Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19

Scott Morrison settles in at a lofty approval rating perch, as hordes of candidates descend upon Eden-Monaro.

Firstly, as per the above post, don’t forget to give generously to the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive. Now to an assembly of recent events in the worlds of polling and Eden-Monaro:

• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s approval up a point to a new high of 65% and disapproval down a point to a new low of 26%, reflecting continuous improvement since a nadir of 39% and 52% in February. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53-23, compared with 50-25 last time. Albanese stands at 43% approval, up one, and 30% disapproval, up three. These numbers have been used to update the BludgerTrack trends, which can be see on the sidebar or in detail here, showing Morrison now at a plateau after his recent ascent.

• The Essential poll also finds 41% saying Jobkeeper reporting bungle reflected negatively on the federal government, compared with 43% saying it did not. “A third” wanted Jobkeeper broadened in response, along with another 20% who wanted the eligibility criteria broadened, while 45% preferred that it go to reducing the debt. The poll also featured a semi-regular suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which have become more favourable for both leaders across the board since January. This is especially so in the case of Morrison, and still more especially in the case of his ratings for good in a crisis (66%), leadership capability (70%) and trustworthiness (66%), which have yo-yoed between the bushfire and coronavirus crises. These ratings will be available to review in detail when the full report is published later day. UPDATE: Full report here.

• A poll by the Australia Institute finds 77% support across the country for state border closures. Labor and Greens supporters are somewhat more in favour, One Nation supporters somewhat less so. The poll was conducted online on May 27 and 28 from a sample of 1005. Small-sample state breakdowns suggested Western Australians were particularly supportive, at 88%, a finding consistent with …

• The West Australian ($) had a poll yesterday that recorded a remarkable 89% in favour of keeping the state’s borders closed, with which the state government is persisting in the face of criticism from the federal government and New South Wales government. Presumably the poll had more to it than that, but that’s all there is in the report. The poll was conducted online by Painted Dog Research on Thursday from a sample of 1000.

Eden-Monaro latest:

• With a week still to go before the closure of nominations, the ABC by-election guide records ten candidates and counting, including Cathy Griff for the Greens, Matthew Stadtmiller for Shooters Fishers and Farmers, sundry candidates for the Liberal Democrats, Science Party, Christian Democrats and Sustainable Australia, and two independents. The Nationals have also opened nominations, although they have not traditionally polled strongly in the seat. The deluge has prompted Antony Green to argue that all candidates should be required to produce 100 locally enrolled nominators. This burden is currently imposed only on independents, exemption being a perk of party registration.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced its service plan for the by-election, detailing special measures arising from COVID-19. A familiar set of social distancing rules will apply at polling booths, and mobile polling will not be conducted as normal at hospitals and aged care facilities, where “support teams” will instead assist with postal and telephone voting (the latter still only available to the visually impaired).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19”

Comments Page 16 of 41
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  1. Great writing, from the Style and Perspectives section of The Washington Post, of all places!

    After unleashing the National Guard and law enforcement agents on peaceful protesters outside the White House, Donald Trump traversed Lafayette Square to the north, where he stood for a few minutes holding a Bible outside the shuttered parish house of St. John’s Church, which was damaged by a brief fire in the basement during protests on Sunday. He held the book awkwardly in both hands, looking at it briefly as if to double check that he had brought the right one, and then held it aloft, like the raised arm of a victorious boxer. Behind him, a church sign read: “All are welcome.”

    The walk, the display of the Bible and the return to the White House through a phalanx of armored law enforcement personnel were quickly edited into a surreal video with a soaring soundtrack. But nothing quite worked, and though its producers clearly aspired to the inspirational bombast of Steven Spielberg or perhaps Leni Riefenstahl, they could barely muster a ­second-rate pastiche of Charlie Chaplin.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/trump-wanted-a-photo-op-he-delivered-the-most-ominous-message-of-his-presidency/2020/06/02/921199da-a4e8-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html

  2. Rick Wilson: ‘Lil Dictator’ Trump’s church and tear-gas photo-op was a ‘pathetic’ failure

    In his typically scathing style, conservative campaign consultant Rick Wilson wrote that a “humiliated” Donald Trump tried to make all the mockery of his hiding in a bunker go away with his photo-op church visit late Monday and it flopped in a big way making him look “pathetic.”

