US election minus two days

Biden is the clear favourite to win the US election, but there’s still a plausible chance for Trump, mainly due to a five-point Biden lead in Pennsylvania.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

This is a slightly modified version of an article I had published for The Conversation earlier Monday.

Two days before Wednesday’s US election (AEDT), the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate gives Joe Biden an 8.6% lead over Donald Trump (52.0% to 43.4%). Biden’s lead has decreased by 0.3% since last Thursday. In the key states, Biden leads by 8.3% in Wisconsin, 8.2% in Michigan, 4.8% in Pennsylvania, 3.1% in Arizona and 2.2% in Florida.

Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania is almost four points below his national lead, and that gives Trump hope of pulling off an Electoral College/popular vote split, as occurred at the 2016 election. Pennsylvania is the most likely “tipping-point” state that could put either Trump or Biden over the magic 270 Electoral Votes.

If Biden loses Pennsylvania, but wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, he would have 269 Electoral Votes, one short of 270. Either Maine’s or Nebraska’s second Congressional District could in that scenario give Biden the narrowest of Electoral College wins. These states award one Electoral Vote to the winner of each of their districts, and two to the statewide winner. All other states are winner-takes-all.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the tipping-point state (Wisconsin) by 0.8%, while winning the popular vote by 2.1% – a difference between the tipping-point and popular vote of 2.9%.

Analyst Nate Silver says while Trump can plausibly win, he would need the polls to be wrong by far more than in 2016. At this stage in 2016, the FiveThirtyEight forecast gave Trump a 35% chance; he currently has just a 10% chance. Trump only has a 3% chance to win the popular vote.

Trump had one very good poll result from a high-quality pollster: a Selzer Iowa poll gave him a seven-point lead in that state. But most high-quality polls have been far better for Biden: Siena polls for The New York Times gave Biden six-point leads in Arizona and Pennsylvania, a three-point lead in Florida and an 11-point lead in Wisconsin.

In FiveThirtyEight aggregates, Biden leads by 2.0% in North Carolina and 1.5% in Georgia. He trails by 0.3% in Ohio, 1.2% in Texas and 1.7% in Iowa. If Biden won all these states, he would win over 400 Electoral Votes. Florida is now in this group of states when it had previously been better for Biden.

Trump’s net job approval ratings have jumped two points since last Thursday. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, his net approval with all polls is -8.5%, and -7.0% with polls of likely or registered voters. The RealClearPolitics average has Biden’s net favourability at +7, while Trump’s is -13.

I wrote on October 22 that there are two key measures where Biden is doing far better than Clinton. First, Biden is over 50% in national polls, which Clinton never achieved. Second, he has a net positive favourability rating, whereas both Clinton and Trump were very unpopular in 2016.

The US election results will come through on Wednesday from 10am AEDT. You can read my wrap of when polls close in the key states and results are expected. A key early results state is Florida; most polls close at 11am AEDT, but the very right-wing Panhandle closes an hour later.

In the FiveThirtyEight Classic Senate forecast, Democrats now have a 79% chance to win control. The most likely outcome is a 52-48 Democratic majority. The 80% confidence range is 48 to 56 Democratic seats. All these measures are unchanged since Thursday.

206 comments on “US election minus two days”

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  1. Bludgers’ POTUS and Senate predictions so far are:

    Presidency
    Simon K Biden 416 Trump 122
    Frednk Biden 412 Trump 126
    Mexicanbeemer Biden 374 Trump 164
    Rational Leftist Biden 357 Trump 181
    NE Qld Biden 351 Trump 187
    Late Riser Biden 325 Trump 213
    Sonar Biden 307 Trump 231
    Kirky Biden 306 Trump 232
    Socrates Biden 305 Trump 233
    Nervous Nellie Biden 279 – Trump 259
    AOC Biden 232 Trump306

    Senate
    Rational Leftist Democrat 53 Trump 47
    Socrates Democrat 52 Republican 48
    NE Qld Dem 52 Rep 48
    Mexicanbeemer Dems 51 Reps 49
    Late Riser Dem 51 – 49 Reps
    Simon K 50-50
    Frednk 50-50

  2. When asked what happens if Trump wont leave the White House, Pelosi said something like, we will lock the gates and leave him in there…and just get on with things…..

  3. Skeptical that a Democratic senate candidate would outpoll Biden, unless Tillis is engulfed in a corruption scandal or something.

