Essential Research: leadership ratings and the return of coronavirus

The Melbourne coronavirus takes its toll on the standing of the Andrews government, and a small amount of gloss comes off Scott Morrison’s still-impressive ratings.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research, which a fortnight ago published its first coronavirus-free poll since January, has naturally revived its interest in the subject. The poll finds 36% of respondents rating themselves very concerned about the virus, up from 25% when the question was last asked three weeks ago. The state breakdowns have it at 46% in Victoria, though New South Wales isn’t far behind at 42%.

The poll also finds approval of the federal government’s handling of the matter down from 70% when the question as last asked three weeks ago to 64%, while small sample breakdowns concerning state governments’ responses have the Victorian government’s favourable rating slumping from 65% to 49%. Below are charts recording the progress of these results since the pollster first asked the question in relation to the federal government in March and the state governments in April, although at this stage I only have “good” and not “poor” ratings from the latest poll. Keep in mind that the sample sizes for the Victorian results is only around 275.

The poll also features the pollster’s monthly (actually a bit longer than that on occasion, the previous result having been from May 28-31) leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison down two on approval to 63% and up one on disapproval to 27%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 44% and down two to 28%. The latter numbers are rather a lot different from Newspoll, whose poll a fortnight ago had Albanese on 42% for both approval and disapproval. Morrison holds a lead of 50-27 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 53-23 last time.

The BludgerTrack aggregates have been updated with these numbers. Essential Research should publish the full report for the poll later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The federal government’s poor rating on COVID-19 is up four to 16%, while the Victorian government’s has doubled to 26%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,482 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings and the return of coronavirus”

Comments Page 25 of 30
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  2. Thus handing the poisoned chalice to labor or will he ride it out further, creating more damage before calling an election and retiring because of the strain on Jen and the girls.

    I do not think this is going to happen for two main reasons.

    Firstly, Scott Morrison has visions of John Howard in his head and also seeking retribution from the electorate on John Howard’s behalf. So he will try to be PM for as long as John Howard, his mentor, and he will try to win more elections than Howard and beat Bob Hawke, on Howard’s behalf. Also to out perform his mentor and show him how to do it, how to beat Labor, over and over and over and over again.

    Secondly, I believe Scott Morrison really wants to show Labor how to keep winning elections when you have a massive Budget Deficit. Nothing would tickle his perverse poltical fancy more than that. Until he can be the Prime Minister to bring the Budget back into Surplus, as he has always said he would do. It may take him longer than he originally thought but now that he is the job he has craved all his life, he won’t let go that easily.

  3. A sane take on Daniel Andrews

    It’s really hard to debate with someone who uses #DansFault because they are correct to a degree. What they all fail to mention is that labor is aware of their mistakes and talk about it while lnp hides their mistakes #IStandWithDan https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/dan-damned–scott-scot-free,14108#.Xw979qBzllY.twitter

    This is generally true. Unless you are on this blog brooking no acknowledgement of this with the public housing problems just because they have been highlighted by a Green politician as well as some Federal Labor ones.

  4. Florida is a shit show. All in the middle of summer

    Andy Slavitt @ House with garden
    @ASlavitt
    The state of Florida now has more daily cases now than NY at its peak. A couple things need to happen now.
    1:56 PM · Jul 16, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

  5. Victoria @ #1205 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 2:58 pm

    Florida is a shit show. All in the middle of summer

    Andy Slavitt @ House with garden
    @ASlavitt
    The state of Florida now has more daily cases now than NY at its peak. A couple things need to happen now.
    1:56 PM · Jul 16, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

    The state Donald Trump wants to hold the Republican Convention in.

    I bet he’s moronic enough, and narcissistic enough, to believe that the number of cases in Florida will have tailed off by then.

  8. Zerlo says:
    Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 2:18 pm
    Damn Victorians!

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6836410/hundreds-of-victorians-switch-to-act-number-plates/?cs=14225

    These would be the people who moved from Victoria some time ago and never bothered to change to ACT registration. Now that a Victorian number plate is seen as a handicap to travelling interstate, they are re-registering.

    Otherwise they could illegally invest in multiple number plates James Bond style:

    Thousands of drivers using illegal ‘James Bond-style rotating numberplate covers’ to avoid traffic fines

    The gadgets are just like the one on the Aston MartinDB5 spy car but while drivers are using them on their own vehicles you could get TWO years in prison if caught

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/thousands-drivers-using-illegal-james-8898727</a.