    “The weekend did not go well for Donald Trump, and he emerged into a sunny first day of June humiliated by his weakness, cowardice, and inability to face up to any crisis more complex than ‘Why is my Filet-O-Fish cold?’” Wilson wrote. “The man sporting the world’s most delicate ego knows the worst thing for any wannabe Maximum Leader is mockery, and America’s derision was pouring down after a weekend taunt blew up into the hashtag #BunkerBitch and trended worldwide. Like many things that set off cascades of Trump’s bad decisions—porn starlets, breakfast buffets, shady real estate deals, and Steve Bannon—he reacted as badly as one might expect to the derision, with the tantrums we saw Monday. “

    Now Trump has left his bunker to take a picture after a small army roughed up and drove off anyone with a voice to speak against him. Not exactly a profile in courage.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/06/rick-wilson-lil-dictator-trumps-church-and-tear-gas-photo-op-was-a-pathetic-failure/

  3. 16 hours ago

    @joshgnosis tweets

    It is a little frustrating that some journalists in Australia can only attempt to spark outrage about police actions in the US riots when it directly affects other Australian journalists… prior to that it was “violent protests” and “violent riots”.

  4. That’s an excellent article by Ross Gittins.

    Its amazing isn’t it in an environment where interest rates are all but zero, that these guys are still shit scared of debt. You could borrow money to build high speed rail, several new metros and a bunch of other infrastructure as well – all in one hit – and the interest bill would be of no consequence.

  5. There are already killer memes going around about Trump’s trip to the church. One said, ‘I wonder if that hand he is holding the Bible with is also the one he grabs pussies with?’ 😯

  6. Cud Chewer @ #754 Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020 – 7:22 am

    That’s an excellent article by Ross Gittins.

    Its amazing isn’t it in an environment where interest rates are all but zero, that these guys are still shit scared of debt. You could borrow money to build high speed rail, several new metros and a bunch of other infrastructure as well – all in one hit – and the interest bill would be of no consequence.

    Habits of a lifetime, and the conditioning of the electorate that has gone with it and the victories that flowed, are hard habits to break.

  7. Cat

    Labor has to break the habits of thinking calling for surpluses is the way to highlight their better economic management.

    instead embrace Wayne Swan again. Note when the inevitable surplus chorus appears that Swan spent less bucks for more effective action. Or in common parlance. Swan’s stimulus was a bargain recession beater.

  8. Just listening to that podcast and Rick Wilson says something I’ve been thinking for a while: there is a “cop cult” inside the GOP where the “blue can do no wrong”, and it’s creating militaristic conditions in police forces which allow systemic abuse of their position, not just individual behaviour, but entire systems which support and enable that behaviour.

    I’ve long said the US has a law enforcement culture and boy aren’t we seeing it now!

  9. Confessions

    Hanging around with Democrats seems to be rubbing off on Rick Wilson.

    Of course he supported that GOP reveration of military and law and order rhetoric for years.

  16. A day ago

    @kevinrose tweets

    If Facebook was your sole news source, and you saw only the most popular links on the platform, you’d think that what happened this weekend was a violent, unprovoked attack on law enforcement by a left-wing terror group.

    4 of the top 10 stories on Facebook today are about Trump declaring antifa a terrorist group. One is a feel-good story about a trucker cleaning up after vandals, another is about an officer calmly listening to protesters, one is about violence against law enforcement.

    Top 10 stories on Facebook over the past 24 hours (link posts only, ranked by # of engagements) come from:

    1. Franklin Graham
    2. CNN
    3. Ben Shapiro
    4. Fox News
    5. Fox News
    6. Fox News
    7. Robert Reich
    8. AARP
    9. ForAmerica
    10. Blue Lives Matter

  17. AE, the man who thinks constantly referring to how close he was to Whitlam will boost his personal credibility, forgets that Mark Latham was too. AE, the gift that keeps on giving. All you have to do is prick that pompous ego of his. Ha, ha.

