Miscellany: issues polling, drug law reform, Eden-Monaro wash-up, NZ poll

Concern about the state of the economy pushes climate change down the issue agenda batting order; evidence of a trend in favour of legalisation of cannabis; and New Zealand Labour still on track for a landslide in September.

Beneath this post is the latest offering from Adrian Beaumont on the polling picture in the United States ahead of the November presidential election. Closer to home, a few items of poll-related news:

• Pollster JWS Research has published results of its occasional True Issues survey, in which respondents are prompted to identify the five most important issues from a list of 20. The key changes since the last survey in February are a 17% increase for the economy and finances to 52% and an 11% drop in environment and climate change to 31%. The result for health issues has in fact changed little over recent surveys, although it has gained the top spot in the latest survey with a three point increase to 56%, overtaking cost of living which is down six to 53%. Interestingly, defence, security and terrorism is up six to 26%, which I take to reflect growing nervousness about China. Various other questions on COVID-19 are also featured, including findings that satisfaction with federal and state government performance is at record highs, with both scoring 19% for very good and 39% for good. The report notes that strongest results for state governments were recorded in Western Australia (83% combined very good and good) and the weakest were in Victoria (57%), although this is going off small sub-samples. The poll was conducted July 1 to 5 from a sample of 1000, just as the breakout in Victoria was beginning to gather pace.

• The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare has published the National Drug Strategy Household Survey 2019, in which 22,274 respondents were surveyed by Roy Morgan between April and September 2019 about their use of and attitudes towards illegal drugs. On the latter count, it found a plurality in favour of legalising cannabis for the first time, with 41% supportive and 37% opposed, with support having risen from 21% since 2007. It also found 57% support for allowing pill testing with 27% opposed.

• Kevin Bonham offers an interesting look at the unweighted data on voting intention that Essential Research effectively provides in its otherwise voting intention-less poll results, by way of identifying the size of the subsamples in its survey question breakdowns (for example, in the latest polls you can see from the “base” rows in the tables breaking down responses by voting intention that the sample included 299 Labor voters, 420 for the Coalition and 108 for the Greens). Notwithstanding the lack of weighting, the results paint an intuitively plausible picture of collapsing government support at the time of the bushfires, a reset when COVID-19 first reared its head, and an ongoing surge in Coalition support on the back of its support packages and the largely successful efforts to suppress the virus. These movements are considerably more variable than anything recorded by Newspoll, which has maintained the unnatural stability that was its hallmark before the 2019 election, despite its methodological overhaul.

Some wash-up from the Eden-Monaro by-election:

• John Black, former Labor Senator and now executive director of Australian Development Strategies, offered an ecological analysis of voting patterns in the Eden-Monaro by-election in The Australian on Monday. This pointed to a strong age-related effect in which older areas swung Labor and younger areas swung Liberal. Labor-swinging areas were also low-income with large accommodation and food industry workforces, while Liberal-swinging areas were white-collar and with high levels of employment in public administration. None of this would surprise students of the electorate and the result, given the Liberal swing in Queanbeyan and the Labor swing along the coast.

• Counting in the by-election is nearly complete, with today being the last day that postal votes received will be entered in the count. The latest results are continuing to be updated as they come through on my live results page. With probably a couple of dozen postals to be entered in the count, Labor holds a lead of 764. Of remaining interest will be the distribution of preferences, presumably to be conducted early next week, which will offer some insight into exactly how many Nationals and Shooters preferences flowed to Labor – contentious subjects both on the conservative side of politics.

Meanwhile across the pond:

• Roy Morgan published a New Zealand voting intention poll this week that was shortly overtaken by events, with the conservative opposition National Party experiencing its second leadership change in two months earlier in the week. The poll had Labor down two points from the previous poll in May to 54.5%, National up half a point to 27%, the Greens up two to 9%, Act New Zealand up 1.5% to a new peak of 5%, and New Zealand First apparently headed towards extinction with a one point drop to 1.5%. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 879, but all we are told of the field work period is that it was conducted during June.

• Concurrent with the New Zealand election on September 19 will be a non-binding referendum on cannabis legalisation. Poll results on this question are all over the shop: one poll last month, by Colmar Brunton, had 40% for and 49% against, while another, by Horizon Research, had 56% for and 43% against.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,562 comments on “Miscellany: issues polling, drug law reform, Eden-Monaro wash-up, NZ poll”

Comments Page 8 of 32
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  4. Greensborough Growler @ #348 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 7:38 pm

    C@tmomma @ #345 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 7:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #341 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 7:29 pm

    frednk @ #341 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 7:25 pm


    Greensborough Growler says:
    Friday, July 17, 2020 at 7:23 pm
    ….

    It’s an imposible dream so right up the Greens alley.

    A little less haste in opening, a little less international travel is not an impossible dream.
    Where we are now is bullshit.

    There is no cure for the virus atm. So, whenever you open the borders it will come.

    The virus will probably mutate to a less virulent form in due course or weaken.

