1:00pm Wednesday Dave Wasserman’s current House count is 221 Democrats, 209 Republicans and five undecided. In four of the undecided races, Republicans lead, but there’s some hope for Democrats in New York’s 22nd. At the 2018 midterms, Democrats won the House by a 235-200 margin.
Biden now leads Trump in the popular vote by 50.9% to 47.2% with up to 1.8 million New York mail votes still to be counted. These will be very pro-Biden.
2:30pm Monday November 16 If anyone’s still following this thread, I’ve published a Conversation article about Biden’s narrow margin in the Electoral College tipping-point state (Wisconsin), and about explanations for why the polls understated Trump again. It’s plausible that coronavirus was a factor, because those who followed medical advice to stay home were more likely to respond to polls and be Democrats.
2:25pm In final Arizona results, Biden defeated Trump by 10,377 votes or 0.30%.
11:48am Sunday I posted yesterday about how Biden only won the “tipping-point” state by 0.6% despite his 306-232 Electoral College win, but it appears that post was lost with the site’s problems.
Democrats lead in the House by 218-203 with 14 seats uncalled. Eight of the uncalled races are in New York, where mail counting has been very slow. Mail votes will be very strong for Democrats, and they will win the three seats where they currently lead. Dave Wasserman thinks the Dem in New York’s 22nd has a real chance of overcoming the Rep’s lead once all mail is counted.
3:40pm Arizona CALLED for Biden after he won the latest batch of Maricopa county votes. He leads Trump by over 11,400 votes or 0.34%. That call takes Biden to a 290-217 Electoral College lead. The final two states, Georgia and North Carolina, will go to Biden and Trump respectively. Biden will win the Electoral College by 306-232.
3:00pm Friday In the past, late counting in states such as California and Arizona has been better for Democrats than election night results. The early mail has been pro-Republican, but the late mail has been better for Democrats. This election, it’s clear that Democrats were much keener to vote early, and so the normal pattern has been reversed. That’s why Fox News and the AP called Arizona prematurely.
There’s now a big scare for Democrats in New Jersey’s seventh district. The Republican is within 6,300 votes with almost 39,000 remaining. The Rep has been winning late counted votes by big enough margins to put the Dem in jeopardy. Dems will still retain a narrow House majority, but it’s way below expectations.
2:30pm Trump won a batch of 13,000 Maricopa county, Arizona votes by 9%, but there just aren’t enough votes left for him to overcome his current 11,600+ vote deficit in Arizona. Dave Wasserman has called it for Biden.
11:30am Thursday Both the Alaska and North Carolina Senate races were CALLED for Republicans today, taking them to a 50-48 lead with two Georgia runoffs on January 5. Alaska was also called for Trump, with North Carolina to follow soon.
5:00pm Biden currently leads in the national popular vote by over five million votes (50.8% to 47.4%).
4:57pm Democrats are just over the majority mark in the House, and lead Republicans by 218-201 with 16 still uncalled. Dave Wasserman sees it as 222 Democrats, 206 Republicans and seven undecided. Democrats are currently trailing in all seven undecided seats, but may be able to save one or two.
4:47pm In the Alaska Senate contest, the Republican is still up by 58-36 with 75% in. Mail was added today, but it didn’t break heavily Democratic enough. This will soone be called for the Republicans, as will the North Carolina Senate.
4:45pm Biden’s lead in Georgia (14,100 votes) is now greater than his lead in Arizona (12,800), though in percentage terms the Arizona lead is still bigger (0.38% vs 0.28%). I think there are under 50,000 votes left to count in Arizona.
10:45am Wednesday Biden’s lead over 12,600 in Georgia and 14,200 in Arizona.
2:07pm Biden currently leads Trump by 50.7% to 47.5% in the popular vote tracker. Democrats lead by 216-198 in the House with 21 races still uncalled.
