Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
This is a slightly modified version of an article I had published for The Conversation earlier Monday.
Two days before Wednesday’s US election (AEDT), the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate gives Joe Biden an 8.6% lead over Donald Trump (52.0% to 43.4%). Biden’s lead has decreased by 0.3% since last Thursday. In the key states, Biden leads by 8.3% in Wisconsin, 8.2% in Michigan, 4.8% in Pennsylvania, 3.1% in Arizona and 2.2% in Florida.
Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania is almost four points below his national lead, and that gives Trump hope of pulling off an Electoral College/popular vote split, as occurred at the 2016 election. Pennsylvania is the most likely “tipping-point” state that could put either Trump or Biden over the magic 270 Electoral Votes.
If Biden loses Pennsylvania, but wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, he would have 269 Electoral Votes, one short of 270. Either Maine’s or Nebraska’s second Congressional District could in that scenario give Biden the narrowest of Electoral College wins. These states award one Electoral Vote to the winner of each of their districts, and two to the statewide winner. All other states are winner-takes-all.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the tipping-point state (Wisconsin) by 0.8%, while winning the popular vote by 2.1% – a difference between the tipping-point and popular vote of 2.9%.
Analyst Nate Silver says while Trump can plausibly win, he would need the polls to be wrong by far more than in 2016. At this stage in 2016, the FiveThirtyEight forecast gave Trump a 35% chance; he currently has just a 10% chance. Trump only has a 3% chance to win the popular vote.
Trump had one very good poll result from a high-quality pollster: a Selzer Iowa poll gave him a seven-point lead in that state. But most high-quality polls have been far better for Biden: Siena polls for The New York Times gave Biden six-point leads in Arizona and Pennsylvania, a three-point lead in Florida and an 11-point lead in Wisconsin.
In FiveThirtyEight aggregates, Biden leads by 2.0% in North Carolina and 1.5% in Georgia. He trails by 0.3% in Ohio, 1.2% in Texas and 1.7% in Iowa. If Biden won all these states, he would win over 400 Electoral Votes. Florida is now in this group of states when it had previously been better for Biden.
Trump’s net job approval ratings have jumped two points since last Thursday. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, his net approval with all polls is -8.5%, and -7.0% with polls of likely or registered voters. The RealClearPolitics average has Biden’s net favourability at +7, while Trump’s is -13.
I wrote on October 22 that there are two key measures where Biden is doing far better than Clinton. First, Biden is over 50% in national polls, which Clinton never achieved. Second, he has a net positive favourability rating, whereas both Clinton and Trump were very unpopular in 2016.
The US election results will come through on Wednesday from 10am AEDT. You can read my wrap of when polls close in the key states and results are expected. A key early results state is Florida; most polls close at 11am AEDT, but the very right-wing Panhandle closes an hour later.
In the FiveThirtyEight Classic Senate forecast, Democrats now have a 79% chance to win control. The most likely outcome is a 52-48 Democratic majority. The 80% confidence range is 48 to 56 Democratic seats. All these measures are unchanged since Thursday.
@Socrates
Probably.
My prediction:
Biden 320, Trump 218
Biden takes Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s second district. Trump takes Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
Not even going to try to venture a guess at the Senate.
On that podcast, it occurred to me that the really annoying music might not overlay the entire podcast, so I tried again. If you can survive the first minute it goes away.
They slowly make a few points:
* For the first time Hispanic voters will outnumber Black voters.
* Trump needs to win on election night, the massive early voting will erode and reverse any lead as those votes are counted.
* Voter suppression is bad. They have a plan to fight against that next year.
* They offer some encouraging thoughts at the 30 minute mark about violence and intimidation.
Well, the most likely outcome seems to be the Dems win the Presidency, House and maybe Senate. Unequivocally good outcome from where things are at the moment.
If the doGs above are good it will be a big enough win, and obvious early enough that it will head off Trump playing silly buggers with lawyers.
If Trump was to lose the popular vote but win the Electoral College….again……then i think there are real problems in the offing for the US. There will be big pressure to change the voting system to better reflect a democratic outcome and big push-back from the incumbents.
