Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19

Scott Morrison settles in at a lofty approval rating perch, as hordes of candidates descend upon Eden-Monaro.

Firstly, as per the above post, don’t forget to give generously to the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive. Now to an assembly of recent events in the worlds of polling and Eden-Monaro:

• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s approval up a point to a new high of 65% and disapproval down a point to a new low of 26%, reflecting continuous improvement since a nadir of 39% and 52% in February. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53-23, compared with 50-25 last time. Albanese stands at 43% approval, up one, and 30% disapproval, up three. These numbers have been used to update the BludgerTrack trends, which can be see on the sidebar or in detail here, showing Morrison now at a plateau after his recent ascent.

• The Essential poll also finds 41% saying Jobkeeper reporting bungle reflected negatively on the federal government, compared with 43% saying it did not. “A third” wanted Jobkeeper broadened in response, along with another 20% who wanted the eligibility criteria broadened, while 45% preferred that it go to reducing the debt. The poll also featured a semi-regular suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which have become more favourable for both leaders across the board since January. This is especially so in the case of Morrison, and still more especially in the case of his ratings for good in a crisis (66%), leadership capability (70%) and trustworthiness (66%), which have yo-yoed between the bushfire and coronavirus crises. These ratings will be available to review in detail when the full report is published later day. UPDATE: Full report here.

• A poll by the Australia Institute finds 77% support across the country for state border closures. Labor and Greens supporters are somewhat more in favour, One Nation supporters somewhat less so. The poll was conducted online on May 27 and 28 from a sample of 1005. Small-sample state breakdowns suggested Western Australians were particularly supportive, at 88%, a finding consistent with …

• The West Australian ($) had a poll yesterday that recorded a remarkable 89% in favour of keeping the state’s borders closed, with which the state government is persisting in the face of criticism from the federal government and New South Wales government. Presumably the poll had more to it than that, but that’s all there is in the report. The poll was conducted online by Painted Dog Research on Thursday from a sample of 1000.

Eden-Monaro latest:

• With a week still to go before the closure of nominations, the ABC by-election guide records ten candidates and counting, including Cathy Griff for the Greens, Matthew Stadtmiller for Shooters Fishers and Farmers, sundry candidates for the Liberal Democrats, Science Party, Christian Democrats and Sustainable Australia, and two independents. The Nationals have also opened nominations, although they have not traditionally polled strongly in the seat. The deluge has prompted Antony Green to argue that all candidates should be required to produce 100 locally enrolled nominators. This burden is currently imposed only on independents, exemption being a perk of party registration.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced its service plan for the by-election, detailing special measures arising from COVID-19. A familiar set of social distancing rules will apply at polling booths, and mobile polling will not be conducted as normal at hospitals and aged care facilities, where “support teams” will instead assist with postal and telephone voting (the latter still only available to the visually impaired).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19”

Comments Page 17 of 41
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  3. @AP tweets

    Curfew has begun in Washington, D.C., while polls remain open for another hour. Voters there and in nine states are casting ballots as protests flare across U.S. http://apne.ws/itNUwYk

    ___________________________________
    @andrew_lund tweets

    Greens MPs calling for the Andrews government to invest in more pop up bike lanes, to help allow for a socially distant return to work. “They should be all across greater Melbourne” @9NewsMelb #springst https://twitter.com/andrew_lund/status/1267954903609049088/photo/1

  4. guytaur @ #798 Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020 – 8:55 am

    Mundo

    While in Opposition the Labor President cam be used to shift the Overton window. I don’t agree with Wayne Swan on some things. However there is no denying he got awarded World’s Best Treasurer.

    He should be appearing on QandA The Project the 7:30 Report and the rest to change the conversation over economics in this country. He is a good Keynesian advocate. A person who put the hard yards in and has the record to show for it.

    Mundo is a fan of Swannie, particularly post-parliament Swannie and was commenting on the appearance of the poster advocating going back to the drawing board.
    No bad thing in itself.
    Certainly couldn’t do any harm.

    Swan has become a much more forceful and confident communicator since quitting. Mundo would like to hear him make jokes at Hokey Joe’s expense to even up the ledger.

