Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
This is a slightly modified version of an article I had published for The Conversation earlier Monday.
Two days before Wednesday’s US election (AEDT), the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate gives Joe Biden an 8.6% lead over Donald Trump (52.0% to 43.4%). Biden’s lead has decreased by 0.3% since last Thursday. In the key states, Biden leads by 8.3% in Wisconsin, 8.2% in Michigan, 4.8% in Pennsylvania, 3.1% in Arizona and 2.2% in Florida.
Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania is almost four points below his national lead, and that gives Trump hope of pulling off an Electoral College/popular vote split, as occurred at the 2016 election. Pennsylvania is the most likely “tipping-point” state that could put either Trump or Biden over the magic 270 Electoral Votes.
If Biden loses Pennsylvania, but wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, he would have 269 Electoral Votes, one short of 270. Either Maine’s or Nebraska’s second Congressional District could in that scenario give Biden the narrowest of Electoral College wins. These states award one Electoral Vote to the winner of each of their districts, and two to the statewide winner. All other states are winner-takes-all.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the tipping-point state (Wisconsin) by 0.8%, while winning the popular vote by 2.1% – a difference between the tipping-point and popular vote of 2.9%.
Analyst Nate Silver says while Trump can plausibly win, he would need the polls to be wrong by far more than in 2016. At this stage in 2016, the FiveThirtyEight forecast gave Trump a 35% chance; he currently has just a 10% chance. Trump only has a 3% chance to win the popular vote.
Trump had one very good poll result from a high-quality pollster: a Selzer Iowa poll gave him a seven-point lead in that state. But most high-quality polls have been far better for Biden: Siena polls for The New York Times gave Biden six-point leads in Arizona and Pennsylvania, a three-point lead in Florida and an 11-point lead in Wisconsin.
In FiveThirtyEight aggregates, Biden leads by 2.0% in North Carolina and 1.5% in Georgia. He trails by 0.3% in Ohio, 1.2% in Texas and 1.7% in Iowa. If Biden won all these states, he would win over 400 Electoral Votes. Florida is now in this group of states when it had previously been better for Biden.
Trump’s net job approval ratings have jumped two points since last Thursday. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, his net approval with all polls is -8.5%, and -7.0% with polls of likely or registered voters. The RealClearPolitics average has Biden’s net favourability at +7, while Trump’s is -13.
I wrote on October 22 that there are two key measures where Biden is doing far better than Clinton. First, Biden is over 50% in national polls, which Clinton never achieved. Second, he has a net positive favourability rating, whereas both Clinton and Trump were very unpopular in 2016.
The US election results will come through on Wednesday from 10am AEDT. You can read my wrap of when polls close in the key states and results are expected. A key early results state is Florida; most polls close at 11am AEDT, but the very right-wing Panhandle closes an hour later.
In the FiveThirtyEight Classic Senate forecast, Democrats now have a 79% chance to win control. The most likely outcome is a 52-48 Democratic majority. The 80% confidence range is 48 to 56 Democratic seats. All these measures are unchanged since Thursday.
Scaramouchi said something interesting (and comforting) on Have you Been Paying Attention Tonight…. there have been 10s of millions of extra votes cast this time, Trumps base has not increased at all since the last election, therefore Biden will win in a landslide.
He does have a point. Trump hasnt recruited millions to his cause, yet many millions more are voting.
We live in nervous hope.
@touchbearer
It may be the polling error, this time, goes the other way.
America:
Glenn Greenwald (a respected, generally left-wing journalist that met with Snowden to exposed the NSA spying) recently left his own publication, The Intercept, because he was being silenced on reporting on negative news for Biden. That news being the (now verified) emails from his son’s laptop possibly implicating him in some dodgy behaviour. It is now at least substantiated enough that questions deserve to be asked and answered. It is pretty insane that the news seems to be censored nearly everywhere solely because the media really want Trump out. It’s like what murdoch would do here but even worse.
Trump is clearly terrible, but we hear about every negative rumour about him – even when there’s no proof at all. On the other side, Biden has most of the media and the tech giants behind him to cover up news that if it were about Trump would be everywhere by now. Saying that it is “unverified” or “misinformation” is a bad excuse when it has been confirmed by people in the email chains that the emails are real. Not to mention that no one has actually even denied that the emails are real.
I’ve come to the decision that matter who wins, America loses.
As for who I think will win: probably Biden by a small margin.
538 has PA back out to Biden +5.3%. Texas narrowing, Florida widening.
Im not making any predictions. I’m still getting over four years ago. I’ve not been the same since.
Trump has plummeted down to 9% in the 538 forecast. 🙂
For Trump to win he will need
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
Texas
Iowa
This would get Trump to 279
Diogenes @ #56 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 1:29 am
And 2019 in Australia.
