Essential Research: leadership ratings, foreign and industrial relations

Some gloss comes off Scott Morrison’s still impressive personal ratings, and respondents prove broadly favourable to the government’s handling of disputes with China.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which is presumably the last of the year, features the pollster’s monthly-or-so leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is down four on approval to 62%, his weakest result since April, and up three on disapproval to 28%; Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 43% and down four on disapproval to 29%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 50-24, narrowing from 53-24.

As it does at the end of every year, the pollster asked respondents if they felt it had been a good or a bad year for various actors, which produces appropriately extraordinary results, particularly so for the Australian economy (a net rating of minus 47%), small business (minus 43%) and “the average Australian” (minus 32%). However, the minus 7% result for “Australian politics in general” was quite a lot better than any recorded over the previous seven years.

Respondents were also asked if Australia’s relationships with various foreign players should become more or less closer, or remain the same. This produces a notably negative result for China, with 49% wanting a less close relationship, 15% more close and 20% the same. Closer relationships are generally desired with, in descending order, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the European Union. Sixty-two per cent considered Australia “the innocent victim of Chinese assertion in restricting trade on certain products, but a non-trivial 38% felt Australia had “made itself a target by publicly criticising the Chinese government”. Fifty-six per cent felt Scott Morrison was right to demand an apology from the Chinese government over the recent Twitter spat, leaving 44% of respondents (the smart ones) favouring the alternative that he “should have let the issue be handled
through diplomatic channels”.

A question on the federal government’s proposed workplace relations reforms finds 52% expecting they will favour employers and businesses, 17% that they will favour employees, and 31% that they will strike a balance between the two. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1071.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

844 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, foreign and industrial relations”

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  1. Just been on ABC watching the report from the NSW Health Minister and his Medical Officer and suddenly there is not too much talk about “Gold Standard NSW” and words of advice to WA on how to do things. I wish all NSW people good health but may the politicians who were gloating not so many weeks ago, remain on camera with their faces lined with worry. They may think twice now (including “Come Out From Under the Doona” Morrison) before shooting their political mouths off……..

  2. Josh Frydenberg is speaking now on the mid-year budget update, is positively glowing
    “The unemployment rate is expected to recover to pre-COVID levels in around four years.”

    I’m the best Treasurer evah!

  3. Has Frydenberg forgotten that the number of available jobs per one unemployed person pre-Covid was not exactly causing dancing in the streets.

  4. Hm. Judging by the emerging RSL trail, starting at Avalon on 11 Dec, the Northern Beaches outbreak may have been the muso in the mosh pit with the oral contact, rather than delinquent travelers after all. I wonder if any of the current crop shared an instrument. Genomics through tonight, apparently.

  5. A PhD on Newscorp. Yoohoo!

    Paddy Manning@gpaddymanning
    Some news: after three great years working with @NickFeik@sjfarq and the crew I’m moving on from writing The Monthly Today, to do a PhD on the history of @newscorpaus
    supervised by the legendary @BGriffenFoley at @Macquarie_Uni

    ***
    I’ll still be writing for @THEMONTHLY @SatPaper focussing on politics + business investigations and elsewhere, and teaching journalism on the side
    ***
    …but for now it’s head down on “Sly Fox”, my unauthorised biography of Lachlan Murdoch for
    @BlackIncBooks
    https://blackincbooks.com.au/news/black-inc-publish-lachlan-murdoch-biography … see you all in 2021

  6. We’ve just has a severe thunderstorm warning, yet it’s absolutely calm here atm. Waiting is almost worse than when it arrives unexpectedly.

  7. From the News.com.au website:


    All eyes are on NSW as the virus cluster in Sydney grows.

    _____________________________
    Oh, they’re talking about Covid, not the Liberals in NSW…

  8. I’ve just has a call from Telstra???? telling me something about my password has been changed from a private connection to a public one and was being used….. I couldn’t understand what the man was saying I had to do, and rang off. Is this a scam?

  9. Thanks, Vic.
    I asked him three times to speak more slowly and clearly and then rang off. He sounded a bit annoyed. Chuckle.
    My phone’s now off the hook. (And there’s an old-fashioned expression!)

  10. What a brilliant photo. Head Prefect AP looking very smug after dobbing Gladys in to Principal Dan. Gladys knows she’s in for a bollocking.

    No idea what the other bloke’s doing there.

  11. Alpha Zero

    “All eyes are on NSW as the virus cluster in Sydney grows.”

    Is that the corruption cluster? Do Federal Ministers like Angus Taylor count as in or out of the NSW corruption bubble?

