Essential Research: leadership ratings and the return of coronavirus

The Melbourne coronavirus takes its toll on the standing of the Andrews government, and a small amount of gloss comes off Scott Morrison’s still-impressive ratings.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research, which a fortnight ago published its first coronavirus-free poll since January, has naturally revived its interest in the subject. The poll finds 36% of respondents rating themselves very concerned about the virus, up from 25% when the question was last asked three weeks ago. The state breakdowns have it at 46% in Victoria, though New South Wales isn’t far behind at 42%.

The poll also finds approval of the federal government’s handling of the matter down from 70% when the question as last asked three weeks ago to 64%, while small sample breakdowns concerning state governments’ responses have the Victorian government’s favourable rating slumping from 65% to 49%. Below are charts recording the progress of these results since the pollster first asked the question in relation to the federal government in March and the state governments in April, although at this stage I only have “good” and not “poor” ratings from the latest poll. Keep in mind that the sample sizes for the Victorian results is only around 275.

The poll also features the pollster’s monthly (actually a bit longer than that on occasion, the previous result having been from May 28-31) leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison down two on approval to 63% and up one on disapproval to 27%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 44% and down two to 28%. The latter numbers are rather a lot different from Newspoll, whose poll a fortnight ago had Albanese on 42% for both approval and disapproval. Morrison holds a lead of 50-27 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 53-23 last time.

The BludgerTrack aggregates have been updated with these numbers. Essential Research should publish the full report for the poll later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The federal government’s poor rating on COVID-19 is up four to 16%, while the Victorian government’s has doubled to 26%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,482 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings and the return of coronavirus”

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  1. Jaeger, Rakali

    Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

    University students at UQ raise concerns about online exam monitoring service ProctorU
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-16/uq-privacy-issues-concerns-student-exams/12454964

    As someone who is intimately aware of how this system works, these claims that this is a major issue are overblown.

    FWIW, the reports I’ve seen indicate that the universities were receiving almost as many queries from students asking how the veracity of assessments would be maintained with remote assessment as they did concerns about privacy when using remote exam invigilation services. These students were concerned that the quality of the degrees issued by the universities may be degraded if assessment items were not authentic.

  2. Victoria

    Zwaktyld

    Victoria had a few cases not that long ago.

    Indeed and listening to him I kept thinking of the line that really nailed it when Ardern was announcing the big lock down. Hazzard would do well to read it before he carries on playing down NSW numbers compared to Victoria, as he did earlier today.

    Ardern: “We currently have 102 cases, but so did Italy once.”

  3. Poroti

    Looking at today.

    NSW only have 10 cases today out of 22,000 tests.

    They are holding the line so far.

    They gotta hope there is not an undetected superspreader out there

  4. a r

    You could be right about the political targeting – diminish the veracity of the Biden camp, and camp followers messaging. But high risk, as the platform is one of Dotard’s main channels.

    If so, it shows the desperation of the Dotards. It would be more impactful in the last month or weeks before the vote, rather than this far away.

  5. sprocket_ @ #1049 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 10:26 am

    Can’t believe this, as its on Twitter BUT it looks like an internal privileged employee account has been compromised. Even a billion dollar company is at risk of this..

    Perhaps. Although billion dollar companies would usually have policies requiring all internal/priviliged accounts to use MFA and strong, frequently rotated passwords. And actual application logic to ensure these policies cannot be bypassed.

    That doesn’t make the account impossible to compromise, but does make it a lot harder to do remotely. Unless the account holder helps either directly or indirectly by doing something like storing/sharing their MFA seed somewhere insecure.

    This gives direct admin access to accounts and allows individuals to chance e-mail & password.

    Yep, which is why the accounts that were and weren’t accessed is telling. They could have gone for any account on the platform, but of the high-profile political accounts they accessed only left-wing politicians were targeted.

  6. lizzie @ #1019 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 10:20 am

    ABC yesterday had a piece on how retail is changing to accommodate new conditions which do not include large shopping malls and swinging towards online services and home delivery. I can’t see how “retail training” for jobs which no longer exist in the same form will be of any use whatsoever.

    Those who do the training will be the engineers on board the deluxe train. 🚂 While those who receive the training will be left singing “The Man Who Never Returned”. What a depressing outlook.

    The 398 applying for 2 positions reveals the true state of unemployment. A B Double load of heartaches.

  7. lizziesays:
    Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 10:20 am
    ABC yesterday had a piece on how retail is changing to accommodate new conditions which do not include large shopping malls and swinging towards online services and home delivery. I can’t see how “retail training” for jobs which no longer exist in the same form will be of any use whatsoever.

