Essential Research: leadership ratings and the return of coronavirus

The Melbourne coronavirus takes its toll on the standing of the Andrews government, and a small amount of gloss comes off Scott Morrison’s still-impressive ratings.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research, which a fortnight ago published its first coronavirus-free poll since January, has naturally revived its interest in the subject. The poll finds 36% of respondents rating themselves very concerned about the virus, up from 25% when the question was last asked three weeks ago. The state breakdowns have it at 46% in Victoria, though New South Wales isn’t far behind at 42%.

The poll also finds approval of the federal government’s handling of the matter down from 70% when the question as last asked three weeks ago to 64%, while small sample breakdowns concerning state governments’ responses have the Victorian government’s favourable rating slumping from 65% to 49%. Below are charts recording the progress of these results since the pollster first asked the question in relation to the federal government in March and the state governments in April, although at this stage I only have “good” and not “poor” ratings from the latest poll. Keep in mind that the sample sizes for the Victorian results is only around 275.

The poll also features the pollster’s monthly (actually a bit longer than that on occasion, the previous result having been from May 28-31) leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison down two on approval to 63% and up one on disapproval to 27%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 44% and down two to 28%. The latter numbers are rather a lot different from Newspoll, whose poll a fortnight ago had Albanese on 42% for both approval and disapproval. Morrison holds a lead of 50-27 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 53-23 last time.

The BludgerTrack aggregates have been updated with these numbers. Essential Research should publish the full report for the poll later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The federal government’s poor rating on COVID-19 is up four to 16%, while the Victorian government’s has doubled to 26%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,482 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings and the return of coronavirus”

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  1. Not one of those halfwit so called journos pulled him up that he has took 326 million from Tafe and 3 billion out of vocational education as a whole.

  2. Counted in the “employed” number are people with at least 1 hour of work a week. Thats a bit of a joke. Also as many people have been complaining for years, the ABS conflates those outside the labour force to those not wanting or needing a job. They simply don’t account for people who just give up looking – through sheer despair.

    If you ask me, the ABS should start counting all people who *WANT* a job but can’t get one – not just those who are still actively looking.

  3. steve davissays:
    Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 12:31 pm
    Smoko cut $326 million from TAFES last year.F……g hypocrites.
    ___________
    Thank goodness Howard and Gillard cut single parents payments back in the day or we would have a real need for budget repair!

  4. Morrison said the jobtrainer package “works hand in glove with jobkeeper and jobseeker,” which is why they sound like a collectable set.

    It’s a Joblot.

  5. The term “Budget Repair” was coined by the MSM once they could no longer pretend that Abbott had the first idea of what he was doing.

  6. boerwar @ #1136 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 12:24 pm

    Sorry but White House has been over taken by Russia, QAnon, and rich white people.

  7. Seeing that the budget doesn’t really mean anything, are we going to send homeless people back to the streets? With many hotels seemingly being empty for years, can we end homelessness? Silver lining perhaps.

  8. Morrison said the jobtrainer package “works hand in glove with jobkeeper and jobseeker,” which is why they sound like a collectable set.

    It’s a Joblot.
    ______
    With the umbrella name JobCrap

  9. To those who think that the announcements from the government about extending Jobseeker at its new rate and what is going to happen to Jobkeeper have been slow to appear, we now have the answer.
    Morrison couldn’t move on Jobseeker until his job provider mates had time to set up high end government rorting operations to train all the leaners in how to be most useful to future big donor clients.
    The announcement of job trainer now completes the set. Current jobseekers and all those about to be unwillingly transitioned from Jobkeeper to Jobseeker will now have a one stop experience. The mutual obligation enforcers with shovel everyone into job training, provided by their newly created training subsidiary. They will provide short courses in how to be an overworked slave to those big businesses still around to offer insecure work to the less fortunate. If you don’t like it hard luck there are now 20 people vying for the job so put up and shut up.

    Will I be proven correct, only time will tell.

  10. There was a lot of hysteria in the air in 1975, and just in Australia. It’s easy to see that significant members of the right wing establishment would been egging Kerr on to take action. I don’t see that as a plot per se, but maybe that is being pedantic as all this would have been occurring behind the scenes, and may indeed have had some form of loose coordination (at some gentlemen’s club somewhere).