1:38PM Trump won today’s batch of over 6k Maricopa county votes by 50-48. Biden maintains a lead just under 15,000 in Arizona. Meanwhile, Biden has extended his Georgia lead beyond 12,000 votes (0.25%).
11:50am Biden’s Arizona lead now under 15,000.
10:25am Tuesday Biden now leads by over 11,400 votes or 0.23% in Georgia and by 15,400 or 0.46% in Arizona. Biden’s lead has stretched to 2.7% in Nevada and to 0.67% in Pennsylvania.
11:06am Biden’s Arizona lead below 17,000 after a batch of about 13,500 votes from the pro-Trump Pinal county. But Pinal is likely almost finished counting.
10:35am Provisionals are padding Biden’s Georgia lead, now over 10,300 or 0.2%. In Pennsylvania, he leads by over 43,000. In Nevada, he leads by 2.4%.
10:30am Monday Biden’s lead in Arizona back over 20,000 votes after he won the latest batch from Maricopa county. This was a small batch of under 7,000 votes that split to Biden by 55-44. Provisionals, which are counted last, are probably much better for Biden than the late mail votes. Biden is very likely to win Arizona now.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Cook Political analyst Dave Wasserman has an excellent graphic for following the national presidential popular vote. As of Sunday afternoon, it had Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 50.7% to 47.6%. That lead is certain to stretch over the coming weeks as there are far more votes left to be counted in Democratic strongholds like California and New York.
A related question is how far the Electoral College “tipping-point” state was from the national popular vote. With Biden’s lead dropping in Arizona even as it expands in Pennsylvania, it appears that Wisconsin will be the state that gave him 270 Electoral Votes. Biden only won Wisconsin by 0.6%, so it is already 2.5 points more favourable to Trump than nationally, and that gap will stretch further.
In Arizona, Biden’s lead is under 19,000 votes or 0.6% with 97% counted. While early mail ballots were pro-Biden, late mail is pro-Trump. Will Biden hold onto his lead? In Georgia, Biden now has a lead of over 9,000 or 0.2% with almost all votes counted. It is very unlikely that a recount will change that race. Trump will almost certainly win the other two uncalled states, North Carolina and Alaska.
Republicans will also almost certainly win the uncalled Senate races in North Carolina and Alaska, for a 50-48 Senate lead. Both Georgia Senate races are going to January 5 runoffs. Democrats would need to win both to tie the Senate at 50-50 and give Kamala Harris the casting vote.
Democrats lead in the House by 215 to 196 with 24 races uncalled. Eight of the uncalled races are in New York, where mail votes have not been counted and are likely to heavily favour Democrats. Republicans have gained a net of five House seats so far.
That’s the answer we all come here for. What is it?
Is it not Alaska that (reverse of most of not all other states) is pro-Democrat in non-city areas whilst cities are pro-Republican?
Certainly Alaska is “different”:
– it was originally “Blue”
– there are enduring agreements between the parties survive elections (mostly these relate to the shared interest in being supported by “the South”)
From previous thread:
.
Even terrorists can estimate political costs.
And we’re talking about individual policies, not an existential threat to their party’s President
It would be pleasant to see the Democrats pick up the two Senate seats in Georgia but as it stands all we can do is wait and see.
While the GOP are favourites to win all the prizes in Alaska, they probably shouldn’t pop the champagne just yet. Only about 50% of the vote has been counted, and there are about 100,000 absentee votes still to count. If any of the Dem options can win those by about 3-to-1 (plausible, given the results of similar ballots in other states), then they might just pull off an upset. I’ll concede that it’s not likely, but it’s not out of the question.
I also think the Dems have a decent chance of winning one or both run-off elections in Georgia. Turn-out for such elections will undoubtedly be wonky, but it could be that enthusiasm might be higher on the Blue side, given that Trump will no longer be a draw for Republican voters.
Finally, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Biden try and get either Sen. Pat Toomey (PA) or Sen. Ron Johnson (WI) into his cabinet or an ambassadorship. They are both retiring at the next election in 2022, and it would certainly burnish his bi-partisan credentials, while at the same time potentially open up a Senate place that the Dem Governor of each state could fill. Again, not especially likely, but not impossible.
