Preselections, defections and state elections

Jockeying begins in earnest for Liberal preselections in Warringah and for the Tasmanian Senate ticket, and a new milestone in the decomposition of Nick Xenophon’s party.

There probably won’t be any polls this week, with the fortnightly Essential Research and tri-weekly Newspoll having dropped last week. But there will of course be a Northern Territory election on Saturday, which is the subject of its own thread here.

Other news:

Sue Bailey of the Launceston Examiner reports that Eric Abetz is expected to retain the top position on the Tasmanian Liberals’ Senate ticket at the next election, contrary to earlier reports that Jonathan Duniam was planning to topple him, after the two “kissed and made up”. However, the report further says that “another senior Liberal” is doing the numbers for the third candidate who will be seeking re-election, Wendy Askew, who filled the Senate vacancy created last year when her brother, David Bushby, took up a diplomatic post in the United States. Also: “It is believed Prime Minister Scott Morrison wants the pre-selection delayed until next year so as not to be a distraction during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Michael Koziol of the Age/Herald has a story on the willing Liberal preselection contest in Warringah, which Tony Abbott lost to independent Zali Steggall at last year’s election. Abbott loyalists are said to be advancing the claim of Sacha Grebe, a former Scott Morrison staffer and employee of lobbying firm DPG Advisory, whose principal is David Gazard, a Morrison ally and candidate for Eden-Monaro in 2010. Grebe backer and local party activist Walter Villatora is engaged in a seemingly forlorn bid to have the preselection held as soon as possible. Others said to be in the hunt are “state MP Natalie Ward, state executive member Alex Dore and Menzies Research Centre manager Tim James”.

• There has been a change in the party balance of the Senate with Rex Patrick’s resignation from the Centre Alliance to sit as an independent. The Advertiser ($) has also reported the party’s two remaining members, Stirling Griff in the Senate and Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie, are the subject of approaches from Liberals to defect to the party, although the notion is meeting bitter resistance from conservatives.

• The results of Tasmania’s recent upper house elections have been finalised, and as expected have resulted in the election of Labor’s Bastian Seidel in the seat of Huon south of Hobart, and of Liberal candidate Jo Palmer in Rosevears. The former was achieved over independent incumbent Robert Armstrong by the comfortable margin of 7.3% at the final count (12,284 votes to 9,152), but the latter proved a close run thing, with Jo Palmer landing 260 votes clear of independent candidate Janie Finlay, 11,492 votes (50.6%) or 11,232 (49.4%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,622 comments on “Preselections, defections and state elections”

Comments Page 4 of 33
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  1. Victoria, my better half also made the point about the smirk while saying sorry.

    It made him look like he was not sorry, and he knew he was getting away with it.

  2. frednk….the Commonwealth really failed to impose an appropriate level of public health restrictions at our external borders and ports. No doubt about that.

    However, this is separate from the administration of personal isolation facilities and regimes set up by the States. It’s not clear that the Commonwealth could set these up even if it wanted to. The Commonwealth probably does not have the power to enforce the detention of individuals within State jurisdictions on public health grounds. This is what the system actually imposes – a form of incarceration without charge or trial. The Commonwealth does not have the power to just lock people up in this context, though the States most certainly do.

  3. Morrison’s strategy, if it can be called that is to have no damage to him. Simple as that.

    Early on he overtly tried to put pressure on the States to ease restrictions, now it is more subtle through his Ministers critiquing Andrews to having Palmer do his bidding in WA.

    To claim he has a plan on how to respond to this virus and it’s impact is a straight marketing lie.

    Every instance of the Coalition not taking responsibility so should be called out by all in opposition (including the Greens). I take the point of the responsibility for Health being with the States but not taking any responsibility and stating they have a plan is just pathetic.

    They are in government and need to take some responsibility.

  4. I see NZ is not immune to misinformation either.

    casey briggs
    @CaseyBriggs
    ·
    38m
    The NZ government is calling out coronavirus misinformation on social media:

    “What we have seen over the last 24 hours has taken things to a new and concerning level. It’s troubling.”

