1:00pm Wednesday Dave Wasserman’s current House count is 221 Democrats, 209 Republicans and five undecided. In four of the undecided races, Republicans lead, but there’s some hope for Democrats in New York’s 22nd. At the 2018 midterms, Democrats won the House by a 235-200 margin.
Biden now leads Trump in the popular vote by 50.9% to 47.2% with up to 1.8 million New York mail votes still to be counted. These will be very pro-Biden.
2:30pm Monday November 16 If anyone’s still following this thread, I’ve published a Conversation article about Biden’s narrow margin in the Electoral College tipping-point state (Wisconsin), and about explanations for why the polls understated Trump again. It’s plausible that coronavirus was a factor, because those who followed medical advice to stay home were more likely to respond to polls and be Democrats.
2:25pm In final Arizona results, Biden defeated Trump by 10,377 votes or 0.30%.
11:48am Sunday I posted yesterday about how Biden only won the “tipping-point” state by 0.6% despite his 306-232 Electoral College win, but it appears that post was lost with the site’s problems.
Democrats lead in the House by 218-203 with 14 seats uncalled. Eight of the uncalled races are in New York, where mail counting has been very slow. Mail votes will be very strong for Democrats, and they will win the three seats where they currently lead. Dave Wasserman thinks the Dem in New York’s 22nd has a real chance of overcoming the Rep’s lead once all mail is counted.
3:40pm Arizona CALLED for Biden after he won the latest batch of Maricopa county votes. He leads Trump by over 11,400 votes or 0.34%. That call takes Biden to a 290-217 Electoral College lead. The final two states, Georgia and North Carolina, will go to Biden and Trump respectively. Biden will win the Electoral College by 306-232.
3:00pm Friday In the past, late counting in states such as California and Arizona has been better for Democrats than election night results. The early mail has been pro-Republican, but the late mail has been better for Democrats. This election, it’s clear that Democrats were much keener to vote early, and so the normal pattern has been reversed. That’s why Fox News and the AP called Arizona prematurely.
There’s now a big scare for Democrats in New Jersey’s seventh district. The Republican is within 6,300 votes with almost 39,000 remaining. The Rep has been winning late counted votes by big enough margins to put the Dem in jeopardy. Dems will still retain a narrow House majority, but it’s way below expectations.
2:30pm Trump won a batch of 13,000 Maricopa county, Arizona votes by 9%, but there just aren’t enough votes left for him to overcome his current 11,600+ vote deficit in Arizona. Dave Wasserman has called it for Biden.
11:30am Thursday Both the Alaska and North Carolina Senate races were CALLED for Republicans today, taking them to a 50-48 lead with two Georgia runoffs on January 5. Alaska was also called for Trump, with North Carolina to follow soon.
5:00pm Biden currently leads in the national popular vote by over five million votes (50.8% to 47.4%).
4:57pm Democrats are just over the majority mark in the House, and lead Republicans by 218-201 with 16 still uncalled. Dave Wasserman sees it as 222 Democrats, 206 Republicans and seven undecided. Democrats are currently trailing in all seven undecided seats, but may be able to save one or two.
4:47pm In the Alaska Senate contest, the Republican is still up by 58-36 with 75% in. Mail was added today, but it didn’t break heavily Democratic enough. This will soone be called for the Republicans, as will the North Carolina Senate.
4:45pm Biden’s lead in Georgia (14,100 votes) is now greater than his lead in Arizona (12,800), though in percentage terms the Arizona lead is still bigger (0.38% vs 0.28%). I think there are under 50,000 votes left to count in Arizona.
10:45am Wednesday Biden’s lead over 12,600 in Georgia and 14,200 in Arizona.
2:07pm Biden currently leads Trump by 50.7% to 47.5% in the popular vote tracker. Democrats lead by 216-198 in the House with 21 races still uncalled.
1:38PM Trump won today’s batch of over 6k Maricopa county votes by 50-48. Biden maintains a lead just under 15,000 in Arizona. Meanwhile, Biden has extended his Georgia lead beyond 12,000 votes (0.25%).
