Nothing succeeds like secession

A new poll finds a certain amount of support for Western Australia to go it alone, as the Federal Court finds facts in Clive Palmer’s constitutional challenge against the state’s border closures.

The West Australian has a poll today from Painted Dog Research showing 34% out of 837 respondents from the state favour secession for Western Australia. However, the utility of this finding is limited by the report’s failure to offer any insight as to how many of the other 66% were actively opposed and how many uncommitted, if indeed the latter was provided as an option. The poll also finds “close to three-quarters” think the federal government has put the needs of the eastern states ahead of Western Australia during the pandemic. I wouldn’t normally consider such a poll front page news, but it’s past time for a new general discussion thread, so here it is.

There is also the following:

• Since Tuesday’s post from Adrian Beaumont on the extraordinary finding of a Reid Research poll of voting intention in New Zealand, the other regular pollster in the country, Colmar Brunton, has produced a somewhat more modest result: Labour 53%, National 32%, Greens 5%, ACT New Zealand 4.8% and New Zealand First 2%. It also finds Jacinda Ardern with a 54-20 lead over the new National leader, Judith Collins, as preferred prime minister. There’s an interesting discussion on polling in the country, the record of which is apparently very good, on Radio New Zealand’s The Detail program.

• As noted in my popular dedicated post on the subject, elections will be held today for two seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council. One of these at least, for the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, includes both Liberal and Labor candidates, and might be seen as some sort of barometer for the state’s new-ish Premier, Peter Gutwein, who has been recording exceptionally strong poll ratings amid the COVID-19 crisis. Live coverage of the count will, as ever, commence here at 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,961 comments on “Nothing succeeds like secession”

  1. Been There @ #401 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 12:14 am

    steve davis

    Send a link please.
    Re: Katrina Grace Kelly(the OZ)
    Or expand, a lot of us are not subscribers to the OZ.

    Before the virus hit, economic conservatism and good financial governance were much in vogue. But as the times change, so does the thinking. It is a very uncertain world now, but one thing is apparent. Right now, when more people need the machinery of government, more than ever, for longer than ever, very few are interested in hearing wistful (and delusional) rumination on Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. Public leadership will need to be more intelligent, and discussion more nuanced, than that.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/will-coronavirus-kill-conservatism/news-story/93c6b1153e7efd81a1c20dd94b5e423f

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Melbourne is facing tougher new stage four lockdown restrictions within days, which could force more businesses to close their doors, the imposition of stricter stay-at-home rules and drastic cuts to public transport.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/numbers-are-too-high-melbourne-faces-stage-four-lockdown-within-days-20200801-p55hm3.html
    A fifth of small firms have lost more than $100,000 due to the coronavirus recession but many are upbeat about their futures says Shane Wright.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/small-businesses-losing-more-than-100-000-as-virus-bites-20200731-p55hfn.html
    The judicial inquiry into Victoria’s quarantine disaster promised answers, but so far it has merely delivered more questions says Noel Towell.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/premier-s-hotel-quarantine-inquiry-leaves-us-in-the-dark-20200801-p55hlv.html
    Jewel Topsfield takes us along for COVID-19’s deadly progress through our aged homes.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/duty-of-care-covid-19-s-deadly-progress-through-our-aged-homes-20200731-p55h8i.html
    The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed poor management within the aged care sector, writes Dr Binoy Kampmark.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/coronavirus-unveils-all-aged-care-and-the-victorian-crisis,14162
    Dennis Shanahan tells us that Scott Morrison has pulled the Commonwealth out of the High Court challenge against Western Australia’s border closures started Clive Palmer.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/commonweath-pulls-out-of-high-court-challenge-against-wa-border-closures/news-story/75be66533406f091085a9820602c5fe1
    And Dennis Atkins is not impressed with Scott Morrison’s double standard for border closures.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/08/01/border-double-standard/
    Peter Hannam writes that Coastal NSW faces the possibility of a third bout of wild weather in less than a month as insurance advisers warn the risks from multiple storms are being underestimated.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/erosion-risks-underestimated-as-more-wild-weather-forecast-20200730-p55h43.html
    Recessions are awful for young people – but things were already bad for Australians under 35 writes Greg Jericho.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2020/aug/02/recessions-are-awful-for-young-people-but-things-were-already-bad-for-australians-under-35
    With rates already low and no real appetite for unusual methods to boost the economy, the RBA may find itself watching on during the recession writes Shane Wright who reckons the argument about MMT is over.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/in-the-midst-of-battle-the-monetary-policy-war-may-be-over-20200729-p55gn6.html
    Christopher Knaus reveals that the Covid-19 commission has handed a communications contract to a firm headed by two former Liberal staffers, prompting criticism from Labor, who say they will pursue the matter through an inquiry.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/02/covid-19-commission-grants-communications-contract-to-firm-headed-by-ex-liberal-staffers
    William Olson writes that as both the union movement and the business lobby continue to maintain their poker faces in the ongoing industrial relations reforms discussions in Sydney and Canberra, KPMG – one of the major players in the business lobby – has risked the integrity of the negotiations after a document of theirs was leaked this week.
    https://theaimn.com/kpmgs-blunder-an-obstacle-in-industrial-relations-reform-talks/
    Dr Lee Duffield continues his examination of the current state of the ABC and its future under a Liberal government.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-war-on-the-abc-and-its-options-for-survival,14161
    If the Treasurer wants people to have babies, he needs to work on his seduction routine says Jacqui Maley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/if-the-treasurer-wants-people-to-have-babies-he-needs-to-work-on-his-seduction-routine-20200731-p55hd3.html
    The Canberra Times editorial simply says Trump is destabilising and dangerous.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6859150/trump-is-destabilising-and-dangerous/?cs=14258
    Now James Murdoch has untethered himself from News Corp Matthew Knott wonders if he’ll become more outspoken.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/james-murdoch-makes-statement-in-the-style-of-his-dramatic-departure-20200801-p55hjs.html
    And Knott tells us that tens of millions of Americans face financial devastation after losing access to emergency US$600 ($840) per week payments because Democrats and Republicans failed to agree on a new coronavirus relief deal.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/millions-in-us-face-financial-ruin-as-emergency-jobless-benefits-end-20200801-p55hiw.html
    Don’t bank on Britain’s foppish, lazy elites to save us from deep fakery writes Nick Cohen.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/01/in-an-era-of-deep-fakery-who-can-we-trust-to-tell-us-the-truth
    A bit of bad luck for these “Arseholes of the Week” nominees!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/plane-overloaded-with-cocaine-crashes-in-png-unravels-alleged-melbourne-syndicate-20200801-p55hlp.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Reg Lynch