    A claim that a woman in the cluster snuck into quarantine is “totally and utterly wrong”

  5. Rafael Epstein
    @Raf_Epstein
    ·
    30m
    So by my count that is

    134 deaths in federally funded aged care

    in Victoria, in August alone

    Federal funds, federal rules, no nurses mandated, carers STILL working while sick and across multiple sites.
    Quote Tweet

    Sumeyya Ilanbey
    @sumeyyailanbey
    · 32m
    11 of today’s 16 deaths are linked to aged care outbreaks

  6. The only person I know who has spent time in jail, currently owns many cars vintage Ferraris among them, and lives in a renovated mansion in a leafy suburb.

    What business is he in? Aged Care.

    He was jailed while owning a number of aged care facilities and the charges related to what he did in that business.

    I would also point out, this happened a while ago when governments were serious about these matters.

  7. C@tmomma
    So not only does our government ignore its responsibilities it sells them for profit.
    If it is leased does this mean it is no longer responsible, personally I think not.


  8. PeeBee says:
    Sunday, August 16, 2020 at 11:37 am

    Frednk, I noticed they countered Shorten’s pointing out the quarantine was a federal responsibility by saying health was a state responsibility. It made me think, what is quarantine for? The only reason for quarantine is infection control!

    Like to see the line in the constitution that says that. Medicare, PBS, funding of private hospitals, all commonwealth schemes. The defense the press put up for their and the commonwealth efforts was beyond pathetic.

    We as a country are very lucky the states still manage a hospital scheme otherwise they may have been less focused on pushing back on the commonwealth effort to throw us all under a bus.

  9. Cabinet confidentiality is a convention, supported by legislation, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-year_rule#Australi. It is not in the Constitution.

    On the other hand, the ”National Cabinet” is not a cabinet at all, but a “Leaders Forum” or rejigged COAG. I expect that Cabinet confidentiality would not apply, just the usual rules for meetings between the PM and a Premier or Minister. I’m pretty sure that invoking Cabinet Confidentiality is a complete furphy (or a lie).


  10. Victoria says:
    Sunday, August 16, 2020 at 11:44 am

    I see NZ is not immune to misinformation either.
    ….
    A claim that a woman in the cluster snuck into quarantine is “totally and utterly wrong”

    Here we go again, hinting bonking is required for transmission; the right wing nutters n Australia went further of cause,NZ toned down to sneaking in.

  11. The Commonwealth has unlimited but not exclusive power when it comes to quarantine.

    The states cannot exercise power or pass legislation which is inconsistent with any commonwealth law or exercise of the power.

    It would be an interesting question as to whether the states can exercise their quarantine powers or their public health powers on Commonwealth land.

  12. Mundo I thought Labors stratergery was not to attack the Liberals but to support the government at a time of national crisis?

    It’s the zerlo target strategy – there is no difference ?

  13. Victoria @ #162 Sunday, August 16th, 2020 – 11:44 am

    I see NZ is not immune to misinformation either.

    casey briggs
    @CaseyBriggs
    ·
    38m
    The NZ government is calling out coronavirus misinformation on social media:

    “What we have seen over the last 24 hours has taken things to a new and concerning level. It’s troubling.”

    A claim that a woman in the cluster snuck into quarantine is “totally and utterly wrong”

    I don’t want to seem like a whacko conspiracy theorist, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Russian GSU seeded that erroneous claim into social media in NZ before their elections.

  14. Sprocket

    Police facts also said that although there was no other traffic on the road at the time, the potential danger to all road users was extremely high.