    ___________________________________
    That’s a lot of cash to teach people how to ride bicycles…

  8. The British Medical Journal has just announced that Big Bird is indeed yellow and the rumour about bears in woods is also true..
    .

    Lockdowns work – study shows restrictions reduce new cases

    Imposing lockdown restrictions earlier has been linked to greater reductions in new coronavirus cases, a study has found.

    The research, published in the BMJ on Wednesday, also found that physical distancing measures, such as closing schools, workplaces and public transport, and restricting mass gatherings, were associated with a “meaningful reduction” in new Covid-19 cases.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-face-masks-shops-local-lockdown-blackburn/

  9. In further evidence that the pandemic is identifying, and hopefully rooting out disgraced business models – like zero hours contracts – more pain for Rupert…

    “It’s an emotional challenge, given 89-year-old Murdoch’s ties to his native country where he turned a single newspaper inherited from his father in 1952 into one of the world’s most influential companies.

    The Australian arm faces a double incursion: the broadcast business, Foxtel, is fast losing subscribers to streaming giants like Netflix Inc (NFLX.O), while the print arm, like its rivals, is ceding advertisers to Facebook (FB.O) and Google (GOOGL.O).

    “You couldn’t engineer more pressure, I don’t think, than what Foxtel is under at the moment,” said a person with direct knowledge of the company’s Australian strategy, speaking on condition of anonymity.

    “The business should have moved much more aggressively into the streaming space than it did.”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-news-corp-australia-focus/rupert-murdochs-big-investment-headache-australia-idUSKCN24G36B

  10. Darn! I almost got a photo of an Oozlum that looked a little like Scotty from Marketing sitting on the clothesline but it did its famous disappearing act just as I hit the shutter button.

  11. shellbell

    I’m not sure what the current situation is but recently a cap on numbers per week arriving was applied, about 500.

  12. ‘Generational tragedy’: Art of the Deal coauthor says Trump is continuing a cycle of sociopathy

    On Wednesday’s edition of MSNBC’s “The Beat,” “Art of the Deal” co-author Tony Schwartz discussed what Mary Trump’s new tell-all book signifies about the inter-generational psychological problems within President Donald Trump’s family.

    “Mary saying that Trump is incapable of doing the job based on what she saw her entire adult life,” said anchor Ayman Mohyeldin. “How does that compare to what you saw working with him?”

    “I feel great kinship with Mary Trump,” said Schwartz. “Having observed Trump for nearly my adult life … he is indeed a psychopath or a sociopath. They’re interchangeable. It is fascinating to see her confirm and deepen many of the observations I’ve made over the last four years, and you know, most recently, when I wrote about him as the psychopath in chief on Medium. This is a man, she says, without empathy and without conscience. And that makes him stunningly dangerous.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/07/generational-tragedy-art-of-the-deal-coauthor-says-trump-is-continuing-a-cycle-of-sociopathy/

  13. Brad Parscale out as Trump campaign manager

    As President Donald Trump’s polling numbers continue to fall, Brad Parscale has been removed as campaign manager.

    Parscale, who has scored millions from the Trump campaign for his several companies over the past four years was promoted to the position, but after low rally turnout in Tulsa, Oklahoma, disastrous PR and sagging polls, Parscale is being replaced by Bill Stepien.

    Trump made the announcement on Facebook – “This one should be a lot easier as our poll numbers are rising fast, the economy is getting better, vaccines and therapeutics will soon be on the way, and Americans want safe streets and communities!”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/07/brad-parscale-out-as-trump-campaign-manager/

  14. This is a man, she says, without empathy and without conscience. And that makes him stunningly dangerous.

    We have our own version here. Truth means nothing and empathy is a stranger.

  15. sprocket_says:
    Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 10:48 am
    In further evidence that the pandemic is identifying, and hopefully rooting out disgraced business models – like zero hours contracts – more pain for Rupert…
    ____________________
    I’m not sure there is anything Murdoch can do about it either. They cant sell their worthless Australian assets, unless they find a silly Private Equity buyer, which is always possible. The family seem committed to just keep writing down the value. They are lucky that Lachlan bought the REA group, that has made billions of value.

  16. Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson

    #Florida has confirmed >77,000 #coronavirus cases in just 7 days. 54 hospitals have no ICU beds; 40 have <10% capacity.

    The virus is spreading uncontrollably, new #COVID19 cases are exploding, and the death toll soon will soar.

  17. C@t

    The bowers are just to entice for mating. The females do the actual work and build nests and feed the young. Could be OK!

  18. Although billion dollar companies would usually have policies requiring all internal/priviliged accounts to use MFA and strong, frequently rotated passwords. And actual application logic to ensure these policies cannot be bypassed.