In any event, the 2022 map is a good one for the Democrats, with no real Senate seats at risk, and potential pick-ups in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Iowa and Florida. All that said, mid-terms can be perilous for the party of the sitting President.
The Republicans will still have the gerrymander in the house in 2022, and given redistricting next year, it could even be worse. They also tend to have higher turnout in non presidential years, and will have something to run against. I wouldn’t at this stage be confident that the Democrats can hold the house.
The plus for the Democrats might be if they can maintain high levels of mail in voting, they might be able to thwart Republican moves to suppress the vote. Of course, Republican controlled legislatures might attempt to suppress mail in voting.
Just a thought.
Did the mail ballots represent some sort of IQ test?
Is Alaska hibernating for the winter?
The signature requirement for postal voting likely hurts the number of valid Democratic votes, particularly in places like Texas where voters are not automatically informed in their signature does not match and their vote rejected, and not giving them an opportunity to fix it.
In person early voting and an election day public holiday would likely be more effective, particularly outside a pandemic.
“ Finally, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Biden try and get either Sen. Pat Toomey (PA) or Sen. Ron Johnson (WI) into his cabinet or an ambassadorship. They are both retiring at the next election in 2022, and it would certainly burnish his bi-partisan credentials, while at the same time potentially open up a Senate place that the Dem Governor of each state could fill. Again, not especially likely, but not impossible.”
I’d say that Biden offering the said distinguished gentlemen some sort of 4 year sinecure – mid ranking cabinet position or ambassadorship – is a likley consideration. Probably wont be announced until after the Georgia Senate runoffs and probably too late for the senate to scrap the filibuster for the coming term, but there would still be 2 years to legislate something before the inevitable mid-term crash.
COVID-19 isn’t going away. It is mutating variously around the world already and many of the mutations are making it more deadly, not less. So Mail-In Voting in elections is likely to stay around. Especially as it concerns the vulnerable and those who simply want to protect themselves 100%
https://t.co/BTPHevWR35?amp=1
Ron Johnson(Wi)!?!
He went Full Trumpist during the election. I don’t think P-E Biden will be favourably disposed to offering him anything, except maybe a kick in the pants.
“ Ron Johnson(Wi)!?!
He went Full Trumpist during the election. I don’t think P-E Biden will be favourably disposed to offering him anything, except maybe a kick in the pants.”
Thankfully Joe has a record of not acting out of anger and hubris.
Removing Johnson from the senate by making him ambassador to Tokyo or Tashkent serves a greater purpose. Expanding the Supreme Court. Climate change legislation. A infrastructure-jobs new deal. Minimum wage and industrial relations reforms. Expanding (or if the SC knocks it on the head, replacing) the affordable care act.
However, do you think that someone who is so in the tank to Trump will allow himself to be manipulated out of the Senate like that?
A narrative on the last days of the Trump Presidency. Seems like the inner circle are trying to get their version of events on the record.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/08/politics/donald-trump-loss-election-2020/index.html
Can you believe it? ‘Trump is already plotting his comeback and it involves Ivanka!!’
That simpering bottle of unctuous unguent!?!
“Gollum…gollum…it’s ours and we wants it. We needs it and the nasty Democrats stole it from us. Gollum, gollum”
Postal voting has helped a record number of Americans to vote…can the Republicans put the genie back in the bottle?
“ However, do you think that someone who is so in the tank to Trump will allow himself to be manipulated out of the Senate like that?”
An oleaginous Republican in the process of looking for sinecures post office?
What do you think? Is the pope a catholic?
We’ll have to wait and see, A_E. 🙂
Love this graphic.
It’s finally over! Or at least it will be once they pry Trump out with a crowbar (for the record, he needs to GTFO).