11:50am Biden’s Arizona lead now under 15,000.
10:25am Tuesday Biden now leads by over 11,400 votes or 0.23% in Georgia and by 15,400 or 0.46% in Arizona. Biden’s lead has stretched to 2.7% in Nevada and to 0.67% in Pennsylvania.
11:06am Biden’s Arizona lead below 17,000 after a batch of about 13,500 votes from the pro-Trump Pinal county. But Pinal is likely almost finished counting.
10:35am Provisionals are padding Biden’s Georgia lead, now over 10,300 or 0.2%. In Pennsylvania, he leads by over 43,000. In Nevada, he leads by 2.4%.
10:30am Monday Biden’s lead in Arizona back over 20,000 votes after he won the latest batch from Maricopa county. This was a small batch of under 7,000 votes that split to Biden by 55-44. Provisionals, which are counted last, are probably much better for Biden than the late mail votes. Biden is very likely to win Arizona now.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Cook Political analyst Dave Wasserman has an excellent graphic for following the national presidential popular vote. As of Sunday afternoon, it had Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 50.7% to 47.6%. That lead is certain to stretch over the coming weeks as there are far more votes left to be counted in Democratic strongholds like California and New York.
A related question is how far the Electoral College “tipping-point” state was from the national popular vote. With Biden’s lead dropping in Arizona even as it expands in Pennsylvania, it appears that Wisconsin will be the state that gave him 270 Electoral Votes. Biden only won Wisconsin by 0.6%, so it is already 2.5 points more favourable to Trump than nationally, and that gap will stretch further.
In Arizona, Biden’s lead is under 19,000 votes or 0.6% with 97% counted. While early mail ballots were pro-Biden, late mail is pro-Trump. Will Biden hold onto his lead? In Georgia, Biden now has a lead of over 9,000 or 0.2% with almost all votes counted. It is very unlikely that a recount will change that race. Trump will almost certainly win the other two uncalled states, North Carolina and Alaska.
Republicans will also almost certainly win the uncalled Senate races in North Carolina and Alaska, for a 50-48 Senate lead. Both Georgia Senate races are going to January 5 runoffs. Democrats would need to win both to tie the Senate at 50-50 and give Kamala Harris the casting vote.
Democrats lead in the House by 215 to 196 with 24 races uncalled. Eight of the uncalled races are in New York, where mail votes have not been counted and are likely to heavily favour Democrats. Republicans have gained a net of five House seats so far.
Greens need their own thread, they just as bad as Donald trump
73 days until inauguration and Trump becomes a private citizen.
If you going to bring up Joe Biden as voting for the war in Iraq then you should mention Hilary Clinton as well. Pretty sure Clinton who was a senator based in New York would have felt pressure to been seen strong as on terrorism from her constituents after September 11. Which is why she likely voted in favor of Iraq even though it had nothing to do with 9/11.
It wasn’t the only factor why she lost in 2008 Democratic primary’s against Barack Obama. But it was a factor. It probably also stopped Biden gaining any momentum in his presidential run in 2008. However, by saying that Biden wasn’t seen as a legitimate chance back then and rated in the ‘B grade’ list of Democratic presidential candidates compared to frontrunners (Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Clinton). It was only after Biden became Vice President to Obama that it gave him a leg up in his standing in the Democratic Party.
Confessions @ #52 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 10:59 am
Dec 8 is when States are meant to declare their EC voters (Safe Harbour date).
Dec 14 is when those electors vote for the president.
Trump will do everything he can to disrupt up to that first date, hope the important states will over-rule the popular vote in that state (which I dont think he can do) and failing that, get congress to intervene.
Dec14 cant come soon enough. The undemocratic party leaders like McConnell and Graham and Jordan need to chose. Are they fascists or Americans?
Chaos confuses reality. It shakes the rule base that many depend on for orientation. Trump uses the chaos to mask his incompetence – he survives by being good at manipulating and then navigating through that chaos. It is his MO. Everything around him can crumble and he doesnt care, he is in his element.
Republican leaders and their morals are slowly declining through a thousand tiny capitulations. They have now lost all sense of right and wrong. They now only see ‘them and us’, ‘win or lose’. They arent the same as Trump. They are worse.
