US election late counting

What will Biden’s final popular vote margin be, will he win Arizona and Georgia, and what will the final House result be? Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

1:00pm Wednesday Dave Wasserman’s current House count is 221 Democrats, 209 Republicans and five undecided. In four of the undecided races, Republicans lead, but there’s some hope for Democrats in New York’s 22nd. At the 2018 midterms, Democrats won the House by a 235-200 margin.

Biden now leads Trump in the popular vote by 50.9% to 47.2% with up to 1.8 million New York mail votes still to be counted. These will be very pro-Biden.

2:30pm Monday November 16 If anyone’s still following this thread, I’ve published a Conversation article about Biden’s narrow margin in the Electoral College tipping-point state (Wisconsin), and about explanations for why the polls understated Trump again. It’s plausible that coronavirus was a factor, because those who followed medical advice to stay home were more likely to respond to polls and be Democrats.

2:25pm In final Arizona results, Biden defeated Trump by 10,377 votes or 0.30%.

11:48am Sunday I posted yesterday about how Biden only won the “tipping-point” state by 0.6% despite his 306-232 Electoral College win, but it appears that post was lost with the site’s problems.

Democrats lead in the House by 218-203 with 14 seats uncalled. Eight of the uncalled races are in New York, where mail counting has been very slow. Mail votes will be very strong for Democrats, and they will win the three seats where they currently lead. Dave Wasserman thinks the Dem in New York’s 22nd has a real chance of overcoming the Rep’s lead once all mail is counted.

3:40pm Arizona CALLED for Biden after he won the latest batch of Maricopa county votes. He leads Trump by over 11,400 votes or 0.34%. That call takes Biden to a 290-217 Electoral College lead. The final two states, Georgia and North Carolina, will go to Biden and Trump respectively. Biden will win the Electoral College by 306-232.

3:00pm Friday In the past, late counting in states such as California and Arizona has been better for Democrats than election night results. The early mail has been pro-Republican, but the late mail has been better for Democrats. This election, it’s clear that Democrats were much keener to vote early, and so the normal pattern has been reversed. That’s why Fox News and the AP called Arizona prematurely.

There’s now a big scare for Democrats in New Jersey’s seventh district. The Republican is within 6,300 votes with almost 39,000 remaining. The Rep has been winning late counted votes by big enough margins to put the Dem in jeopardy. Dems will still retain a narrow House majority, but it’s way below expectations.

2:30pm Trump won a batch of 13,000 Maricopa county, Arizona votes by 9%, but there just aren’t enough votes left for him to overcome his current 11,600+ vote deficit in Arizona. Dave Wasserman has called it for Biden.

11:30am Thursday Both the Alaska and North Carolina Senate races were CALLED for Republicans today, taking them to a 50-48 lead with two Georgia runoffs on January 5. Alaska was also called for Trump, with North Carolina to follow soon.

5:00pm Biden currently leads in the national popular vote by over five million votes (50.8% to 47.4%).

4:57pm Democrats are just over the majority mark in the House, and lead Republicans by 218-201 with 16 still uncalled. Dave Wasserman sees it as 222 Democrats, 206 Republicans and seven undecided. Democrats are currently trailing in all seven undecided seats, but may be able to save one or two.

4:47pm In the Alaska Senate contest, the Republican is still up by 58-36 with 75% in. Mail was added today, but it didn’t break heavily Democratic enough. This will soone be called for the Republicans, as will the North Carolina Senate.

4:45pm Biden’s lead in Georgia (14,100 votes) is now greater than his lead in Arizona (12,800), though in percentage terms the Arizona lead is still bigger (0.38% vs 0.28%). I think there are under 50,000 votes left to count in Arizona.

10:45am Wednesday Biden’s lead over 12,600 in Georgia and 14,200 in Arizona.

2:07pm Biden currently leads Trump by 50.7% to 47.5% in the popular vote tracker. Democrats lead by 216-198 in the House with 21 races still uncalled.

1:38PM Trump won today’s batch of over 6k Maricopa county votes by 50-48. Biden maintains a lead just under 15,000 in Arizona. Meanwhile, Biden has extended his Georgia lead beyond 12,000 votes (0.25%).

11:50am Biden’s Arizona lead now under 15,000.