    But specific monarchic plotting goes against the evidence and the Queen’s reputation and actions (as revealed in various memoirs) which is of somewhat scrupulous regard for propriety. In that regard it does come to resemble anti-vaxxers, or JFK freaks or ‘Israel is behind absolutely everything bad’obsessives.

  11. Julian Andrew
    @JulianAndrew63
    ·
    1m
    Scott Morrison went out of his way in press conference just now to praise NSW Health tracing & imply that Victoria had failed in this respect – thereby needing Feds to step in with defence force etc. I didn’t hear anything about Ruby Princess though. He is a nasty smarmy bastard.

  12. C@tmomma @ #1080 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 11:02 am

    Victoria @ #1062 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 10:37 am

    C@t

    Another cool bird out and about

    I just hope the damn fox doesn’t catch him and the missus when they build their bower for their spring brood! 😡

    The bower is not a nest. The male builds a bower on his own, and he performs in it to attract females, with whom he mates if they are impressed enough to think he’s sexy.

    The female builds a nest, on her own, in a tree, lays her eggs, incubates them, then raises the chicks completely on her own. The mature males have no interaction with the females or the chicks/immature birds at all, apart from the mating display.

    Here is an excellent article:

    https://www.bushheritage.org.au/species/bowerbirds

  13. I have been updating my knowledge about the dismissal.

    I have always been interested in politics and used to discuss issues at length with my Dad. I was surprised to realise that although I know he was furious about what happened I didn’t really have much memory of the event.
    Having now looked at the dates I realise this is another case of my real life interfering with my ability to stay abreast of current events.

    This puts into context something I have always believed. The general political knowledge and deep understanding of events required to make informed decisions is not something that people who are working and raising families always have time for. Maybe with smart technology now the norm this may be something that could be harnessed but it would need to be delivered in a way that captured the imagination.

  14. Emma Alberici
    @albericie
    ·
    2m
    An interview with former PM @HonTonyAbbott in which both he & @TheIPA
    are aghast that Australian politicians have become “enthralled” by “unelected experts” – scientists, you know, like public health authorities. “It’s not the Australian way”

  15. SA records one new case

    The woman travelled from overseas to Victoria, where she tested negative twice while in quarantine, before coming to South Australia.

    Premier Steven Marshall has now announced coronavirus testing will be mandatory for those travelling into the state from Victoria.

    From midnight on Saturday, they will have to take the test within 24 hours and then again on their 12th day of quarantine.

  16. Lizzie
    If Henderson needs a case study for her apperanance on Q&A i am available.
    I changed my behaviour after seeing 10k marching in the streets.
    I became complacent.

  17. I suppose Tony Abbot is now sufficiently removed from the liberal party apparatus for the ABC to flog him with something other than a wet paper towel

  18. The Sydney Morning Herald
    @smh
    The south-west Sydney cluster is a more infectious form of the virus than previously seen, the state’s Chief Health Officer says, as NSW recorded 10 new cases of COVID-19

    This isn’t what she said exactly.

    On Wednesday, Dr Chant said cases in the Casula cluster were becoming infectious as soon as one day after contracting the coronavirus.

    She said while the incubation period for COVID-19 is usually within 14 days, “people have developed the symptoms, more towards the one-day period than the 14[days]”.

    Earlier on Thursday, NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard warned young people not to become complacent about the threat of coronavirus as they are often the least ill but “can be the most infectious”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/crossroads-hotel-outbreak-continues-to-grow-as-nsw-records-10-new-covid-19-cases-20200716-p55ckc.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1594862796

  19. In WA the complacency had definitely crept in, which means if an exempt traveller from interstate was infectious we could also lose our regained covid free status.
    Yesterday at our local supermarket I noticed that a lot more people are again standing on the distance markers and the sanitiser station was being used. I hope that this sense of caution is also rising Australia wide.

  20. Lizzie

    I’m not quite understanding what Dr chant is actually alluding to.

    Typically infection happens on 5th day.

    So the timeline they are making with respect of the casula cluster is a little strange.