  6. B R-S’ name now being mentioned in relation to a possible 7 incidents of unlawful killing.

    These mentions have the status of scuttlebutt and B R-S has not been formally charged, let alone tried and let alone convicted.

    One wonders whether the ADF officers who did the due diligence on his VC are feeling a bit uncomfortable?

    Prediction. Watch Scotty from Marketing deploy a VC for Sheehan when a unicorn is required.

  7. guytaur @ #798 Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020 – 8:55 am

    Mundo

    While in Opposition the Labor President cam be used to shift the Overton window. I don’t agree with Wayne Swan on some things. However there is no denying he got awarded World’s Best Treasurer.

    He should be appearing on QandA The Project the 7:30 Report and the rest to change the conversation over economics in this country. He is a good Keynesian advocate. A person who put the hard yards in and has the record to show for it.

    ‘While in Opposition’
    Since we are talking about a long while, there’s certainly plenty of time for Wayne to work his magic.

  9. Looking at the night sky, it seems so unchanging and eternal.

    It’s a window into the past and what we see can be very different to the reality of what exists there now.

    Occasionally we get a fleeting glimpse into a sudden change that occurred like this one only 50 million years ago.

    Supernova 1994D: The image that captures the beauty of a powerful moment in time

    ?v=3

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-06-03/supernova-1994d-captures-powerful-moment-in-the-universe/11965976

  11. Val Demings is one of many in the running for VP. She hails from Florida.
    I havent seen much of her until now.
    Fact she is from Florida, and what I have seen of her so far, she could well be on top of Bidens list.

  12. Barney

    Looking up at the stars is supposed to make us understand that we are just an insignificant part of an immense universe. Maybe someone should explain that to Trump.

  13. BK
    Given their general worshiping of “the military” and the behaviour of the police it would probably be quite appealing to have ‘the military’ instead of the police.

  15. mundo:

    [‘Tory Fran breathlessly telling us about the new ‘feather’ in Scrooter’s cap after being invited by Dotard no less to the G7….Fran could barely contain her excitement.’]

    I have to agree with you. What she omitted in her commentary is what will a Democratic administration think of Trump’s and Morrison’s special relationship – Trump on the phone to him at the hight of the troubles, just before cowardly entering the WH bunker.

  16. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    Sally Whyte says that there are calls for a royal commission into the Robodebt fiasco.

    This is prolly the reference.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6778506/i-can-see-no-other-way-forward-call-for-robodebt-royal-commission/?cs=14329

    For a really big news event chez KayJay.

    Great Grandson Arthur Percy has a one day old brother Oscar Patrick. Arthur is reported to be “very excited”.

    Of course Arthur Percy (aged 4 and a bit) is excited about just about everything. 🧸🪀😍

  17. Wisely? 😆

    Paula Truefeldt
    @truepz
    · 14m
    @abcmelbourne @LaTrioli Virginia just interviewed US ex democrat senator Donald Betts Jnr. who now lives here in OZ , he suggested @realDonaldTrump contact our very own PM Scott Morrison for guidance on how to lead a nation wisely, nice rap for the PM !!

  18. lizzie @ #809 Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020 – 7:11 am

    Barney

    Looking up at the stars is supposed to make us understand that we are just an insignificant part of an immense universe. Maybe someone should explain that to Trump.

    Don’t be silly lizzie.

    Everyone knows that everything in the Universe revolves around Trump! 🙂

  20. Trudeau is a class act compared with Morrison.

    Trudeau is asked to comment on Trump in this video clip.

    Trudeau was asked about Trump. See how long it took him to respond

    A reporter asked Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about smoke canisters and pepper balls being used on US protesters so that President Trump could have a photo-op in front of a burned church near the White House.

    https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/06/02/justin-trudeau-trump-response-silence-vpx.ctv

  22. I wonder how many will turn up to Trump’s G7.

    At the moment it’s looking like a G((7-2) +3).

    Germany and France are unlikely starters and it seems Russia will be vetoed.

    And that’s just at this time!