  18. Nothing will change in the States until Republicans actually own all that Trump is, their silence in the tweet posted by guytaur is a disgrace.

    What you walk past is what you accept.

    Believe it will get worse before there is any chance of improvement.

  19. “D.C. had no problems last night. Many arrests. Great job done by all. Overwhelming force. Domination. Likewise, Minneapolis was great (thank you President Trump!).”

    ***

    How can you have “no problems” but at the same time have “many arrests”? It continues to amaze me that the far-right actually buy into this bullshit that he sells on a daily basis. Makes no sense at all but they’ll love the tough talk.

  20. “D.C. had no problems last night. Many arrests. Great job done by all. Overwhelming force. Domination. Likewise, Minneapolis was great (thank you President Trump!).”
    ____
    One Tweeter responded with “4 year old pins cardboard medal upon himself”.

  22. Scout:

    There is a swathe of Republicans in state and federal parliaments who need to be booted out too. It isn’t enough to simply defeat Trump, although that would be a huge start in the process of returning to normalcy.

  23. “Look up at the trees, see the wood, see the koalas, see the birds, see the other wildlife that lives in the pristine forests.”
    (rustling sounds of brown donation envelopes, sounds of chainsaws and logging trucks)
    “We told you to look but you weren’t quick enough. Want to buy a house that will be built here soon?”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/03/australian-government-youtube-videos-promoting-logging-should-be-taken-down-greens-say

  24. How is it a *feather in his cap* that Trump has invited Morrison to attend G7?
    Trump poisons everything & everyone in his orbit. It’s no compliment

  25. Who has authority to use the National Guard the regular military?

    Depending on the state constitution, a governor may have sole authority or may need the state legislature’s permission to call up the state’s National Guard to help enforce the law and maintain public order. State laws lay out specific rules for how the Guard may be used, but most give governors broad authority and discretion.

    When the National Guard is called up under state authority, it is under the governor’s command and paid for out of the state budget. The president can elect to put Guard forces under federal authority under Title 32 of the U.S. Code while leaving them under state command; that lets the federal government pick up costs, as it has done to help support states’ covid-19 responses.

    The president can also fully federalize the Guard under Title 10, which brings the force under the president’s control through the secretary of defense, with the federal government picking up the whole tab. That’s used mainly when the federal government wants to deploy Guard units outside their home states or use a state’s Guard against its governor’s wishes, as President Dwight Eisenhower did during the 1957 desegregation of Central High School in Little Rock, Ark.

    Governors have no authority to call directly upon regular federal military forces for aid, but governors or state legislatures can ask the president to send in federal forces.

    …

    When does the president have the authority to either federalize the National Guard or deploy regular federal troops? According to the 1807 Insurrection Act, those situations include protecting federal property; enforcing federal law, such as civil rights; putting down an insurrection that threatens federal laws or rights, whether or not a state has requested the help; or if a state government asks, to help civil authorities manage civil disturbances that threaten that state’s laws or functioning.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/02/can-trump-send-military-shut-down-protests-heres-what-you-need-know/

  26. Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    ·
    10m
    Most disturbingly, If Trump seeks to create a distraction via military action outside the US, we will get dragged into it because Scott Morrison will not gainsay him, and Parliament has no power to prevent it.

  27. Hey, let’s chop down more native forest and pretend it’s replaceable.

    One three-minute video, “Australian Forestry – planning for tomorrow, today”, features expansive shots of pristine native forests and close-ups of koalas.

    It describes timber as a “material so versatile, so extraordinary that if it didn’t exist, we’d have to invent it”.

    The videos were made to cover all aspects of the logging industry, both native forest logging and plantations.

    The narrator of the three-minute video says the industry uses cutting-edge technology and is committed to a sustainable future “where every tree we use is regrown and replaced”.
    …
    Rice said she was concerned the videos made no distinction between native forest logging and logging that was managed in plantations.

    She said much of what was in the videos could be applied to plantation logging – which accounts for almost 90% of Australia’s timber industry – but not to ongoing native forest logging in states including Victoria, Tasmania and New South Wales.

