Slowing the flow

A detailed look at what optional preferential voting might mean at a federal election.

This post delves into wonkish matters arising from last week’s report by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters into last year’s federal election, and can thus be seen as a sequel to my earlier post on that subject. That post has a stimulating comments thread that I would like to see continue if anyone has anything to contribute specifically concerning the matters covered in this post. However, the comments thread below this post will serve as the usual open thread for general political discussion, it being past time for a new one.

On with the show. Among the more surprising recommendations of last week’s JSCEM report was the introduction of optional preferential voting. Whereas committee recommendations very often die on the vine, the chances of something becoming of this one shortened last week when both One Nation and the Centre Alliance indicated it would have their support, potentially giving it the numbers in the Senate over the opposition of Labor and the Greens. This prompted me to dig into data from last year’s state election in New South Wales, which offers the most proximate and generally useful pointer to how such a reform would play out at a federal election.

The New South Wales Electoral Commission is the only electoral authority that conducts full data entry of lower house ballot papers and publishes all the data, something the AEC only does for the Senate. The broader utility of this has been limited by the fact of New South Wales’ peculiarity of optional preferential voting, but as noted, there is a chance that may shortly change. I have aggregated this data to determine how each party and candidate’s preferences flowed between the Coalition and Labor, which no one else had done so far as I could see.

For those with a professional interest, this spreadsheet lays it all out seat by seat and party by party — for the lay person, the following table should suffice. It shows the aggregated statewide results from the state election, inclusive of the rate of exhaustion (i.e. voters who availed themselves of optional preferential’s opportunity to number neither Coalition nor Labor boxes), and the equivalent results from New South Wales from the federal election.

The reform’s attraction to the Coalition lies in the 40.0% exhaustion rate for the Greens vote, which split 82.2-17.8 in Labor’s favour federally. That alone would have sliced nearly 1% from Labor’s two-party preferred vote. However, the high exhaustion rate among all other minor parties, whose preferences in aggregate tend to favour the Coalition over Labor (think Hanson, Palmer and the religious parties) would have pared that back by around 0.3%. Such a change would probably have made a decisive difference in Macquarie (which Labor held by 0.2%) and Lilley (0.6%, and with an above-par Greens primary vote of 14.0%), and made life still more uncomfortable in Cowan (0.8%) and Eden-Monaro (0.8%, followed by 0.4% at the by-election).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,329 comments on “Slowing the flow”

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  3. Good morning all.
    Thanks BH I admire you from afar. Santa has been good to me. Just now patrolling in my slow speed walkabout, beneath a gorgeous bottle brush tree just outside my fence – where the lorikeets gather to raucous their way through breakfast – was an excellent collection of quality matials – including old wrapping paper, an almost destroyed handbag, some foam packaging and assorted rubbish.

    Hot damn. Could Smoko have arranged this benevolence. Has the tide turned. Time will tell I guess.

    I’m receptive to offers. Bid now, You know you want to ❗

    As to the Arsehole of the Year. I suggests that

    also alleged human being, has got to be in with a show.

    Thanks BK for the work you do producing the Dawn Patrol. 😍

  6. That looks like a Kim Kardashian bag, KayJay. Lucky you! 😆
    Merry Christmas. Again!

    (Honestly, I just love the animated trees and you are giving me a very good reason to keep putting them up. To remind us how lucky we are to have you here for Xmas. 🙂 )

  8. What a ‘surprise’.

    Taxes
    Fifty Years of Tax Cuts for Rich Didn’t Trickle Down, Study Says

    The paper, by David Hope of the London School of Economics and Julian Limberg of King’s College London, found that such measures over the last 50 years only really benefited the individuals who were directly affected, and did little to promote jobs or growth.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-16/fifty-years-of-tax-cuts-for-rich-didn-t-trickle-down-study-says

  10. And, of course, Merry Christmas to Mr Bowe, without whom the blog wouldn’t exist at all and we would have to spend our days shouting at the TV instead if it didn’t. 🙂

  13. Americans ‘steaming’ with rage as Trump golfs and the GOP leaves the country to die

    The White House released the president’s schedule for Christmas Eve saying that he would be working “tirelessly for the American people.” But what that has actually turned into is something else.

    After vetoing the defense spending bill, which included a raise for military service members, and threatening to veto the COVID-19 stimulus and 2021 budget, Trump fled to Florida to golf. For months, the White House has negotiated the stimulus bill and Trump’s budget, but at the last minute, the president decided he wanted to throw it all out the window.