Great post Simon Katich
Jesse Lehrich
@JesseLehrich
Biden is now up 34k votes in NV (2.6%) & 43k in PA; more blue votes to come.
AZ/GA leads are insurmountable now with very little outstanding.
Biden wins 306 EVs & leads popular vote by 4.8M, with 6M ballots still out from CA/NY/IL.
this was not a close election.
Bravo, SK. 🙂
Jake Tapper
@jaketapper
Sources close to POTUS tell me he’s being urged by Jared Kushner, Rudy Giuliani, & campaign adviser Jason Miller to hold rallies throughout the US pushing for recounts of votes.
Dave Bossie and WH chief of staff Mark Meadows are urging the president to think about a concession.
Jake Tapper
@jaketapper
2/ To be clear, there is no credible strategy of recounts that result in anything other than Joe Biden as president-elect.
This is about appeasing the president’s ego and currying favor with him, the sources say.
Instead of dancing onstage, he should have a wank onstage, it’s closer to the reality now for Trump.
Damn fucking straight.
Posted on the other thread.
Maybe. But why would you bother? Do they all need a Presidential Pardon? Trump is transactional. What can they offer in return?
A different thought on Trump negotiations.
https://twitter.com/PalmerReport/status/1325539933990346752
https://twitter.com/TAM_1963/status/1325546261773250566
Give us an admission that what you did was wrong and we will go easier on you.
We don’t actually care about you, but it will help us clean up the mess you made.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/bill-barr-the-end-of/33852/
That triggered an interesting idea. Trump pardons Pence, then steps down. Then Pence pardons Trump. It would be a fitting farcical finish.
Have been mulling something along those lines. Trump’s actions have more the tenor of someone trying to build a negotiating position than someone who really thinks they can win. He probably knows he’s in deep shit as soon as presidential immunity and AG Barr can’t shield him anymore. Perhaps he wants to make things as bad as he can to extract a pardon or other form of immunity from the incoming administration.
Hope the Dems don’t play along. Suspect they probably will. 🙁
Bad idea. They wouldn’t realize that. They’re not going to “deprogram”. They’ll just weave it into their conspiracy theories, one more reason to hate and oppose the “deep state”.
“this was not a close election. ”
Right. 538 made this point in a post on Saturday. The apparent early closeness was an artifact of the order in which the votes were counted, not their total numbers. The longer counting drags on the worse it is going to look.
On Bill Barr, this article in Slate catalogues some of his many appalling deeds. Many sound highly illegal. I suspect a lot of ugly stories about The Trumpistas will come out now that there is nobody with any political clout left to suppress them.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/goodbye-attorney-general-bill-barr.html
It’s totally fair to criticize Biden’s record on the Iraq War. He played a sizable part in building the case for and convincing Democrats to vote for a war that turned out to be an absolute disaster. I think it’s quite a leap to call him a evil or a war criminal for his momentously bad call here, though. It’s quite possible he genuinely believed this was the right thing to do, and, in any case, he certainly played little part in the clusterfuck that was the Bush administration’s invasion strategy, and has had the good grace to admit he was wrong.
In the real world, people – especially people with power – don’t slot easily into the categories of heroes and villains. I really hate this tendency these days to call people “evil” at the drop of a hat. Over his long career, Biden has championed some very questionable legislation and enabled the continuation of the USA’s militaristic foreign policy… but he’s also achieved a lot of good too, especially in his efforts in getting Obama-era bills through congress. Just as one can condemn LBJ for his escalation of Vietnam and praise him for the Civil Rights Act, one can also condemn Biden for the bad, praise him for the good, and accept that he is a flawed individual with a mixed record who is nonetheless a vast improvement over the previous Commander in Chief, preferable to basically any other Presidential candidate the Republicans may have put up were Trump out of the picture, and seems genuine about affecting positive change in the US. Will he actually achieve such change? I guess we will find out.
You_Will_Seesays:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 2:56 pm
Biden is going to cede the election and admit that his electoral college count was based on fraudulently recorded results.