    In any case, Biden +2 is a status-quo result for NC right now. Though I’m going to split the difference between the presidential and senate numbers and call it Biden +3.5. 🙂

  4. Do people understand that the current words of Donald J Trump are those of an authoritatian leader?

    It just amazes me how his supporters can’t see it or perhaps they can and just don’t give a shit and don’t see the hypocrisy.

  5. This is what the President of the United States just said:

    Daniel Dale CNN Fact Checker
    @ddale8
    The president has now started assessing Biden’s body while fantasizing about beating him up. He says, “Those legs. Those legs have gotten very thin. Not a lot of base. You wouldn’t have to close – you wouldn’t have to close the fist.”

    What a disgusting thug.

  6. southpaw
    @nycsouthpaw
    ·
    14h
    The Trump camp is signaling in concert with the courts that, wherever Trump has a transient lead, they will try to stop counting of valid ballots and coerce state officials to certify an incomplete vote—throwing out uncounted absentee/military ballots. That’s a plan for a coup.

  7. Kirky @ #11 Monday, November 2nd, 2020 – 5:26 pm

    Do people understand that the current words of Donald J Trump are those of an authoritatian leader?

    It just amazes me how his supporters can’t see it or perhaps they can and just don’t give a shit and don’t see the hypocrisy.

    It’s the messianic cult thing, writ large, where they have been conned into the belief that their welfare rests in this single person’s hands. And once you’re in that mindset, getting out becomes all but impossible.

    So who will look after them? Fauci? or Trump?

    Fire Fauci! Fire Fauci! Fire Fauci! Fire Fauci!
    https://twitter.com/davidgura/status/1323133817113247745

  8. southpaw
    @nycsouthpaw
    ·
    14h
    The Trump camp is signaling in concert with the courts that, wherever Trump has a transient lead, they will try to stop counting of valid ballots and coerce state officials to certify an incomplete vote—throwing out uncounted absentee/military ballots. That’s a plan for a coup.

    Still not a thing you do unless you’re expecting to get thrashed.

    Also this: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/Early_Vote_Analysis_11_01.html

  9. a r,
    I’m hoping that, even if Trump succeeds in stopping some states from counting some votes that the vote for Biden will be so overwhelming that it will be irrelevant.

  10. My prediction

    Biden wins 280-258 (Dems win Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Omaha City)

    Disclaimer: This is if all valid votes in Pennsylvania end up being allowed to stand.

    Senate: 50-50

  11. Just a hunch on Trump. His antics will not win over any undecided voters. He literally repulses the people he doesn’t appeal to. And 94M votes have already been cast. He won’t get any of them back. What Trump is nakedly pursuing at the moment is his post-election plan. He won’t concede. The angry mob he is generating is why shops are boarding themselves up. It’s also why he is walling himself in.

  12. Poll Watch from The Washington Post:

    Poll watch
    Presidential election in Pennsylvania and Florida (Washington Post/ABC News, 810/824 likely voters)

    Pennsylvania
    Joe Biden: 51% (-3)
    Donald Trump: 44% (-1)
    Jo Jorgensen: 3%

    Florida
    Donald Trump: 50% (-1)
    Joe Biden: 48% (+1)
    Jo Jorgensen: 1%

    The Post’s final polls of swing states found little movement from September, despite a deluge of events since then. The pandemic continues to overwhelm concerns about, well, everything. In Pennsylvania, the president has focused for months on the falsehood that Biden would ban all fracking, which has forced Biden to repeat that he would not. (Biden would ban it on federal lands, while some in the party, but not him, want to go further.) Asked which candidate would “handle” the issue better, Trump has a four-point advantage; he has a six-point advantage on the economy, while Biden leads by nine on handling the pandemic. In Florida, the president’s strength comes partly from his clear advantage on the economy and partly from fighting Biden to a draw on the pandemic.

    Presidential election in Pennsylvania (Muhlenberg College/Morning Call, 419 likely voters)

    Joe Biden: 49% (-2)
    Donald Trump: 43% (-)
    Neither/other: 4% (+2)

    The last Pennsylvania-based pollster to survey the race there, Muhlenberg found no growth for Trump in the past few weeks, and a little resorting by undecided voters; the Libertarian Party is the only option on the ballot besides Biden and Trump. Four years ago, the same poll found a 48-to-42 point lead for Hillary Clinton in the final week, completely missing the break of undecided voters for Trump. Biden doesn’t have Clinton’s rock-bottom favorable ratings, but the pollster found a curious result on that question: 17 percent of voters had no opinion of Biden either way, compared with 7 percent who took that view of Trump.

