The Australian reports the Coalition has opened a 51-49 lead in the latest Newspoll, after the previous poll three weeks ago recorded a dead heat. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 43%, with Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down two to 10% and One Nation down one to 3%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is down two to 66%, with the disapproval not yet provided; Albanese is down one on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 37%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is all but unchanged at 56-29, compared with 56-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1504. More detail to follow later.
UPDATE: Morrison’s disapproval rating turns out to be up two to 30%. These numbers have been incorporated into the BludgerTrack leadership trends which you can see on the sidebar and in greater detail here. Newspoll has put to respondents the same suite of questions concerning coronavirus in its last three polls, which record soaring confidence in “federal and state governments’ performance” in managing the economic impact (60% satisfied, up 13 points on last time, and 24% dissatisfied, down nine), preparing the health system (up 19 to 78% and down 13 to 15%) and informing Australians about how to protect themselves (up seven to 82% and down seven to 13%).
GG
Agree re: all the important respects of your post.
Which is why I am very pleased that Albanese is not doing something like, ‘All Morrison needs to do is to pick up the phone and…’
p
Agree. Twiggy and Gina and Stokes own this Government.
this essay at the conversation is very good. the version at the abc site is missing the graphic detailing “explanations of the views of all 34 economists, and their confidence rating”.
https://theconversation.com/economists-back-social-distancing-34-9-in-new-economic-society-conversation-survey-138721
boerwar
The timing stuck out like the proverbials. All the appearance of a lap dog sent out to do Trump’s bidding. Or did Scrott do some freelance sucking up ?
One of the underlying trends that is going to cause mayhem for Australian iron ore exports to China regardless of any other consideration is that the Chinese built environment now embeds absolutely massive amounts of steel.
The relevant trend is that recooking recycled steel will reduce the need for imported ores.
The second relevant trend is that for the economy to mature the comrades have to figure out a way of shifting the economy into a higher proportion of services. As this occurs the need for smelting new ore will also go down.
What Australia should be doing is figuring out its strategy for the time when iron ore and coal will become a glut on the market.
Is Snap Back Morrison the visionary to figure this out?
No. He wants to go back. He is a wannabe lacka band.
He might rearrange the mental furniture but it will be the same mental furniture.
“mundo..
Sorry Alpo, it is.”…
Good on ya, mundo…. staying right by the side of your captain, ScuMo, as the ship is sinking…
… Miracles happen only once….
When I drove up the Snowy from Buchan to Jindabyne last October it was wall-to-wall horses…the water ways were jammed with the feral wreckers…
Would have been nice to see a kangaroo…
Boerwar:
About this time last years the Ramsay Foundation (which has the money) told the Ramsay Centre to pull its head in, or lose the money.
It’s quite a lot of money, so in was the head pulled. Hence the UQ deal is a normal commercial deal, unlike the previous ‘deals’.
p
It would be interesting to know just how and why Morrison cocked it up!
EGT
I was just enjoying a culture war sally… no need for any reality to ruin it!
‘Bucephalus says:
Monday, May 18, 2020 at 3:45 pm
boerwarsays:
Monday, May 18, 2020 at 3:33 pm
Given the sledges against Conservative Politicians on this site I’m pretty comfortable with where I’m at.’
Kindergarten stuff.
SK
Of course letting recent arrivals from Wuhan into schools was foolish and dangerous and knowingly so very early on.
That was not the point you made earlier to which I was responding which was about shutting schools generally for which good arguments for and against, both now and before, remain.
First NZ voting intention poll in three months:
Aaron Dahmen
@dahmenaaron
JUST IN.
Newshub-Reid Research poll:
Labour: 56.5%
National: 30.6%
Greens: 5.5%
NZ First: 2.7%
Aaron Dahmen @dahmenaaron
20m
Preferred Prime Minister: Jacinda Ardern (59.5%), Simon Bridges (4.5%), Judith Collins (3.1%)
There have certainly been some futile bits of public transport going on for a while but seeing the Sydney Ferry head to the stop at Taronga Zoo reasonably frequently is up there.