  12. lizzie @ #504 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 1:28 pm

    Josh Frydenberg is speaking now on the mid-year budget update, is positively glowing
    “The unemployment rate is expected to recover to pre-COVID levels in around four years.”

    I’m the best Treasurer evah!

    It never went up during the GFC (or only marginally and then down, down, down again), when Labor were in power. Just sayin’.

  13. Abe Carr’s spot on in his ‘global’ letter to OECD countries resisting the well-known climate denialist Cormann’s job application. And although convention, Labor made the wrong decision by supporting him. It would be extremely surprising if Matty gets the gig, as it would signal that OECD member countries aren’t serious about addressing global heating – Australia certainly isn’t. When his jolly’s over and he gets the bad news,
    it’ll be of interest to know how much it cost the taxpayer. And it must be said, by backing Cormann, Labor will hardly be in a position to complain.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/bob-carr-pens-global-letter-that-highlights-government-s-resistance-to-climate-change-20201216-p56o2l.html

  14. Finally, somebody prints the ugly truth of the appalling management culture and staff treatment at Adelaide Uni. From colleagues interstate it is by no means the only one.
    https://indaily.com.au/news/2020/12/17/bullying-and-harassment-are-rife-in-my-workplace-adelaide-uni-staff-raise-red-flags/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=INDAILY%20December%2017%202020&utm_content=INDAILY%20December%2017%202020+CID_7d7a003d269f530751a6dfac7b2f7063&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=READ%20MORE

    The only shock should be why we haven’t already had a royal commission into Australian Universities to expose the nepotism, waste, insane bureaucracy and abuses of power.

    Both major parties are guilty of the policy decisions that led to this mess, one more than the other. To paraphrase Wellesley – Liberal tertiary education policy is the only thing more terrible than Labor education policy.

  15. Taylormade @ #494 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 1:03 pm

    The Age. 17/12
    A former gaming minister says Victoria has been humiliated by revelations of money laundering at Crown Melbourne via a NSW public inquiry into the casino group, and the state needs a stronger gambling watchdog to ensure it does not happen again.

    Tony Robinson, who was gaming minister in John Brumby’s Labor government from 2007 to 2010, said he hoped Victoria was “never again in a position where untoward things are happening under our very noses and it takes an interstate regulator to blow the whistle”.

    “That’s highly embarrassing to the state of Victoria,” he said.
    ________________
    It is terribly embarrassing for the Andrews govt.
    All our regulators and wathdogs are bloody useless at the moment. Andrews needs to have a good think over the Christmas break on how to restore proper governance to this once great state.

    Um, you do know about all the money laundering in Coalition-governed NSW, don’t you? You know, the stuff that inspired the NSW Inquiry. 😀

  16. Vogon Poet @ #410 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 10:19 am

    Scomo has taken up Oakies challenge:

    Meanwhile, prime minister Scott Morrison has also said that borders should remain open, when asked whether these new NSW cases could prompt border closures.

    “Australia is open again, and Australians like that,” he says.

    He adds that people will work hard to “keep it that way”.

    “NSW is the gold standard, I don’t spend too much time worrying about NSW.”

    Thankfully border closures are a matter for the state Governments, not SfM.

  17. This out of context comment on The Guardian is general enough to be worth repeating here.

    It is a basic tenet of right-wingers that poor people only work harder if they get less money, but rich people only work at all if they get more money.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/16/theatre-of-the-absurd-as-boris-tells-country-obey-the-rules-dont-obey-the-rules#comment-146080886

    And the belief is supported by the disingenuous concepts of pay as a reward and pay for merit, both of which are judged by the boss not the worker.

  18. Socrates @ #525 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 2:13 pm

    The time is soon coming when Industry super funds are going to have to come clean about how much money they have invested in coal mines and power plants. Neither of mine will tell me. Their job is not to be a financial life support system to miners. They are supposed to protect members savings.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-17/bluewaters-coal-fired-power-station-written-off-books/12990532

    The fossil fuel cartel is a broad church.

    It’s up to voters to remove the cartel members from federal parliament, so Australia can move forward.

  19. Socrates @ #525 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 1:13 pm

    The time is soon coming when Industry super funds are going to have to come clean about how much money they have invested in coal mines and power plants. Neither of mine will tell me. Their job is not to be a financial life support system to miners. They are supposed to protect members savings.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-17/bluewaters-coal-fired-power-station-written-off-books/12990532

    There are ethical super funds available. This is one that I looked at earlier this year when AMP got too far up my nose. https://www.australianethical.com.au/
    (I receive no kick backs, financial or otherwise from these guys.)

    EDIT: fixed the parenthesis

  20. CNN: The United States reported at least 3,486 coronavirus deaths on Wednesday, the highest number of new deaths in a single day since the pandemic began.