    I know I’m a noob but couldn’t someone just write software that would reverse engineer strong passwords (and, yes, I know what they look like), via a de-encryption program?

  19. Victoria, ‘I didnt see GBerejiklian presser, but if this was the case, it basically sending message that it is not NSW health making the decisions in this case, but the hotel association.’

    A few days ago, Gladys even admitted getting health advice from the AHA in relation to how many people they can pack into a pub/pokey venue safely.

  20. lizzie @ #1044 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 8:20 am

    ABC yesterday had a piece on how retail is changing to accommodate new conditions which do not include large shopping malls and swinging towards online services and home delivery. I can’t see how “retail training” for jobs which no longer exist in the same form will be of any use whatsoever.

    Nonsense. It’s of great benefit to the maaates who run these “courses”.

  21. PeeBeesays:
    Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 11:08 am
    317 new cases in Vic!
    ________________
    Doesn’t matter. The more cases in Victoria the better job Dan Andrews has or is doing. There’s a photo of him at a desk. What more can you say?

  22. The bowers are just to entice for mating. The females do the actual work and build nests and feed the young. Could be OK!

    Except dancing in currently banned in NSW. 😉

  23. lizzie @ #1079 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 11:05 am

    C@t

    The bowers are just to entice for mating. The females do the actual work and build nests and feed the young. Could be OK!

    I’m hoping so. They seem to like the way a tree outside my window has gone up over the verandah and onto the roof. I’ve seen the male hop in and out of there a lot recently and maybe the female is already up there?

    It may also have to do with the steady supply of bread, densely packed with seeds and grains that I throw out for them every morning. 🙂

    We also have an ordinary Bower Bird and a Cat Bird, as well as the usual native suspects. 🙂

  24. nath @ #1084 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 11:10 am

    PeeBeesays:
    Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 11:08 am
    317 new cases in Vic!
    ________________
    Doesn’t matter. The more cases in Victoria the better job Dan Andrews has or is doing. There’s a photo of him at a desk. What more can you say?

    You sound like a member of the Victorian Liberal Party. 😐

  25. Victoria has recorded 317 new cases of coronavirus in 24 hours.

    This is the highest daily total since 10 July, when Victoria recorded 288 cases in one day, and sets a new record for the highest daily total recorded by Victoria territory since the pandemic began.

    The Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, says two men in their 80s died of the coronavirus overnight. It brings the total number of deaths in the state to 29.

    Currently, there are 109 patients in hospital, 29 in intensive care.

  26. I know I’m a noob but couldn’t someone just write software that would reverse engineer strong passwords (and, yes, I know what they look like), via a de-encryption program?

    Of course, but if the passwords are are truly strong, it might time some time…

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2017/02/23/google-sha-1-hack-why-it-matters/#77a033fe4c8c

    To be clear, anyone wanting to carry out the attack for real would require astonishing computing power. The researchers had to use the equivalent of 6,500 years of CPU computation and 110 years of GPU computation to complete the two phases of the technique, and an astonishing 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 SHA-1 computations.

  27. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 11:16 am
    PeeBee @ #1091 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 11:14 am

    C@t save your breath, he is trolling.

    Yes, nary a cross word about the ‘Open Up Victoria!’ brigade. Or the recalcitrant mouth-breather brigade.
    _______________________
    The open up brigade are even bigger idiots but they weren’t in charge of hotel quarantine. If that had been conducted with the seriousness it deserved we might have been able to ‘open up’ by now.

  28. When NZ locked down their CMO said it would be 10 days before they would see the impact on numbers and he was pretty much on the money. If The Plague in Victoria follows that playbook numbers should start heading south in 2-3 days.

  29. To be clear, anyone wanting to carry out the attack for real would require astonishing computing power.

    Which certain nation states are prepared to devote to this cause. And I’m thinking about Russia here, rather than China, as it was LW politicians in America that were targeted.

    All in the name of World Domination Enterprises Inc. 🙂

  30. nath @ #1097 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 11:18 am

    C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 11:16 am
    PeeBee @ #1091 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 11:14 am

    C@t save your breath, he is trolling.

    Yes, nary a cross word about the ‘Open Up Victoria!’ brigade. Or the recalcitrant mouth-breather brigade.
    _______________________
    The open up brigade are even bigger idiots but they weren’t in charge of hotel quarantine. If that had been conducted with the seriousness it deserved we might have been able to ‘open up’ by now.

    You could do your bit by patrolling KFC stores for recalcitrant mouth breathers. 🙂

  31. C@t,

    It’s usually easier to find a compromised employee.

    Or just goad the rest of the world to generate a rainbow table for you. Oh, hello cryptocurrencies!

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