Torchbearer
What you were seeing was:
1. A determination by Bere and Bari to totally ignore the science.
2. A cooked up cultural ‘value’.
3. Yet another example of how very, very much Liberals and Nationals hold a deep disdain for our environment.
Where the fuck is that slackarse Environment Minister Ley in all this? She is working out ways of speeding up ways of reducing EPBC Act regulations and gutting the capacity to implement what is left of it.
By the way, since we are thinking about the High Country, how is Minister Ley going with initiating action on Taylor for breaching the EPBC Act?
One year today since the shock win.
The preferred PM is 56-29 to Morrison.
A poll has just been released in NZ and Ardern is a mile in front on PM ratings in NZ so they have both done well.
boerwar
It is a real pity we do not have the NZ system where the cabinet papers etc are made public within weeks rather than decades. They are currently enjoying going through what was going on behind the scenes back when the decision to lock down was being made.What they got right,got wrong,flew blind on,got right for the wrong reasons,worried them and all the rest.
guytaur:
“Palasczcuk was very astute to pursue a stake in Virgin.”
Indeed!… She and her government have shown what a Mixed Economy is all about, which is exactly what this country will need to get out of the current mess (the mess was building up well before coronavirus, btw).
Dutton and ScuMo are indeed furious…. whereas Deb Frecklington is pretty much lost….
William
Can those preferred prime minister figures be right?
Only 4.5% for the number two? The total for the three comes to less than 70%
michael
Any comment on the size of the increase in support for NZ Labour verses the increase (?) in Coalition support here as an indicator of who has done well ?
p
I imagine that, were the discussions to be made public like that in Australia, the note takers would be instructed to record decisions only.
Bucephalus
Here comes Brumby John
Lettin’ the horses have free run…
Hear him sing as he wheels them around
He keeps them together safe and sound
http://johnbarilaro.com.au/save-the-snowy-mountains-brumby-john-speaks-in-nsw-parliament-about-the-wild-brumby/
“The preferred PM is 56-29 to Morrison.”…
… and yet the 2PP is only 51% for the Coalition…. Interesting, isn’t it?
I guess that they will keep propping up ScuMo, in the belief that it was him who won the 2019 federal election, whereas the ALP was defeated because of Shorten. Hence also wait for a campaign against Albo…
Maybe that the 2022 federal election will finally kill this presidential-style delusion that the Liberals have been building up since Howard….
Have a look at this NZ television coverage of that NZ poll.
Absolutely, brutal to the NZ Opposition.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/newshub-reid-research-poll-jacinda-ardern-goes-stratospheric-simon-bridges-is-annihilated.html
boerwar
What was included and it being available so soon was a bit of a “culture shock” 🙂
Australia’s post-pandemic reform agenda must include modernising the 20-year-old GST, part of efforts to effectively address economic and social adjustments caused by the crisis.
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian this week called for momentum from national cabinet to be harnessed for major economic reforms, including having change to the GST “on the table”.
KPMG global head of indirect taxes, Lachlan Wolfers, said the Howard government introduced the GST in July 2000 because the tax base under the previous wholesale sales system was too narrow.
“Now 20 years later we see that the GST system is in a similar state of long-term decline in its tax base, because Australians are spending proportionately more on GST-free and exempt items,” he said.
“At the right time coming out of this crisis, it is inevitable that the government will take a close look at modernising the GST system to prepare it for the next 20 years.”
New Zealand’s GST covers more than 90 per cent of consumption while in Australia its now under 60 per cent.
Former Liberal leader and Australian National University professorial fellow John Hewson called for change as part of broader tax reform.
“In a world where we are going to have deficits into the hundreds of billions, the government is going to have to look at much longer term reform to give sustainable growth.
“When you have the chance for bipartisan support from the states to go and say no to any GST reform is irresponsible.”