  9. Vic,
    COVID-19 likes moist, cold environments. Hence one of the unspoken reasons why Melbourne has suffered a breakout. Among others, sure.

    It also appears to like moist and humid environments, like Florida.

    In fact, it is almost like it is saying to the world, ‘Hold my coat! Ain’t nothing gonna break my stride!’

    Last night I had the strangest dream
    I sailed away to China
    In a little row boat to find ya
    And you said you had to get your laundry cleaned
    Didn’t want no one to hold you What does that mean
    And you said

    Ain’t nothin’ gonna break-a my stride
    Nobody gonna slow me down, oh no
    I got to keep on movin’
    Ain’t nothin’ gonna break-a my stride
    I’m running and I won’t touch ground
    Oh no, I got to keep on movin’

  11. WeWantPaul @ #1211 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 3:06 pm

    mundo @ #1183 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 12:04 pm

    WeWantPaul @ #1175 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 1:46 pm

    steve davis @ #1141 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 10:31 am

    Smoko cut $326 million from TAFES last year.F……g hypocrites.

    They are much much worse than that.

    Wait till Labor finds out.
    Scrooter will be toast!

    Toast I tells ya!!!

    Between the Murdoch Sewer, Costello TV, and SevenWest he’ll be fine.

    Don’t tell mundo. He inanely believes he’s onto something. 😐

  12. @sallymcmanus tweets

    JobSeeker cannot return to the starvation rates of Newstart.
    It was wrong then and wrong now.
    We face serious and widespread unemployment & must look after everyone, otherwise we are not “all in this together”.
    #RaisetheRateforGood

  13. @ManMadeMoon tweets

    This gent is not a Hollywood damp blouse like I am. He’s the kind of guy other Republicans love to imagine they are when they’re watching war movies. If Rob sees a danger to the nation when he looks at Trump, you’d best pay attention. https://twitter.com/robdubois/status/1283534166127251456

    @RobDuBois tweets

    I am a #RepublicanVoterAgainstTrump. It has nothing to do with the party he pretends to, or preference for another candidate.

    He is a threat to America.

    I live to protect America

    His is a pure cult of personality: watch and learn.

    I stand between America and her enemies. https://twitter.com/projectlincoln/status/1283506483653738496

  17. @KetanJO tweets

    Cool cool just the national broadcaster boths-sidesing actual lies about a deadly dies disease in the middle of a pandemic. https://twitter.com/QandA/status/1283581365716312064

    @QandA tweets

    .@SenSHenderson has linked Melbourne’s COVID spike and the recent Black Live Matter protests, saying “Daniel Andrews blames law abiding Victorian families for doing the wrong thing rather than 10,000 illegal protesters?” Sarah joins Monday’s #QandA panel. https://ab.co/32ntek4 https://twitter.com/QandA/status/1283581365716312064/photo/1

  18. ACT has imposed mandatory 14 day isolation for people who visited the NSW covid hot spots:

    Despite the ACT recording no new cases of COVID-19 since last week, the ACT Government has introduced a new Public Health Direction, that came into effect at midday today.

    From today, anyone who has been in the affected locations in south-west Sydney identified by NSW Health is legally required to self-quarantine for 14 days from the date they were there, even if they do not have any symptoms.

    ACT Health said the new direction was a safety precaution, designed to limit the spread of coronavirus.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-16/act-coronavirus-public-health-direction-after-sydney-outbreak/12461134

  20. Ketan Joshi
    @KetanJ0
    ·
    4m
    Cool cool just the national broadcaster boths-sidesing actual lies about a deadly disease in the middle of a pandemic.
    ***

    QandA
    @QandA
    · 3h
    .@SenSHenderson has linked Melbourne’s COVID spike and the recent Black Live Matter protests, saying “Daniel Andrews blames law abiding Victorian families for doing the wrong thing rather than 10,000 illegal protesters?” Sarah joins Monday’s #QandA panel. https://ab.co/32ntek4

  21. Fantastic essay by Jennifer Mercieca:

    Since 2015 Trump has used rhetorical strategies like American exceptionalism and ad populum [essentially, the argument that because many believe something it must be so] to appeal to these authoritarian voters. Taken together these appeals created a narrative that told three truths about the relationship between Trump and his followers. First, Trump loved his people (who loved each other and loved him) and his country. Second, Trump would use his powers to crush their shared enemies, which would restore American greatness and authoritarian voters’ place in the social hierarchy. And third, Trump would break the phony political rules because the system itself was so broken and corrupted that violating the rules was actually more democratic than following the rules.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/15/authoritarian-voters-donald-trump-election

  22. guytaur @ #1219 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 3:32 pm

    @JasonClareMP tweets

    The Declaration of Independence took less time than the #HomeBuilder application form.