    In court today, Maiden’s solicitor handed up a Google map to show that she had driven 20km on country roads on the night. “Ms Maiden had been attending a function at Mt Wayo,” her solicitor said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/journalist-samantha-maiden-avoids-jail-after-drinkdriving-charge-20160519-goykxw.html

    Pity the court decided to ignore the police submission about potential danger to other road users. They would know that head-on collisions and run-off road crashes are big killers on country roads. Both caused by drivers wandering onto the wrong side of the road at high speeds.
    Drivers on country roads are 4 times more likely to be killed that city drivers.
    http://www.tac.vic.gov.au/about-the-tac/media-room/news-and-events/2018/run-off-road-crashes-the-biggest-killer-on-country-roads
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/heartbroken-mother-calls-on-drivers-to-drop-she-ll-be-right-attitude-20200804-p55idk.html

  15. Weren’t the Japanese placed into Internment camps in Australia during WW2 under the Quarantine powers of the Commonwealth?

  16. Steve777 @ #167 Sunday, August 16th, 2020 – 11:46 am

    Cabinet confidentiality is a convention, supported by legislation, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-year_rule#Australi. It is not in the Constitution.

    On the other hand, the ”National Cabinet” is not a cabinet at all, but a “Leaders Forum” or rejigged COAG. I expect that Cabinet confidentiality would not apply, just the usual rules for meetings between the PM and a Premier or Minister. I’m pretty sure that invoking Cabinet Confidentiality is a complete furphy (or a lie).

    Especially as Morrison hasn’t been to parliament to codify it in legisaltion, iirc.


  17. Maude Lynne says:

    Pity the court decided to ignore the police submission about potential danger to other road users. They would know that head-on collisions and run-off road crashes are big killers on country roads. Both caused by drivers wandering onto the wrong side of the road at high speeds.
    Drivers on country roads are 4 times more likely to be killed that city drivers.
    http://www.tac.vic.gov.au/about-the-tac/media-room/news-and-events/2018/run-off-road-crashes-the-biggest-killer-on-country-roads
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/heartbroken-mother-calls-on-drivers-to-drop-she-ll-be-right-attitude-20200804-p55idk.html

    And assholes driving home pissed is a very common cause,sleeping while driving is up there along with city folk gravel panic

  18. Morrison’s smirk is laden with superiority, smugness, insincerity and lack of respect. Just what is probably expected of heavies at Hillsong.
    It is annoying and offputting in the extreme!

  19. Internment during the war relied on the exercise of the Defence power, which has been given a very wide construction over the years.

  20. Looks like Biden’s lead is shrinking, he’s now down to 4 points in the key battlegrounds.

    Shows how weak a candidate he is that he’s not been able to put Trump away with everything that’s happened.

  21. While aged care and quarantine have been the focus over the past days and weeks another potential crisis is bubbling quietly under the radar atm.

    The disability sector and those living in disability accomodation which is mostly funded and regulated by the federal governments could well be the next “hotspot”.

    Daniel Andrews already has concerns and it will be interesting to see how quickly, if at all, Morrison responds. With a minister like Stuart Robert floating around I do not hold out much hope.

  22. Penetration and destabilisation are two very different things c@t. Destabilisation can flow from penetration however.

  23. Lizzie
    Am not surprised the firefighters union are launching a campaign backing Andrews handling of the quarantine debacle in his hour of need.
    Since coming to office Andrews has delivered on every single one of thier demands. He has been the goose that lays the golden eggs as far as they are concerned.
    Have a feeling it may be once bitten twice shy for many Victorians in regards to the UFU campaign.
    Spending millions to successfully block the public release of the HRC report into sex discrimination and bullying in the States fire services was not a good look.

  24. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, August 16, 2020 at 12:04 pm
    Looks like Biden’s lead is shrinking, he’s now down to 4 points in the key battlegrounds.

    Shows how weak a candidate he is that he’s not been able to put Trump away with everything that’s happened.

    Not according to 538.

  25. Frednk
    And assholes driving home pissed is a very common cause,sleeping while driving is up there along with city folk gravel panic
    Yes, DUI and failing to stop is what she did.
    You can bet one of society’s ‘down and out’ would have been jailed for a similar offence.