Dr Hewson said broadening the base to 15 per cent would result in more than $90 billion in new revenue, with 30 per cent covering the bottom two quintiles of income distribution.
“From this current crisis we are going to see huge adjustments economically and socially so the PM is going to be more innovative in his thinking.”
UNSW expert and Tax Institute senior tax counsel Bob Deutsch said the base of the GST should be broadened to include basic food, health and education, with compensation packages for low-paid workers and pensioners.
Yes correct Poroti, NZ Labour is a mile in front of the Nationals, its much tighter in Australia. Ardern polling is better than Morrison’s clearly.
NZ go to the polls on the 19th Sept this year so she should be exceptionally confident of winning outright now.
In Australia our election is probably 2 years away. 21 May 2022 is the date I would favour if nothing significant happens.
p
Yep. Good clean fun.
New Holland is looking good again today.. 🙂
I remember sitting in on a phonecall with Lachlan, before he left Australia (I assume he is still gone) wondering which parts of the GST Act he did know, because he was completely unfamiliar with the provisions that were the subject of that call.
In that post, at the start, I made mention of numerous stuff ups that went back to the beginning that suggested a stubbornness and groupthink in SAHealth that effected later decisions. That is the point.
It is not about schools opening or closing. Schools have always been open here. The quote from InDaily was about SAHealths decision to urge parents to send their kids to school by stating that is was completely safe. Then they did a study and found it wasnt completely safe.
That is either incompetence (who does a study on if it is safe AFTER announcing it is safe?) or they were disingenuous in the first instance.
I get the pros and cons argument about schools opening and shutting. By that time there was a legitimate debate to be had where, yes, it would be a considered view vs considered view situation. I have no gripe with the alternate view. My gripe was with the misleading statistics and erroneous statements (that they should have known were wrong) that were being made to justify the decision. Why did they feel the need to lie and mislead? What does that do to future trust in the institutions?
Having said that, if an increase in the GST to 15% was directed towards a phased in of UBI, and coupled with an extra tier of personal income tax, and an increase in corporate income tax, I’d be all for it.
poroti, a few hours back (sorry, I’ve been busy): “What was your take on the first ‘knifing’ , the one of Rudd ?”
I think it’s a very difficult question to answer.
I know people who were close to the action at the time who say that Rudd had more or less completely lost the plot: calling urgent meetings and then not showing up to them, telling people things that he’d been expressly told to be quiet about because he thought they were somebody else, asking people to work all weekend to produce something he needed and then denying on Monday that he’d even asked for it, etc.
The election was coming up and the people who led the coup were worried that, if Rudd remained off the air or even started to get worse, Labor was heading towards opposition. And they felt – rightly as it turned out – that they still had a chance with Gillard.
As you’ll recall, Rudd actually became seriously ill after his removal as PM and didn’t seem fully recovered until some way into 2o11.
So, to sum up, I reckon Gillard and the brains trust behind the coup felt stuck between a rock and a hard place and in the end took what they knew was a very risky path out of the situation.
The idea that Gillard, or Shorten on behalf of Gillard, had been plotting for months and months to seize power from Rudd is just nonsense IMO.
Lets see, why have a huge budget deficit problem- so lets solve it by charging a GST on food for pensioners, children for education and everyone for cancer treatment.
Lets increase the tax that hits the poorest hardest by 50 percent.
And of course not touch or even mention franking credits, negative gearing, family trusts and super rorts.
Sounds fair…..there is nothing ‘automatic’ that means tax reform equals GST reform. Nothing. It is just the latest ideological crusade to punish the poor.
Kakuru: “The term “Neo-Lib(eral)” is about as facile and meaningless as “centrist”, another term they bandy about a lot. I doubt its purveyors have any idea what they mean by this term either.”
I think “centrist” is pretty straightforward: someone in the middle ground of the political debate.
The term I don’t get is the one that people like Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton like to use to describe themselves: “centre-right”. It always makes me want to ask: if you’re “centre-right” then who is just plain old “right”.
