Beneath this post is the latest offering from Adrian Beaumont on the polling picture in the United States ahead of the November presidential election. Closer to home, a few items of poll-related news:
• Pollster JWS Research has published results of its occasional True Issues survey, in which respondents are prompted to identify the five most important issues from a list of 20. The key changes since the last survey in February are a 17% increase for the economy and finances to 52% and an 11% drop in environment and climate change to 31%. The result for health issues has in fact changed little over recent surveys, although it has gained the top spot in the latest survey with a three point increase to 56%, overtaking cost of living which is down six to 53%. Interestingly, defence, security and terrorism is up six to 26%, which I take to reflect growing nervousness about China. Various other questions on COVID-19 are also featured, including findings that satisfaction with federal and state government performance is at record highs, with both scoring 19% for very good and 39% for good. The report notes that strongest results for state governments were recorded in Western Australia (83% combined very good and good) and the weakest were in Victoria (57%), although this is going off small sub-samples. The poll was conducted July 1 to 5 from a sample of 1000, just as the breakout in Victoria was beginning to gather pace.
• The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare has published the National Drug Strategy Household Survey 2019, in which 22,274 respondents were surveyed by Roy Morgan between April and September 2019 about their use of and attitudes towards illegal drugs. On the latter count, it found a plurality in favour of legalising cannabis for the first time, with 41% supportive and 37% opposed, with support having risen from 21% since 2007. It also found 57% support for allowing pill testing with 27% opposed.
• Kevin Bonham offers an interesting look at the unweighted data on voting intention that Essential Research effectively provides in its otherwise voting intention-less poll results, by way of identifying the size of the subsamples in its survey question breakdowns (for example, in the latest polls you can see from the “base” rows in the tables breaking down responses by voting intention that the sample included 299 Labor voters, 420 for the Coalition and 108 for the Greens). Notwithstanding the lack of weighting, the results paint an intuitively plausible picture of collapsing government support at the time of the bushfires, a reset when COVID-19 first reared its head, and an ongoing surge in Coalition support on the back of its support packages and the largely successful efforts to suppress the virus. These movements are considerably more variable than anything recorded by Newspoll, which has maintained the unnatural stability that was its hallmark before the 2019 election, despite its methodological overhaul.
Some wash-up from the Eden-Monaro by-election:
• John Black, former Labor Senator and now executive director of Australian Development Strategies, offered an ecological analysis of voting patterns in the Eden-Monaro by-election in The Australian on Monday. This pointed to a strong age-related effect in which older areas swung Labor and younger areas swung Liberal. Labor-swinging areas were also low-income with large accommodation and food industry workforces, while Liberal-swinging areas were white-collar and with high levels of employment in public administration. None of this would surprise students of the electorate and the result, given the Liberal swing in Queanbeyan and the Labor swing along the coast.
• Counting in the by-election is nearly complete, with today being the last day that postal votes received will be entered in the count. The latest results are continuing to be updated as they come through on my live results page. With probably a couple of dozen postals to be entered in the count, Labor holds a lead of 764. Of remaining interest will be the distribution of preferences, presumably to be conducted early next week, which will offer some insight into exactly how many Nationals and Shooters preferences flowed to Labor – contentious subjects both on the conservative side of politics.
Meanwhile across the pond:
• Roy Morgan published a New Zealand voting intention poll this week that was shortly overtaken by events, with the conservative opposition National Party experiencing its second leadership change in two months earlier in the week. The poll had Labor down two points from the previous poll in May to 54.5%, National up half a point to 27%, the Greens up two to 9%, Act New Zealand up 1.5% to a new peak of 5%, and New Zealand First apparently headed towards extinction with a one point drop to 1.5%. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 879, but all we are told of the field work period is that it was conducted during June.
• Concurrent with the New Zealand election on September 19 will be a non-binding referendum on cannabis legalisation. Poll results on this question are all over the shop: one poll last month, by Colmar Brunton, had 40% for and 49% against, while another, by Horizon Research, had 56% for and 43% against.
Palmer’s border challenge has been postponed to 27 and 28 July.
Looks like competing epidemiological evidence and the WA CMO
http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/FCA/2020/962.html
It’s happening BW, and it’s not going to get better.
Stunts are all the Greens have got!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1284027849440190465
Player One says:
Friday, July 17, 2020 at 5:32 pm
It’s a clear reference to scrotum.
Not sexist or misandrist?
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Friday, July 17, 2020 at 5:39 pm
Stunts are all the Greens have got!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1284027849440190465‘
Just another Greens kiddy.
‘Bucephalus says:
Friday, July 17, 2020 at 5:40 pm
Player One says:
Friday, July 17, 2020 at 5:32 pm
It’s a clear reference to scrotum.