    That’s not necessarily going to be the case. I read an article that put the case that COVID-19 may not weaken over time because it is already showing us that it can infect a host and move on to another host even before the first host shows symptoms and gets sick and maybe dies! That is, COVID-19 has no reason to weaken, it is achieving a virus’ aim of passing itself on without having to weaken and keep the host alive long enough to be passed along to a new host.

    Not much Spansih flu these days is there?

    There is a new Influenza every year. Even more than one. However, wrt the Spanish Flu this may help your understanding of why it is no longer prevalent:

    In contrast, a 2007 analysis of medical journals from the period of the pandemic found that the (‘Spanish Flu’) viral infection was no more aggressive than previous influenza strains. Instead, malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene, all exacerbated by the recent war, promoted bacterial superinfection. This superinfection killed most of the victims, typically after a somewhat prolonged death bed.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

  7. Zerlo says:
    Friday, July 17, 2020 at 7:43 pm
    Lars Von Trier

    Why? did you lose something?
    ____________________
    That’s just sooo adorable!

  9. frednk:

    Friday, July 17, 2020 at 7:39 pm

    [‘Mavis take care with the gambling, you never win.’]

    Well, frednk, I’m compelled at the moment to get stuck into dem no-good black-jack dealers at Star. Thanks for the advice not to, though my libido’s another matter.

  11. C@tmomma:

    Friday, July 17, 2020 at 7:47 pm

    [‘Anyhoo, I’m off for the night. Snark amongst yourselves. ‘]

    Dear Cat, on any criteria, you’re not exactly a shrinking violet.

  15. Mavis says:
    Friday, July 17, 2020 at 7:55 pm


    frednk:

    Friday, July 17, 2020 at 7:39 pm

    [‘Mavis take care with the gambling, you never win.’]

    Well, frednk, I’m compelled at the moment to get stuck into dem no-good black-jack dealers at Star. Thanks for the advice not to, though my libido’s another matter.

    Black jack can be fun for sure. I’m up but only because when I was up I stopped, that was about 25 years ago, in Vagus. The dealer was not impressed that I split aces.

  17. Greensborough Growler
    No, not much Spanish Flu about. We got ‘herd immunity’ . Shame about the need for the equivalent of 200,000,000 people today dying to get there eh ?

  19. I don’t think a Queensland vaccine will help much here in Brisbane but if we could inoculate Canberra the Parliament would be much improved.

  21. GG:

    [‘Sledging people not on the board is extremely pissweak, comrade…]

    Cobber, you’d be the best judge of sledging? Anyway moving on…

  22. One of the things I have lost track of is what is happening statistically.

    Out of every hundred who are infected how many show symptoms?
    Of those who show symptoms, how many end up in hospital?
    Of those who end up in hospital, how many end up dying?
    Of those who end up in hospital, how many end up with symptoms that last for a long time?

  23. I don’t approve of any human rights abuses.
    Never have. Never will.
    OTOH, Xibots only disapprove of human rights abuses in the West.

  25. boerwar

    I have been constantly against human right abuse.

    But you have not.

    You only attacked China when its in the news.

    But you never attacked Australia. But instead name call others.

    Very Trumpy like, very disgraceful.

  26. frednk:

    [‘The dealer was not impressed that I split aces.’]

    Did you win? Split Aces are usually a good had unless the dealer’s got a 5 or 6 – and even so, Peter inevitably pays Paul, in my experience.

  27. I have written many hundreds of posts about, for example, Australia’s history of mistreatment of Indigenous people, about the evils of western imperialism, and the evils of the West’s wars in the middle east.
    Xibots only attack the West.

  28. My favourite gambling story is the one about the man who waves his arms as he approaches the casino, announcing, ‘They built all this just so I can take their money off them!’

  29. Mavis says:

    Friday, July 17, 2020 at 8:30 pm

    frednk:

    [‘The dealer was not impressed that I split aces.’]

    Did you win? Spit Aces are usually a good had unless the dealer’s got a 5 or 6 – and even so, Peter inevitably pays Paul, in my experience.

    2* 21. And I never played again.

  32. Interestingly, I got the YouGov NewsPoll tonight – however after putting in my demographics etc it diverted off to non-poll related marketing and brand gumpff.

    I didn’t get to do the normal primary, 2pp or PPM.

    Must have filled their quota? Or perhaps they didn’t like my answers last time?

  33. Taiwan Envoy Exits Hong Kong After Refusing ‘One China’ Oath

    Taiwan’s top representative to Hong Kong returned home after refusing to sign a statement supporting the “one China” principle, the news site Up Media reported, in another example of the city’s tighter enforcement of Beijing’s policies.

    Kao Ming-tsun, the acting head of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Hong Kong, returned to Taiwan on Thursday after Hong Kong authorities didn’t renew his visa, Up Media said, citing an unnamed official at the agency. The head of the office has been barred from formally taking up the post for two years because of visa-related issues.

    A spokeswoman for the Hong Kong government on Friday referred requests for information to the Immigration Department, which said it doesn’t comment on individual cases. The Mainland Affairs Office in Taipei didn’t answer calls about the Up Media report.