    It was written, debated, amended and signed in less than a month.

    It’s 6 weeks today since #HomeBlunder was announced and still most Australians can’t even apply.

    Hurry Up #auspol https://twitter.com/JasonClareMP/status/1283591975258648577/photo/1

    Homeblunder!
    Now that’s more like it.
    If only Labor knew how to deliver a line effectively.

  23. C@tmomma
    I take your point re Morrisons desire to show Labor up and out Howard Howard but I don’t think his pride would let him be ousted at an election or back stabbed by his party.
    When the economy continues to tank and nothing Morrison is doing or proposing will prevent that, I think the writing will be on the wall. People
    will be wanting to try something new.
    He won’t be able to blame Labor because he had solved the mess Labor left behind.
    He can’t blame Labor for blocking him because they haven’t.
    The Libs might try to blame the virus but people won’t care they will just want to try anything else but what they can see has failed.
    His choices will be resign early, or get thrown out.

  25. WeWantPaul @ #1210 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 3:06 pm

    mundo @ #1183 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 12:04 pm

    WeWantPaul @ #1175 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 1:46 pm

    steve davis @ #1141 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 10:31 am

    Smoko cut $326 million from TAFES last year.F……g hypocrites.

    They are much much worse than that.

    Wait till Labor finds out.
    Scrooter will be toast!

    Toast I tells ya!!!

    Between the Murdoch Sewer, Costello TV, and SevenWest he’ll be fine.

    Between the Murdoch Sewer, Costello TV, SevenWest and the comatose Labor party he’ll be fine.

  27. Kidd says one person in New South Wales appears to have become infectious only 24 hours after contracting the virus.

    The advice from infectious disease experts at the AHPPC is that while this is unusual, it is not implausible. There is a wide distribution in the incubation period for Covid-19 and the time that people become and remain infectious. People usually develop symptoms within five to seven days of infection but may be infectious one or two days before the symptoms develop.

    He says it is “unlikely the strain has changed”, and rather it is a matter of how it is “expressed in individual people”.

  28. Sleeping Giants Oz
    @slpng_giants_oz

    Frankly I’m sick of Aussie larrikins, sick of wailing about threats to Western culture, sick of being told to have a go, sick of the racist propaganda of all lives matter & sick of being lectured to by a past failure like Tony Abbott still sucking on the taxpayer teat.

  29. Paul Karp
    @Paul_Karp

    News Corp logic: six people who had heterosexual sex in the last month got Covid. Although it was not how they got infected, sex is now LINKED TO CORONA and should not be performed under any circumstances.

  30. Has anyone else noticed how the BLM marches occurred in other cities with no serious consequences but only the Victorian BLM march is being focused on by News Corpse?

  32. Cat,

    Also there were many thousands at shopping centres not practising social distancing on the same weekend. But, because Gerry Harvey has wrap around adds on every News Ltd paper every weekend, our MSM never mention that fact.

  33. C@T

    It’s the “Get Dan” imperative. Sarah Henderson is showing her willingness to distort the truth for politics. Strange personality.

  36. Greensborough Growler @ #1233 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 3:59 pm

    Cat,

    Also there were many thousands at shopping centres not practising social distancing on the same weekend. But, because Gerry Harvey has wrap around adds on every News Ltd paper every weekend, our MSM never mention that fact.

    It’s an absolute perversion of what a newspaper should be there for. Or television. Still, a chilling effect has been sent through the ranks of journalists by the mass retrenchements of late. Such that, we are where we are.

  38. PeeBee @ #1139 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 12:21 pm

    Morrison says we have to get on top of the tracing challenge (WTTE) in Vic. There was a slight pause when he said this as he realised what he just implied:

    Covidsafe doesn’t work.

    As I have explained from day 1, it never did, never could and never will.

    Jaap Haartsen and Sven Mattisson invented Bluetooth together while working at the Swedish telecom Ericsson. To quote them:

    Mattisson pointed out that the “way many BLE devices are built, the RSSI (signal strength) value can be rather crude and not well calibrated.”
    Mattisson highlighted concerns with Bluetooth signals colliding with walls and being absorbed by your pants: “In addition to this RSSI uncertainty, you will have the path loss variation. If there is an obstacle, like a human body, between your BLE device and the detected one, there may be some 70dB of attenuation of the signal at 1m (e.g. in a crowd) but in free space this may well correspond to 10m (30ft).” Only a factor of 10!