  23. phoenixRED @ #786 Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020 – 8:36 am

    Tom Nichols @RadioFreeTom

    Trump wants to give this “go” order so badly he can taste it.

    James LaPorta @JimLaPorta

    Also: 700 members of the 82nd are at Joint Base Andrews and Fort Belvoir. 1,400 more soldiers are ready to be mobilized within an hour. Soldiers are armed and have riot gear. They also were issued bayonets—standard issue but some feel could be inflammatory

    America’s gung ho Christian Soldiers need only apply.

  24. Barrie Cassidy
    @barriecassidy
    ·
    11h
    And no matter how revolting this American president is – we’ll accept his invitation – as cynically motivated as it is – and the media will embrace it – as a coup for Australia. History will tell a different story. Vietnam. Iraq. We’ll never learn.

    Craig Emerson
    @DrCraigEmerson
    · 13h
    The biggest supporter of @realDonaldTrump in Australia is @newscorpaus America is crumbling. Not once has Trump proposed an idea to rectify inequality & mistreatment of African Americans. He’d rather bring in the military than solve the problem. Does NewsCorp support repression?

  25. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #822 Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020 – 9:22 am

    I wonder how many will turn up to Trump’s G7.

    At the moment it’s looking like a G((7-2) +3).

    Germany and France are unlikely starters and it seems Russia will be vetoed.

    And that’s just at this time!

    The American Appeasement Summit.
    Featuring Scott Morrison as the Chief Cheer Leader.

  27. The American Appeasement Summit.
    Featuring Scott Morrison as the Chief Cheer Leader.

    More simp prop at a facist rally

  28. Poll is bad news for Trump:

    Most Americans sympathise with protests, oppose Trump’s response: poll

    majority of Americans sympathize with nationwide protests over the death of an unarmed black man in police custody and disapprove of President Donald Trump’s response to the unrest, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday.

    The survey conducted on Monday and Tuesday found 64 per cent of American adults were “sympathetic to people who are out protesting right now,” while 27 per cent said they were not and 9 per cent were unsure.

    More than 55 per cent of Americans said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of the protests, including 40 per cent who “strongly” disapproved, while just one-third said they approved – lower than his overall job approval of 39 per cent, the poll showed.

    A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Biden’s lead over Trump among registered voters expanded to 10 percentage points – the biggest margin since the former vice president became his party’s presumptive nominee in early April.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/most-americans-sympathise-with-protests-oppose-trump-s-response-poll-20200603-p54yz1.html

  29. Barney in Tanjung Bunga

    I wonder how many will turn up to Trump’s G7.

    At the moment it’s looking like a G((7-2) +3).

    Give it a couple of days. Then we move to a G7 (x + 5)(x + 4) = x2 + 5x + 4x + 20 = x2 + 9x + 20

  30. Danielle Moodie
    @DeeTwoCents

    Breaking News: the state of Minnesota has just filed a Civil Rights law suit against the Minneapolis Police Department.

    Some context. I listened to a podcast the other day by Obama’s political advisers where they likened the Poice Unions, not to traditional unions per se but to lobby groups for Police. The Police have become virtually autonomous bodies answerable to no one, with their ‘Union’ professionally, loudly and vociferously defending them at every turn. And if you want to know how it is that they are so lawless, when they are supposed to be the ones enforcing the law, you need look no further than that.

  31. From the quill of Miranda Devine

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/rendezview/george-floyd-protests-what-riots-mean-for-trumps-reelection/news-story/7ad29f98f24e39ce3987b3faeb676bbb

    Five months before an election, this is the insurrection of the incendiary left, who have marched unopposed through the institutions for half a century, to teach a generation of Americans that their country – and especially their police – are irredeemably racist.

    After Americans voted in the first black president in 2004 you would think that racial division might have been put to rest. But it only grew worse under Obama, who fanned the flames of black grievance at every opportunity.

    Youse can forget about looking for beauty in the stars – the real black holes were created by the rabid left and Mr. Obama.

    Cuomo and de Blasio, whose daughter was arrested with protesters on the weekend, have no interest in law and order. They cynically used the pandemic to release more than 1500 prisoners from jail, in an acceleration of their criminal justice “reforms” which already had sent NYC crime rates spiralling.