    China has sought to isolate Taiwan since Tsai Ing-wen was elected president of the island in 2016 and refused to endorse Beijing’s position that both sides belong to “one China.” Hong Kong has been at the center of their disputes, with Tsai’s government supporting pro-democracy protests last year and, more recently, warning about the dangers of a sweeping national security law that Beijing imposed on the former British colony.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-17/taiwan-envoy-exits-hong-kong-after-balking-at-one-china-pledge?srnd=premium-asia

  36. Greensborough Growler @ #341 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 7:29 pm

    The virus will probably mutate to a less virulent form in due course or weaken.

    Doesn’t work like that. When the virus mutates (or equivalently, weakens) you have two strains of the virus; the original and the mutant. They’re both active, concurrently. The mutant strain doesn’t replace the original strain.

    That outcome may happen, over time, but only if the mutated strain is more contagious than the original and only if immunity to the mutant strain also confers immunity to the original. Not impossible, but certainly well short of “probably”. Even if a suitable mutation occurred right now, with ~14m hosts for the “it’ll kill you” variety of C19 that one’s going nowhere soon.

    Better to pin your hopes on a vaccine, imo. Random mutation won’t be saving anyone.

  37. And I am looking forward to the karma bus biting more people on the backside

    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    ·
    8h
    This is some hot-buttered, deep-fried irony right here.
    Quote Tweet

    NBC News
    @NBCNews
    · 13h
    Former game show host Chuck Woolery reveals his son tests positive for the coronavirus, a day after the host tweets “everyone is lying” about COVID-19, including the media, Democrats and the CDC. https://nbcnews.to/2Cb64TH

  38. The new ABC News/Washington Post poll out Friday morning shows 64% of Americans questioning his credibility on COVID-19, with nearly as many — 60% — disapproving of his handling of the pandemic.

    Tellingly, Trump this week backed a half step away from a confrontation with Dr. Anthony Fauci — even as people in his White House declared open warfare on him. He has not, though, come down firmly on Fauci’s side, just as he has not wavered in his pressure on schools to reopen this fall.

    Trump’s political response has been, in part, to try new lines of attacks out on former Vice President Joe Biden.

    But the president’s political predicament isn’t about Biden, or Fauci, or GOP critics or who is running his campaign. It’s about Trump himself, who is leading a nation that doesn’t trust him at the moment.

  39. Obsessed with yourself much, BB?

    Just look at the quality of the “debate” tonight, William, and last night’s, and the night before. And then tell us this is why you started Poll Bludger.

  40. Victoria @ #387 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 9:38 pm

    And I am looking forward to the karma bus biting more people on the backside

    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    ·
    8h
    This is some hot-buttered, deep-fried irony right here.
    Quote Tweet

    NBC News
    @NBCNews
    · 13h
    Former game show host Chuck Woolery reveals his son tests positive for the coronavirus, a day after the host tweets “everyone is lying” about COVID-19, including the media, Democrats and the CDC. https://nbcnews.to/2Cb64TH

    What a sketchy looking guy!

  42. Zerlo says:
    Friday, July 17, 2020 at 8:23 pm
    boerwar

    I have been constantly against human right abuse.

    But you have not.

    This is entirely wrong. Amongst the bludgers there’s been no clearer or more consistent voice raised against human rights abuse than boer’s.

  43. “boerwarsays:
    Friday, July 17, 2020 at 8:20 pm
    One of the things I have lost track of is what is happening statistically.”

    Depends which country you’re looking at. The most telling statistics at the moment arebthe positive test rate and the hospitalisation rate.

    Victoria at a positive test rate of 1.2% is a worry.

  45. BB

    There is part of the problem of polarisation to extremes. Debate demands that.

    Discussion can be friendly disagreement.
    Not your cancel culture of calling for people to be excluded from the blog.

    Edit: it might sound familiar to you as you accused me of that.

  48. No surprises here… Whatever it takes.

    As a reminder, Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell refused to allow Barack Obama to fill Antonin Scalia’s supreme court seat because the late justice died during an election year.

    The Republican leader argued that the winner of the 2016 election, which was still months away, should fill Scalia’s seat, infuriating Democrats.

    After winning the election, Trump filled Scalia’s seat with conservative justice Neil Gorsuch.

    But when McConnell was asked last year what he would do if a justice died in 2020 before the election, he smiled and replied, “Oh, we’d fill it.”

    Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has made clear she does not plan to leave the court anytime soon, despite her recurrence of cancer. However, McConnell has already made clear what he would do if she had to step aside.

  49. Secret document shows how many states are in “red zones” for coronavirus

    “18 states are in the “red zone” for Covid-19 cases, meaning they had more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population last week. Eleven states are in the “red zone” for test positivity, meaning more than 10 percent of diagnostic test results came back positive. ”

    […]The 18 states that are included in the red zone for cases in the document are: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.

    The 11 states that are in the red zone for test positivity are Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas and Washington.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/jul/17/us-coronavirus-covid-cases-death-toll-record-trump-poll-latest-updates?page=with:block-5f11dcb98f0852a9868eafa4#block-5f11dcb98f0852a9868eafa4

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