Doctor Diogenes, is there anything you can take for anxiety-induced nausea? 😆
Damn Nate Silver! 😆
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/
Other MB. Or, in other words, Trump can get away with losing only Wisconsin and Michigan.
I thought that under some scenarios he could get away with losing Arizona as well, but maths isn’t my strongest suit, and the effect of the States that don’t do winner takes all confused me a bit.
Amy Siskind
@Amy_Siskind
·
1m
We’re talking an awful lot about FL and PA, but if Trump loses NC or OH or GA or TX – all of which are quite possible – it is essentially over as well.
Joe Biden in Ohio. Just putting it out there.
Total Early Votes: 97,098,946 • In-Person Votes: 35,436,991 • Mail Ballots Returned: 61,661,955
Nationally, voters have cast 70.4% of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election
Republicans and an ultra conservative judge trying to steal Texas’ EC votes.
https://lawandcrime.com/2020-election/ultra-conservative-judge-assigned-to-texas-republicans-lawsuit-which-seeks-to-toss-out-117000-ballots-in-harris-county/
So Nervous Nelly here.
c@t: the most interesting aspect of that latest Nate Silver article was the discussion of the polling trends that apparently show a swing to Biden among rural White voters and a swing to Trump among African-Americans and Hispanics.
The always disparate US electorate is perhaps even more complex in 2020 than ever before.
I suspect that the swing to Trump among minorities is indicative of a growing law and order vote there. This could be more substantial than anyone knows. Maybe a swing to Trump in the inner areas of the Twin Cities is what unexpectedly took Biden there a few days ago. I’m increasingly feeling that Minnesota is going to be a state to watch tomorrow (and thanks c@t for the link on that you gave me last night).
@Simon Katich
Some good news to follow-up on that: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-texas-voting/u-s-judge-denies-texas-republican-bid-to-scrap-127000-votes-idUSKBN27I29V?il=0
Even the ultra-conservative judge looking at it could see it was straight-up voter suppression.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/11/02/trump-biden-live-updates/
1 day to go.
Real Clear Politics average Biden + 6.8% and swing states +2.7%.
538 Biden+ 7.9%
Swing states: , Minnesota + 9.2%, Michigan + 8.2%, Wisconsin +8.1%, Nevada + 5.9%, Pennsylvania +4.8% (Biden wins election with those states) – then Arizona + 2.6%, Florida +2.5%, North Carolina +1.9%, Georgia +0.8%
I watched an interesting Youtube analysis on Sunday where it was assumed that every state would be won by Trump where the difference between Trump and Biden was within the averaged polling Margin of error.
Even in that case Trump lost. Apparently the 2016 win wasn’t a failure in polling as apart from Pennsylvania (I think) the results were within the margins of error however it seems that it all fell Trumps way.
This time, with Trump being the incumbent, I don’t think it’s likely.
I’m not sure I can handle this. What I want to see is either North Carolina or Florida switch, both will report early therefore the result will be known. Biden isn’t losing any states Hilary won in 2016. Trump has a very narrow way to the White House.
Here is hoping that the American citizens are smart enough to see thru his bullshit and lies.
And if Trump wins – each polling company will be out of business. Other than Trafalgar.
Goodies 1, baddies 0
Sounds like Trump knows he likely to lose and his trying to put all his chips in.
Final wrap from the Lincoln Project.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/state-of-the-vote-the-whole-enchilada/id1514968525?i=1000496939151
citizen @ #73 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 9:10 am
Here’s the footage (starts at 1:00)
https://youtu.be/DA4eZYbPjFQ
That judge tore the repugs a new one
I say that Donald Trump will win the US election by a landslide and four more years for our great Republican Party
Joe Biden as no chance of being President
https://twitter.com/sergiosminca/status/1323403065567768577
Wayne @ #79 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 9:55 am
I suppose you’re the same ‘Wayne’ker who said that the LNP were going to win the Queensland election?
Next! 🙄
So, after having my faith in humanity somewhat restored by Australians and Kiwis in recent weeks, after receiving a huge morale boost from witnessing the massive pendulum of world politics swing to the left with the rise of the Greens, I am now officially ready to deal with looming swing back to the right as a result of the circus that is the US Election.
Now, it is highly likely that Biden will win the election, if the polls are to be believed anyway. The problem is, as we have already established beyond any doubt whatsoever, Biden is a war criminal who is responsible for the invasion of Iraq, and thus he does not deserve anyone’s good graces.
However, I steadfastly refuse to allow Biden’s transgressions make me a lesser person. Therefore, I have decided that I will take my leave of this blog for the next day in order to be gracious and allow all of you to enjoy the moment. As I said awhile ago, there would be a “5 minute sigh of relief” when the Trump era ends, and I think it’s important that we celebrate that moment without letting Biden’s terrible record ruin it.
