’t schooled in Suxex Street, you know.

  16. Kronomex @ #1455 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 7:18 am

    If Kaveman Kelly can see his pre-selection hopes being dashed then I think he’s going to make Saint Scotty of the Marketing’s life utterly miserable until the election is called. Maybe him, Pete Evans and Gordon Rennick could start their own party.

    The Government has no real message, so distractions are welcome.

    It disrupts any focus on an issue.

  17. The NYTimes on Kamala Harris casting her first tie-breaking vote….

    ‘But it was at 5:34 a.m., 95 minutes before the sun rose in Washington, that she broke the tie that mattered.

    “On this vote, the yeas are 50, the nays are 50,” she said. “The Senate being equally divided, the vice president votes in the affirmative and the concurrent resolution as amended is adopted.”

    There was no mistaking the weight of those words. They advanced a hugely impactful piece of legislation, of course. But they also signaled that for two years to come, the single most influential voice in the United States may be that of Ms. Harris declaring, in the stiltedly third-person language of Senate procedure, which way the vice president votes.

    As she pronounced the resolution adopted and slid her chair back from the desk, her eyes crinkled in what, behind two masks, was clearly a smile.’

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/05/us/joe-biden-trump-impeachment

  18. Someone should try and put this statement on Craig Kelly’s facebook page. 😀

    Dr Darren Saunders
    @whereisdaz

    Merck Statement on use of Ivermectin for COVID-19

  19. let’s hope sensitive Jim can grow into leadership Mavis. If Albo fails and sensitive Jim is not ready/capable – then it will be littlefinger !

  25. Marian Gedye
    @GedyeMarian
    ·
    9m
    Just been told a terrible story. Young woman on Indue had stillborn twins. Money for funeral was deposited to card. No funeral directors could be paid via Indue. Had to borrow from someone and pay them back by buying their groceries over time. If this is true over to you @AlboMP

  27. RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    · 13h
    Replying to @TimWilsonMP and @DougCameron51

    Do not go to Tim’s indexwebsite: homefirstsuperseconddotcom.

    Do not leave your details there.

    Tim Wilson will simply steal your details for his own electioneering purposes and/or sell your data back to the Liberal party.

    Please retweet or pass this on.

  28. citizen @ #1401 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 7:34 am

    Participating News Showcase publishers receive a set monthly fee for curating their articles for News Showcase, and in some cases for providing access to articles behind their paywall so that readers can see the value of becoming subscribers and publishers can build a relationship with readers.

    https://9to5google.com/2021/02/04/google-news-showcase-australia/ a website commentating on what Google does.

    This feels like an attempt by Google to become the news grocery store. Like ColesWorth it would give them leverage over the product providers.

  29. [‘Now, when it comes to the Folau comeback to the St George Illawarra Dragons madness of this week, no-one put it better than the redoubtable Ian Roberts, who asked the question that had to be asked.

    “At what point did someone at the Dragons think it would be a good idea to invite this shit-storm into their club? You are welcoming this hurricane of offal . . . Who thought this was a good idea? It’s mind-blowing.”] -SMH

    Roberts gets it right. Everywhere Folau goes, trouble follows.
    He’s played AFL, NRL, Rugger. What next soccer? He nearly broke Rugby Australia, and would most likely break the Dragons had he been contracted. If I were a sports’ administrator, I wouldn’t touch him with a barge pole.

  30. Lars Von Trier says: Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 10:22 am
    There you go again kronomex with the unhealthy Scott Morrison obsession.

    You are about as funny as a King Brown snake bite Lars. Your own obsession with with me leads me to think that you are secretly infatuated with me. I am sorry to let you down but you will have to worship me from afar, I don’t like you let alone love you.

  32. lizzie, I suspect that when the issues are complex and there are no easy answers some people resort to old habits or irrational behaviour to guide them through. That is, after all, the reason we have ‘culture’. It speeds up our responses to urgent matters in a chaotic world.

    But we can do better than that. We can work through all the pros and cons and come up with ideas that protect people and human and environmental assets.

    It really is a shame because that organisation has so much to offer. Their heart and soul , experience and effort, research and skills are all incredibly valuable. I just don’t get the reluctance to accept climate change as a factor in addressing the threat of fires. This is not 1770, the environment, the residential layout and the climate has changed. Techniques must change with it. Case by case, science and field experience led techniques.

  34. Lars Von Trier:

    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 10:26 am

    [‘let’s hope sensitive Jim can grow into leadership Mavis. If Albo fails and sensitive Jim is not ready/capable – then it will be littlefinger !’]

    Credit where credit’s due. I think Albanese has made a good start to the year, as has Chalmers. I trust great aunt Eunice is well.

  39. Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    ·
    46s
    For those confused about the respective roles of Commonwealth and States – of course it’s the States that have the manpower and facilities to deliver services on the ground.