10:25am Tuesday Biden now leads by over 11,400 votes or 0.23% in Georgia and by 15,400 or 0.46% in Arizona. Biden’s lead has stretched to 2.7% in Nevada and to 0.67% in Pennsylvania.

11:06am Biden’s Arizona lead below 17,000 after a batch of about 13,500 votes from the pro-Trump Pinal county. But Pinal is likely almost finished counting.

10:35am Provisionals are padding Biden’s Georgia lead, now over 10,300 or 0.2%. In Pennsylvania, he leads by over 43,000. In Nevada, he leads by 2.4%.

10:30am Monday Biden’s lead in Arizona back over 20,000 votes after he won the latest batch from Maricopa county. This was a small batch of under 7,000 votes that split to Biden by 55-44. Provisionals, which are counted last, are probably much better for Biden than the late mail votes. Biden is very likely to win Arizona now.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Cook Political analyst Dave Wasserman has an excellent graphic for following the national presidential popular vote. As of Sunday afternoon, it had Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 50.7% to 47.6%. That lead is certain to stretch over the coming weeks as there are far more votes left to be counted in Democratic strongholds like California and New York.

A related question is how far the Electoral College “tipping-point” state was from the national popular vote. With Biden’s lead dropping in Arizona even as it expands in Pennsylvania, it appears that Wisconsin will be the state that gave him 270 Electoral Votes. Biden only won Wisconsin by 0.6%, so it is already 2.5 points more favourable to Trump than nationally, and that gap will stretch further.

In Arizona, Biden’s lead is under 19,000 votes or 0.6% with 97% counted. While early mail ballots were pro-Biden, late mail is pro-Trump. Will Biden hold onto his lead? In Georgia, Biden now has a lead of over 9,000 or 0.2% with almost all votes counted. It is very unlikely that a recount will change that race. Trump will almost certainly win the other two uncalled states, North Carolina and Alaska.

Republicans will also almost certainly win the uncalled Senate races in North Carolina and Alaska, for a 50-48 Senate lead. Both Georgia Senate races are going to January 5 runoffs. Democrats would need to win both to tie the Senate at 50-50 and give Kamala Harris the casting vote.

Democrats lead in the House by 215 to 196 with 24 races uncalled. Eight of the uncalled races are in New York, where mail votes have not been counted and are likely to heavily favour Democrats. Republicans have gained a net of five House seats so far.

265 comments on “US election late counting”

Comments Page 3 of 6
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  1. Kronomex @ #98 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 4:09 pm

    The Donald seems to be rapidly turning into the deranged ranting uncle in the basement that the family tries to ignore and hope that lock on the door holds out.

    A figure full of anger, fear, childish petulance and no substance.

    You remind me of the “crazy uncle” tag he was handed during the campaign period. Perhaps it bit.

  2. On a slightly different tack, I have spotted my first “What will the first lady do?” pieces.
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/could-jill-biden-transform-the-role-of-first-lady-of-the-united-states
    Within the first few sentences I learn her age, that she’s got a proper job already, and that I need to ask how she will cope now that she’s got two jobs. It goes on to praise her and then praise her some more. Just personally, I’m far more interested in Biden’s political partner, VP-elect Harris, and what she will bring to the job. Sigh.

  3. Biden won the popular vote by a few million thanks to big majorities in places like California. He could lose a million votes there and it’d have less of an effect than losing 50,000 votes in Wisconsin.

    What would the numbers look like if all states divvied up their electoral votes the way Maine and Nebraska do? (Probably the closest comparison to Australia.) My guess would be Biden wins, but doing it that way would have seen Mitt Romney win in 2012, in the same way John Howard won here in 1998.

    Some cool maps to play around with here (from 2016):

    https://www.270towin.com/alternative-electoral-college-allocation-methods/

  4. michael @ #100 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 4:18 pm

    If Trump had not been disgraceful towards McCain, he was disgraceful to John someone who was respected in Georgia as well may have flipped 2 states. And all he had to do is manage covid seriously and treat American lives with respect and 2 other swing states may have flipped.

    In other words, if Donald Trump were halfway decent and competent at his job and didn’t kill his own citizens and bash his own military he would have won? That applies to just about any politician.

    And if Donald Trump did those things, he wouldn’t be…Donald Trump.