  26. Good Afternoon

    I made the mistake of watching Insiders this morning.

    The only real bright spot was Bill Shorten’s use of the word simp.

    The normalising of the ADF being involved in everything is a big worry.
    We have seen that leading to dictatorship in the past.

    VicHealth might well do with some advice on administration or “command and control”. It certainly does not need a military takeover.

  27. Non

    You seem to be shifting goal posts a little…

    Which is fine, but it would be nice to acknowledge that you’re doing so and why.

  28. Puffy

    I can only suggest the Aussie voter is in some sort of Stockholm Syndrome relationship with whatever sociopathic scumbag the Liberals throw up as their leader and thus our Prime Minister

    The Libs long ago discovered a rich seam of self interest in voter land and have mined it successfully.

  29. If your a Russian defector, there’s basically 5 countries to be warehoused in:

    USA
    Canada
    UK
    Australia
    NZ

    Europe is a no go zone because Russian espionage networks are so extensive.

  30. Maude Lynne

    There was an incident a few years ago where a driver on a country road ran into a bunch of kids on the same country road and killed several of them.

    The driver thought he was being ‘safe’ by taking a country road and the kids thought they were safe on a country road.

    It’s the kind of case which should be front of mind for magistrates – it shouldn’t be “that’s okay, you were lucky…” but ‘what if you hadn’t been?”

  31. Actually c@t I think both trump and Biden are terrible choices.

    Hopefully if it’s Biden he lets Kamala actually run the administration – she may be ok?

    An 80 yr old has a 5% chance of dying in any year regardless of their health.

  32. Already the weights are being put on Joe Biden, as if HE has to prove himself worthy of victory in America in November and Donald Trump is being allowed to get away with murder. Pretty well literally.

  33. I can’t see Biden staring down the Chinese if they decide to reunite Taiwan with motherland .trump who knows what he would do?

    It’s a real possibility in the next 4 years that Crimea style reunification is decided on in Beijing.

  34. Lars Von Trier @ #187 Sunday, August 16th, 2020 – 10:18 am

    If your a Russian defector, there’s basically 5 countries to be warehoused in:

    USA
    Canada
    UK
    Australia
    NZ

    Europe is a no go zone because Russian espionage networks are so extensive.

    Given how much money the Russian oligarchs have in both the US and the UK, I wouldn’t feel too safe in either of those countries, especially the UK. Remember this incident from a couple of years ago?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Sergei_and_Yulia_Skripal

  35. Cat

    You can say Biden is a weak candidate but still want him to win. We are not part of Biden’s campaign team.

    I certainly don’t get money from him.

    Do you?

  36. LvT,
    Though Trump may be a little bit younger, he is a whole lot less healthy than Biden, so I don’t like his chances either of fulfilling a second term, god forbid it were to happen.

    Kamala Harris has been the AG for state larger in population than our entire country, plus she has developed legislation in the Senate. She’d be a lot more prepared to take over if anything happened to Joe Biden than Trump was/is.

  37. guytaur
    The normalising of the ADF being involved in everything is a big worry.
    We have seen that leading to dictatorship in the past.

    This worries me too.

    By using the military Morrison is also admitting that his government has failed to forsee, appropriately plan for, and prepare for, stresses on systems such as aged care (and bushfires). This despite the warnings given by the many knowledgeable people we have in these departments.
    We should not need to use the military – our civil society systems should be enough .
    Planning, preparation, testing of the preparations and systems – it all requires money and acceptance that that is what government is for.
    Morrison’s gov’t provides none of these.

  38. Jail for a first time drink driving offence is extremely unlikely in the absence of doing some damage however, a seven month driving suspension for a mid range plus avoiding police seems too low..

    I wonder if Ms Maiden was charged with dangerous or reckless driving.

  39. Dan

    I am hoping that Trump in the time remaining arms Taiwan to the teeth.
    A lot harder for Xi to impose his will with a territory that can defend itself. A luxury unavailable to Hong Kong.

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