Nothing succeeds like secession

A new poll finds a certain amount of support for Western Australia to go it alone, as the Federal Court finds facts in Clive Palmer’s constitutional challenge against the state’s border closures.

The West Australian has a poll today from Painted Dog Research showing 34% out of 837 respondents from the state favour secession for Western Australia. However, the utility of this finding is limited by the report’s failure to offer any insight as to how many of the other 66% were actively opposed and how many uncommitted, if indeed the latter was provided as an option. The poll also finds “close to three-quarters” think the federal government has put the needs of the eastern states ahead of Western Australia during the pandemic. I wouldn’t normally consider such a poll front page news, but it’s past time for a new general discussion thread, so here it is.

There is also the following:

• Since Tuesday’s post from Adrian Beaumont on the extraordinary finding of a Reid Research poll of voting intention in New Zealand, the other regular pollster in the country, Colmar Brunton, has produced a somewhat more modest result: Labour 53%, National 32%, Greens 5%, ACT New Zealand 4.8% and New Zealand First 2%. It also finds Jacinda Ardern with a 54-20 lead over the new National leader, Judith Collins, as preferred prime minister. There’s an interesting discussion on polling in the country, the record of which is apparently very good, on Radio New Zealand’s The Detail program.

• As noted in my popular dedicated post on the subject, elections will be held today for two seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council. One of these at least, for the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, includes both Liberal and Labor candidates, and might be seen as some sort of barometer for the state’s new-ish Premier, Peter Gutwein, who has been recording exceptionally strong poll ratings amid the COVID-19 crisis. Live coverage of the count will, as ever, commence here at 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,961 comments on “Nothing succeeds like secession”

  1. c@t he said 1 August and US media is reporting a delay.

    Maybe there struggling with presentation issues re the Veep pick – is it the Veep or is it a co-president?

  2. There’s actually a Sitting GOP Congressman who is saying he may not vote for Trump:

    Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican in the chamber. He is also retiring at the end of his current term. As he says on the podcast, he is not yet sure whether he will vote for President Trump this fall.

    That’s a poll of one that’s not very flattering for Donald Trump. At all.

    Nevertheless, it’s a known fact that national polls in the US don’t really reflect much of worth and it’s polls in the Swing States that are more indicative. However, this far out they’re not really going to do more than give you a snapshot view. The truth is reflected in the fact that the closer to the election, the more reliable are the polls in the US.

  3. This in The SmearStralian, so take with a truckload of salt..

    ‘Victoria is expected to go into the highest level of coronavirus lockdown since the COVID-19 crisis hit Australia – Stage 4 restrictions – in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

    An announcement on the new level of restrictions aimed at halting Victoria’s spiralling coronavirus infection and death rates is expected on Sunday

    . The tough new restrictions, similar to the New Zealand lockdown preventing movement and business, are expected to last for another six weeks and would close all but essential businesses and send high school students back to learning from home.’

  4. LVT
    Trumps gone.
    He’s toast!
    Cling to hope from whatever poll you can find.
    It’s only going to make your heartbreak even harder.
    Stockpile the hankies, you’re going to need them come November the 3rd and even more when the coalition gets booted out of government whenever the next Federal election is held!

  5. I don’t know how good the polls quoted in this thread are, but Trump does seem to have an approval rating and vote in the 40s percent. I find it amazing that 40%+ of Americans could find Trump remotely acceptable. In a sensible country his approval rating would be 4% not 40. Even Mini-me Morrison is now distancing himself from Trump.

    Idiocracy was a prophecy – albeit out by 485 years.

  6. Lars Von Trier @ #351 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 9:59 pm

    c@t he said 1 August and US media is reporting a delay.

    Maybe there struggling with presentation issues re the Veep pick – is it the Veep or is it a co-president?

    Which media is that? A Panglossian term such as ‘the media’ is essentially meaningless unless you specify who it was.

    If you want the truth then you should watch or listen to the latest Pod Save America, where the subject of Biden’s VP choice and announcement date is discussed by someone who has been intimately involved in the process previously. They’re the only ones I take seriously.

  7. The Casino inquiry is another example of a state inquiry with federal overlay in the sense that presumably part of the materials before it are ASIO or equivalent assessments of persons associated with the second Sydney casino

  8. sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 7:49 pm
    Earlier discussion on just key stroking money into existence, if you are the currency issuer.

    I’m intrigued as to what happens in the balance sheet? Cash at bank just grows organically? And liabilities? Just ignore those pesky bond issuing requirements.

    And cash flow – we have revenue, various types of taxes and fees, and what is this line in the income statement? Currency increase – checks the footnotes – oh, we just created an extra $500b by typing it in.

    So I imagine from this that MMT involves tossing AAS in the bin.

    Currency is a liability in the accounts of the issuer.

