Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,347 comments on “Around the traps”

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  1. Will the federal government take ANY semblance of responsibility for the large number of Covd-19 cases on vessels off the WA coast?

  2. Fcs! Peta Credlin is married to the former National Secretary of the Liberal Party! How the hell can she be considered a fair dealer!?!

  3. More than 240 people will undergo testing for hepatitis B and C, and HIV, after it was revealed single-use blood glucose-testing kits were used on multiple people in Victoria’s bungled hotel quarantine program.
    ________________
    For crying out loud can it get any worse.

  4. laughtong @ #1213 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 5:51 pm

    frednk @ #1201 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 5:46 pm

    The lady with a large bank account and no soul to sell to Murdoch gets a mention in the age.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/are-peta-credlin-s-corona-performances-journalism-20201019-p566ex.html

    Interesting. This was open for comments earlier but none appeared. Now not open for comments. Guess they did not like the feedback

    I was able to post a comment just now. I think the moderator is probably still going through all the comments. I guess we just have to wait and see if they are posted.

  5. BK
    Foreign ships with foreign crew members coming to Australia from international waters bearing covid-19 infected crew . ‘Obviously’ a State responsibility 🙂

  6. Whilst nothing is ever Scomo’s fault, I was curious abut this story about unexpected NZ travellers now arriving in Adelaide, without clearance. They now have to go into quarantine, reducing the capacity to expatriate stranded Australians overseas trying to get home.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-19/new-zealanders-arrive-despite-sa-not-being-in-travel-bubble/12782264

    So my question is, if nothing is ever Scomo’s fault, how did Daniel Andrews cause this one?

  7. Just read the article in the Age about Credlin. The author accuses Andrews of playing politics when he refused to accept a false statement and called her out for the tactic of repeating something continuously until it is accepted as fact.
    In my mind he wasn’t playing politics but just refusing to be used to promote someone else’s lying for political gain.

  8. Maybe the Morrison government could use its extensive experience with turning back refugees to ensure that covid carrying ships do not bring the virus to Australia. These are on water matters and we don’t need to know how they do it, just that it gets done.

  9. It’s enough to drive a girl to drink. Virtually the first half of The Drum was devoted to the terrible situation in victoria and what a failure the vic gov is. All interviews were with Hanrahans and they mocked the problems with the NZ bubble.

  10. ” Will the federal government take ANY semblance of responsibility for the large number of Covd-19 cases on vessels off the WA coast?”

    Will fish take to riding bicycles?

  11. Worst generation in history, bar none.

    As an economic and political unit of analysis, generation is flawed. The differences of economic class within a generation are far more salient and consequential than the overall differences between generations.

    But I think it is fair to say that the most powerful members of the Boomer Generation are the worst generation of elites the world has ever seen. The reason is that for the first time in recorded history a generation is leaving subsequent generations worse off in material wellbeing. That is really remarkable. And it is even worse than that – there is a high risk that the planet has been permanently damaged because of the greed, stubbornness, and lack of imagination of the Boomer leadership class.

  12. Nicholas

    To be fair, the problems are largely inherited. This is the first generation to recognise them and try and deal with them.

  13. Labor votes for Coalition’s billions in tax cuts for the rich

    It is an image that captured Labor’s class betrayal on July 3, the first day of the new federal parliament.

    A division had been called in the House of Representatives over the Coalition government’s bill for huge tax cuts, which will disproportionately benefit the rich, erode progressive income tax by making marginal tax rates flatter, and force more cuts to public health, education and welfare.

    On one side sat the sole Greens MP Adam Bandt and independent MP Andrew Wilkie. On the other, Labor and Coalition MPs.

    The tax cuts then passed through the Senate the following day, with only Greens senators voting against.