Hopefully by the next time we speak Trump will be on the way out. At that point, I’m going to ask you all a very important question, but don’t worry about that now. It’s far too late for you lot to start worrying about tomorrow now…
Enjoy! 😀
“Scaramouchi said something interesting (and comforting) on Have you Been Paying Attention Tonight…. there have been 10s of millions of extra votes cast this time, Trumps base has not increased at all since the last election, therefore Biden will win in a landslide.
He does have a point.”
Depends on how many people turn up tomorrow. It could be way down because so many have already voted – and its possible the overall turnout will not be any greater than 2016.
meher baba @ #67 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 7:39 am
meher baba,
I think the swing to Trump among African_American males may be due to the Rapper effect. Or as we say in Australia, ‘BSDs’. 😀 Those young men have been conditioned to look up to norm-shatterers who skate along the edge of illegality in order to be anti-establishment, like they deem Trump to have been all his life. Also, they worship $$. Just like Trump. And Kanye. Plus, on a more serious note they probably appreciate the prison reform policy he signed into law.
Turnout will be greater this year than 2020.
Big A Adrian @ #83 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 9:24 am
Low turnout tomorrow would actually be a great outcome, given that all evidence suggests that the 100M early votes skew heavily to Biden.
However estimates seem to be around 50-60M votes cast on the day. Or at least that’s what the Github guy is expecting.
Big A Adrian,
The only Unknown Known (I think that’s right 😀 ), is how many Trump supporters who didn’t vote in 2016 but who support him now, the Trump campaign can turn out this time to expand his numbers.
Holdenhillbilly @ #70 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 8:58 am
Hmm, Florida has gone up and Georgia has gone down (within the MoE).
The trouble is that Trump will claim (or at least try to claim) victory as soon as any count indicates the possibility of him getting the 271 he needs irrespective of the actual facts on the ground.
Socrates – what the hell I’ll have my two bobs worth:
Biden 275 – Trump 263
Senate Dem 50 – Rep 50
I wonder if anyone will be bold enough to go with a 269-269!
A non-scalable fence is being re-erected around the WH.
My prediction is that as of close of counting tomorrow night it’ll be something close, hopefully falling on Biden’s side so Trump can’t try to steal it.
After all counting is finished I’d be surprised is Biden isn’t around 306 or more.
GoldenSmaug @ #88 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 10:45 am
Listen to that podcast Confessions put up from The Lincoln Project, they have war-gamed the possible scenarios and have a team ready to pounce on the Trumpist bad actors.
Why do tv producers think that putting muzak background to their reports is some kind of enhancement? It’s as awful as a bleeding laughter track!
NY Times has un-paywalled its 2020 election coverage so you don’t need a sub to access its articles. I assume other media outlets will do the same.
pritu @ #94 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 10:18 am
If you’re referring to the Lincoln Project podcast, for me it’s worse than a laugh track. The repetitive rapidly rising and falling bunch of notes breaks my concentration. It’s awful. I only managed 30 seconds.
Simon K, Expat and others:
Regarding that conservative judge’s ruling on the Texas drive by votes, I wonder if a few of the non-religious nutter conservatives are starting to see the writing on the wall? Stealing Texas will not change the result for Trump if Pennsylvania and other states change hands. But such decisions will guarantee that judges like that have no chance of advancement in the next 4 to 8 years. As per Keating, never rule out self-interest as the motive.
Bludgers’ POTUS and Senate predictions so far are: (Apologies if I missed anyone; I won’t have time to further update this, though others are welcome to do so.)
Presidency
Simon K Biden 416 Trump 122
Frednk Biden 412 Trump 126
Mexicanbeemer Biden 374 Trump 164
Work to Rule Biden 368 Trump 170
Rational Leftist Biden 357 Trump 181
NE Qld Biden 351 Trump 187
Late Riser Biden 325 Trump 213
Sonar Biden 307 Trump 231
Kirky Biden 306 Trump 232
Socrates Biden 305 Trump 233
Cameron C Biden 280 Trump 258
Nervous Nellie Biden 279 Trump 259
Terminator Biden 275 Trump 263
DavidWH Biden 269 Trump 269
AOC Biden 232 Trump306
Senate
Rational Leftist Democrat 53 Republican 47
NE Qld Dem 52 Rep 48
Socrates Democrat 52 Republican 48
Work to Rule Democrat 52 Republican 48
Mexicanbeemer Dems 51 Reps 49
Late Riser Dem 51 – 49 Reps
Cameron C 50 – 50
Simon K 50-50
Frednk 50-50
Terminator 50 – 50
With the election only a day away, here is one of the greatest works of political satire ever made:
https://youtu.be/fCrMsy82Qnc
Wayne @ #79 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 9:55 am
Sure Wayne. Next you’ll be telling us Bill Shor…..oh, wait