Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The Coalition edges back into the lead in Newspoll, with Labor, the Greens and One Nation all down on the primary vote.

The Australian reports the Coalition has opened a 51-49 lead in the latest Newspoll, after the previous poll three weeks ago recorded a dead heat. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 43%, with Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down two to 10% and One Nation down one to 3%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is down two to 66%, with the disapproval not yet provided; Albanese is down one on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 37%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is all but unchanged at 56-29, compared with 56-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1504. More detail to follow later.

UPDATE: Morrison’s disapproval rating turns out to be up two to 30%. These numbers have been incorporated into the BludgerTrack leadership trends which you can see on the sidebar and in greater detail here. Newspoll has put to respondents the same suite of questions concerning coronavirus in its last three polls, which record soaring confidence in “federal and state governments’ performance” in managing the economic impact (60% satisfied, up 13 points on last time, and 24% dissatisfied, down nine), preparing the health system (up 19 to 78% and down 13 to 15%) and informing Australians about how to protect themselves (up seven to 82% and down seven to 13%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

828 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. I agree davidwh, unfortunately c@tmomma only does nasty personal attacks.

    Since my return from two months self-isolation I have avoided engaging in any of that individuals nasty bile despite numerous attempts to provoke a response from me.

    Unfortunately nasty personal attacks is the inherent nature of this particular kitty.

  2. davidwh @ #597 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 6:59 pm

    C@t I didn’t know that about Anastasia so that was a low blow by him. However I just think we should leave families out of these discussions.

    Exactly. And I wish Bucephalus would do that because there is no more private a matter to a woman. Not to mention the fact that Buce’s own federal leader is well-known to have been down the IVF path. Lucky for him it was successful.

  3. Lizzie @6:57 – thank you. Economics Editor at The Australian.
    William @6:56 – for what it’s worth (not much I know) – fully agree.

  4. Barney: “However with a couple of Liberal Senators crossing the Floor, the Greens were in a position to provide the numbers to pass the legislation.”

    Yes, my bad: I’d forgotten that bit. Still, there was a brief moment in which Rudd might have tried (and perhaps did try) to gain the Greens’ support. And that’s when he ran into the problem that he had done nothing other than treat the Greens with contempt for the entire time he had been PM.
    So the not being able to sell water in a desert comment still applies.

    Anyway, why is this the historical moment that people want to pick on in trying to explain why we don’t have an emissions trading scheme? I think the truly relevant moment is when Gillard started agreeing with journalists that the scheme she had managed to put in place was a “tax.” IMO that’s what ruined the chance of our having an emissions trading scheme in place that might survive a change of government.

  5. William Bowe @ #595 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 6:56 pm

    Let the record note that you’re not allowed to say this sort of thing.

    Buce. Did your wife have any trouble conceiving your children?

    As a male I understand that you don’t understand the significant context of the question either. Read my explanation. I was simply attempting to point to Bucephalus’ rank hypocrisy and pig ignorant defense of his name-calling of the Queensland Premier.

    For the record, tell me if you thought THAT was okay for him to do?

  6. Steve777 @ #605 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 7:03 pm

    Lizzie @6:57 – thank you. Economics Editor at The Australian.
    William @6:56 – for what it’s worth (not much I know) – fully agree.

    Wow. Another male supporting the male moderator. Maybe you should read my explanation before butting in with your considered opinion?

  7. The fossil fuel industry completed their suborning and purchase of the Coalition parties in the latter part of 2009. The deal was sealed with the installation of Abbott on 1/12/2009. They haven’t had to look back since.

  8. C@t unfortunately politicians seem to be open slather to name calling and other forms of abuse. For example Julie Bishop copped plenty here over the years. I just think amongst ourselves we should leave families out of our discussions.

  9. Lars Von Trier @ #602 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 7:02 pm

    I agree davidwh, unfortunately c@tmomma only does nasty personal attacks.

    Since my return from two months self-isolation I have avoided engaging in any of that individuals nasty bile despite numerous attempts to provoke a response from me.

    Unfortunately nasty personal attacks is the inherent nature of this particular kitty.

    Oh look, another male not caring about a male on female personal slur but jumping in, boots and all to have a go at one of the two women on this blog that have stood up to Bucephalus and called him on his outrageous slur of Anastacia Palacsjuk, which he has refused to apologise for.

    Although, after the treatment Julia Gillard was subjected to by Liberals, it comes as no surprise to see another male Liberal behaving this way towards a state female Labor leader.

  10. davidwh @ #611 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 7:11 pm

    C@t unfortunately politicians seem to be open slather to name calling and other forms of abuse. For example Julie Bishop copped plenty here over the years. I just think amongst ourselves we should leave families out of our discussions.