    By voting for these cuts, Labor has once again betrayed the interests of working people, as have right-wing populist parties like Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, Katter’s Australian Party, the Centre Alliance and Jacqui Lambie Network.

    https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/labor-votes-coalitions-billions-tax-cuts-rich


  14. More than 240 people will undergo testing for hepatitis B and C, and HIV, after it was revealed single-use blood glucose-testing kits were used on multiple people in Victoria’s bungled hotel quarantine program.

    Unbelievable but if true to call it third world is an insult to the third world

  15. Western Australia has had a number of covid infected ships. NZ has had infections get into their community via the port. So how come we are not hearing about infected crews in ports on the Eastern sea board.
    What is different, are they not testing, do the ships have different nationality crews.

  16. Nicholas, I hope truly that you enjoy a healthy old age and come to understand the other end of disdain. I too was guilty of disdain, so I cannot think too harshly of you. But I suspect your generation will wear the label of watching, knowing and standing by, despite efforts of a valiant few. (A bit like most of history.) It is easy to blame your parents.

  17. Taylormade @ #1205 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 2:59 pm

    More than 240 people will undergo testing for hepatitis B and C, and HIV, after it was revealed single-use blood glucose-testing kits were used on multiple people in Victoria’s bungled hotel quarantine program.
    ________________
    For crying out loud can it get any worse.

    The failures of trickle down including deskilling and defunding the public sector while pouring billions into the pockets of corrupt private enterprises will take decades to fix. The LNP are all set on making it worse and the ALP isn’t fully committed to fixing it.

    that a moron partisan Murdoch sewer dweller doesn’t understand this is no big surprise.

  18. Zoom, thanks to Labor, the tax cuts are current.

    But since you asked…

    Yet another case of Labor teaming up with the Libs just today.

  19. Nicholas @ #1220 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 3:44 pm

    Worst generation in history, bar none.

    As an economic and political unit of analysis, generation is flawed. The differences of economic class within a generation are far more salient and consequential than the overall differences between generations.

    But I think it is fair to say that the most powerful members of the Boomer Generation are the worst generation of elites the world has ever seen. The reason is that for the first time in recorded history a generation is leaving subsequent generations worse off in material wellbeing. That is really remarkable. And it is even worse than that – there is a high risk that the planet has been permanently damaged because of the greed, stubbornness, and lack of imagination of the Boomer leadership class.

    To an extent they’ve been played by themselves, but not only are they delighted to leave behind a much worse world than the one they took for themselves they are very happy to leave large portions of themselves to poverty and unnecessary death as well.

    What history writes about our half century of trickle down disaster and cruelty will be very interesting, but this period of history is gonna be called dumb, because that what it has been.

    Really interesting Ezra Kline dropped today, well worth a listen. Small d democracy, political democracy and economic democracy.

  20. Oakeshott Country @ #1223 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 6:59 pm


    More than 240 people will undergo testing for hepatitis B and C, and HIV, after it was revealed single-use blood glucose-testing kits were used on multiple people in Victoria’s bungled hotel quarantine program.

    Unbelievable but if true to call it third world is an insult to the third world

    Mikakos should resign !

  21. Firefox @ #1229 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 4:13 pm

    Zoom, thanks to Labor, the tax cuts are current.

    But since you asked…

    ” rel=”nofollow ugc”>

    Yet another case of Labor teaming up with the Libs just today.

    The whole assume you are going to win big and fix then didn’t work for the greens with the CPRS or Gillard’s scheme, nor did it work with the tax cuts or any number of absurdly bad bills labor voted for.

    Time Labor and the Greens stopped playing politics, Labor is bad at it, and the greens are much much worse. Time they started standing on and voting for what they believe in.

  22. WeWantPaul @ #1231 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 7:16 pm

    Nicholas @ #1220 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 3:44 pm

    Worst generation in history, bar none.

    As an economic and political unit of analysis, generation is flawed. The differences of economic class within a generation are far more salient and consequential than the overall differences between generations.