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHA
I dont get how this is not a close election.
Biden has won Mich, Pa and Nev by reasonable amounts. That gets him to 269.
His margins in Wis, Ar and GA will sum up to about 50K.
Seems close to me.
Am I doing this right?
You_Will_See @ #68 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 1:56 pm
Wayne? Is that you?
Simon Katichsays:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 3:06 pm
Other media reports from 279 to 290.
largest popular vote (trump didn’t have).
tie in senate.
majority in house.
That is a landslide.
If Trump steps down to get a pardon from Pence or negotiates one from Biden it only covers federal crimes- it is not of great value to Trump
Zerlo @ #72 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 2:39 pm
Yeah, but I am looking for the tipping point. That is Wisconsin. You take away Wisconsin from what Biden is projected to win then Biden has 269. So the sum of the margins of the states over that (Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia) is his winning margin – sort of.
Simon Katichsays:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 3:13 pm
Not gonna happen.
SK
If the postal votes had been counted in advance as per normal, and not delayed by the voting regulations put out by the Republicans, this election would have been over on the night. Biden’s EC total may have been the same as Trump’s when he won in 2016, but his winning margins in the swing states were actually bigger than Trump’s and are still growing.
Dragging the count on for four days made it look closer than it really was. The margin was clear as soon as WI and MI were declared and Biden started closing in PA.
You’ve got a point. So what if the negotiations are a goal in themselves, to occupy Trump’s attention and distract his supporters? Maybe they’ll get tired of waiting for Trump to do something.
Soc,
For Trump to have won, he needed to change the mind of 20k people in Wis AND 10k in Ga AND about 20k in Arizona. So, his margin is 50k.
Making it a closer election (EC wise) than in 2016.
I feel I am missing something here. I dont like being on a different side to everyone. Please show me where I am wrong in the numbers or the logic.
SK
“Yeah, but I am looking for the tipping point. That is Wisconsin. You take away Wisconsin from what Biden is projected to win then Biden has 269.”
Wrong. Biden is projected now to get 306 votes. Minus Wisconsin (10) and Biden would still have 296.
For Trump to win, he needed to retake any THREE of Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia or Pennsylvania.
Socrates @ #79 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 2:52 pm
Yes. Exactly. I picked the 3 closer races. Arizona, Wis and Georgia.
Would be interesting if we could tell how much of that was due to Trump, and how much due to the unique circumstances surrounding this election in particular (pandemic, high unemployment, expanded access to early voting, etc.).
Kelly O’Donnell
@KellyO
.@VP @Mike_Pence will lead a coronavirus task force meeting Monday afternoon. There had not been a meeting in weeks due to the campaign schedule.
BIT LATE MOFOS.
I thought the election would be much closer than it’s ended up being.
a r @ #81 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 2:55 pm
What worries me is the big swings to Trump in Iowa, Ohio and even Ill. Democrats have future hopes in NC and Texas but they need some smaller states too for the senate. Mo. and Kan are the closest and showed promising swings but…. still so far behind!
Partition?
Confessions @ #83 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 3:01 pm
Trump won by 80,000 across 3 states in 2016. The media made a big thing about how close that was.
Biden has won by 50,000 across 3 states (by my calcs) in 2020.
“For the first time in history the high turnout benefited Republicans” – Lincoln Project.
Debatable? Perhaps, but nonetheless appears to be the case.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Izjl_D6I2KU&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=TheHilltopShow
SK
“Yes. Exactly. I picked the 3 closer races. Arizona, Wis and Georgia.”
OK I oversimplified. Biden losing those particular three only gets it to a tie. (269-269). Trump still does not win. Trump needed to win 4 of those 6 or Pennsylvania + 2 others. Biden only needed 2, because he won Nebraska2.
Also SK you are comparing Trump’s final margin from 2016 with the margins the Democrats had at the time the decisions were made in 2020. The final margins in 2020 will be bigger. Now they are:
Arizona = +18,000
Georgia = +10,000
Wisconsin = +20,000
(From AP)
So Biden is already 58,000 ahead in those races and pulling away. The final margin will be greater. Plus that is still not a win for Trump. Check results right now (counting of postals still going on):
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=us+election+counting
If you don’t believe me, play around with the interactive map on 270towin.
https://www.270towin.com/
Doesnt Trump win in a 269-269 tie? Congress will re-elect him.