    Exactly, and that’s why Bucephalus should not do it any more. Not come back and say he will continue to.

    Aren’t there any standards left? And yes, I have crossed the line myself, more than once, however, I tried to practice what I preached while Julie Bishop was Foreign Minister, on that front at least.

  11. Lars von Trier,
    Butter wouldn’t melt in your mouth, eh? However, I don’t think we should forget how you accused me of being a ‘Backdoor Betty’, code for, you know very well what it was code for. Or being an alcoholic, on numerous occasions. Your slate is not clean. So don’t come the raw prawn, you don’t have a leg to stand on.

  12. Anyway, that’s the last thing I have to say on the matter. I’m off to watch the Lego Masters finale. I just hope Bucephalus gets the message.

    And I unreservedly apologise for all the things I have said in the past about Gladys Berejiklian. There. End of.

  13. mundo @ #607 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 7:17 pm

    michael @ #509 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 4:27 pm

    One year today since the shock win.
    The preferred PM is 56-29 to Morrison.
    A poll has just been released in NZ and Ardern is a mile in front on PM ratings in NZ so they have both done well.

    Scrote is toast!
    Toast I tells ya!

    It’s Howard all over again.
    Labor doesn’t have a fucking hope in hell of knocking Morrison off.
    Last year was 1998…give or take.
    The winning margin just gets wider from here on in.

  14. Rudd dismissed the Greens overtures re the CPRS in favour of the mining unions who preferred Malcolms half-baked version.

  15. There was no way on Earth Turnbull could have convinced the LNP to agree to a Labor-Greens CPRS-based Climate Policy.

    I have little doubt this would have been made clear to Rudd privately, before the Wong-MacFarlane negotiations even began.

    If bi-partisanship was to have any chance at all, The Greens had to be sidelined.

    If the deal had succeeded, it would have been with the unanimous approval of the house… far solider than something snuck through at 3am after two dozen procedural divisions.

  16. boerwar:

    [‘After four years of war crimes investigations the end game approacheth. It will be interesting to see whether the trials are held in camera. Any bets on it?’]

    Only parts of the trial(s) that would raise security issues. Even in the cosseted, secretive world of the SAS, justice must be seen to be done. And such would be the decision of the presiding judge, subject to legislation, not the Executive.

  17. Rudd dismissed the Greens overtures re the CPRS in favour of the mining unions who preferred Malcolms half-baked version.

    Instead the Greens, and the nation, got nothing.

    Both still have nothing over a decade later.

    A brilliant result!

  18. What the libs/nats are forgetting that they are a 10% higher taxing parties

    No matter what taxes Labor brings in, would be cheaper by 10% than the libs/nats GST

  19. Great news about the appointment of my colleague and fellow Chambers member, David McClure SC.

    A Queenslander and someone who in 2007 left the comforts of Barrister life to go and serve in Afghanistan

  20. The Trump clan makes the hillbillies in Deliverance look like upper class toffs.

    I’m off to watch Ten Seconds to Hell.

  21. BB

    If bi-partisanship was to have any chance at all, The Greens had to be sidelined.

    Yep, through work I was going to various ‘Carbon conferences’ and listening to the great and the good, including the likes of ‘Chainsaw’ and Combet. The atmosphere was that a bipartisan deal had to be done so as to lock it in to the future. I have no problems with the Greens pushing a harder line at the time as it made it easier for a Truffles-Rudd deal to look ‘sensible centre’. It also seemed accepted wisdom that bipartisan support was a done deal. Little did we know the arseholes Minchin and Robb had been hard at work doing the dirty work for ???

  22. Bushfire Bill @ #609 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 7:45 pm

    Rudd dismissed the Greens overtures re the CPRS in favour of the mining unions who preferred Malcolms half-baked version.

    Instead the Greens, and the nation, got nothing.

    Both still have nothing over a decade later.

    A brilliant result!

    Congratulations comrade.

  23. OC

    No, I am getting an extra two weeks to lodge my tax return and BAS seems to have been deferred for four weeks.

    Our professional leaders asked for some sort of tax relief from Christian Porter who told us politely to go jump.

    There is some small corporate tax offset for the service company of which I am shareholder.

    Plus I told my board that the silks can pay the wages of any staff who would be laid off but none were.

  24. The Greens alone didn’t give the numbers in the Senate, so it was pointless negotiating with them.

    However with a couple of Liberal Senators crossing the Floor, the Greens were in a position to provide the numbers to pass the legislation.

    The greens only made one mistake. They assumed that Labor would win a HoR majority at the following election, and that because of the way the senate worked there would be a Labor / Greens senate majority.

    If this had of come to pass Labor would have had to play the ‘center’ role and the Greens could have played to their base and possibly grown it by playing the more aggressive environmental party and painting the ALP as the weak, captured by fossil fuel interest, not doing enough party.

    It was a great strategy and the only error was failing to realize two things:

    Firstly the ALP ability to take defeat from the jaws of certain victory.

    Secondly the fact that they bagged the ALP plan as ‘so bad you might as well do nothing’ was a permission structure for a lot of voters across the center of the spectrum to decide that ‘nothing’ was the right amount of effort that should be invested with their taxpayer dollars.

    Without these two factors it was great politics, it didn’t end up that way it ended up ALP style political thinking, but they tried.

  25. Little did we know the arseholes Minchin and Robb had been hard at work doing the dirty work for ???

    Rudd and Malcolm were outplayed and made fools of.

    The greatest moral challenge of their lifetime…

  26. Rex Douglas @ #624 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 7:51 pm

    Bushfire Bill @ #609 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 7:45 pm

    Rudd dismissed the Greens overtures re the CPRS in favour of the mining unions who preferred Malcolms half-baked version.

    Instead the Greens, and the nation, got nothing.

    Both still have nothing over a decade later.

    A brilliant result!

    Congratulations comrade.

    The nation got the carbon price under Prime minister Gillard.
    The nation then decided it wanted Tony Abbott to take the carbon price away.
    Any other reading of history is fucked in the head.

  27. Anyone watching Australian Story on ABC?
    Its about John Doyle. He used to share a staffroom at Glendale High School with my dad and became a family friend. We knew him as in incredible bullshit artist long before he ended up on the radio.

    “72 percent of all statistics are made up” he’d say with confidence…

  28. “Who’s the idiot on The Drum?”

    Norman Swan tonight on 7:30 was forced to have to give air time to that lady economist that also featured as a panelist on Q+A. The one that reeked of “herd immunity”.

  29. Little did we know the arseholes Minchin and Robb had been hard at work doing the dirty work for ???

    Vested interests.

    That said, the Greens should’ve voted for the CPRS. I think this whole thing has simply shown that if you hold out for everything you want, you end up with nothing. Just a shame that it’s our country bearing the cost for the Greens tantrum a decade ago.

  30. Confessions

    In hind sight YES but at the time the atmosphere was it was a done deal it was the ‘new normal’. So no harm in Greens looking a bit “pure”as it made no difference in such circumstances. My anger to this day remains directed towards Minchin+Robb and whoever they were the cat’s paws for.

  31. Cud Chewer @ #638 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 6:13 pm

    Anyone watching Australian Story on ABC?
    Its about John Doyle. He used to share a staffroom at Glendale High School with my dad and became a family friend. We knew him as in incredible bullshit artist long before he ended up on the radio.

    “72 percent of all statistics are made up” he’d say with confidence…

    35 years of HG & Roy.

    For 35 years, Rampaging Roy Slaven and HG Nelson have parodied the tired tropes of sporting commentary with equal parts venom and affection.

    Their refrain “when too much sport is barely enough” has become part of the national consciousness and their simulcast commentary of State of Origin games have achieved cult-like status. To this day, many former players have been unable to shake the bizarrely inventive — and frequently profane — nicknames with which they were dubbed.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-18/john-doyle-and-greig-pickhaver-talk-about-roy-and-hg/12238578

  32. Watching Australian Story shows the difference between the two parts of Australia. Roy and Haitch Gee were fundamentally RRRugby League and Northern (Yes, they did some AFL but their origin and expertise was Taking the piss out of NRL)

  33. We Want Paul

    The greens only made one mistake. They assumed that Labor would win a HoR majority at the following election, and that because of the way the senate worked there would be a Labor / Greens senate majority.

    If this had of come to pass Labor would have had to play the ‘center’ role and the Greens could have played to their base and possibly grown it by playing the more aggressive environmental party and painting the ALP as the weak, captured by fossil fuel interest, not doing enough party.

    You are talking about the 2010 election (at that election the Greens were just naive), but this was exactly the Greens plan for the 2019 March NSW election, for the 2019 May Federal election, and I assume it will be the same game plan for the 2020 Qld state election. And in these latter, they knew / know exactly what they were / are doing . There is no way the Greens management will countenance a Labor majority. It is either Labor governments are minority governments held up by Greens support, or we get Coalition governments until the electorate learns to elect nothing but a Greens / Labor coalition, or by Bob Browns reckoning, a Greens majority by 2050.

  34. To make it political Senator Brick with Eyes liked his nickname while Back Door Bennie (who had some links with the Beagle Boys) apparently didn’t

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