  9. Sprocket
    I’ll take it with a truckload of common sense.
    Lock down and eliminate!
    Only solution, time to get it done.
    This namby pamby suppression rubbish is not working!
    Can’t you see that?

  10. I was at a series of rugby union matches in WA all this afternoon.

    Knobsville versus State Housing. I support State Housing.

    To a man and woman, those I spoke to (and there were many), were against Palmer’s Action, and backed McGowan’s closing of the border.

    I also heard that nearly all the major mining companies are refusing to employ people from Victoria and NSW as FIFO workers in WA. This has been going on for the last 2 months.

    Palmer’s name is shit here, across the political divide..

  11. From the Washington Post article:

    Had Biden stuck to his initial Aug. 1 deadline, Democrats acknowledge, it would have provided the GOP a longer window to criticize his pick and scrutinize her record, potentially allowing the Republicans to dominate news cycles and putting the new Democratic team on the defensive. This reality has meant there was little incentive for moving swiftly to name a running mate.

  12. C@tmomma
    Not nice at all.
    We don’t need to sink to their levels.
    Despite what we may think describing people like that is not necessary.
    If you can’t win the fight cleanly then it’s not worth fighting.
    Remember, this person has a family.

  13. To those who say Albanese is silent:

    Anthony Albanese

    “Do I go to work and make my colleagues sick, or do I stay at home and let my kids go hungry?”

    No one should have to make that choice – and paid pandemic leave would make sure they never have to. The Government should just do it.

  14. Stage 4 Victoria: the funniest part is that the Herald-Sun probably reckons this will be unpopular.

    More evidence of the great belly-up.

  15. C@tmomma

    August 1st is the weekend, nobody cares probably, I think Biden delaying is ok, too much attention on Trump and his constant mistakes.

  16. Herald Sun “Harsh Stage 4 Restrictions“.

    The restrictions are tough but seem to be necessary. Is “harsh” the right word? It carries suggestions of being unreasonable, excessive or cruel. “Stringent” would have been a better word, or maybe simply ”tough”.

    But whatever, any decision that the Victorian Labor Government chose to do would have been wrong.

  17. sprocket_says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 10:56 pm
    Victorian Opposition Leader Tim Smith has been deleting his tweets, demanding the reopening of bars so he can have a drink.
    Vic Liberals are like a time travelling gang of sideshow freaks and monarchists. They are completely out of touch. The influence of Kroger has been disastrous. Say what you will about Kennett but at least he put forward a Liberal defense of multiculturalism and stood up to Hanson.

  18. If I had intended to call you an intestinal nematode, Being There, I would certainly have done so specifically. But I did not have that intention.

    You have been a contributor here (under your present name at least) for a short while. I don’t know you, or of you, sufficiently to presume to insult you.

    I have no such reservations in respect of Tim Smith. If Mr. Smith’s family are likely to be hurt or offended by him being described as an intestinal nematode, then I suggested the nematode’s family are even more likely to be hurt and offended by being associated with Mr. Smith.

  19. I just feel bad that over the decades my family has bought so many Tiddly Oggies that we have inadvertently funded Tim Smith. We had no idea.

  20. Fulvio Sammut

    Not about insulting me, it’s in regard to calling Tim Smith disgusting names, which you seem comfortable with.

    It’s Been There not Being There, something you deliberately did.

    At least show the courtesy to get the name right.

    Little bit of respect goes long way.

    Don’t make an enemy out of me, because you’ll get it right back, and probably on more eloquent terms than you’re used to.

  21. Your threat is duly noted.

    Your willingness to ascribe motives where none exist surprises me.

    I apologise for getting your name wrong.

  22. You can all find me on The Guardian BTL under Everywhereman.

    I’m not shy and my beliefs are clear.

    Happy to share my thoughts here.

    My approach is that I will not post anything that I would not say to a persons face.

  23. NonSequitur @ #365 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 8:17 pm

    William Bowe says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 10:11 pm

    Perth’s Sunday Times reports the feds are un-joining Clive Palmer’s action against WA’s border closures.

    Discretion being the better part of valour here. The Liberals have come to their collective political senses.

    It’s possible they just got advice that they have little chance of success.

  24. Just back from my midnight kebab run at West End’s main drag. Queensland is definitely poised to go off like the proverbial bomb. Packed hotels, people queuing in the streets, with no distancing and in general no difference at all to BAU.

  25. Historyintime

    Hope the kebab was tasty.

    Doesn’t look good re the crowds.

    Can only hope the travelers didn’t go there.


    Why put yourself out there anyway?

  26. Been There,

    Good question. When there were no or minimal cases, which was so since April, I was not inclined to pay fealty to non existent risk. Now, it’s a question of wait and see. Supposedly the Logan bogans have been in contact with 2000 people, so it could be a big ramp up. However, just walking around in the open taking some care to distance is OK, surely. But no way would I be sitting down in one of the pubs in close contact for a while.

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