    Matt Davidson

    Matt Golding


    Pater Broelman

    Mark Knight

    From the US



  3. “Stockpile the hankies, you’re going to need them come November the 3rd and even more when the coalition gets booted out of government whenever the next Federal election is held!”

    ***

    It’s looking likely that Trump will go, although I am very wary about the polls after what happened to Clinton. He needs to go. Biden has a shockingly bad track record on a range of different things from abortion to Iraq though. There will be a big sigh of relief for 5 minutes when Trump goes and then we will be stuck with another right wing war crim as US president. Well, that is a return to normalcy for the US I suppose.

    However, there is currently nothing which suggests that the Coalition in Australia is going anywhere for awhile. Labor is all but invisible. Albo is not cutting through. Most incumbent governments are benefiting from a “rally round the flag” response to COVID. I do think that can and may well change before the next election but there is nothing there right now to suggest that it is yet. Impossible to predict the winner of the next Australian election right now but at this point the Coalition would have to be considered the favorites.

  4. Thanks BK.

    Dennis Shanahan tells us that Scott Morrison has pulled the Commonwealth out of the High Court challenge against Western Australia’s border closures started Clive Palmer.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/commonweath-pulls-out-of-high-court-challenge-against-wa-border-closures/news-story/75be66533406f091085a9820602c5fe1

    They’ve been getting slammed here, most especially Clive Palmer. If I were Morrison I too would be wondering why I needed the headache that comes with shackling my wagon to Palmer’s.

  5. Good morning and thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed poor management within the aged care sector, writes Dr Binoy Kampmark.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/coronavirus-unveils-all-aged-care-and-the-victorian-crisis,14162

    Just what are the aged care nurses expected to do ❓

    In those Aged Care Facilities without a registered nurse regularly on shift – the AIN have to be self directing and experts at carrying the can for management. Caring for our “loved ones” carries with it financial rewards not quite to the level of the meanest back bencher

    and so it goes ……

  6. @KayJay they deserve a considerable pay rise, that’s for sure. More training, more pay, and more of them so that they aren’t forced into marathon shifts due to under staffing.

  7. KayJay

    Good morning. These people who write the lists of skills… Why the hell don’t they get someone to check the spelling before going to print?

    It’s discreet, not discrete.

  8. Insiders ABC@InsidersABC
    ·
    1h
    Coming up on #Insiders with @David_Speers:
    • Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers @JEChalmers
    • @mpbowers talks pics with @fleur_anderson
    • On the couch are @bridgeyb, @markgkenny and Niki Savva
    • @CaseyBriggs is back with The Curve
    See you at 9am.