  6. Just can’t see any scenario in which Pence goes along with a pardoning scheme

    He will be running for the big seat in 2024. He is already distancing himself from Trump

  7. This is amazing:

    Simone
    @SimoneRacanelli
    · 6h
    Replying to @DianeMariePosts
    I think that considering then unimportant when there are 5.1 million Indigenous voters vs New Hampshire’s 1.1 million speaks volumes about the US. Check out these maps of tribes in Arizona and districts that went blue. It’s no coincidence.

  9. AR Trump should have been replaced 6 months ago. Put the right type of leader in who can still motivate the base, Biden could well be now history. But the USA system of electing leaders sucks so what can to you.

  10. Zerlo:

    Good lord, nobody’s complaining, just pointing out electoral realities.

    You’ve chosen a really odd hill to die on here.

  11. The Hopi. I remember working on one of their mesa back in the early 90s. Respect was a key attribute. Elders were respected. The land was respected. Youngsters were given a lot of freedom to make mistakes. I remember they were friendly but wary. I was new to the US and not sure where to look and what to ignore. I wish now I’d paid more attention to the Hopi.

  12. Asha Leusays:
    Monday, November 9, 2020 at 6:24 pm

    Nah, there is only one.

    Biden wins. Trump loses.

    Just like the media polls, electoral realities is wrong.

    Meanwhile, Guardian:

    This tedious repetition of the patently false accusation of voter fraud by the peculiar shirt-tucker Rudy Giuliani, who will say literally anything to sustain the next Trump grift which is coming as sure as the sunrise, bears mentioning only because of how long is his list of the states where they got beaten.

    Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada – oh don’t forget Arizona, that was bad, and Maine, that district in Nebraska…

  14. Asha Leusays:
    Monday, November 9, 2020 at 6:35 pm

    ??? yes indeed, the what if scenarios can be played along prior to the election but not after.

  16. ”In other words, if Donald Trump were halfway decent and competent at his job and didn’t kill his own citizens and bash his own military he would have won? That applies to just about any politician.”

    Just about any politician elected President is allowed a second term.

  18. Not entirely true. George Bush Senior was beaten also by time as he followed Reagan and to win a 2nd term mean’t the Republicans would have been in power for 16 years. Americans seem to like to rotate between Democrats and Republicans every 8 years as has happened for the last couple of decades. As for Carter and Trump they have no excuse.

  19. Not entirely true. George Bush Senior was beaten also by time as he followed Reagan and to win a 2nd term mean’t the Republicans would have been in power for 16 years.

    George H.W. Bush was in a strong polling position in 1991. So much so that quite a few presidential aspirants decided not to bother with 1992. In fact, even during the general, it was not a one-sided affair and there were points where Bush actually had momentum and looked like a real shot to get back in.

    Incumbents have an advantage. Not because of some magic spell or some unwritten rule that says parties get 8 years at a time. It’s because voters are risk-minimisers. If they’re satisfied enough with how things are, they’ll stay on the current course. If they aren’t, they’re open to change but if the alternative looks more risky, they’ll stay on the course. When it’s two new faces, there is no “current course” anymore, so they look at the two candidates on equal footing and choose the one they think will serve their interests best over the next couple of years. And yes, it is much more a personality contest than a match of policy ideas.

    It’s the same everywhere. For example, in Australia, that’s the basis for the oversimplified maxim barked here that “oppositions don’t win elections; governments lose them.” The major difference, of course, is there is always a continuity of government going into elections, so never is an Australian election seen as an “open seat race” (although a change in leader can often be a cue that it’s time for change but that causal relationship is a little chicken v. egg.)

  20. Trump doing an atrocious job as President, combined with Joe Biden being a safe and likeable alternative was the winning combo.

    EDIT: combined with the strong base support, in particular among African Americans, of course.

  21. Late Riser @ #111 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 6:25 pm

    The Hopi. I remember working on one of their mesa back in the early 90s. Respect was a key attribute. Elders were respected. The land was respected. Youngsters were given a lot of freedom to make mistakes. I remember they were friendly but wary. I was new to the US and not sure where to look and what to ignore. I wish now I’d paid more attention to the Hopi.