I think probably the most realistic concern is Trump trying to declare victory early. He has already laid the groundwork for that one to try and trash the place on the way out. Bastard. 🙁
Not complacent, but preety sure this is the end of Trump. A little worried that if/when he loses, what kind of damage can he do before January and Biden’s inauguration?
Comforting to hear others are feeling apprehensive about Trump doing 2016 all over again.
We’ve been watching CNN a bit but I can’t bear to watch any further til its all over. ABC is wall to wall Trump too. So a quick dash through PB keeps us up to date.
I was so wrong last time and here in 2018 so I’m too chicken to make a prediction.
Funny to look back and realise we thought George Bush was a bit ‘off’.
BH @ #105 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 11:07 am
One of my favourite slogans from back then was, “Practice Abstinence. No Bush. No Dick.” Unfortunately there’s no laughter this year.
Late Riser
Well that made me lighten up a bit. Thanks.
Imagine the stories to come out of the WH if Trump does lose and any chance Don Jnr thought he might have in 2024 is over. The GOP surely wouldn’t let him get past 1st base.
The Republicans in 2024 should go with someone like Condi Rice. The Republicans have several possibilities that are not tainted by Trump.
If they did that how would they get the white supremacists out to vote?
There was a previous comment on the”Biden emails”.. this from NBC..
“But the Wall Street Journal and Fox News — among the only news organizations that have been given access to key documents — found that the emails and other records don’t make that case. Leaving aside the many questions about their provenance, the materials offered no evidence that Joe Biden played any role in his son’s dealings in China, let alone profited from them, both news organisations concluded.”
There seems to be a concerted push by Murdoch to get the storey up but for once his journalists don’t want to go along… or is Rupert trying to have a bet each way?
PS Greenwald received a massive serve from his previous colleagues before he picked up his marbles & left.
A.R
The white supremacists vote is a bit overrated and Condi could depending on policies be competitive in places Trump can only dream of.
The shredders will be melting. And Little Donnie Trump just wants his daddy to notice him. He’d be cute if he wasn’t so transparently dangerous. As for the rest of The Family, apart from the threatened Ivanka/Jarred law suite, I haven’t seen much activity from them.
https://xkcd.com/2380/
Asha Leu “With the election only a day away, here is one of the greatest works of political satire ever made:”
Nothing beats the two aliens mocking the guy who threatens to vote for a third candidate with the taunt “go on throw your vote away”. Brilliant on so many levels.
BH @ #106 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 12:22 pm
And his girlfriend! 😯
Jaeger @ #113 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 12:01 pm
He’s a smart guy. “…some small but significant percentage of the time you’ll be wrong, and that’s why this works.”
Bennelong Lurker
Delayed wine delivery = 1st world problem.
Huh? Old comment popped up?
Too anxious to make a prediction !!!!!
Diogenes @ #56 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 1:29 am
I remember it well 🙂
Poll opening and closing times by State: https://ballotpedia.org/State_Poll_Opening_and_Closing_Times_(2020)
The East Coast is 16 hours behind Sydney/Melbourne, the West Coast three hours further, Hawaii and Alaska later again. Poll close times vary by State, between 6-9 PM local time, so mostly around Noon to 4 PM East Australian Daylight Time.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
98.7M early votes. I have to wonder how long this record will stand.
EDIT: will stand
Final 538 podcast before the election.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-final-reflections-on-the-2020-campaign-before-election-day/
Trump will win somewhere between 249 and 290 electoral votes – the difference being Arizona and Pennsylvania deciding the presidency. I think Trump will win North Carolina and Florida.
Who the hell knows who wins PA and Arizona? Biden would be favoured to win both but you never know given 2016 and how crazy the whole situation is.
Okay, the US election’s all but over. Traditionally, in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire they cast their vote at midnight & immediately announce the result. Biden received 5 votes; Trump, 0 – CNN.
But just down the road in Millsfield, Trump received 16 votes; Biden, 5. It looks like the election’s not quite over.