It must be such a relief for all of you now that you no longer have any excuse whatsoever for supporting a war criminal… No more Trump to cower behind…
See this is what happens when you’re an obedient member of the establishment flock and fail to think about the day after. If you start with two evils and one is removed, what are you left with?
Evil + Evil – Evil = Evil
So now then, who among you will finally admit the undeniable truth about Biden? Who will now admit the truth that he is responsible for the invasion of Iraq and the millions of deaths that occurred as a result?
Should be interesting!
Trump is out playing golf for the second day- while the US is in the grip of a do-or-die battle with COVID. He really is a piece of s%&^*t…
From The Guardian:
This is Mark Levin, who can be summarised as the man who “called on Republican-controlled state legislatures to disregard the results of the 2020 election and send electors to the Electoral College who would vote for Trump”
If Trump thinks the mail ballots are “illegal”. Prove it. Tweeting it is not proof.
I see Melanie has also joined the legal and illegal ballots issue as well.
This ain’t going to end well at all.
A couple of batches of votes added in Arizona over the past few hours have broken in favour of Biden. His lead is up to 20, 102
Thanks to William and Adrian for their efforts, analytical commentary and the platform that many of us have used as a coping outlet for troubled times.
Here is hoping for a smooth transition. Here is also worried that the Republicans are, even in defeat, consolidating their power over the mechanics of elections.
Firefox @ #23 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 9:43 am
How is Biden resposible for a Republican / Busgh/Cheney war?
Firefox says:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 9:43 am
It’s finally over!
The election of Biden offers a chance for renewal. The weight of the votes of African-, Latino-, Asian- and Working-Americans has elected a Democratic President.
Suck it up.
You hoped against hope for a Trump win. He lost. The Faux lost with him. You can shit-bag Biden if you like. You will. You will change nothing. You are an opponent of democratic process and democratic progress.
Of course, the attempts to thwart Democratic voters failed. Mail-in worked. Huge. The Faux-Republican trickles to obstruct voting failed. Excellent. The mechanics of elections have been changed.
Oh no. Here we go…..
Firefox @ #23 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:43 am
I think Bush and Cheney, with the now recanted support of Powell are responsible for the invasion. Anyone who pretends that anything Biden could have done on his own would have prevented it is delusional.
Also, the projection of a surgical strike actually did look possible. Hindsight is a great boon in predicting what has already happened, as is currently being shown with all the confident analyses of the election.
LongMemory @ #29 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 9:29 am
Just reject the premise (as it deserves). Don’t invite exposition.
“How is Biden resposible for a Republican / Busgh/Cheney war?”
***
Because then Senator Biden voted for it. The Democrats had the majority in the Senate at the time too.
https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=107&session=2&vote=00237
The last 2 batches in AZ contain a number of military and overseas ballots – making a statement as they have in PA and GA about what they think about Dotard…
So much false crap in USA Like in Australia.
“Just reject the premise (as it deserves). Don’t invite exposition.”
***
“Just ignore the undeniable truth.”
Just when you thought the “Fake Newsers” were on the way out…
sprocket_ @ #35 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 9:39 am
10,000 additional votes added since then (postly from pro-Trump Pinal county, I think?). Biden’s lead dropped from 20k to 17k. Not much left in Pinal now, though. Tuscon is more pro-Biden, and still has about 5% to report.
Greenies return to the normal green badgers.
I think Bush and Cheney, with the now recanted support of Powell are responsible for the invasion. Anyone who pretends that anything Biden could have done on his own would have prevented it is delusional.
Exactly, ajm.
One thing I do know for sure is that Firefox needs to have his dummy picked up. He keeps spitting it out. 😆
Morning All. Some thoughts on the next 70 odd days after reading this.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/donald-trump-lame-duck-damage-dangerous
There are 3 broad areas in which Trump might still do something as President, legislative (for want of a better word), community, and personal. I think Trump will focus on the personal, but he can do damage in the other two. So what kind of damage might he cause and how might it be mitigated?
Legislative (This word doesn’t feel right.)