  9. Firefox

    Morrison has, I believe, over 40 staff to massage his public communications. He also has a secretive Covid committee to sell his economic ‘solutions’ to us. All regulatory bodies are now dominated by the conservatives. You’re right. Unless something drastic is done, he’ll get back in.

  10. As I understand it, the parties to Palmer’s action are Palmer, the WA Government, and the Federal Government as an intervener.

    Those parties all finished presenting their cases last week.

    The matter is therefore now in the hands of the Court for its decision.

    Morrison’s offer to withdraw from the action at this stage is just hollow, egregious posturing.

    He’s done all the damage he can do, from the litigation perspective, and is merely seeking to extricate himself from the opprobrium which has emerged via focus groups and public remonstrations.

  11. Confessions @ #406 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 7:29 am

    Thanks BK.

    Dennis Shanahan tells us that Scott Morrison has pulled the Commonwealth out of the High Court challenge against Western Australia’s border closures started Clive Palmer.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/commonweath-pulls-out-of-high-court-challenge-against-wa-border-closures/news-story/75be66533406f091085a9820602c5fe1

    They’ve been getting slammed here, most especially Clive Palmer. If I were Morrison I too would be wondering why I needed the headache that comes with shackling my wagon to Palmer’s.

    No doubt Christian Porter’s ambitions to be PM himself after Morrison, factored in to the calculations. Not that he’d tell Morrison about that aspect of his thinking. 🙂

  12. Fulvio Sammut @ #377 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 7:51 am

    As I understand it, the parties to Palmer’s action are Palmer, the WA Government, and the Federal Government as an intervener.

    Those parties all finished presenting their cases last week.

    The matter is therefore now in the hands of the Court for its decision.

    Morrison’s offer to withdraw from the action at this stage is just hollow, egregious posturing.

    He’s done all the damage he can do, from the litigation perspective, and is merely seeking to extricate himself from the opprobrium which has emerged via focus groups and public remonstrations.

    Mean and Tricky 2.0

  13. He’s done all the damage he can do, from the litigation perspective, and is merely seeking to extricate himself from the opprobrium which has emerged via focus groups and public remonstrations.

    Typical isn’t it.

    I’ve seen that there are driveway protests planned against Palmer and his court case and many of my Facebook friends are hosting them.

  14. lizzie @ #374 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 7:44 am

    KayJay

    Good morning. These people who write the lists of skills… Why the hell don’t they get someone to check the spelling before going to print?

    It’s discreet, not discrete.

    Discreet means on the down low, under the radar, careful, but discrete means individual or detached. They come from the same ultimate source, the Latin discrētus, for separated or distinct, but discreet has taken its own advice and quietly gone its separate way.

    https://www.vocabulary.com/articles/chooseyourwords/discreet-discrete/

    So endeth the lesson. 🙂

  15. Confessions @ #375 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 7:47 am

    Insiders ABC@InsidersABC
    ·
    1h
    Coming up on #Insiders with @David_Speers:
    • Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers @JEChalmers
    • @mpbowers talks pics with @fleur_anderson
    • On the couch are @bridgeyb, @markgkenny and Niki Savva
    • @CaseyBriggs is back with The Curve
    See you at 9am.

    Be prepared for the usual suspects to make their pathetic, derogatory comments about Dr Chalmers this morning.

  16. No doubt Christian Porter’s ambitions to be PM himself after Morrison, factored in to the calculations. Not that he’d tell Morrison about that aspect of his thinking.

    No doubt.


  17. Perth’s Sunday Times reports the feds are un-joining Clive Palmer’s action against WA’s border closures.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EeVX2KRUEAAXaGF?format=jpg&name=medium

    First Tim Wilson deletes his tweets and now this, some serious back peddling is on.

    Oops said the Liberals, we pressured so hard to open stuff up, someone might notice. We have just wasted 60 billion dollars.

    By the grace of god they will just allow the premiers to do the job properly and shut up.

  18. C@tmomma @ #419 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 6:01 am

    Confessions @ #375 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 7:47 am

    Insiders ABC@InsidersABC
    ·
    1h
    Coming up on #Insiders with @David_Speers:
    • Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers @JEChalmers
    • @mpbowers talks pics with @fleur_anderson
    • On the couch are @bridgeyb, @markgkenny and Niki Savva
    • @CaseyBriggs is back with The Curve
    See you at 9am.

    Be prepared for the usual suspects to make their pathetic, derogatory comments about Dr Chalmers this morning.

    Meh.

    They do it to bait and inflame, and it consistently works because for reasons unknown, people continue to allow themselves to be baited and inflamed.