    Instead of doing his part to help get a bill that satisfied him, Trump flew to Florida and went golfing.

    It led many on Twitter to call the president out for destroying the lives of Americans who need any stimulus money, service members counting on their raise, and government workers who may end up unemployed during another shutdown.

    https://www.rawstory.com/trump-golfs-while-amereica-dies/

  15. About to collect the rubbish outside my fence – and – what’s that sound – dammit its pissing down. Well the BOM predicted 50% chance of rains so gawd knows what the other 50% will look like.

    My lilies are showing nicely and one of the old time nurse friends from long ago is in town (from Melbourne) to help me admire them (tomorrow).

  16. Pentagon officials holding ‘secret contingency’ meetings over fears Trump will incite violence: report

    On Thursday, Newsweek reported that military officials are discussing their options in the event that outgoing President Donald Trump triggers civil unrest to try to prevent the peaceful transition of power.

    “A half-dozen officers in similar positions agree that while there is zero chance that the uniformed leadership would involve itself in any scheme to create an election-related reversal, they worry that the military could get sucked into a crisis of Trump’s making, particularly if the president tries to rally private militias and pro-Trump paramilitaries in an effort to disrupt the transition and bring violence to the capital,” continued the report.

    A retired judge advocate general said, “Right now, because of coronavirus, the president actually has unprecedented emergency powers, ones that might convince him — particularly if he listens to certain of his supporters — that he has unlimited powers and is above the law.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/trump-martial-law-2649637802/

  17. I believe Morrison has given his Christmas message. I haven’t seen it, but he quoted “let us not grow weary of doing good”.

    Such hypocrisy.

  18. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  19. phoenixRED,
    Did you hear why Trump vetoed the Bills?
    1. Because the Republicans didn’t support his anti-democratic election-overturning efforts enough, and
    2. Because Congress and especially the Democrats, refused to support Ivanka Trump’s desire to have her supported by the American taxpayers as she swans around the world building her profile:

    With an unusual burst of bipartisan end-of-the-year goodwill, Congress nearly passed, after a 20-year hiatus, a State Department authorization bill this month. But then something happened to torpedo the effort in the final days.

    The torpedo was Ivanka Trump.

    The officers trying to save the ship from the torpedo were Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H.

    And the two lawmakers, rather than cave to the attack from the White House, threw out the anchors, absorbed the explosion and watched as the State Department authorization bill was scuttled by the Senate and detached from the bigger annual defense policy bill, just to appease the president’s daughter and the White House.

    …Said a Democratic aide familiar with the contretemps, who was not authorized to be named: “Instead of the White House just acknowledging they are biting off more than anyone could chew, they just had a temper tantrum and State Authorization had to come out. Ultimately, that got flushed down the toilet, as we say colloquially, ‘because Ivanka didn’t get her pony.’”

    https://www.rollcall.com/2020/12/23/congress-ditches-state-department-bill-after-fight-with-ivanka-trump/

  20. And here we have the contrast – Ardern’s “politics of kindness”.

    Now, as the year ends, even rightwing political commentators are singing Ardern’s praises. It’s as if she is the centrist politician they wish was leading the National party. They want to claim Ardern as a fellow conservative.

    This isn’t to say there is nothing progressive about Ardern, or that she is rightwing. She might be on the right of the Labour party, and she might have adopted many of National’s policies and approaches, but she does something that her opponents seemingly can’t emulate: espouse compassion as part of her conservatism. Her self-declared “politics of kindness” isn’t particularly revolutionary, nor even very tangible, but it rings completely true to those who have seen Ardern navigate the nation’s crises.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/25/the-secret-of-jacinda-arderns-success-lies-in-her-conservatism?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1608838189

  23. Tony Windsor
    @TonyHWindsor
    · 10h
    There is something very wrong with democracy when the President of the United States of America pardons murderers, thieves and thugs …also something wrong when our Prime Minister accepts a “global leadership” award from this creature.
    Jesus would weep and so should we all.

  30. lizzie says: Friday, December 25, 2020 at 7:46 am
    I believe Morrison has given his Christmas message. I haven’t seen it, but he quoted “let us not grow weary of doing good”.

    “And I want to pass my bestest Christmas wishes on to Rupert and Gina and Clive and Twiggy and Channel 9 and Kerry and all the terrific corporations and 1%’ers who have worked tirelessly to keep their favouritest political party in power. Kiss, kiss.”