    Presidential election in Iowa (Iowa poll, 814 likely voters)

    Donald Trump: 48% (+1)
    Joe Biden: 41% (-6)
    Someone else: 3%

    The legend of Iowa’s gold standard pollster grew after 2016, when it found a clear advantage for Trump, presaging a surge for Republicans across the upper Midwest. This poll finds the same sort of dynamic, but it’s lonelier now: Other polling has not picked up a shift away from Biden, and the internals here find a dramatic shift toward Trump among independents that is hard to square with both campaigns’ continued focus on the state.

    U.S. Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (CNN/SSRS, 892/953/932 likely voters)

    Arizona
    Mark Kelly (D): 52%
    Martha McSally (R): 45%

    Michigan
    Gary Peters (D): 52%
    John James (R): 40%
    Marcia Squier (G): 3%

    North Carolina
    Cal Cunningham (D): 47% (-)
    Thom Tillis (R): 44% (-2)
    Shannon Bray (L): 2% (-1)
    Kevin Hayes (C): 2% (+1)

  13. Torchbearer @ #8 Monday, November 2nd, 2020 – 5:20 pm

    When asked what happens if Trump wont leave the White House, Pelosi said something like, we will lock the gates and leave him in there…and just get on with things…..

    Sounds a bit like the plot of Great Expectations.

    Some Pilgrim will find a dust covered museum in 20 years.

  14. Been talking with my 30-year old son, who is somewhat of an internet gaming influencer with plenty of US colleagues. They have all voted and have their heads under the proverbial doona with fingers crossed.

    But he raised the counter-factual – ‘What if Hilary had of won in 2016 and faced a Republican House and Senate?’

    According to him and his cohort, what we are seeing now is ‘normal’ compared with the shitshow had HRC been in charge. The Civil War would be having a redux.

    There is some serious structural differences still apparent, and the 9 Governors flipped in 2018, and the House, might have a glimmer of hope.

  15. Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer!

    Re: The constitutionality of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact:

    It almost certainly cannot be done without Congressional consent under the Compacts Clause, although that could happen in the next Congress, if the Democrats win and cut the filibuster back enough to get it through.

    Its structure of using national popular vote, including the vote of non-compact states, may raise sovereign immunity questions, even if it is approved by Congress.

  16. Watched Nate Silver in his latest podcast, in short, his polling numbers are baked in and won’t change.

    Given Dotard’s telegraphed attempt to steal the election, it won’t work. On a couple of levels.

    The early vote counters – Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Ohio – will likely declare the winner on the night. Dotard needs them all.

    The next Dotard gambit of challenging all and every pre-poll and mail-in not counted on the night is a play which the ‘Deep State’ and Democrats/fellow travellers have well and truly wargamed.

    And thanks to 2018 mid-terms, the slow counting Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania all all Democrat Governors. Good luck!

  17. Tom the first and best @ #27 Monday, November 2nd, 2020 – 5:47 pm

    Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer!

    Re: The constitutionality of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact:

    It almost certainly cannot be done without Congressional consent under the Compacts Clause, although that could happen in the next Congress, if the Democrats win and cut the filibuster back enough to get it through.

    Its structure of using national popular vote, including the vote of non-compact states, may raise sovereign immunity questions, even if it is approved by Congress.

    The way I read it, the compact is constitutional as long as the overarching power of the Union is not diminished. As for non-compact states, they maintain their sovereignty. (But I too am not a lawyer!) Overall it seems a lot of effort over a lot of years unless there is optimism it would be allowed.

  18. In the last several weeks, there have been elections in Queensland, ACT, New Zealand, Northern Territory and tomorrow, the United States.

    The first four all returned victories for the “Good/Neutral” side. But I hypothesise, three months ago, would any of you have been willing to pay $500 each to guarantee a Biden win in the US but have the “Evil” side win all the remaining races?

  19. Sure. Trump being gone is priority #1.

    Anyways, going by the Github early vote tracker the Dem’s commanding lead in early votes (they start at +7M votes / 57%-43%, if you assume no defections on either side) drops if you filter out non-battleground states (on both sides).

    Whittle it down to just AZ, FL, IA, NC, NV, and PA, and they’re up a mere 1.4M votes (again assuming no defections), or 54.5%-45.5%.

    It’s a lot rosier if you assume a net of 10% defections from the GOP. Then the Dems have twice the buffer and are sitting on 59% -41%. Hopefully that’s happening. In those states specifically.