    In other words, the data, if it is collected at all (we have no proof whatsoever that the app has ever managed to do so), is wildly variable gobbledygook, with no salient, definite, knowable features. The algorithm to ‘accurately’ interpret such data cannot, and never will exist. I invite any of you who have ever generated an algorithm to try to think how they might begin. No? The bull artists who have concocted the app know this. I believe they have taken money under false pretences. I am absolutely certain that they will never release their test procedures and outcomes, because I am also absolutely certain that they have no such valid test results.

  39. C@T
    Its funny because you will listen to documentaries on the early 1900s and hear terms of larrikins and bludgers and it sounds like the person is talking about likeable knockabout types and unemployed people when the person is really talking about gangs of thugs and pimps.

  40. Yabba @ #1238 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 2:09 pm

    PeeBee @ #1139 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 12:21 pm

    Morrison says we have to get on top of the tracing challenge (WTTE) in Vic. There was a slight pause when he said this as he realised what he just implied:

    Covidsafe doesn’t work.

    As I have explained from day 1, it never did, never could and never will.

    Jaap Haartsen and Sven Mattisson invented Bluetooth together while working at the Swedish telecom Ericsson. To quote them:

    Mattisson pointed out that the “way many BLE devices are built, the RSSI (signal strength) value can be rather crude and not well calibrated.”
    Mattisson highlighted concerns with Bluetooth signals colliding with walls and being absorbed by your pants: “In addition to this RSSI uncertainty, you will have the path loss variation. If there is an obstacle, like a human body, between your BLE device and the detected one, there may be some 70dB of attenuation of the signal at 1m (e.g. in a crowd) but in free space this may well correspond to 10m (30ft).” Only a factor of 10!

    In other words, the data, if it is collected at all (we have no proof whatsoever that the app has ever managed to do so), is wildly variable gobbledygook, with no salient, definite, knowable features. The algorithm to ‘accurately’ interpret such data cannot, and never will exist. I invite any of you who have ever generated an algorithm to try to think how they might begin. No? The bull artists who have concocted the app know this. I believe they have taken money under false pretences. I am absolutely certain that they will never release their test procedures and outcomes, because I am also absolutely certain that they have no such valid test results.

    The impartial, ruthless, hold all power to account, media is over this like a rash.

  43. In a nutshell. LOL!

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Mike Carlton
    @MikeCarlton01
    That would be the un-elected Senator Henderson who – like so many Victorian Liberals – is a blustering fool and a waste of space.
    Quote Tweet

    QandA
    @QandA
    · 4h
    .@SenSHenderson has linked Melbourne’s COVID spike and the recent Black Live Matter protests, saying “Daniel Andrews blames law abiding Victorian families for doing the wrong thing rather than 10,000 illegal protesters?” Sarah joins Monday’s #QandA panel. https://ab.co/32ntek4
    Show this thread

  44. C@tmomma @ #1236 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 4:08 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1233 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 3:59 pm

    Cat,

    Also there were many thousands at shopping centres not practising social distancing on the same weekend. But, because Gerry Harvey has wrap around adds on every News Ltd paper every weekend, our MSM never mention that fact.

    It’s an absolute perversion of what a newspaper should be there for. Or television. Still, a chilling effect has been sent through the ranks of journalists by the mass retrenchements of late. Such that, we are where we are.

    The local K-Mart had to close for a day or so this week because of a staff member testing positive.

  45. Lizzie
    Words change which is why i laugh when people complain someone isn’t speaking English because the next question is which version.

  47. Mexicanbeemer

    In spite of the fact that I am a language pedant, I do appreciate that someone with only a moderate grasp of English can make themselves universally understood.

  50. That gay rights result shows why Labor has to learn to manage the politics. It has to learn how to be strong on issues that have majority voter support. Even as it causes problems with Labor marginal seats.

    Climate change is the same boat for Labor.
    There is majority support by voters. Yet due to appealing to coal industry voters in marginals Labor keeps losing the climate energy wars.

    Like gay rights Labor has to be strong on the bottom line.
    Labor can do this by arguing. If it’s not environmentally sustainable it’s not commercially viable.

    In fact it’s reckless to aid and abet the waste of investor money in financing such existential threats to the human species as the science has made clear.

    Just like with the virus you cannot have good economic management by denying science.

    Edit: votes were probably gained for Labor in Eden Monaro by the LNP attacking Labor for standing up for gay rights.

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