  32. The Age
    @theage
    ·
    2m
    Victoria has recorded no new cases of COVID-19 on Christmas Day, after more than 11,000 tests were conducted on Christmas Eve. @rachael_dexter reports.

  33. lizzie
    And another quote from thd PM with 24/7 image consultant on hand
    “resolve to share those blessing with others.”
    American evangelism at its best!
    And adds “we shall reap the benefits”
    As ths PM puts another “log” on the China fire.
    All we got for Christmas is more disingenuous bullshit.

    But on a better note…. we got a mist for Christmas.
    Misty Christmas all.

  34. Goll

    It seems a little strange (but obviously wonderful) not to hear of raging fires at Christmas. So much tragedy often happens at the turn of the year.

  39. Fascinating article about Tony Abbott’s mate, Viktor Orban in Hungary, with a killer opening paragraph that could apply equally here to Morrison and his Coalition government:

    From Russia to Turkey to Hungary, the power of authoritarians reflects the weakness and dysfunction of their opponents. While often a result of government repression, the inability of the opposition to get its act together is sometimes self-inflicted and driven by the narcissism of small differences, political disagreements that may have mattered in earlier times but are irrelevant to the defeat of the local strongman.

    https://thebulwark.com/the-broad-coalition-uniting-to-try-to-take-down-viktor-orban/

  44. Merry Christmas to all. And happy festivus to our friends of other creeds who are celebrating important occasions, religious and otherwise. Bondi Junction is decorated wit some lovely menorahs at the moment.

    I have been only seeing the Dawn Patrol for the last few weeks, due to being a bit busy.

    Kay Jay, it is so good that you are out of hospital, and your Lillies look lovely.

    A big thank you to William and BK for the blog and the Dawn Patrol respectively, and many thanks to the regular posters who make it such and interesting place, and all the lurkers who come in occasionally not shake things up with new perspectives.

    Off to finish making Christmas lunch.

  45. OMG.

    Sky News Australia
    @SkyNewsAust
    ·
    12h
    Liberal MP @JasonFalinskiMP
    says it is not surprising the COVID-19 testing numbers in New South Wales are so high because the state government treats adults like adults rather than inmates, and people reciprocate that trust.

  47. C@tmomma @ #3218 Friday, December 25th, 2020 – 4:49 am

    phoenixRED,
    Did you hear why Trump vetoed the Bills?
    1. Because the Republicans didn’t support his anti-democratic election-overturning efforts enough, and
    2. Because Congress and especially the Democrats, refused to support Ivanka Trump’s desire to have her supported by the American taxpayers as she swans around the world building her profile:

    With an unusual burst of bipartisan end-of-the-year goodwill, Congress nearly passed, after a 20-year hiatus, a State Department authorization bill this month. But then something happened to torpedo the effort in the final days.

    The torpedo was Ivanka Trump.

    The officers trying to save the ship from the torpedo were Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H.

    And the two lawmakers, rather than cave to the attack from the White House, threw out the anchors, absorbed the explosion and watched as the State Department authorization bill was scuttled by the Senate and detached from the bigger annual defense policy bill, just to appease the president’s daughter and the White House.

    …Said a Democratic aide familiar with the contretemps, who was not authorized to be named: “Instead of the White House just acknowledging they are biting off more than anyone could chew, they just had a temper tantrum and State Authorization had to come out. Ultimately, that got flushed down the toilet, as we say colloquially, ‘because Ivanka didn’t get her pony.’”

    https://www.rollcall.com/2020/12/23/congress-ditches-state-department-bill-after-fight-with-ivanka-trump/

    So Ivanka to run as Trumps VP in 2024 and then for Pres in 2028, if daddy isn’t well enough to take his rightful third term?

  48. Interesting rumour coming out of America that Donald Trump is also going to pardon Julian Assange and Edward Snowden. 😯

    I know Assange hasn’t been convicted in America yet but these things can be pre-emptive I believe.

  49. NSW is again expected to announce single-digit COVID-19 case numbers today, with a new record number of tests carried out on Thursday, a source familiar with the figures said.

    Test numbers for Thursday are expected to surpass the record 60,184 tests that were reported to 8pm on Wednesday.

    Yesterday, Premier Gladys Berejiklian thanked those who got tested for coming forward but said the state was “far from out of the woods”.

    “In fact, we have to be extra vigilant over the next few days,” she said.

    The Premier will address the media at 11am (AEDT) so stay tuned

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-northern-beaches-covid-19-cluster-grows-amid-fears-of-new-cluster-in-cbd-20201225-p56q3o.html

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