Nothing succeeds like secession

A new poll finds a certain amount of support for Western Australia to go it alone, as the Federal Court finds facts in Clive Palmer’s constitutional challenge against the state’s border closures.

The West Australian has a poll today from Painted Dog Research showing 34% out of 837 respondents from the state favour secession for Western Australia. However, the utility of this finding is limited by the report’s failure to offer any insight as to how many of the other 66% were actively opposed and how many uncommitted, if indeed the latter was provided as an option. The poll also finds “close to three-quarters” think the federal government has put the needs of the eastern states ahead of Western Australia during the pandemic. I wouldn’t normally consider such a poll front page news, but it’s past time for a new general discussion thread, so here it is.

There is also the following:

• Since Tuesday’s post from Adrian Beaumont on the extraordinary finding of a Reid Research poll of voting intention in New Zealand, the other regular pollster in the country, Colmar Brunton, has produced a somewhat more modest result: Labour 53%, National 32%, Greens 5%, ACT New Zealand 4.8% and New Zealand First 2%. It also finds Jacinda Ardern with a 54-20 lead over the new National leader, Judith Collins, as preferred prime minister. There’s an interesting discussion on polling in the country, the record of which is apparently very good, on Radio New Zealand’s The Detail program.

• As noted in my popular dedicated post on the subject, elections will be held today for two seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council. One of these at least, for the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, includes both Liberal and Labor candidates, and might be seen as some sort of barometer for the state’s new-ish Premier, Peter Gutwein, who has been recording exceptionally strong poll ratings amid the COVID-19 crisis. Live coverage of the count will, as ever, commence here at 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,961 comments on “Nothing succeeds like secession”

  1. lizzie @ #440 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 8:45 am

    Herald Sun (so take with a pinch of salt).

    Jul 29. A very sad day at Epping Gardens Aged Care …. Staff hosted a party on site prior to the #COVID19 outbreak which has killed & infected so many.

    Jeepers Lizzie – also from the Herald Sun – everything you didn’t want to know about Shane Warne and didn’t ask either.

  2. Just on Palmer’s border opening case against WA, I understand that a judgment is not pending just yet.

    The HC sent it back to the Federal Court to get some agreed facts, which is what has been going on. It then has to go back to the HC for hearing on question of constitutional law – at which point the Commonwealth was intervening. The political blowback has caused the Feds to withdraw, despite Morrison doing his ‘and the High Court shall so hold’ schtick earlier in the week.

  3. KayJay, i have no gravatar as i am next to useless on high tech doohickies, and thankyou for the photo of the fine bit of Victorian tech wot helped win the empire. The last time i saw one was yesterday when i got her out of the safe to give it some oil as i cannot get to the range A.T.M due to lockdowns.

  4. I’d like to see Palmer & the Cth test Queensland’s border restrictions in court. This would most likely seal his and Morrison’s fate in the next state and federal elections. Morrison wouldn’t dare, but there could be implications for him if Palmer succeeds in the current matter before the H.C. But I have a strong feeling that the court will interpret s.92 in McGowan’s favour, despite the pitfall of second-guessing H.C. decisions.


  5. lizzie says:
    Sunday, August 2, 2020 at 8:45 am

    Herald Sun (so take with a pinch of salt).

    Jul 29. A very sad day at Epping Gardens Aged Care …. Staff hosted a party on site prior to the #COVID19 outbreak which has killed & infected so many.

    Make up a party, rinse and repeat. Nooky at midnight, rinse and repeat. When will these dills face up to the fact, it’s contagious.

  6. rhwombat @ #446 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 6:50 am

    An interesting study just published in one of them elite larnin journals that I have to read each morning (inflicted on PB just to put a data covered finger up BB’s right nostril): a behavioural study of mask wearing in some cultures . Now correlate that data with population incidence and spread of COVID-19. Note that this is about face touching behaviour in crowded places & no viruses were harmed in the process. That said, there is still no hard evidence for provable airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in humans – it’s still droplets, saliva & mucosal contact all the way down. Wear a mask and gell your hands before picking your nose… and don’t share your nicotine delivery device mouthpiece.

    Cheers.

    What a stark difference in the take up of mask wearing between Asian Countries and Western ones.

    It certainly doesn’t surprise me.

  7. Mavis says:
    Sunday, August 2, 2020 at 9:02 am

    “I’d like to see Palmer & the Cth test Queensland’s border restrictions in court. This would most likely seal his and Morrison’s fate in the next state and federal elections. Morrison wouldn’t dare, but there could be implications for him if Palmer succeeds in the current matter before the H.C. But I have a strong feeling that the court will interpret s.92 in McGowan’s favour, despite the pitfall of second-guessing H.C. decisions.”

    If the court does find in Palmer’s favour then there could well be implications for ALL state based travel bans and restrictions, including the “hard” borders in SA, NT, NSW and yes Qld.

  8. Complaints about Chalmers being too wordy. He thinks before answering and tries to be logical so as not to be caught out with grabs. Can’t win.

  9. Finton O’toole on LNL this week was interesting. He outlined the unresolved effect Nixon still has on today’s politics, the deliberate reduction of reality and truth in the relationship between politicIan’s (and I would argue, government and public institutions as well) and the people.

    It may seem a small step from spin (which has always been part of the deal) to unreality, but to get there requires immense cultural and institutional help… and crossing that fine line is like an event horizon.

  10. I think the transmission delay helps the interviewee. It makes the Interviewer look rude as they try to interrupt and appear to over talk the interviewee.

    The interviewee keeps going for half a sentence before they realise they are being interrupted.

  11. Rick Morton
    @SquigglyRick
    ·
    2m
    Missed Morrison saying we never foreshadowed all staff from an entire aged care facility being stood down in quarantine. “This was a new situation.” Well, except for Northwest Tasmania’s two hospitals back in early APRIL.