    Last week, the federal court ruled that logging by VicForests in Victoria’s central highlands had breached state and federal environmental laws, including laws meant to protect threatened species.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/03/australian-government-youtube-videos-promoting-logging-should-be-taken-down-greens-say?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  28. I am sure that Bandt, when he finally implements the Greens policy of holding a community debate on population and migration policy, will point out that doubling the population will double the pressure on our forests, soils, water, air, biodiversity and coasts.

    I urge Senator Rice to pick up the phone to Bandt and demand that he starts the debate straight away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/03/australian-government-youtube-videos-promoting-logging-should-be-taken-down-greens-say

  30. She has particular concerns about the hand-picked body of business leaders and bureaucrats the Federal Government has set up to oversee the economic recovery from the crisis, known as the National COVID-19 Coordination Commission, or NCCC.

    “I think it’s quite alarming,” Justice White told the ABC.

    “There aren’t very many if any bodies that are funded by the government that are not required to be transparent, effective and accountable, yet we don’t have a work plan for this committee.
    …
    Justice White said she was “delighted” when it was announced, in early April, that a Senate select committee had been established to examine the Federal Government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    But that delight turned to dismay when she read the transcripts of its hearings on the NCCC.

    “I can only use one word,” she said. “Disappointing.”

    The hearings “would not inspire confidence” about the commission, she said.

    Mr Power did not appear before the hearings of the Senate committee last month, though he is now scheduled to appear before it this Thursday.

    Although the secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Phil Gaetjens, did appear, Ms White said: “He deflected so many of the questions either because he didn’t know the answers, which were really quite fundamental constitutional issues, or because he felt that he shouldn’t answer them because they related to confidential discussions.”

    Justice White was also dissatisfied with the explanation the NCCC’s CEO, Peter Harris, gave about how conflicts of interests would be handled.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-03/coronavirus-commission-concerns-former-judge-royal-commissioner/12284458?section=business

  31. Further to Confessions excellent posting about militarisation of police.

    Labor should oppose here for the same reasons. We too have deaths in custody and a police force getting out of hand. Labor can act to wind back in those states wher it is in government. Take the high ground and demand the LNP do the same.

    Call them Trump cultists 🙂

  34. ‘Citizens are not the enemy’: Ex-Chair of Joint Chiefs rips Trump for politicizing the military

    On Tuesday, writing for The Atlantic, former admiral and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen laid into President Donald Trump for turning the military on the American people.

    “It sickened me yesterday to see security personnel—including members of the National Guard—forcibly and violently clear a path through Lafayette Square to accommodate the president’s visit outside St. John’s Church,” wrote Mullen.

    “Whatever Trump’s goal in conducting his visit, he laid bare his disdain for the rights of peaceful protest in this country, gave succor to the leaders of other countries who take comfort in our domestic strife, and risked further politicizing the men and women of our armed forces,” wrote Mullen. “There was little good in the stunt.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/06/citizens-are-not-the-enemy-ex-chair-of-joint-chiefs-rips-trump-for-politicizing-the-military/

  36. Tom Nichols @RadioFreeTom

    Trump wants to give this “go” order so badly he can taste it.

    James LaPorta @JimLaPorta

    Also: 700 members of the 82nd are at Joint Base Andrews and Fort Belvoir. 1,400 more soldiers are ready to be mobilized within an hour. Soldiers are armed and have riot gear. They also were issued bayonets—standard issue but some feel could be inflammatory

  37. Another glorious day in Morristan begins.
    Tory Fran breathlessly telling us about the new ‘feather’ in Scrooter’s cap after being invited by Dotard no less to the G7….Fran could barely contain her excitement.
    Then her and Phill Coorey talked up the prospects of everything turning out just fine.

    I tells ya, this one party state thing seems to be working out!

  39. phoenixRED @ #781 Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020 – 6:30 am

    ‘Citizens are not the enemy’: Ex-Chair of Joint Chiefs rips Trump for politicizing the military

    On Tuesday, writing for The Atlantic, former admiral and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen laid into President Donald Trump for turning the military on the American people.

    “It sickened me yesterday to see security personnel—including members of the National Guard—forcibly and violently clear a path through Lafayette Square to accommodate the president’s visit outside St. John’s Church,” wrote Mullen.