Not sexist or misandrist?’
What a fucking troll. Couldn’t see that his ‘soccer mum’ applied to Pala was misogynist but…
boerwar @ #306 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 5:42 pm
There is a reason these ratbags are not taken seriously.
Mainstream voters just hate that sort of shit.
The Magistrate got it exactly right!
At my cricket club we have ball bags Buce.
Do you think I should raise it at the next committee meeting?
Bucephalus @ #305 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 5:40 pm
Well, I guess you have to blame his parents for calling him “Scott”. I know a few “Scotts” and they all get called “Scotty”. Is that sexism?
Now now, BW.
William Bowe @ #312 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 5:54 pm
Later, later, WB!
lizzie @ #310 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 5:49 pm
He may not be able to be jailed, but he can certainly be closed down and fined. The police should monitor his next function. As soon as the 21st person enters, they can then shut the place down and issue fines. Windfall for the government!
I have to say it’s very bold for the conservative media and some politicians to be bleating for Andrews to resign given Covid-19 has a long way to run yet. I find it quite unlikely that the Melbourne spike in cases will be the last to flare up before a vaccine is found (though we can all hope). I’d say the PM and other Premiers are very aware of this so are quite keen to avoid a precedent like that being made (in particular the PM likely remembers when attacking Andrews over schools blew up spectacularly in their face all of a few weeks ago).
Another thing I am curious of is Andrew’s PB critics seeming to thing a better approach is to take policy direction from lobbyists and going on holidays. Um, ok
Player One @ #314 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 5:58 pm
It’s a publicity stunt.
lizzie @ #308 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 5:49 pm
I saw that. I expect that NSW police will be only too happy to accept his gracious invitation.
I wiil now look at the local Nine news. The jerk in question may get a run. Of course he may just be sounding off.
C@momma re nursing your husband
There is no only too it.
Don’t underplay the contribution in terms of sheer tenacity to home nurse anyone through a long decline. The guilt you can feel for everything including your own good health can not be underplayed. The sheer will required to meet that commitment 24/7 cannot be understated.
I returned to working in aged care at a time it promised to be much much better and always stated the aim was to make it good enough for my mum. Now I wouldn’t even send my husband for respite because after an initial improvement it is the worst I have ever known it and that spans 48 years.
The royal commission into aged care and the virus creating a need to find jobs for the massive number of unemployed could be seen as an option to reset and recalibrate our health systems for the long term aged, disabled and sick. I am pretty sure that won’t happen and it will just get worse. I pity the clients, the carers and the families. As a country we should be better than that, but as this type of care is predominantly women’s work I know why it won’t improve under this government.
Player One
He will be in the AHA, he knows who calls the shots over there.Meanwhile being given a weeks notice means it will be a 7 day hearty party party party .
Player One
Where is NSW Government, NSW Environmental Agency, NSW Food Authority ?
boerwar @ #295 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 5:29 pm
I happen to be quite familiar with the Whingers of Wamberal. They are all Liberals who have built their monolithic Malibuesque McMansions on a tiny strip of land located between the ocean and a place behind them where the tide comes in via an inlet to the side of them. Of course the sand which is beneath their houses will be washed away by any East Coast Low which comes along!
In fact, all the guy who was interviewed on Channel 9 News this after noon could say was Central Coast Council are to blame for this! (maybe that’s because Labor have the most seats on Council), about 100 times in a 3 minute interview. This lot even ran candidates at the last Council elections with one policy: that the Council, ie the Ratepayers, pay for a wall!! to be built in front of their multi-million dollar homes! A wall, which would have to be so big and so expensive that it would be a blight on the landscape. Not to mention the fact that their stupid wall would be washed away anyway the next time a storm surge hit the coast!
They’re just a bunch of Liberal whiners and grinders who won’t admit that they’ve been told that what has happened was going to happen. They are best ignored. Except they seem to have a direct line to the media. Funny that.
Except for a post by FredNK earlier I see the right is demonising the Greens again.
Well done. Continue the environmental politics is evil and kill your grandkids.
Assantdj,
My late husband was allergic to hospital. So, every time he had an internal haemorrhage he had no choice but to go back to hospital until they could sort him out. But he was out again as soon as he could consciously pick up the phone and tell us to come in and get him. So he was mostly nursed at home. He preferred it that way. He could smoke to his hearts content, as he knew he was on the downhill run and to do so wouldn’t make any difference anymore and it gave him some degree of comfort in the perverse way smoking does. And it went on like this for about 3-4 years, until such time as he could no longer call us to steal him away. Still, he was happier that way. 🙂
FMD, what a bunch of school kids. Would be funny but from what Truffles said today they have influence.