    ( Today in the US – 246,996 new cases and 3,486 new deaths in the United States )

    ( US Totals now – Coronavirus Cases: 17,392,618 – Deaths: 314,577 )

  21. Another Sydney resident tests positive for C.19, bringing the number to 5,
    while Palaszczuk’s going to wait 24 hours before making a decision on
    border closures.

  22. Spray @ #526 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 1:46 pm

    Having done this drive several hundred times over the last forty or fifty years, I can only say “good”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-17/pacific-highway-urgrade-finally-finished/12988488

    At what price Spray? Huge resources, huge costs, lining pockets of a few construction companies, loss of valuable and often rare ecosystems….
    Sure, that drive was a nightmare. And yes, people died on that road. But in the end, was a mega freeway the best option?

    So many spots along that route that will now be far more accessible from Sydney/Brisbane. I can see that as good… and bad.

  23. Why do all the states have to close to any state with community transmission. Surely a more effective strategy would be for the state with transition to be locked and the rest of the country could continue to function.
    One of the reasons McGowan took so long o open borders is the chance that someone from a hot spot,could travel to another region and then hop the border. If NSW was effectively shut off, with no one allowed to exit then all other states could benefit.

  24. boerwar @ #466 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 11:08 am

    My point was that he was somewhat of a risky appointment given his lack of significant management experience.

    Just to give you a sense of the management jump, Indianapolis has a budget of $1.3 billion and a staff of 7500. Transport has a budget of $76 billion and 55,000 staff.

    Realistically though, how many people out there have relevant experience at levels substantially above the $1.3 billion / 7500 staff threshold?

    Unless you’re going to recycle appointees from previous administrations or try to poach the CEO of Google Alphabet or some comparable mega-corporation, there doesn’t seem to be a huge pool of experienced candidates to pull from. And if you are going to recycle or poach from Corporate America the quality of what you’re getting tends to be questionable anyways. How many C-suiters hold their positions for reasons other than individual merit/skill? More than a few.

    To a certain extent any appointment is risky, because (for the vast majority of people) it’s really not the sort of gig you can gradually work your way towards over time. You’re either going to have some innate level of aptitude for the task that’ll help carry you through, or you’re not.

  25. Assantdj

    Had we already normalised the practice of automatically (rapid) testing every single person who takes a plane, this outbreak in Sydney would be a lot lower threat to the other states.

  26. I saw a brief minute of Scotty at the presser. I believe he talked of the other states “faltering”. I’m not sure what Q he was asked, but he had no smirk and his eyelids fluttered as he spoke, which is said to be a sign of lying or uncertainty.

  27. I agree with SK. If all the Pacific Highway upgrade was about was safety a Swedish style 3 lane with with wire rope barriers would have done the job for a quarter of the cost, and years sooner (saving more lives). The project was cul-de-saced years ago and led down the path of assisting coastal subdividers. The traffic volume does not warrant four lanes except within coastal cities, north of Tweed Heads, and south of Newcastle.

    I’d love to see somebody publish a post-hoc BCR analysis of the project outcomes. Neither side would want to.

  28. Tricot

    You can see now why, despite the number of days without a case, I wasn’t prepared to declare victory.

    It annoys me no end the hubris that contact tracing will solve everything. It works well when there are 20,000+ tests a day. It works well when the contact scenarios involve a small group of people. But now we’re dealing with low rates of testing and entire RSLs. Lets see how the “gold standard” fares.

    Time to re-introduce some restrictions. Lets see if Gladys has the balls.

  29. Interesting development for those who want to see Trump behind bars.

    New York Attorney General Tish James has a message for Trump: “I wrote a letter to the White House today to remind the Trump administration that it must preserve and maintain all presidential records. By law, every bit of this information belongs to the American people, and this president and the White House cannot deprive them of it.”

    Palmer goes on to say this is about leverage over WH staff and Trump and his kid’s actions in the WH.

    https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/new-york-attorney-general-targets-donald-trump-for-his-white-house-crimes/34851/

  30. Are we assuming this is an outbreak from external source? Is it possible/likely the Sydney virus just went to ground for a month or so?

  31. rhwombat

    Here’s a guessing competition for you.

    Does the current outbreak spring from one of the recent quarantine outbreaks? Or does it trace back to cases that were logged over a month ago (and therefore multiple intermediaries)?

    Unfortunately my money is on “we’ll never know”.

  32. I would have to say that even Kevin Rudd, despite his clear deficiencies, failings and inarguable inadequacies as PM, was a better PM than Scott Morrison.

    Tony Abbott is, by the length of the Flemington straight, THE worst PM in our history. Morrison is the second worst.

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