    “Whatever Trump’s goal in conducting his visit, he laid bare his disdain for the rights of peaceful protest in this country, gave succor to the leaders of other countries who take comfort in our domestic strife, and risked further politicizing the men and women of our armed forces,” wrote Mullen. “There was little good in the stunt.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/06/citizens-are-not-the-enemy-ex-chair-of-joint-chiefs-rips-trump-for-politicizing-the-military/

    The other thing it does, and we’re guilty of it too, it diminishes our authority and gives licence to other Countries acting in similar ways.

    If we stand up and criticise their actions they can rightly discount that for the hypocrisy that it represents.

  41. This seems a legit polling company and although producing knotted knickers here it would appear that Mercans are a bit more relaxed about “calling in the military”
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………
    Table MC11_3:…………Calling in the U.S. military to supplement city police forces
    Strongly Support -33%
    Somewhat Support 25%
    https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/06/01181629/2005131_crosstabs_POLICE_RVs_FINAL_LM-1.pdf#page195

  42. Melvin Carter, the mayor of St. Paul, Minnesota, took office in January, 2018, promising dramatic change to the city’s racial and economic inequities. Carter, who is forty-one and St. Paul’s first black mayor, was sworn in on the same day as Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, a civil-rights lawyer who also ran on a progressive platform. In the wake of a series of high-profile police shootings in the area, including the killing of Philando Castile in a St. Paul suburb, in 2016, Carter instituted reforms of his city’s police department, to decidedly mixed results. (His director of “community first” public-safety initiatives resigned and criticized the mayor for insufficient support at the beginning of 2019; leaders of a local civilian body that looks into police misconduct stepped down six months later.) Now, however, following the killing of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer, Derek Chauvin, on May 25th, police and protesters have been involved in violent conflicts across the Twin Cities.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/st-pauls-mayor-on-violence-in-the-twin-cities?mbid=social_twitter&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_brand=tny&utm_social-type=owned

  44. guytaur @ #757 Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020 – 7:28 am

    Cat

    Labor has to break the habits of thinking calling for surpluses is the way to highlight their better economic management.

    instead embrace Wayne Swan again. Note when the inevitable surplus chorus appears that Swan spent less bucks for more effective action. Or in common parlance. Swan’s stimulus was a bargain recession beater.

    Oh my, your desperation is showing.
    Funny how everyone seems to agree there’s something Labor needs to, could do, should do, might try….etc is there a school of politics where they could just take a few courses?

  47. poroti @ #788 Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020 – 6:46 am

    This seems a legit polling company and although producing knotted knickers here it would appear that Mercans are a bit more relaxed about “calling in the military”
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………
    Table MC11_3:…………Calling in the U.S. military to supplement city police forces
    Strongly Support -33%
    Somewhat Support 25%
    https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/06/01181629/2005131_crosstabs_POLICE_RVs_FINAL_LM-1.pdf#page195

    In their history the military’s role within their Country has been prominent, so I don’t find it so surprising that people there are relatively accepting of such a situation.

    In Australia, I think the situation would be very different.

  48. Mundo

    While in Opposition the Labor President cam be used to shift the Overton window. I don’t agree with Wayne Swan on some things. However there is no denying he got awarded World’s Best Treasurer.

    He should be appearing on QandA The Project the 7:30 Report and the rest to change the conversation over economics in this country. He is a good Keynesian advocate. A person who put the hard yards in and has the record to show for it.

  49. Employers have accused the Morrison Government of a fresh JobKeeper bungle after it closed down the main website to apply “for maintenance” on the final day to lodge applications.

    Less than a fortnight after the Treasurer Josh Frydenberg revealed a stunning $60 billion underspend in the program, some companies are worried they could miss out after the scheme closed early.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/jobkeeper-website-closed-for-maintenance-on-final-day-to-apply/news-story/5dda94ebaba261c9172a4773257adaa3

  50. I assume that Payne will have told Mug Morrison that associating himself so publicly with Trump at this point in time will reinforce Xi’s view that the de facto barley and beef punishments had better continue for a bit longer.

    But with an omerta government, who knows?

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