    …. the Hopi word koyaanisqatsi (Hopi pronunciation: [kojɑːnisˈkɑtsi]) is defined as “life of moral corruption and turmoil” or “life out of balance”.

    https://youtu.be/i4MXPIpj5sA

    (One of the great films of the ‘if you remember it you didn’t see it’ genre.)

  22. Thanks ItzaDream. I’ll bookmark it. 🙂 So much was new back then, that the Hopi were just a piece in the tapestry. I recall their domed dwellings, but wasn’t allowed inside. I was too young, still in my 30s.

  23. Late Riser @ #112 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 6:25 pm

    The Hopi. I remember working on one of their mesa back in the early 90s. Respect was a key attribute. Elders were respected. The land was respected. Youngsters were given a lot of freedom to make mistakes. I remember they were friendly but wary. I was new to the US and not sure where to look and what to ignore. I wish now I’d paid more attention to the Hopi.

    Maybe you would like to read this? It’s a truly inspiring and beautiful story:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2020/11/02/navajo-nation-horse-vote-polls-election/

    🙂

  24. ItzaDream says: Monday, November 9, 2020 at 8:33 pm

    Koyaanisqatsi is the first part of what is called The Qatsi Trilogy. It is followed by Powaqqatsi and Naqoyqatsi. The latter film is, in my view, the weakest of the three. I usually watch the first two movies at least once a year just for the combination of music and image and also find them a pretty good way to help me perk up a bit when I start to feel like I’m heading down.

  25. Kronomex @ #124 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 9:12 pm

    ItzaDream says: Monday, November 9, 2020 at 8:33 pm

    Koyaanisqatsi is the first part of what is called The Qatsi Trilogy. It is followed by Powaqqatsi and Naqoyqatsi. The latter film is, in my view, the weakest of the three. I usually watch the first two movies at least once a year just for the combination of music and image and also find them a pretty good way to help me perk up a bit when I start to feel like I’m heading down.

    Yes, with you here; I only watch the first, also pretty much annually. I still can recall the impact of first seeing it (Balmain’s old Bijou), and the stunning visuals accentuated by the Philip Glass score. The genius I think is that it ‘fvcks’ with time, something I dwell on a lot. I think time as we experience it is the great magician. Little (if anything) in the film is seen in ‘real time’ and it’s only by slowing or speeding the camera (and time) down or up can other truths be revealed. Anyways, it’s a great movie, and very much of its time, and yet timeless.

  26. Late Riser @ #122 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:47 pm

    Thanks ItzaDream. I’ll bookmark it. 🙂 So much was new back then, that the Hopi were just a piece in the tapestry. I recall their domed dwellings, but wasn’t allowed inside. I was too young, still in my 30s.

    Wonderful memories, and all part of your tapestry. I’ve driven around thereabouts a bit and stood on the Four Corners, and fell in love with the high plain desert. (I had friends in Santa Fe)

    Remember this: Cliff Palace, Mesa Verde, Co. I lucked being there in light snow, when it was dusted as if with icing sugar.

  27. “Koyaanisqatsi” in the Hopi language reputedly meaning “awesome trip movie”. I recall seeing it at the original Valhalla cinema in Richmond…. the screen was barely visIble due to the clouds of aromatic smoke billowing up from the late night and curiously contented audience…

  31. Can Alaska start counting their damn votes already?

    I seriously don’t understand the virtue of NC and AK not processing some votes until a week after the election, especially when they knew there would be a surge in absentee ballots.

    Also, kudos to AZ, NV, GA, PA, WI and MI. They’re copping a lot of flak but they seem to be counting much faster than NY, MA, MS and CA (where the winner is a forgone conclusion).

  32. In 2016, 71 percent of the electorate was White. Then-candidate Donald Trump won 57 percent of them. In 2020, Trump again won 57 percent of them, but the White share of the electorate dropped precipitously to 65 percent. That is a big problem when you are only winning a quarter of nonwhite votes.

    The Republican Party last won more than 50 percent of the vote in 2004; in 2020, Trump looks like he will finish at least 5 million votes behind President-elect Joe Biden. If the number climbed past that to 7 million, Trump would be the biggest loser in absolute terms and lose by a larger percentage basis than Mitt Romney did in 2012.