    The key point is the Constitution gives the Commonwealth the power to determine the #COVID19 rules.
    ***
    So the Commonwealth has power to say, for example, “no one disembarks from #RubyPrincess until we say so”, or no one may leave home unless they are wearing a mask.
    ***
    It is in his failure to set the rules, and his pretence that he can do nothing unless all Premiers agree, that #ScottyFromMarketing has been an abject failure in relation to #COVID19

  40. Further, on fire management —

    1. It’s fairly obvious that some landscapes rarely experienced fire in any form.

    Mountain ashes, for example, take well over a decade before regrowth produces seed, so if fires happened more frequently than (say) once every twenty years, the forests would not have survived. Yet we currently conduct fire reduction burns in these forests.

    Similarly, snow gums don’t regenerate well after fire, suggesting that they rarely encountered it pre colonisation. Again, there are calls for alpine areas to be included in fire reduction burns.

    2. Climate change has another significant implication – fire regimes which were once relevant to an area may not be relevant now. So knowledge of how an indigenous society used fire in an area a century ago might not be helpful now.

  41. Bert:

    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 10:48 am

    Thanks for the link. Gout is stigmatised as a complaint of the
    overindulgent. In my case, I had my first attack at around 20.
    I didn’t drink at that age nor eat rich food. I went to A &E about a month ago and was given an injection of cortisone and
    that resulted in almost instant relief. It really is a most painful
    condition.

  42. ‘There is real teeth to this’: Legal experts weigh in on Smartmatic’s $2.7 billion lawsuit against Fox News

    “This is the definition of defamation.”

    That’s what CNN senior legal analyst Laura Coates told Erin Burnett Thursday night when discussing Smartmatic’s $2.7 billion defamation lawsuit against Fox News, three of the network’s hosts (Lou Dobbs, Maria Bartiromo, and Jeanine Pirro), Rudy Giuliani, and Sidney Powell.

    “When you are making statements that are knowingly false, and you make them with malice, and you actually tarnish reputations and it has a financial consequence — that’s why you have defamation lawsuits in the first place,” Coates said, explaining the seriousness of the lawsuit.

    Coates is not alone in believing Smartmatic’s suit poses real threat to Fox. University of Georgia media law professor Jonathan Peters noted on Twitter that “libel law makes it difficult to prevail where the plaintiff is a public figure and/or where the speech involved a matter of public concern. In various ways, these will be key issues in litigation.” But, Peters added that he believed the “smart money” is on Smartmatic.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/05/media/smartmatic-fox-news-reliable-sources/index.html

  44. Bert @ #1487 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 9:48 am

    A few people were chatting about gout last night and this turned up in The Conversation this morning
    https://theconversation.com/the-disease-of-kings-1-in-20-australians-get-gout-heres-how-to-manage-it-151759

    Thank you Bert. I caution though that individual cases will vary.

    You should ice and raise the affected joint and minimise contact with it — even a light bedsheet can cause excruciating pain.

    Yep to the pain. Panting helps. But heat (as hot as I can bear) works best for me. (I keep an esky topped up with boiling water close by.) Cold intensifies and lengthens the attack.

    You might also consider minimising consumption of purine-rich foods, which include meat, seafood and yeast products, like Vegemite.

    Meat and seafood don’t bother me but vegemite and beer are no nos.

    I’ve learned to recognise the onset of an attack and get in early with heat and a couple ibuprofen. That usually gets me through the night.

  46. sprocket_ @ #1459 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 10:24 am

    The NYTimes on Kamala Harris casting her first tie-breaking vote….

    ‘But it was at 5:34 a.m., 95 minutes before the sun rose in Washington, that she broke the tie that mattered.

    “On this vote, the yeas are 50, the nays are 50,” she said. “The Senate being equally divided, the vice president votes in the affirmative and the concurrent resolution as amended is adopted.”

    There was no mistaking the weight of those words. They advanced a hugely impactful piece of legislation, of course. But they also signaled that for two years to come, the single most influential voice in the United States may be that of Ms. Harris declaring, in the stiltedly third-person language of Senate procedure, which way the vice president votes.

    As she pronounced the resolution adopted and slid her chair back from the desk, her eyes crinkled in what, behind two masks, was clearly a smile.’

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/05/us/joe-biden-trump-impeachment

    Well done Dems.

  50. As a long term gout sufferer I have managed it with a daily Allipurinol tablet.

    I also have the anti-inflammatory Indocid on standby.

    From experience I can feel the early onset of a gout attack and immediately take the prescribed dose of Indocid.

    If you feel the attack coming on it is important to take the Indocid dose as soon as possible ie if it’s 1:00am then get out of bed and do it.

    Don’t wait until morning as it will be too late and you will have a full blown attack.

    I always have a couple of Indocid capsules handy at work, in the glove box of the car and when travelling.

    Usually a day or two of Indocid stops the attack.

    Following this method I can eat and drink what I like.

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