    But I think it is fair to say that the most powerful members of the Boomer Generation are the worst generation of elites the world has ever seen. The reason is that for the first time in recorded history a generation is leaving subsequent generations worse off in material wellbeing. That is really remarkable. And it is even worse than that – there is a high risk that the planet has been permanently damaged because of the greed, stubbornness, and lack of imagination of the Boomer leadership class.

    To an extent they’ve been played by themselves, but not only are they delighted to leave behind a much worse world than the one they took for themselves they are very happy to leave large portions of themselves to poverty and unnecessary death as well.

    What history writes about our half century of trickle down disaster and cruelty will be very interesting, but this period of history is gonna be called dumb, because that what it has been.

    Really interesting Ezra Kline dropped today, well worth a listen. Small d democracy, political democracy and economic democracy.

    We all know many boomers who are greedy stubborn and lack imagination. Sad but true.

  23. ” There is likely more than 50 people in Melbourne with coronavirus that authorities do not know about, according to one epidemiologist who is backing the Victorian government’s cautious approach to re-opening.

    Professor Tony Blakely, a Professorial Fellow in Epidemiology at Melbourne University, said the delay in re-opening was a smart move considering there were still 15 ‘mystery cases’ with no known source in the community – meaning dozens more are likely going to be infectious for at least two weeks.”

    Says someone who knows what he’s talking about.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-business-groups-and-epidemiologists-respond-to-eased-restrictions-in-victoria-australian-death-toll-stands-at-904-20201019-p566au.html

    If Peta Credlin and her ilk had their way Victoria would be experiencing thousands of new cases a day with no end in sight, like comparably-sized US States (e.g. Indiana).

  24. No, that doesn’t worry me. Sometimes the Greens support Liberal legislation, too.

    Most legislation goes through parliament with basically the support of all parties.

    I note that – in the situation we’re talking about – most of the indies supported the legislation, too, not just Teh Evil Duopoly.

  25. zoomster @ #1237 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 4:21 pm

    No, that doesn’t worry me. Sometimes the Greens support Liberal legislation, too.

    Most legislation goes through parliament with basically the support of all parties.

    I note that – in the situation we’re talking about – most of the indies supported the legislation, too, not just Teh Evil Duopoly.

    That the indies (mostly like the LNP but with less brains and more ego) support something and almost certainly belong in the bin as well isn’t perhaps surprising but it is the worst defence for voting for very bad legislation ever.

  26. WeWantPaul @ #1014 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:53 am


    I’m a lawyer, but we don’t need to go that far, in fact the court didn’t so it would be pretty stupid for us to do what they didn’t do. But not counting votes in a democracy seems a pretty fundamental thing, if they don’t get that they are even worse than a tinpot dictatorship pretend judiciary.

    Surely if you are going to conduct a recount of votes, you must recount all of them, not just some of them.

  27. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1239 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 4:26 pm

    WeWantPaul @ #1014 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:53 am


    I’m a lawyer, but we don’t need to go that far, in fact the court didn’t so it would be pretty stupid for us to do what they didn’t do. But not counting votes in a democracy seems a pretty fundamental thing, if they don’t get that they are even worse than a tinpot dictatorship pretend judiciary.

    Surely if you are going to conduct a recount of votes, you must recount all of them, not just some of them.

    Why would you recount vote tallies that are not in doubt? Not as big a crime against democracy as not counting an uncertain amount of votes, but still not all that sensible.

    Perhaps I don’t understand your point in context.

  28. Rex Douglas

    We all know many boomers who are greedy stubborn and lack imagination. Sad but true

    Always plenty of greedy in every generation. But re Boomers, the ‘trickle down theory” was a product of pre Boomer pricks. All ya Maggies and Ronnies and Hayeks and von Mises etc etc and the monied who bank rolled them.

  29. Steve777

    Thanks for that link.
    Both Dan and Brett explained today that the narrative behind the mystery cases was at least as important as the infection numbers. But the media don’t listen. Nor the Libs apparently.