    How many of those criminals joined the looting?

    The riots were obviously planned months ago and the prisoners were released – not to save their lives – but to ensure violence, murder, mayhem and looting. 😮

    Ms. Devine next article is reported to be an exposition on finding one’s own arse while equipped with tongs, high powered flashlight, a mirror and Gummint instruction manual.

  33. citizen @ #817 Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020 – 7:19 am

    Trudeau is a class act compared with Morrison.

    Trudeau is asked to comment on Trump in this video clip.

    Trudeau was asked about Trump. See how long it took him to respond

    A reporter asked Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about smoke canisters and pepper balls being used on US protesters so that President Trump could have a photo-op in front of a burned church near the White House.

    https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/06/02/justin-trudeau-trump-response-silence-vpx.ctv

    Very classy response.

    Amazing what happens when you actually stop and engage your brain.

  35. All the ranting and raving by the right wing and supporters of trump and his minions, are not going to work.
    If Trump manages to get past the national convention this year, he will lose bigly in November.

  37. So they can happily show each other their pumped penises…er..I meant to say egos.

    Peter Mitchel reports that Trump has invited Scott Morrison to attend an expanded/truncated G7 summit at Camp David in September.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/donald-trump-invites-scott-morrison-to-attend-g7-summit-at-camp-david-20200603-p54ywv.html
    And Phil Coorey tells us Morrison has accepted the invitation.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-accepts-trump-s-g7-invitation-amid-russia-controversy-20200602-p54ys0

    They aren’t private schools so it’s tough luck.

    The Australian says that Dan Tehan will stare down universities pleading for urgent government support­, as vice-chancellors warn that Australia’s research capacity will be devastated if they don’t ­secure additional funding.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/universities-on-the-brink-of-ground-zero/news-story/b40264f77c81b436591a352555ca9330

  38. Kronomex @ #834 Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020 – 7:43 am

    So they can happily show each other their pumped penises…er..I meant to say egos.

    Peter Mitchel reports that Trump has invited Scott Morrison to attend an expanded/truncated G7 summit at Camp David in September.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/donald-trump-invites-scott-morrison-to-attend-g7-summit-at-camp-david-20200603-p54ywv.html
    And Phil Coorey tells us Morrison has accepted the invitation.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-accepts-trump-s-g7-invitation-amid-russia-controversy-20200602-p54ys0

    The 14 day isolation when he comes back will be good for us. 🙂

  39. The 14 day isolation when he comes back will be good for us.

    He will be within the Stokes ‘law doesn’t apply to us’ exemption’ as a ‘wholly owned pet’.

  43. “I wonder how many will turn up to Trump’s G7.

    At the moment it’s looking like a G((7-2) +3).

    Germany and France are unlikely starters and it seems Russia will be vetoed.

    And that’s just at this time!“

    And 65% of Australians cheer the father of our nation as he ties our good ship to the Titanic … after the iceberg.

    Morrison is committing the worst foreign policy bludgers in this country’s history. This will not end well.

  46. Steve777 @ #802 Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020 – 9:01 am

    Trump wants a voice in the G7 that will unconditionally support the policies and positions of his administration. So he’s had to skip down to the 14th largest world economy, passing over Brazil, Russia, South Korea and Spain.

    He didn’t pass over Russia. They got a special invite too. Other nations vetoed it; quite rightly, too. They should veto Australia’s participation as well.

  48. The Age
    @theage
    ·
    1m
    A major packaging company has stood down more than 100 workers from its Port Melbourne facility after a worker returned a positive COVID-19 test on Sunday. Amcor Flexibles says it has completely locked down the site.

  49. A polar opposite to the impression I have got from a number of comments and articles posted is it turns out your likelihood of dying in custody is higher if you were a non Aboriginal. Something that has been the case for quite some time. The disparity of incarceration rates is of course another matter entirely.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

    Figure 2 Prison custody deaths, 1981–82 to 2012–13 (rate per 100 prisoners)a

    https://aic.gov.au/publications/mr/mr26/deaths-prison-custody

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