If you want to join a US election watch party with the crew from Essential media, here’s a link:
https://australiaathome.com.au/upcoming-conversations/us-election-watch-party
Lars Von Trier @ #124 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 4:00 pm
Dr Blind Freddie of the Tommy Institute, Dept of the Bleeding Obvious, counted 276 ‘spots’ on the backs of his eyelids this morning.
Make of it what you will.
mundo:
#FuckYouKeepCounting
The 538 podcast podcast finishes with this.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-final-reflections-on-the-2020-campaign-before-election-day/
Late Riser @ #131 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 5:06 pm
Arizona and Georgia most likely in my book.
Biden 416 including Montana!
Nate is hedging his bets better this time.
I had a bit of dickering with him in 2016 at about this stage to the effect that, if Trump won with 538 saying that Hilary had a 63% chance, he would have a lot of bum-covering to do. This time he has Biden at 89%, which is pretty firm, but his tables have a lot of “what if” scenarios that he didn’t use last time.
Biden is ahead at the moment, 4 votes to 0 at Dixieville Notch – better than 2016
Nates Opening comments in the most recent podcast posted above is spot on. 90% is only worrying if the guy on 10 is a sociopath, autocrat-wannabe, complete and utter smeghead. Or wtte
The problem with using statistics to predict a binary outcome is that someone always wins the lottery. Once the outcome is decided the chances cease to matter. A one in ten chance can happen. Maybe there’s a talented cartoonist out there willing to draw a picture of Russian roulette.
Mexicanbeemer says Tuesday, November 3, 2020 at 12:30 pm
I don’t think Condi would be interested. I think Nikki Haley would be far more likely to run.
Can we just have a moment to despair at how absurdly stupid it is to havw your election on a Tuesday?
The Late Show has suggested some medicine to help us through the election.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nDkRDsjvKAk
My guess and my guesses are always wrong:
Biden 330, Trump 208.
Not sure about the states so probably unexpected ones come into play and not sure of the senate makeup.
Kyle Kulinski has a good take on the weaknesses of Barack Obama’s campaign rhetoric for Joe Biden:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q56wfFwjzbw
3z,
It is a historical thing. When the US had elections in the early stages of the Union only property owners (primarily rural landowners) were eligible to vote. Given they went to church on Sunday, they then travelled to the nearest town on Monday and therefore were available to vote on Tuesday. That is the context and has never changed. And it was in November after harvest time.
Also the UK votes only on a Thursday. Obviously so they can have a massive piss up on the Friday.
A November election is convenient. The harvest is in but it’s not yet too cold.
Sunday, the Sabbath, could not be impinged, so allowing a day for travel, that rules out Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
Wednesday is market day when you’ll be busy in town selling your produce. Tuesday seems a logical choice. Or it did in the early 19th century.
EDIT – forgot the link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_Day_(United_States)
The states of Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, West Virginia, as well as the territory of the Northern Mariana Islands and Puerto Rico have an election day holiday.
Geoff Lambert:
Tuesday, November 3, 2020 at 6:04 pm
[‘Biden is ahead at the moment, 4 votes to 0 at Dixieville (sic)’]
Please get it right: Biden 5; Trump zero.
Traditionally the Republicans do better with older voters, and I believe older voters are more likely to vote on election day – they don’t have to take time off work. However, polls suggest that this year the Democrats will do better with this demographic. So, I hoping they will deliver Trump a nasty surprise tomorrow.
bc @ #144 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 7:07 pm
I did not know that. Thank you. It seems like an obvious solution that maintains a tradition that has outlived its original usefulness.
Noted.
I appreciate that Kirky, but they have managed to amend the Constitution once or twice before.
This whole show makes me reflect on how lucky we are to live in a place with free and fair elections that are designed to maximise the franchise, and that the peaceful transition of power is an absolute given.
bc @ #146 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 7:12 pm
Perhaps though older retired voters who are more susceptible to covid might not want to vote on Tuesday. If I lived in a state without mail in ballots (which would be my first preference) I’d be in line on an earlier day to get ahead of the crowds. Perhaps in 2020 the last day voters might not have quite as many from that older demographic. And that might invalidate a lot of the assumptions about who of Biden or Trump is favoured on the day.
But I’m with you on wishing Trump a nasty surprise.