And your maths is as bad as mine. 48,000?
Yes, Biden may pull away is some of those states. He may slip further in Az. Unlikely he will get to the 80,000 margin Trump had in 2016.
Simon Katichsays:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 3:38 pm
You Comparing Apples with Oranges.
Meanwhile the US Markets are picking up steam on the Biden win.
Trump getting Trumped:
https://www.9news.com.au/national/australia-breaking-news-live-coronavirus-updates-headlines-november-9-melbourne-restrictions-ease-donald-trump-fights-us-election/a6c2f956-3b81-430c-9d3a-ab53a0b50302
Outgoing US President Donald Trump could be facing a legal reckoning like no other when he packs up his bags and leaves the White House in January.
Ousted from the top job, Mr Trump will find himself without many of the legal protections his presidency afforded him.
Mr Trump is currently facing multiple investigations looking into possible fraud in his financial business dealings as a private citizen – both as an individual and through his company.
Zerlo @ #88 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 3:42 pm
I reckon I can find you half a dozen big media outlet headlines in 2016 saying Trump won because of 80,000 votes across 3 states.
I am showing you Biden has won because of less than 80,000 across three states.
Apples and apples.
And it matters. It matters for 2022 and 2024. It matters because those numbers will be flashing on every lawyers screen that Trump can afford to try and swindle this election.
In the terms that we’d describe it in Australia, on current numbers, Biden would lose four states on a uniform swing of 0.5% (0.1% in Georgia, 0.2% in Arizona, 0.3% in Wisconsin, 0.4% in Pennsylvania) while still retaining a comfortable lead in the national popular vote.
Simon Katichsays:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 4:18 pm
Yawn
Sounding like Trump supporter.
Zerlo @ #92 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 3:52 pm
Ripper. Pollbludgers have now called me a Green, a Liberal, woke and now a Trump supporter (amongst other things).
I will take your recourse to name calling as a concession that you agree Biden won narrowly.
Because your universe does not fit with reality.
Guardian:
Trump has not made any public appearances since the race was called for Biden. Today, he has been posting Fox News clips on Twitter and spreading misinformation and unsubstantiated claims about voter fraud.
In about half of the tweets he has posted since Biden became the president-elect, Trump’s messages and videos have required labels from Twitter noting that his allegations are disputed, or messages from the social media site clarifying that mail-in voting is safe and secure.
Trump, who has been golfing this weekend, has no public events scheduled for Monday. Biden is launching his Covid-19 task force and moving forward with transition efforts.
Simon Katich is right. Wisconsin is likely to be the tipping-point state, and I believe its count is basically final.
If you take Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin off Biden’s total of 306 likely Electoral Votes, he ties with Trump 269-269. And in that circumstance, the House decides the election, but with each state delegation getting one vote. As Republicans control a majority of state delegations, Trump would win.
US presidential elections are weird. Biden won big in the popular vote (by US standards), looks like he will be getting a comfortable electoral college result, but it was indeed pretty damn close in several key swing states.
The Donald seems to be rapidly turning into the deranged ranting uncle in the basement that the family tries to ignore and hope that lock on the door holds out.
A figure full of anger, fear, childish petulance and no substance.
I think I might watch Four Corners tonight. Saint Scotty of the Skidmark doesn’t seem too happy about the program with it’s appearance of bias against the LNP.
Trump is a loser and sooner he disappears for ever the better. Yes its around a 3% gap in the 2pp currently. But for some people to say Biden’s victory in the electoral college is comfortable need help. A 0.7% uniform swing in 3 swing states, and Trump wins. If Trump had not been disgraceful towards McCain, he was disgraceful to John someone who was respected in Georgia as well may have flipped 2 states. And all he had to do is manage covid seriously and treat American lives with respect and 2 other swing states may have flipped. But he deserves to be known as a loser and sucker for ever.