  30. poroti @ #1241 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 4:28 pm

    Rex Douglas

    We all know many boomers who are greedy stubborn and lack imagination. Sad but true

    Always plenty of greedy in every generation. But re Boomers, the ‘trickle down theory” was a product of pre Boomer pricks. All ya Maggies and Ronnies and Hayeks and von Mises etc etc and the monied who bank rolled them.

    It is hard to pinpoint where between Whitlam and Howard where it all went wrong, but it went badly, badly wrong and Howard burned down anything good he could get away with.

  31. It’s extremely frustrating!
    The federal government are responsible for a big fat zero.
    Honestly, wtf is wrong with people??
    We have a federal government steeped in dubious procurement practices, scams, conflicts of interests, border debacles, aged care disasters & the list continues.
    Then there’s Gladys!
    Poor, poor Gladys..grrrr
    What do the national media focus on?
    Dan Andrews

  32. Assantdj @ #1235 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 7:01 pm

    Western Australia has had a number of covid infected ships. NZ has had infections get into their community via the port. So how come we are not hearing about infected crews in ports on the Eastern sea board.
    What is different, are they not testing, do the ships have different nationality crews.

    Nah, the MUA have been keeping them stranded off the East Coast, didn’t you hear about it? ProMo will have to say it a million more times then. 😆

  33. .funny that one of Nicholas’ measures is materialism.

    Material wellbeing is not the same thing as materialism.

    But I suspect your generation will wear the label of watching, knowing and standing by, despite efforts of a valiant few

    Millennials have been infinitely more civic-minded and socially responsible than Boomer decision-makers, but Millennials are not yet running our society.

    And when they do get to that point, it may be too late to undo the damage that Boomer elites have done to the climate through their disastrous policy choices. We may not be able to avoid the most catastrophic climate scenarios. But I hope that it will be possible to reverse the inequality crisis, make housing a basic right for all instead of a wealth accumulation tool for some, and provide public services that are truly universal in scope and of excellent quality.

    To make it clear for people with limited comprehension abilities, and / or people who take contrarian stances because they lack stimulation in their lives, I am specifically reserving this criticism for a sliver of the Boomer generation – those who dominated our economic policymaking from the 1980s onwards.

  34. Steve777 @ #1247 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 7:20 pm

    ” There is likely more than 50 people in Melbourne with coronavirus that authorities do not know about, according to one epidemiologist who is backing the Victorian government’s cautious approach to re-opening.

    Professor Tony Blakely, a Professorial Fellow in Epidemiology at Melbourne University, said the delay in re-opening was a smart move considering there were still 15 ‘mystery cases’ with no known source in the community – meaning dozens more are likely going to be infectious for at least two weeks.”

    Says someone who knows what he’s talking about.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-business-groups-and-epidemiologists-respond-to-eased-restrictions-in-victoria-australian-death-toll-stands-at-904-20201019-p566au.html

    If Peta Credlin and her ilk had their way Victoria would be experiencing thousands of new cases a day with no end in sight, like comparably-sized US States (e.g. Indiana).

    …And blaming Dan Andrews for it. Hmm, maybe that’s why they want him to do it, so they can put him to the electoral sword finally after the 3rd Wave drowns him metaphorically. I mean, Peta Credlin was the Cruella De Ville of Australian politics that came up with the ‘Carbon Tax’ lie. I wouldn’t put it past her to have strategised something along those lines with her Liberal scumbag maaates.

  35. D @ #1244 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 7:47 pm

    It’s extremely frustrating!
    The federal government are responsible for a big fat zero.
    Honestly, wtf is wrong with people??
    We have a federal government steeped in dubious procurement practices, scams, conflicts of interests, border debacles, aged care disasters & the list continues.
    Then there’s Gladys!
    Poor, poor Gladys..grrrr
    What do the national media focus on?
    Dan Andrews

    Wait till Albo and the opposition get wind of this, there’ll be hell to pay!
    .
    .
    .
    ..
    .
    .
    Hell I tells ya!~@$%#@$@#!#@!!!$#!@$#@!#$@!$@!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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