  21. casey briggs
    @CaseyBriggs
    ·
    1h
    The Crossroads Hotel cluster now numbers 40 cases (including four cases found since 8pm last night that will be included in tomorrow’s statistics)
    casey briggs
    @CaseyBriggs
    ·
    1h
    10 new cases in NSW today, 6 of them locally acquired.

    3 are linked to Crossroads Hotel (one we knew of yesterday)

    And then there are 3 under investigation: One from Western Sydney, one from South Western Sydney, one from the Wollongong area.

    Those last three could be a worry

  22. Yep.

    Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    ·
    1h
    This is a sensible way to look at the labour market at the moment
    Quote Tweet

    Alison Pennington
    @ak_pennington
    · 1h
    The jobs crisis is cementing. Latest #ABS figures unemployment incrs to 992,000. I add 230,000 “employed” but wrkd zero hrs, 920,000 fewer hrs than normal,+400,000 who left labour market since March. Effective unemplymnt 19%. #ausecon
    Show this thread

  23. Victoria

    First, the SMH misquoted her.
    Second, there was apparently a young man who was a “super-spreader” which I think accelerated the rate of infections around him.

  24. Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    3h
    “Passengers & crew from the #RubyPrincess should have gone straight from the virus-ridden ship into mandatory quarantine instead of home self-isolation.”

    Instead
    @PeterDutton_MP
    let the boat dock and disembark in Sydney & spread COVID-19 across Australia.
    Quarantine could have softened Ruby Princess debacle, inquiry told
    Passengers and crew from the Ruby Princess should have gone straight from the virus-ridden ship into mandatory quarantine instead of home self-isolation, an inquiry into the ship has heard.
    afr.com

  25. Victoria @ #1180 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 1:59 pm

    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    3h
    “Passengers & crew from the #RubyPrincess should have gone straight from the virus-ridden ship into mandatory quarantine instead of home self-isolation.”

    Instead
    @PeterDutton_MP
    let the boat dock and disembark in Sydney & spread COVID-19 across Australia.
    Quarantine could have softened Ruby Princess debacle, inquiry told
    Passengers and crew from the Ruby Princess should have gone straight from the virus-ridden ship into mandatory quarantine instead of home self-isolation, an inquiry into the ship has heard.
    afr.com

    If only Labor had made more of this while they had the chance.
    No one cares anymore because everything is Dan’s fault.

  26. lizzie @ #1163 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 1:08 pm

    Julian Andrew
    @JulianAndrew63
    ·
    1m
    Scott Morrison went out of his way in press conference just now to praise NSW Health tracing & imply that Victoria had failed in this respect – thereby needing Feds to step in with defence force etc. I didn’t hear anything about Ruby Princess though. He is a nasty smarmy bastard.

    ‘I didn’t hear anything about Ruby Princess though.’
    Aside from the odd tweet from KK Labor doesn’t seem to have been bothered by it. I guess it’s ok then.
    Otherwise…….
    Scrooter would be toast!

    Toast I tells ya!!!

  27. Contract tracing is only as good as the honesty of those interviewed.
    Is the infection timeline now 1 day or does the pub cluster actually extend back further and has only recently been detected. Maybe a previous traveller from the same cluster in Victoria.
    If it has changed to one day, hard lockdown and quick suppression should be possible with lots of testing.
    There is so much unknown about this virus and it is strange that it is being accepted as fact, that this major change has occurred and is being reported without any scientific basis.

  28. Assantdj

    Yes. For this virus to be contained, it needs people to behave in a very altruistic way.
    Unfortunately not every one does.

  29. Mundo
    It doesn’t matter what Labor politicians say because the media do not report it unless they can make it into a labor stuff up.
    The labor premiers should never have accepted Morrisons National cabinet idea, it has given all the credit for when things went well to Morrison and now there are problems it’s all labors fault.
    Having successfully side lined federal labor Morrison is now coming after the state premiers and is being enabled by the media.

    The question for me is will Morrison tank the economy then call an early election and retire because of the strain on Jen and the girl. Thus handing the poisoned chalice to labor or will he ride it out further, creating more damage before calling an election and retiring because of the strain on Jen and the girls.