  12. Savva says the reason the feds haven’t acted sooner on aged care is because they didn’t want to look as though they were accepting responsibility for it. Unbelievable.

  13. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #476 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 7:37 am

    Confessions @ #463 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 7:25 am

    Barney:

    My employer introduced Covid leave months ago. The federal govt is extremely slow to respond to this.

    That’s great, but it doesn’t do anything to help workers who have no entitlement to sick leave.

    Indeed, and it highlights how slow the federal govt has been to act on this. Should’ve been introduced months ago to give people a safety net and ensure they comply with quarantine requirements.

  14. Sorry Barney, that should have been if the EMPLOYER doesn’t provide it.

    But you are right. It is the same logic for the government. It costs the government and society a lot if the worker doesn’t get leave and as a consequence spreads the virus.

  15. PaulTu says:

    Sunday, August 2, 2020 at 9:26 am

    [‘If the court does find in Palmer’s favour then there could well be implications for ALL state based travel bans and restrictions, including the “hard” borders in SA, NT, NSW and yes Qld.’]

    Yes, you are of course right. If Palmer gets up, the interpretation of s.92 will apply to all states and territories. It’s of interest to note that only a week or so ago, Morrison said (wwtte) that he was confident that the High Court would find in favour of open borders. He’s now realised the political perils of siding with Palmer, principally in the knowledge that closed borders have widespread public support.

  16. The Morrison government has never accepted any responsibility for the pandemic….even though they failed to shut down international travel in prompt fashion, even though they failed to manage ports and airports, even though they have sent out confused/pro-spread messaging on social distancing and lockdowns.

    They are evaders.

    Now they’re trying to evade their fiscal and economic responsibilities too.

  17. Mavis:’Morrison said (wwtte) that he was confident that the High Court would find in favour of open borders. ‘

    I can’t think of anything Morrison has said or done that shows he wants to do anything about controlling the virus. Unless of course, if he is forced to.

  18. Mavis @ #485 Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 – 7:49 am

    PaulTu says:

    Sunday, August 2, 2020 at 9:26 am

    [‘If the court does find in Palmer’s favour then there could well be implications for ALL state based travel bans and restrictions, including the “hard” borders in SA, NT, NSW and yes Qld.’]

    Yes, you are of course right. If Palmer gets up, the interpretation of s.92 will apply to all states and territories. It’s of interest to note that only a week or so ago, Morrison said (wwtte) that he was confident that the High Court would find in favour of open borders. He’s now realised the political perils of siding with Palmer, principally in the knowledge that closed borders have widespread public support.

    But does it have any implications on internal travel restrictions within a State?

    Could you not have a zone between the border and 100 m inside where you allow “unrestricted” travel, but then have restrictions on crossing into the next internal zone? 🙂

  19. The HC has long ago found that States have the right to regulate entry into their jurisdictions on public health grounds. The HC will find in favour of WA. Palmer is trying to make mischief. The Court should throw his application out with costs against him.

  20. BK, I suspect Marshall will be slightly glad to have the responsibility (of when and how to open the borders) lifted from his shoulders.

    The question is – who will be to blame for reintroducing the virus to those states that have eliminated it. It will be another Bart Simpson ‘I didn’t do it’ moment for Morrison and our increasingly unaccountable political system.

  21. “Savva says the reason the feds haven’t acted sooner on aged care is because they didn’t want to look as though they were accepting responsibility for it. Unbelievable.”

    ***

    That sounds about right. They are absolute scum.

  22. Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
    Sunday, August 2, 2020 at 9:58 am

    “But does it have any implications on internal travel restrictions within a State?

    Could you not have a zone between the border and 100 m inside where you allow “unrestricted” travel, but then have restrictions on crossing into the next internal zone? ”

    Interesting question.

    Could the ACT put a border 100m from Parliament House to keep the politicians in?

    Oh. Hold on.

  23. “I can’t think of anything Morrison has said or done that shows he wants to do anything about controlling the virus. Unless of course, if he is forced to.”

    ***

    Remember, he is a fundamentalist. It’s likely that he believes that this is somehow part of his gods plan or some shit. If the likes of Israel Folau and co think that the bushfires were their god’s work then what do they think COVID is I wonder? Genuine question.

  24. PeeBee:

    Sunday, August 2, 2020 at 9:55 am

    [‘I can’t think of anything Morrison has said or done that shows he wants to do anything about controlling the virus. Unless of course, if he is forced to.’]

    Yes, and nearly all the blame for the disgusting state of aged-care facilities should be sheeted home to him, little having been done to prepare for this pandemic. And where has Colbeck been(?).

  25. “ and thankyou for the photo of the fine bit of Victorian tech wot helped win the empire”

    A small point perhaps, but I’m pretty sure that the empire was mostly won over the preceding two centuries before breech loaders entered service and the Daffy’s gave their Martini Henry’s a good work out at Rorke’s Drift: via a combination of canons and sail, the muzzle loading Brown Bess, the cold hard steel of the bayonet and lashings of duplicitous ‘trade and settlement’ arrangements. What!

  26. Morrison and the Coalition will take what Palmer gives ie at election time with a huuuuuge amount of free advertising against Labor and for Coalition. He rips money from those who do not have it like Palmer.

    Morrison is showing no leadership on this crisis re how to manage the virus for the country, he does what he does best and that is play politics like Palmer.

    He thought he was smart going in with Palmer with the court case, he wasn’t

  27. If the High Court rules in favour of Palmer, every seat in WA is put into play. Labor stands a chance of gaining ALL of them.

    EDIT UPDATE: Some seats may well be a bridge too far for Labor, therefore the above sentence should’ve been “The LNP stands a strong chance of LOSING every seat they have.”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *