Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19

Scott Morrison settles in at a lofty approval rating perch, as hordes of candidates descend upon Eden-Monaro.

Firstly, as per the above post, don’t forget to give generously to the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive. Now to an assembly of recent events in the worlds of polling and Eden-Monaro:

• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s approval up a point to a new high of 65% and disapproval down a point to a new low of 26%, reflecting continuous improvement since a nadir of 39% and 52% in February. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53-23, compared with 50-25 last time. Albanese stands at 43% approval, up one, and 30% disapproval, up three. These numbers have been used to update the BludgerTrack trends, which can be see on the sidebar or in detail here, showing Morrison now at a plateau after his recent ascent.

• The Essential poll also finds 41% saying Jobkeeper reporting bungle reflected negatively on the federal government, compared with 43% saying it did not. “A third” wanted Jobkeeper broadened in response, along with another 20% who wanted the eligibility criteria broadened, while 45% preferred that it go to reducing the debt. The poll also featured a semi-regular suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which have become more favourable for both leaders across the board since January. This is especially so in the case of Morrison, and still more especially in the case of his ratings for good in a crisis (66%), leadership capability (70%) and trustworthiness (66%), which have yo-yoed between the bushfire and coronavirus crises. These ratings will be available to review in detail when the full report is published later day. UPDATE: Full report here.

• A poll by the Australia Institute finds 77% support across the country for state border closures. Labor and Greens supporters are somewhat more in favour, One Nation supporters somewhat less so. The poll was conducted online on May 27 and 28 from a sample of 1005. Small-sample state breakdowns suggested Western Australians were particularly supportive, at 88%, a finding consistent with …

The West Australian ($) had a poll yesterday that recorded a remarkable 89% in favour of keeping the state’s borders closed, with which the state government is persisting in the face of criticism from the federal government and New South Wales government. Presumably the poll had more to it than that, but that’s all there is in the report. The poll was conducted online by Painted Dog Research on Thursday from a sample of 1000.

Eden-Monaro latest:

• With a week still to go before the closure of nominations, the ABC by-election guide records ten candidates and counting, including Cathy Griff for the Greens, Matthew Stadtmiller for Shooters Fishers and Farmers, sundry candidates for the Liberal Democrats, Science Party, Christian Democrats and Sustainable Australia, and two independents. The Nationals have also opened nominations, although they have not traditionally polled strongly in the seat. The deluge has prompted Antony Green to argue that all candidates should be required to produce 100 locally enrolled nominators. This burden is currently imposed only on independents, exemption being a perk of party registration.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced its service plan for the by-election, detailing special measures arising from COVID-19. A familiar set of social distancing rules will apply at polling booths, and mobile polling will not be conducted as normal at hospitals and aged care facilities, where “support teams” will instead assist with postal and telephone voting (the latter still only available to the visually impaired).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19”

Comments Page 18 of 41
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  1. Very interesting observations from NBC’s Security Analyst.
    Matthew Miller
    @matthewamiller
    ·
    1h
    There is no generic DOJ police force, obviously. No badges, no identifying info, refusal to say who they represent – it’s like Russia’s little green men have taken over the nation’s capital.

    Dan Friedman Mother Jones
    @dfriedman33
    Asked who they’re with, these guys say only that they’re with “The Department of Justice.”

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EZidQGVXgAIWKWg?format=jpg&name=large#image.jpg

    It is said they have been hired from Blackwater the mercenary Army of Erik Prince, brother of Betsy De Vos, Trump’s Education Secretary.

  2. “Looking up at the stars is supposed to make us understand that we are just an insignificant part of an immense universe. Maybe someone should explain that to Trump.”

    ***

    As an atheist it certainly makes me feel that way but I’m guessing a Christian like Trump might see things a little differently?

    Religion aside, his chronic narcissism would surely prevent him from feeling like he himself is insignificant. He probably thinks everyone else is though.

  3. Firefox
    says:
    As an atheist it certainly makes me feel that way but I’m guessing a Christian like Trump might see things a little differently?
    ____________________
    I always assumed Trump was an atheist who was just talking shit to get Republican nom?

  4. Joe Biden slams Trump for teargassing Americans at DC church: He held up a Bible – I just wish he’d open one

    Umm… no. There’s plenty of awful stuff in that book I don’t want him getting ideas from.

  5. sprocket_says: Wednesday, June 3, 2020 at 10:35 am

    Republicans Against Trump airing this ad on FoxNews…

    https://mobile.twitter.com/billkristol/status/1267970835358330881

    ***********************************************************************

    Robert Hendrickson @FrRHendrickson – Rector, Saint Philip’s in the Hills Episcopal Church

    This is an awful man, waving a book he hasn’t read, in front of a church he doesn’t attend, invoking laws he doesn’t understand, against fellow Americans he sees as enemies, wielding a military he dodged serving, to protect power he gained via accepting foreign interference……exploiting fear and anger he loves to stoke, after failing to address a pandemic he was warned about, and building it all on a bed of constant lies and childish inanity. This is not partisan. It is simply about recognizing the moral vacuum that is now pretending to lead.

  6. Trump is no Christian. The Bible he handled yesterday had never been opened and he was so unfamiliar with the book he held it upside down. Most true Christians have their own, well-thumbed copy of the Bible that they have to hand.

  7. I always assumed Trump was an atheist who was just talking shit to get Republican nom?

    Either that, or very lapsed Christian. However, he has no problem pushing the Christian Right agenda, so either way, he’s hardly a friend of any atheist or secular cause.

  8. “Looking up at the stars is supposed to make us understand that we are just an insignificant part of an immense universe. Maybe someone should explain that to Trump.”

    – Religious people see the glory of God
    – Trump contemplates how insignificant it all is compared to his own glory

  9. How unsurprisement

    Justin
    @JustinAHorwitz
    ·
    45m
    “Trump wants to designate Antifa a terrorist organization despite lack of authority and zero evidence of wrongdoing.” Truly unreal story by
    @kenklippenstein
    FBI Finds ‘No Intel Indicating Antifa Involvement’ in Sunday’s Violence
    Trump wants to designate Antifa a terrorist organization despite lack of authority and zero evidence of wrongdoing.
    thenation.com
    https://www.thenation.com/article/activism/antifa-trump-fbi/tnamp/?__twitter_impression=true

  10. I did wonder why Trump turned up at a church yesterday. At LEAST he could have read from the bible. It’s not like it doesn’t contain plenty of fire and brimstone to quote from.

    Romans 13:1-5
    Submission to Governing Authorities
    13 Let everyone be subject to the governing authorities, for there is no authority except that which God has established. The authorities that exist have been established by God. 2 Consequently, whoever rebels against the authority is rebelling against what God has instituted, and those who do so will bring judgment on themselves. 3 For rulers hold no terror for those who do right, but for those who do wrong. Do you want to be free from fear of the one in authority? Then do what is right and you will be commended. 4 For the one in authority is God’s servant for your good. But if you do wrong, be afraid, for rulers do not bear the sword for no reason. They are God’s servants, agents of wrath to bring punishment on the wrongdoer. 5 Therefore, it is necessary to submit to the authorities, not only because of possible punishment but also as a matter of conscience.

    or perhaps this one (from Pulp Fiction):
    Ezekiel 25:17. “The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of the darkness, for he is truly his brother’s keeper and the finder of lost children.

  11. “I always assumed Trump was an atheist who was just talking shit to get Republican nom?”

    ***

    Who knows? He certainly invokes Christianity whenever he thinks he can benefit from it though. He didn’t pull that stunt at the church yesterday for no reason. Whether he believes or not he knows that he needs to keep the conservative Christian right on his side.

    Reminds me of the question of Hitler’s faith. There’s a lot of debate about whether he personally was a Christian or not but there’s no doubt that he used Christianity to his advantage to gain more support.

  12. C@tmomma @ #860 Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020 – 8:43 am

    Trump is no Christian. The Bible he handled yesterday had never been opened and he was so unfamiliar with the book he held it upside down. Most true Christians have their own, well-thumbed copy of the Bible that they have to hand.

    typo:
    Should be;

    … so unfamiliar with books he …

    🙂

  13. I think that public religiosity, like climate denial, “family values” and conspicuous patriotism, is high among the standard virtue signals that anyone aspiring to public office on the political Right has to display, especially in the USA.

  14. As an atheist I no more blame christianity for Trump than I would say atheism was to blame for the way Adolf Hitler turned out. Neither leader cares or cared about a sense of morality. For both of them religions and codes of morality were tribal labels or brand-names, not things to be practiced.

  15. Also I could not help thinking that mainland Americans are finding out this week what Puerto Ricans have known for two years. That Trump will quite cheerfully let innocent Americans die if it advances his political interests by a single vote.

    He has betrayed his oath of office on many occaisions by now. Trump obviously has to go if US democracy is to survive. But so too must Trump’s enablers in the US Senate, who have refused to impeach him, and voted to stack the Supreme Court with partisan judges who put party loyalty before the law.

  16. Nazi Christianity was weird. They had to go into a lot of myth-making to kind of “de-Jew” the bible and Jesus himself. But, no they weren’t atheists. That was considered a symptom of social decline and a product of things like Marxism or liberalism.

  17. “than I would say atheism was to blame for the way Adolf Hitler turned out.”

    ***

    QUOTE:

    And finally we were also the first to point the people on any large scale to a danger which insinuated itself into our midst – a danger which millions failed to realize and which will nonetheless lead us all into ruin – the Jewish danger. And today people are saying yet again that we were ‘agitators.’ I would like here to appeal to a greater than I, Count Lerchenfeld. He said in the last session of the Landtag that his feeling ‘as a man and a Christian’ prevented him from being an anti-Semite. I SAY: MY FEELING AS A CHRISTIAN POINTS ME TO MY LORD AND SAVIOUR AS A FIGHTER. IT POINTS ME TO THE MAN WHO ONCE IN LONELINESS, SURROUNDED ONLY BY A FEW FOLLOWERS, RECOGNIZED THESE JEWS FOR WHAT THEY WERE AND SUMMONED MEN TO THE FIGHT AGAINST THEM AND WHO, GOD’S TRUTH! WAS GREATEST NOT AS SUFFERER BUT AS FIGHTER. In boundless love as a Christian and as a man I read through the passage which tells us how the Lord at last rose in His might and seized the scourge to drive out of the Temple the brood of vipers and of adders. How terrific was His fight for the world against the Jewish poison. Today, after two thousand years, with deepest emotion I recognize more profoundly than ever before – the fact that it was for this that He had to shed His blood upon the Cross. As a Christian I have no duty to allow myself to be cheated, but I have the duty to be a fighter for truth and justice. And as a man I have the duty to see to it that human society does not suffer the same catastrophic collapse as did the civilization of the ancient world some two thousand years ago – a civilization which was driven to its ruin through this same Jewish people.

    -Hitler
    MUNICH SPEECH OF APRIL 12, 1922

    http://www.hitler.org/speeches/04-12-22.html

  18. Speaking of bad policing, I see that NSW Police Commissioner, PM neighbour and all round good bloke Mick Fuller said that the officer who allegedly kicked an Aboriginal to the ground yesterday was “having a bad day”. No doubt.

    I had hoped Mr Fuller would be more concerned to impartially investigate the incident to see whether an offence had been committed.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-03/outrage-continues-over-indigenous-sydney-teen-arrest/12313416

  19. Steve777 @ #870 Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020 – 10:56 am

    I think that public religiosity, like climate denial, “family values” and conspicuous patriotism, is high among the standard virtue signals that anyone aspiring to public office on the political Right has to display, especially in the USA.

    Well we got one who climbed to the top of the greasy pole in Australia.

  20. Raef
    @RaefDLF

    Replying to
    @BillKristol
    and
    @RVAT2020
    When Trump ran in 2016 things were decent but he claimed we were in total freefall. Today we’re actually in freefall and he’s gonna run on how great he’s done.

    Black is White and White is Black.

  21. The High Court has found the tear-gassing of four teenagers in Darwin’s Don Dale Youth Detention Centre was unlawful.

    Lawyers for the teenagers had appealed against lower-court findings that adult prison officers were authorised to use the gas during a night of unrest in August 2014.

    In a majority ruling, the High Court found exemptions allowing the guards’ use of the gas, which is classified as a prohibited weapon, did not apply in the youth detention centre.

    The decision opens the way for the teenagers to claim damages for battery.

  22. CtM………..re Trump and the bible being held upside down, how can you tell?
    It doesn’t matter in the great march of human events as this cynical exercise by Trump is akin to the huge state funeral service given for Rommel when the Gestapo made him take poison. On the photo I have seen (fake?) juxtaposed with A Hitler yesterday here on PB, the facing page was plain and black.
    I am happy to be shown I have made a mistake, but we all need, I guess to be careful not to make the over-blown mistakes that pleases our consciences rather the actual event depicted.

  23. Tear-gassing of teens in Don Dale Youth Detention Centre was unlawful, High Court rules

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-03/don-dale-tear-gassing-unlawful-high-court-rules/12315170

    The High Court has found the tear-gassing of four teenagers in Darwin’s Don Dale Youth Detention Centre was unlawful.

    Lawyers for the teenagers had appealed against lower-court findings that adult prison officers were authorised to use the gas during a night of unrest in August 2014.

    In a majority ruling, the High Court found exemptions allowing the guards’ use of the gas, which is classified as a prohibited weapon, did not apply in the youth detention centre.

    The decision opens the way for the teenagers to claim damages for battery.

  24. Paris protest turns violent in rally against deaths of black Frenchman and George Floyd

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-03/police-death-protest-turns-violent-in-paris/12314448

    French riot police have fired tear gas on thousands of protesters who threw projectiles and set fires in Paris during an unauthorised demonstration against racial injustice and police violence.

    Demonstrators gathered in solidarity with those protesting the death of George Floyd in the United States, and also to demand justice over the killing of black Frenchman Adama Traore in police custody in 2016.
    :::
    The Traore case has become emblematic of the fight against police brutality in France.

    The circumstances of the death of the 24-year-old Frenchman of Malian origin are still under investigation after four years of conflicting medical reports about what happened.

  25. Firefox says:
    Tuesday, June 2, 2020 at 9:08 pm
    “Sometimes the least worst option really is the best you can do. Especially after seeing the damage an idiot like George W Bush and Donald Trump can do.”

    ***

    What do you call someone who enables a dangerous idiot like that?

    Splitters from the self-gratifying phony Left.

  26. Black Lives Matter
    @davidhogg111

    It’s been 24 hours and I still have yet to see any NRA member standing up to this military occupation they always say they need guns for.

    Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School Massacre Gun Control advocate.

  27. Daniel Andrews, The Age @ 11:26am

    Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews warned violence would not be tolerated at a rally planned for Melbourne on Saturday.

    “If it’s not peaceful then it is not a protest, it is something very different,” Mr Andrews told reporters on Wednesday.

    “The only form of legitimate protest is a peaceful protest and Victoria Police will not tolerate violence they will not tolerate some of the disorder what we’ve seen overseas.”

    The decision not to issue protesters with fines for breaching social distancing rules had been made by police, who did not believe it was feasible to fining thousands of people at a rally, he said.

  28. Josh Bornstein
    @JoshBBornstein
    1h
    The coronavirus pandemic has given the Morrison government cover to further undermine institutions that it regards as a hotbed of leftists: universities, the arts, the public sector

  29. C
    says:
    Splitters from the self-gratifying phony Left.
    ________________________
    No doubt you think the protestors against the Vietnam War and Apartheid were splitters too. They should have stayed patiently by their radios at home and waited for change.

  30. Mabo Day recognises the fight for justice for Aboriginal and Torres Straight Islanders.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6779569/its-28-years-since-high-court-handed-down-historic-mabo-decision/?cs=14231

    Today marks 28 years since the High Court of Australia handed down the landmark Mabo decision, bringing native title laws to Australia.

    The historic decision changed the face of Australia and marked a turning point for Indigenous people and their communities, with the court finding that Australia was occupied when the British arrived.

  31. Mark Butler MP
    @Mark_Butler_MP
    Liberal candidate for the Eden-Monaro by-election, Fiona Kotvojs, can’t be trusted on tackling climate change. THREAD.

    Fiona Kotvojs has downplayed climate change, saying that: “climate change is something that has always occurred and it will always continue to occur.”

    When asked: “Do you accept the scientific consensus that the challenges of the climate at the moment are brought about by greenhouse gas emissions that we have created?” Kotjovs said “There is a lot of evidence both ways.”

    Fiona Kotvojs dismissed climate change as one of the greatest threats to Pacific Island nations despite Pacific Leaders warning just months earlier that “Climate change is the single greatest threat to our Blue Pacific region.”

    Fiona Kotvojs described solar activity as “the major forcing agent in climate change”.

    Fiona Kotvojs has refused to endorse Australia achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

    Make no mistake, Fiona Kotvojs is a climate change sceptic.

    When the Liberals say she’ll be part of their team, she really will. She’ll be part of the Liberal team that’s done nothing on climate change.

  32. ‘Other ways’ to arrest Sydney teen: police

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6779227/other-ways-to-arrest-sydney-teen-police/?cs=14231

    The sister of an indigenous NSW teenager who had his legs kicked out from beneath him while being arrested says children shouldn’t be mistreated because they’re being “lippy”.
    :::
    The teenager’s parents and other relatives will speak about the incident in a press conference at NSW parliament on Wednesday alongside Greens MP David Shoebridge.

  33. https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1267943092436361216/1lYmEnku?format=jpg&name=small#image.png

    President Donald Trump ordered military aircraft to fly above the nation’s capital Monday night as a “show of force” against demonstrators protesting the death of George Floyd, according to two Department of Defense officials.

    Soldiers are also being armed with bayonets, a move some feel is inflammatory.

    https://7news.com.au/news/conflict/usa-riots-soldiers-responding-to-protests-armed-with-bayonets-c-1075499

  34. First-quarter GDP was -0.3 per cent the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Wednesday. On an annual basis GDP was 1.4 per cent.

    Economists had been expecting a contraction of 0.4 per cent for the quarter for the country’s first negative reading since 2011.

    The Australian dollar is at US69.6c after the reading down from US69.8c before the data.

  35. Greens Lundt doing a bit of Yimby astroturfing.
    He should realize that doubling the population will create massive new transport problems when the existing transport problems show a stupendous lag to the existing population.

    Lundt should just pick up the phone to Bandt and urge him to implement the Australian Greens policy… to hold a community debate… now.

  36. ‘After fires and the early stages of the coronavirus rocked the country, Australia’s GDP figures put it half way to the popular definition of a recession.’

    ‘the popular definition of a recession.”

    Sounds like fun.
    The media will do their best to downplay the recession.

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