    The party has an even bigger problem: Its electoral map is shrinking. As late as 2004, the Republican presidential nominee won Nevada, Arizona, Virginia, Colorado and Georgia. When voting is concluded, in all likelihood Trump will have lost all of these. He picked up no state Hillary Clinton won, and lost by greater margins in Colorado, New Hampshire and Minnesota than he did in 2016. Although Republicans have hung on to Texas for now, their margins of victory have been dropping (16 points in 2012, nine points in 2016 and six points in 2020). It could well be on the same path as Colorado, Nevada and Virginia — once competitive states but now solidly Democratic. There is no competitive state for Republicans on the West coast (excluding Alaska) or north of Virginia on the East Coast.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/09/this-how-much-trouble-republicans-are/

  34. micahel
    “Not entirely true. George Bush Senior was beaten also by time as he followed Reagan and to win a 2nd term mean’t the Republicans would have been in power for 16 years.”

    I’m inclined to agree. When George HW Bush left office in 1993 the Republicans had held the White House for 12 years.

    This go-round, Trump and the Republican Party have only held the White House for 4 years. So the loss is most similar to Jimmy Carter’s loss in 1981.

  35. Dr. Al Gross@DrAlGrossAK·
    1h

    US Senate candidate, AK
    Here’s an update on Alaska:

    Tomorrow, the Division of Elections starts counting mail-in and early vote ballots. They will release numbers in batches over the next several days. Feeling good about where things stand.

  36. Robert J. DeNault
    @robertjdenault

    People can be happy we won and say that folks are crying wolf but the reality is that there is a concerted effort by the GOP to invalidate the results of this election. It may seem stupid or fruitless, but much like the MAGA movement we ignore it at our own peril.

  38. On average, Mr. Biden improved on Hillary Clinton’s performance in these 373 suburban counties around the country by about 4.6 percentage points as of Monday morning, a margin that could change modestly with counting still underway (that average weights each county by population). In Georgia, the shift has been more than eight points. In Michigan and Wisconsin, it was about three points.

    Nationally, these suburban counties were the places where vote margins changed the most from 2016. Mr. Trump improved his margins in counties outside metropolitan areas, but by less than a point.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/06/upshot/suburbs-shifted-left-president.html

  41. “George Bush”

    ***

    Speak of the devil, Junior has something to say…

    George W Bush congratulates Joe Biden, says election was ‘fundamentally fair’

    Former US president George W Bush has offered his “warm congratulations” to President-elect Joe Biden, calling the Democrat “a good man, who has won his opportunity to lead and unify our country”.

    The two-term Republican, in a statement issued by his presidential center in Dallas, also congratulated loser Donald Trump for his “extraordinary political achievement” in winning 70 million votes.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/george-w-bush-congratulates-joe-biden-says-election-was-fundamentally-fair

    Awwww, isn’t that nice. The bromance of the war crims continues.

  42. Jonathan Swan (axios reports:

    President Trump has already told advisers he’s thinking about running for president again in 2024, two sources familiar with the conversations tell Axios.

    Why it matters: This is the clearest indication yet that Trump understands he has lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden — even as the president continues to falsely insist that he is the true winner, that there has been election fraud and that his team will fight to the end in the courts.

    Even four years after leaving office, he could remain formidable in a Republican primary. That fact alone could freeze the ambitions, fundraising and staffing of individual candidates — and of the Republican National Committee as it seeks to regroup and move beyond Trump.

    Don’t forget: On the day he was inaugurated, in 2017, Trump filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to qualify as a 2020 candidate.

    https://www.axios.com/trump-2024-presidential-run-4add0d86-02be-41f9-b2fd-5aaca96ce6ce.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiospm&stream=top

  43. Itza,
    That will only make Democrat voters even more determined to defeat Trump a second time. Don’t forget, demography is destiny and there are 14 year olds that will be voting then and older Republican base voters who will have passed away.

  45. Plus, Twitter will come down hard on Trump now that he is no longer President. And networks will cut away from his delusional rallies and he will have Secretaries that will use the government against him.

  48. Looking around this morning I noticed these countries are officially “waiting for the full count.”
    Brazil, China, Mexico, Russia, Turkey

    I wondered when these countries congratulated Trump in 2016?
    election – Nov 8
    Brazil – Nov 9
    China – Nov 14
    Mexico – Nov 9
    Russia – Nov 9
    Turkey – Nov 9
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

    China is the only one being consistent.

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