  30. Zerlo

    Thanks, that paints a much clearer picture. Disturbing to note that both underemployment and under-utilisation were higher than in the GFC even before the Covid19 virus shutdowns.

    We seem to have another program the governmetn does not want to talk about: JobFantasy.

  31. [“Passengers & crew from the #RubyPrincess should have gone straight from the virus-ridden ship into mandatory quarantine instead of home self-isolation.”]

    This is the submission of Counsel Assisting not the inquiry’s finding.

  32. Assantdj, if your scenario does come about, I would be advocating that the new Labor government immediately launch Royal Commissions to shine a light on every dodgy enterprise undertaken by the ATM governments. There are too many to list here but we can all think of several.

  33. Big A Adrian says:
    Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 12:40 pm

    Counted in the “employed” number are people with at least 1 hour of work a week. Thats a bit of a joke. Also as many people have been complaining for years, the ABS conflates those outside the labour force to those not wanting or needing a job. They simply don’t account for people who just give up looking – through sheer despair.
    —————————————
    From a statistical perceptive it has to start at 1.

    The number of people that don’t seem to understand this is frustrating.

    The people that don’t look at counted in the workforce participation rate. The ABS releases a range of employment data.

  34. lizzie @ #1168 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 1:27 pm

    Emma Alberici
    @albericie
    ·
    2m
    An interview with former PM @HonTonyAbbott in which both he & @TheIPA
    are aghast that Australian politicians have become “enthralled” by “unelected experts” – scientists, you know, like public health authorities. “It’s not the Australian way”

    So “not the Australian way” would also include unelected so called experts abbott appointed like tony shepherd to the Budget Commission of Audit in 2015 and Nev Power recently appointed by morrison.

    I’m sure there were others as well.

  35. Good Afternoon

    The latest outbreaks of the virus really do highlight that you cannot have an economy without healthy people. Again.

    Victoria is spot on about this.

    The good part of the reality is that voters will realise the media has been lying to them. The bad part is some will make a harder embrace of the axis Trump and Abbot represents as Zerlo has outlined. Russia/Qanon/and the rich elite.

    In fact things are so bad that this group has formed.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/01/06/the-ultra-wealthy-who-argue-that-they-should-be-paying-higher-taxes

    Thanks to our more egalitarian outlook of having social security and universal medicare and the like we are better off as we have had less cutting and slashing of society institutions to help people live in dignity.

    From unions fighting for a living wage to the whole fair go concept restricting the right’s cut slash and burn of those society institutions.

    The virus has made cutting education health and taxes to support the rich elite and increase inequality in our society untenable. The attack on science is has been unmasked as well.

    Its an amazing start to our century not seen since we started the nineteenth century and people are starting to realise why we put those institutions in place to protect the safety and dignity of people.
    Its a very slow burn but the Canberra Press Gallery following the Murdoch line on science is being starkly revealed.

    Its going to be very interesting as the right propaganda business continues to collapse and the new independent media sources that are not just spouting propaganda gain more prominence.

    Those that downplay the events in the US are not realising the societal change that is occurring.
    We see it first in the US but be in no doubt those same forces are in operation here and destroying the whole Neo Liberal Project of the Thatcher Reagan Murdoch axis.

  36. @Amy_Siskind tweets

    We surpassed 3,600,000 confirmed cases.

    Today alone, more than 71,000 new cases, and 1,000 dead.

    No plan. No national strategy. Not even a damn face mask mandate. Tiny hands covered in blood. Republicans complicit in the genocide on the American people.

  37. What has the world come to where you can’t now inadvertently omit to declare the total interest earned on investments in your tax return? Much to my embarrassment, my accountant’s figures didn’t match mine. Apparently the procedure now is for the ATO to send to one’s accountant a notice of total interest earned in a fin/year. In mitigation of my accidental mistake, I informed my accountant that my memory’s not as good as it used to be. She wasn’t all that impressed. Anyway, damn Josh, I’m going to plead hardship. It brought back terrible memories of when I unpremeditatedly(?) transferred trust monies to general without authority to do so, and without having done any work on the client’s file.

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