Victorian COVID-19 polling, etc.

A new poll suggests Victorians remain sympathetic to Daniel Andrews, despite waning patience with COVID-19 restrictions.

It’s time for a new general discussion thread, but do take note of the other important new posts below this one before diving in:

• New state polling from Western Australia suggests there will be little left of the parliamentary Liberal Party after the election there in March;

• Guest contributor Adrian Beaumont offers his weekly situation report on the ever-eventful US election campaign;

• I launch my Queensland election guide, and in doing so provide a thread for discussion of that state’s October 31 election;

• I humbly plead for donations, as I do every two months.

Other than that, there is one further poll to report on in the shape of a Roy Morgan SMS poll from Victoria, following on from a similar efforts two and three weeks ago. This finds the Labor state government’s two-party lead unchanged at 51.5-48.5, but Daniel Andrews is down nine on approval to 61% and up nine on disapproval to 39%. There has also been movement in sentiment against existing COVID-19 restrictions, with a 61-39 split in favour of lifting the five kilometre rule (50-50 last time), 59-41 in favour of visits to immediate family members (55-45 in favour last time) and 56-44 in favour of a resumption of table service (63-37 against last time). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 2223.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,675 comments on “Victorian COVID-19 polling, etc.”

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  8. The punters bought and sold for $1000 last election and will be bought and sold for a $1000 tomorrow. Over a trillon dollars in debt,yet who cares because its Smoko and crew running the joint. The Lib spivs will still be the best economic managers as usual.

  11. The Trump Show just keeps getting more bizarre by the minute:

    Mr. Trump, who historically hates hospitals and anything related to illness, has been hankering to get released, according to two people close to him, and some aides expressed fear that he would pressure Dr. Conley into releasing him by claiming to feel better than he actually does. But advisers were also troubled by the doctors’ prediction that they might release him on Monday because if they do not, it would signal that the president is not doing as well as indicated. They also worried that a premature return could lead to a second trip to the hospital if his condition worsens.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/04/us/politics/trump-virus.html

  14. Someone has control of Dotard’s Twitter account, pretending to be him. But without the insults, racism and self dealing – a poor shadow of the man…

  16. Only time I took an interest in her website was when ShowsOn was over there posting as ‘Adam Smith’ it was extremely hilarious. He confused them so much that they were agreeing with him at the end without knowing why. One of the highlights of the internet for me.

  18. There are an avalanche of these Dotard tweets, all bot-like, all caps eg

    SPACE FORCE! VOTE!
    401 (K)! VOTE!

    But the great leader ain’t doing the tweeting..

  20. I find it curious that no one has commented yet that the President of the United States is currently in the custody of the military.

  28. Greensborough Growler @ #1622 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 9:22 pm

    ajm @ #1620 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 10:16 pm

    I find it curious that no one has commented yet that the President of the United States is currently in the custody of the military.

    So, like todays little adventure was a jail break attempt.

    Seriously?

    Everything about Trumps America is totally off the page, so who knows? Not me, but it would be foolish not to explore all the possibilities.

  29. So it turns out the UK’s 35 million pound ‘state of the art’ test and trace system is based on an Excel spreadsheet. As if thats not bad enough – the reason it stopped populating was the max number of columns was exceeded – 16384 (xfd). Yes thats right – they were actually entering cases by the column, not the row. Had they used rows it would still be working – as the row limit is over a million.

    Thats gobsmacking – even for that joke of a government.

  30. Big A Adrian @ #1629 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 10:39 pm

    So it turns out the UK’s 35 million pound ‘state of the art’ test and trace system is based on an Excel spreadsheet. As if thats not bad enough – the reason it stopped populating was the max number of columns was exceeded – 16384 (xfd). Yes thats right – they were actually entering cases by the column, not the row. Had they used rows it would still be working – as the row limit is over a million.

    Thats gobsmacking – even for that joke of a government.

    That is gobsmacking! They never heard of the “transpose” function?

    https://www.educba.com/rows-to-columns-in-excel/

    🙁

  34. It’s hard to believe that the UK has become such a caricature of itself. It used to be ahead of the game in so many fields. What a farce!

  39. WA can’t secede as the Constitution Act of 1900 says ‘one indissoluble commonwealth’.
    Not sure how they get around that.

  40. Because WA produces more petroleum products than the rest of Australia does not mean that those products constitute the mainstay of its economy.

  44. Antony Green
    @AntonyGreenABC
    In the last four decades, four Queensland elections have produced hung parliaments. Let me run through them. First, after the coalition split in 1983, the Nationals fell just short of a majority at the election. The lured two Liberals to join the Nationals. …/2 #qldvotes

    1995 – Labor won 45 seats, Coalition 43, 1 Independent. The Labor 2PP% was 46.7%. After Labor lost the Mundingburra re-election in Feb 1996, the numbers were 44-44 and Independent Liz Cunningham named the 2PP% as why she backed Borbidge to replace Goss as Premier. …/3

    1998 – the One Nation surge. Labor won 44 seats, one short of a majority. Independent Peter Wellington agreed to put Labor in office. The only alternative government was a National-Liberal-One Nation-Independent coalition. …/4

    2015 – Labor won 44 seats, one short. Peter Wellington became Speaker, and with Katter’s Australian Party holding 2 seats, the LNP could not bring down the government on its own, though LNP and KAP did defeat government from time time on specific votes, not no confidence votes.

  45. Big A Adrian:

    So it turns out the UK’s 35 million pound ‘state of the art’ test and trace system is based on an Excel spreadsheet. As if thats not bad enough – the reason it stopped populating was the max number of columns was exceeded – 16384 (xfd). Yes thats right – they were actually entering cases by the column, not the row. Had they used rows it would still be working – as the row limit is over a million.

    Thats gobsmacking – even for that joke of a government.

    Is there a serious reference for this?

    I suspect the reporting is misleading, and the actual situation is that data are copied out of the actual system into a spreadsheet for some sort of manual inspection/check prior to release.

  46. sprocket_ @ #45426 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 6:21 pm

    Some talk that Dotard is channeling the Pharoahs – the like to be buried with their attendants and slaves – and Dotard has the same entitlement mentality to the poor souls who serve at his pleasure, and have to call him Sir.

    I think they’ve started the process and have already removed his brains through his nose.

  48. Coal and gas together amount to less than 18% in total of the value of WA annual exports.

    We’d manage without you quite well in increased Chinese trade alone, without the burden of carrying the other States and the white anting by Morrison and his cronies of the WA -China economic relationship.

  49. Fulvio Sammut @ #1648 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 11:38 pm

    Coal and gas together in total amount to less than 18% in total of the value WA annual exports.

    We’d manage without you quite well in increased Chinese trade alone, without the burden of carrying the other States and the white anting by Morrison and his cronies of the WA -China economic relationship.

    Perhaps you should have considered that before you put him in power against the wishes of all the other states and territories bar Qld.

  50. Oh, I think the voters in the other 60 or more seats east of our border that voted LNP may have had a lot more to do with it.

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