…………………………………………………………………………………………….
A secret code has started appearing on office windows around Parliament House. It’s a small sticker — four wolf claw marks on a clear background.outside the suites of Liberal lower house members Andrew Hastie, Tim Wilson and Phillip Thompson, Liberal senator James Paterson and Labor senator Kimberley Kitching. The group jokingly calls itself “The Wolverines”, a reference to the 1984 flick Red Dawn where high school football stars Patrick Swayze and Charlie Sheen stop a Soviet invasion of the US.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/strewth/strewth-coalition-labor-mps-form-canberra-wolf-pack/news-story/295bfe1ecb6a50fe8966821ab9d489e7
I don’t and I won’t subscribe to the Australian. So can you give me the gist.
Here I am, good as gold. Not participating, or kibbitzing (well, maybe kibbitzing a bit).
Anyway, can we put to rest the oft-cited meme that I am the only bad guy on this blog and the sole source of evil vibes?
bill @ #325 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 6:34 pm
Look up “rabies” and you’ll probably get the gist. A group of parliamentarians, all as mad as cut snakes, prepared to attack their own party to ruin the relationship between us and our major trading partner 🙁
Bushfire Bill @ #326 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 6:38 pm
No.
i have just been phone polled on voting intentions in victoria and the state and federal handling of the covid 19 situation. P.S i live in a Melbourne suburb.
Trump’s Niece To Maddow: Trump Used Anti-Semitic Slurs And The N-word | MSNBC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jxj2HGYiWPM
You are the Devil, BB.
Obsessed with yourself much, BB?
Saw this one today. It was quite emotional. I suspect because it brought home the impact of the Virus.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-17/canberra-farewells-first-and-last-qantas-747-to-touch-down/12466458
Bill Mitchell on the employment statistics
Australia labour market – one step forward up a gigantic mountain
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=45398
Why do people look forward to the weekend?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1283996300740984832
Cuomo on Trump’s priorities: How does he have time for this BS? (CNN)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDlzMiEV75k
William Bowe @ #332 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 6:45 pm
Perhaps he could start another vanity blog.
I was just polled by Community Engagement about Andrews and covid. One question on ScoMo performance
guytaur says:
Friday, July 17, 2020 at 6:21 pm
Except for a post by FredNK earlier I see the right is demonising the Greens again.
Well done. Continue the environmental politics is evil and kill your grandkids.
I also note that Adam Bandt has pulled his head in a stopped making a fool of himself in Victoria. Why Bandt wanted to join Michael O’Brien yapping in the wilderness was beyond me.
The sad thing is, the Greens supporting elimination will make it less likely to become policy, but you can’t hold their political failure against them supporting a sane policy.
frednk @ #339 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 7:20 pm
It’s an imposible dream so right up the Greens alley.
Greensborough Growler says:
Friday, July 17, 2020 at 7:23 pm
….
It’s an imposible dream so right up the Greens alley.
A little less haste in opening, a little less international travel is not an impossible dream.
Where we are now is bullshit.
And I add GG if it is so impossible, how did WA succeed?
frednk @ #341 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 7:25 pm
There is no cure for the virus atm. So, whenever you open the borders it will come.
The virus will probably mutate to a less virulent form in due course or weaken.
Greensborough Growler @ #341 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 7:29 pm
That’s not necessarily going to be the case. I read an article that put the case that COVID-19 may not weaken over time because it is already showing us that it can infect a host and move on to another host even before the first host shows symptoms and gets sick and maybe dies! That is, COVID-19 has no reason to weaken, it is achieving a virus’ aim of passing itself on without having to weaken and keep the host alive long enough to be passed along to a new host.
The Lincoln Project – Story Hour Episode 1 & 2:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTpF-ucHCqA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KoY-eYOB7FE
One shouldn’t share such personal details on a blog such as this, but I need to get this off my chest. Some of the side-effects of a new med I’ve been prescribed are grandiosity, increased libido, a propensity to gamble uncontrollably. The drug, which regulates the neurotransmitter dopamine, is highly recommended, and it’s cheaper than coke – $5.60 per script.
frednk @ #342 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 7:27 pm
Success is a time related achievement in this case.
I’m happy for you bask in the arrogance of missing a bullet atm. The problem for you ultimately is there are more bullets in the gun.
C@tmomma @ #345 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 7:34 pm
Not much Spansih flu these days is there?
Mavis take care with the gambling, you never win.
Zerlo says:
Friday, July 17, 2020 at 7:34 pm
The Lincoln Project – Story Hour Episode 1 & 2:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTpF-ucHCqA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KoY-eYOB7FE
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