  19. C@t

    I accidentally managed to turn on the previous thread on my mobile last night, and I had read almost a page before I realised it, because so much of the Night Patrol is repetition by the same few characters!

  20. C@tmomma
    Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 7:59 am
    Comment #414

    lizzie @ #374 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 7:44 am

    Goggle eyed and defongerated I now beat a discreet retreat into a discrete sanctum sanctorum to enable sanity as prescribed by “The Australian” to drip feed into my so called brain via freshly made coffee. 😵☕

  21. Victoria has 750 aged care homes
    There are 900 cases of Covid amongst residents
    200 homes are run by state government they have 5 cases

    State run homes have
    1 nurse to 7 patients morning shift
    1 nurse to 8 patients afternoon shift
    1 nurse to 15 patients overnight

    Meanwhile 7 of the largest private nursing homes are owned by overseas corporations domiciled in tax havens. They have entered australian aged care landscape in past 20 years following Howard’s changes to nursing home regulations in 1997, which removed nurse to patient ratios

  22. By withdrawing support in Palmer’s court challenge to open the W.A borders, shows that the corrupt foreign media own and controlled Morrison and cronies are lower than cowards .

    The fear of the public backlash against Morrison and his cronies if the corona virus spreads into W.A

  23. I’ve got an appointment this week to meet with a nursing home manager about volunteering to provide some company to residents with no family or visitors. Just to get in the front door to meet with the manger (I haven’t been approved to volunteer yet so won’t be meeting with any residents) I have to bring proof that I’ve had a flu shot and will be temperature checked each time I go in.

    Given that residential aged care is federally regulated I’m assuming the same measures are in place around the country?

  24. July 29

    Scott Morrison
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    Tonight I had another virtual meeting with leaders from Austria, Israel, Greece, the Czech Republic and Denmark to discuss our fight against #COVID19. These meetings continue to be a valuable forum to swap notes as we all face common challenges responding to this terrible virus.

    And what did he learn?

    We discussed strategies for responding to increased case numbers, maintaining physical distancing measures, the importance of rapid tracing, testing and isolation, and the need to balance localised lockdowns with keeping our economies open safely.
    We also discussed the importance of access to a vaccine, once found, and secure supply chains.

    Nothing new.

  25. It was only a week ago that some media outlets were proclaiming Trump’s return to providing daily coronavirus briefings was evidence he’d flipped the switch and was dropping the vaudeville act. Of course given we’ve seen this all before many of us were naturally sceptical he had it in him.

    Signs that President Trump’s reelection bid is in crisis grew steadily this past week, one of the most tumultuous moments of a presidency increasingly operating with an air of desperation as it tries to avoid political disaster in November.

    Campaign officials pulled television ads off the air amid a late-stage review of strategy and messaging. At the same time, Trump publicly mused about delaying the November election, airing widely debunked allegations about fraud that were roundly rejected by Republicans and Democrats.

    And as the campaign aims to mount a more aggressive defense of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the president has reverted to touting unproven miracle cures, attacking public health officials and undercutting his own government’s push to encourage good health practices.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-campaign-in-crisis-as-aides-attempt-august-reset-before-time-runs-out/2020/08/01/9c208a18-d336-11ea-8d32-1ebf4e9d8e0d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_trumpcampaign-318pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

  26. Even if Morrison were hypothetically able to remove himself from the Federal Court proceedings at this late stage, the Court would still have to decide the action between Palmer and WA, and give consideration to all legal argument, including that already submitted by the Commonwealth.

  27. martini henry @ #428 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 8:12 am

    KayJay, thank you for this mornings ramblings but you could have left the photo and article on Nath out.

    You have been non specific (many thanks) for which you become entitled to enter the draw for a chance to win a coffee voucher which together with $5 will get you a cup of coffee if and when the coffee parlours reopen in your neighborhood. ☕

  28. Confessions @ #429 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 8:12 am

    I’ve got an appointment this week to meet with a nursing home manager about volunteering to provide some company to residents with no family or visitors. Just to get in the front door to meet with the manger (I haven’t been approved to volunteer yet so won’t be meeting with any residents) I have to bring proof that I’ve had a flu shot and will be temperature checked each time I go in.

    Given that residential aged care is federally regulated I’m assuming the same measures are in place around the country?

    I would be very pleased to hear of your adventures in this matter, particularly in regard to PPE and distancing. Kudos for the effort.😇

  29. KayJay, thank you for the kind offer of a coffee voucher which i will redeem up your way if i can ever get out of the covid capital postcode in Melbourne. And i was refering to the Betoota advocate article on the collingwood supporting security guard.