  20. But I hypothesise, three months ago, would any of you have been willing to pay $500 each to guarantee a Biden win in the US but have the “Evil” side win all the remaining races?

    Hypothetically, Yes and No.

  21. My prediction is that it’s going to be perilously close. I expect Biden definitely to win Arizona, where the impact of demographic changes is really significant. I think he will definitely also win Wisconsin and Michigan, where all reputable polling puts him a long way ahead.

    I don’t expect him to win North Carolina or Florida, where the message from the polling is a little more mixed. And I don’t think he is a serious chance of winning Ohio, Iowa or Texas.

    All of the above, if it turns out that way, puts Pennsylvania front and centre. I think the vote there will be very close, and we probably won’t know the outcome on the night, a circumstance which will bring various troublemakers out onto the street and won’t be good for anyone.

    There’s also a chance of an unexpected Trump win somewhere that could, under some scenarios, counteract a loss in Pennsylvania. Biden’s last minute dash to Minnesota makes me think there’s possibly a problem for the Dems there. And New Hampshire and Nevada are perhaps worth watching as well.

    Trump has not performed well as President and has also campaigned poorly until the last couple of weeks. He should have romped it in on the basis of the naturally conservative US electorate being inclined to vote against the side of politics with sympathy for the looters and burners.

    But my sense is that too many voters in the US have lost trust in his competency. Whereas, while many swinging voters don’t trust or like Biden’s side of politics, they trust Biden himself to do a reasonable job in the White House.

    Surely this will be enough to get Biden over the line. But it’s very difficult to be confident about that.

  22. When asked what happens if Trump wont leave the White House, Pelosi said something like, we will lock the gates and leave him in there…and just get on with things…..

    Cue the “Downfall” parody of Herr Drumpf in the White House bunker, learning that he lost the election.

  23. TAB
    • Biden: $1.57
    • Trump: $2.45

    LADBROKES
    • Biden: $1.50
    • Trump: $2.70

    BETFAIR
    • Biden: $1.51
    • Trump: $2.98

    SPORTSBET
    • Biden: $1.50
    • Trump: $2.75

    NEDS
    • Biden: $1.50
    • Trump: $2.70

  24. One of the big problems with current/recent polling is that if 50% plus people have voted, a lot of these people presumably would be hard to get involved in a poll. Any info on how pollsters handle this?

  25. Holdenhillbilly:

    There’s an arb opportunity there between TAB and Betfair. Outlay 1 on Biden @ TAB and 0.5268 on Trump at Betfair for a guaranteed return of 0.043.

  26. “Late Risersays:
    Monday, November 2, 2020 at 5:04 pm
    What is with this guy and walls?”…

    He is just getting used to it. That’s all what he will see from jail after he loses the election….

  27. I wonder whether the Republicans will challenge mail-in ballots if Trump is behind after the 3rd Nov……and actually need votes to win.

    Personally,I hope it’s all over bar the shouting with Biden getting a clear majority….but then again this is 2020 and nothing about this year surprises me anymore.

  28. Greensborough Growler @ #25 Monday, November 2nd, 2020 – 6:34 pm

    Torchbearer @ #8 Monday, November 2nd, 2020 – 5:20 pm

    When asked what happens if Trump wont leave the White House, Pelosi said something like, we will lock the gates and leave him in there…and just get on with things…..

    Sounds a bit like the plot of Great Expectations.

    Some Pilgrim will find a dust covered museum in 20 years.

    They’ll take away Marine 1 and the Presidential Limo too. So how’s he going to get around?

  29. Any bets a state actor takes a risk or tries some strong arm while the focus is on the US sh!tshow?

    China in Taiwan or India? Nth Korea launch something? India-Pakistan? Turkey? Russia invading the Caucasus?

    Speaking of the Caucasia and Turkey… Vale Robert Fisk. A giant of Journalism.

  30. Overall my view is that a 2016 style polling error is unlikely.
    – most polls ensure that don’t make the same mistake of under-sampling high-school educated voters.
    – the level of undecided voters is far lower and biden is polling above 50% in the states he needs to win so Trump needs more than just fence sitters.
    – the buzz of rolling the dice on an unknown is gone this time around

    On the other hand the effectiveness of an aggressive voter suppression strategy potentually backed by stacked courts is the unknown. I hope the bully’s bluff is called by an emphatic result but, like most here, I’m anxious.

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