Mitigate this using executive action in 72 days, and make it very clear now that that will be done.
Community
States and cities need to show their power and determination. I’m not sure if armed police roaming the streets is a good idea, but protecting electoral workers and the electoral process could be a good start. Take a look at how Portland (OR) is handling things since May. See what works.
Publicly defend the voting process in law courts and in the media (social and professional).
And get serious about a covid response. Education. Hospitals. Legal. Covid. Covid. Covid.
Personal
This one is easier. Just let him play golf. Encourage it even.
Keep your powder dry. January 21 isn’t that far now. Also get serious about Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn, Steve Bannon, et al.
And remind Trump of consequences.
“The United States provided intelligence and logistical support for the Saudi-led campaign. In March 2019, both houses of the United States Congress voted to pass a resolution to end US support to the Saudi Arabia war effort. It was vetoed by President Donald Trump, and in May, the Senate failed to override the veto.”
… wait I thought Donald loved peace and he never started any wars?
Sorry – my post was incomplete – this is in reference to the curretn war in Yemen – with thousands of civilian deaths and starvation.
“I think Bush and Cheney, with the now recanted support of Powell are responsible for the invasion. Anyone who pretends that anything Biden could have done on his own would have prevented it is delusional.”
***
Incorrect. As a senior Democrat, Biden played a critical role in getting the other Dems to throw their support behind Bush. The people who are delusional are those who are pretending that Biden is free of guilt, when the reality is that he has the blood of up to two and a half million people on his hands.
Joe Biden championed the Iraq war. Will that come back to haunt him now?
The Iraq war has been a prominent, even decisive issue, in some recent US presidential elections. It played a significant role in the surprise presidential primary victory won by a freshman senator from Illinois named Barack Obama in 2008. His heavily favored Democratic primary opponent, Hillary Clinton, had voted in the US Senate to authorize the war, and Obama didn’t let her forget it during that contest.
In 2016, Donald Trump invoked the Iraq war against opponents in his own surprise victory in the Republican primary. And then he used it against Clinton, most likely with significant effect, in the general election that followed.
Biden did vastly more than just vote for the war. Yet his role in bringing about that war remains mostly unknown or misunderstood by the public. When the war was debated and then authorized by the US Congress in 2002, Democrats controlled the Senate and Biden was chair of the Senate committee on foreign relations. Biden himself had enormous influence as chair and argued strongly in favor of the 2002 resolution granting President Bush the authority to invade Iraq.
“I do not believe this is a rush to war,” Biden said a few days before the vote. “I believe it is a march to peace and security. I believe that failure to overwhelmingly support this resolution is likely to enhance the prospects that war will occur …”
But he had a power much greater than his own words. He was able to choose all 18 witnesses in the main Senate hearings on Iraq. And he mainly chose people who supported a pro-war position. They argued in favor of “regime change as the stated US policy” and warned of “a nuclear-armed Saddam sometime in this decade”. That Iraqis would “welcome the United States as liberators” And that Iraq “permits known al-Qaida members to live and move freely about in Iraq” and that “they are being supported”.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/17/joe-biden-role-iraq-war
Donald Trump has never said he loves peace. His position has consistently been that he doesn’t want American taxes and American soldiers paying for other people’s peace. Trump has always been pro-selling American weaponry to pretty much anyone who is willing to pay for it, not least the Saudis.
“One thing I do know for sure is that Firefox needs to have his dummy picked up. He keeps spitting it out.”
***
Sigh. Good one, Cat. *rolls eyes*
You know things are pretty dire for the Labor Right when they are reduced to living vicariously through an American war crim.
I suppose in the world of Firefox, everyone has “blood on their hands”.
It looks like Andrew Bolt has got the memo from Rupert…
‘I suppose in the world of Firefox, everyone has “blood on their hands”.’
***
People who vote to invade countries and slaughter millions most certainly do have blood on their hands, yes.
It seems some scales have fallen from the eyes of Andrew Bolt…