  30. Morrison, the capricious accidental PM, the servile wordsmith puppets within the MSM and the puppeteers ensconced within their godless edifices, are all displaying bad sportsmanship as they are outplayed all over the field by the universally underated virus.
    The virus has dominated from the kick-off.
    The preparations for next season if there is to be one, should start immediately.

  31. Scott @ #427 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 6:10 am

    By withdrawing support in Palmer’s court challenge to open the W.A borders, shows that the corrupt foreign media own and controlled Morrison and cronies are lower than cowards .

    The fear of the public backlash against Morrison and his cronies if the corona virus spreads into W.A

    I don’t think they get to put the backlash back in the bottle. I know some liberals, people who were always going to vote liberal and still will, will be happy but the backlash is real and well out of the bottle.

    I work for a company that is very right wing, on the Terrace in Perth that is very right wing.

    I’m my team I’m the loan ‘lefty’ voice.

    More broadly we don’t really talk politics.

    In the lift on Thursday, out of the blue, from a colleague who is little more than a coffee room ‘hi’ I got a ‘how f*cking stupid is Morrison, Palmer is just a greedy selfish arsehole but why would Morrison be so stupid’

    Never one to miss an opportunity I agreed heartily, tossed Porter into the mix and reminded my colleague that if first you don’t secede you should try try again.

  32. This evening Donald Trump announced to the media that he’s banning the popular app TikTok. He’s claiming that it’s due to international security concerns involving TikTok’s China-based parent company. But we all know why Trump is doing this: the “TikTok kids,” as the app’s most fervent users are known, humiliated Trump by organizing mass signups for Trump’s Tulsa rally that never materialized.

    Trump has made a huge mistake here. It’s not just that it’s unclear how he even intends to try to ban the app. And when you consider today’s news that U.S. firm Microsoft is close to buying TikTok, Trump’s ability to ban the app may be going up in smoke anyway. But Trump’s real mistake here is that he’s just encouraged the TikTok kids to come after him with a vengeance.

    Donald Trump may or may not be able to ban this app, but he can’t ban its users. They’ll regroup on some other app if they have to. We have no idea what they might do in retaliation. But considering they helped sabotage his Tulsa rally just because they didn’t like him, and now he’s outright gunning for them, imagine how motivated they’ll be to really humiliate him.

    https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/tiktok-mistakedonald-trump-just-made-a-huge/31090/

  33. Speaking of spelling:

    I’m my team I’m the loan ‘lefty’ voice.

    It’s ‘lone’. Or did a LW law firm lend you to a RW law firm to be their token Lefty? 🙂

  34. Kayjay:

    I have to be approved first and there are some things I need such as a national police clearance which may take some time to get sorted. Besides, they may take one look at me and decide they don’t want the likes of me mixing with the residents!

  35. martini henry @ #432 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 8:31 am

    KayJay, thank you for the kind offer of a coffee voucher which i will redeem up your way if i can ever get out of the covid capital postcode in Melbourne. And i was refering to the Betoota advocate article on the collingwood supporting security guard.

    The gentleman to whom you refer (maybe gentlemen) are certainly handsome and contented.

    Why have you no “Gravatar” mon ami.

    First saw one of those about 1956.

    I’m off outside to inspect the bindii which have proliferated since the last months rain. Toodles.

  36. Herald Sun (so take with a pinch of salt).

    Jul 29. A very sad day at Epping Gardens Aged Care …. Staff hosted a party on site prior to the #COVID19 outbreak which has killed & infected so many.

  37. An interesting study just published in one of them elite larnin journals that I have to read each morning (inflicted on PB just to put a data covered finger up BB’s right nostril): a behavioural study of mask wearing in some cultures . Now correlate that data with population incidence and spread of COVID-19. Note that this is about face touching behaviour in crowded places & no viruses were harmed in the process. That said, there is still no hard evidence for provable airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in humans – it’s still droplets, saliva & mucosal contact all the way down. Wear a mask and gell your hands before picking your nose… and don’t share your nicotine delivery device mouthpiece.

  38. bronwen algate
    @only2beyourself
    ·
    The company that owns the coronavirus-plagued Epping Gardens aged care home in Melbourne also runs another home in Sydney which scored zero out of eight in a quality assessment last year.

    3m
    Epping Gardens’ parent company, Heritage Care Pty Ltd, which has a portfolio of nine for-profit residential aged care homes in Sydney and Melbourne, is directed and owned by multimillionaire aged-care moguls Tony Antonopoulos and Peter Arvanitis.

    3m
    Astronomical more than $450,000 for single room with shared bathroom, poor care and crap food.
    This is akin to ‘farming’ elders for their life savings.

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