I reckon the term “centre-right” should be applied to someone like Turnbull. And, likewise, the likes of Hawke and Keating could reasonably be described as “centre-left”.
Any major tax review will need bi-partisan support so I am not holding my breath. It would need to include GST, franking credits, capital gains, trust structures and superannuation.
GC:’It is just the latest ideological crusade to punish the poor.’
I was surprised that 60% of goods had GST applied. There must be a lot of poor people buying the other 40%.
nath: “Shorten helped roll Gillard because it suited him, because he gained from it, because he wanted it. Because it made sense to him. Rudd would lose, but not as much as Gillard. Which allowed him to be Opposition Leader with at least some chance of winning the 2016 or 2019 election. I mean there are some stupid Labor stooges on here…but at least try to read something intelligent.”
This is not consistent with the account I’ve heard of how it all happened. I don’t deny that Shorten is more driven by ambition and ego even than your average pollie, but I also don’t think he was ever certain that his interests would be better served by Rudd defeating Gillard: eg, like me, I don’t think he was convinced that Labor would do better in the election under Rudd than under Gillard (I still content that, if Rudd and his backers could somehow have been silenced, Gillard was the only leader who might have led them to victory).
What I think did happen with Shorten was that he eventually became convinced that Rudd would inevitably roll Gillard, and he would never have wanted to be on the wrong side of that outcome.
michael
Yes, the election is an electoral ‘life time’ away but it is surprising that this ‘unprecedented time©’ has not seen a leap in support for the Coalition. Or are our pollsters still clinging to the 50/50 security blanket following their election embarrassment ?
Bucephalus
It would seem that is not well understood, or “hazy” even…
Specific to SARS-COV2, there can’t be any such basis until several seasons have been experienced. This is because the “Novel Coronavirus” does seem to be novel, and seems to exhibit novel behaviour.
So, what:
– https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/11/science.abb5793
did was to simulate (perhaps not very well) various scenarios reflecting different parameter values for what are thought to be (the?) important parameters describing these diseases, checking their simulations against known histories of recent virus outbreaks.
Ah, vagaries and empty buzzwords. That’s what’ll save the day. Move along, nothing to see here. The rebound’s path is paved, and it will be significant. 🙂
boerwar @ #519 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 4:31 pm
It’s right. 30% of New Zealanders are anarchists. No PPM for them.
Oh and negative gearing.
Basically we likely can’t maintain the “luxury” lifestyles many of us have become used to. Well not for a few years anyway.
PeeBee: “I was surprised that 60% of goods had GST applied. There must be a lot of poor people buying the other 40%.”
There must be untold numbers of poor people having plastic surgery and paying the fees at top private schools.
davidwh: “Oh and negative gearing…Basically we likely can’t maintain the “luxury” lifestyles many of us have become used to. Well not for a few years anyway.”
Yep, people who don’t own their own houses certainly shouldn’t be allowed the luxury of being able to afford the rents they are charged.
(Cue in briefly from his garden shed with his incomprehensible argument as to why taking away negative gearing will actually make rents fall rather than increase.)
Apart from the link GG posted above, also see this.
Newshub-Reid Research Poll: Overwhelming number of Kiwis back Government’s lockdown decision
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/newshub-reid-research-poll-overwhelming-number-of-kiwis-back-government-s-lockdown-decision.html
Leroy @ #540 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 5:13 pm
Even Kim Jong-on is jealous of her judgement and her popularity.
Shellbell:
I had not heard that, but it’s quite interesting as there is considerable evidence that 14 and under is different to 15-64 (which is different to 65 and over). So, younger children at school is the logical experiment to run.
Older children (over 15) not being at school is politically controversial in Australia (due to the process formerly called matriculation). It is likely to be so in Sweden (or anywhere evidence driven) since age 15-20 is the optimally bad timing for sampling human intellectual performance.
I wonder what Albo’s first reaction was to the NZ polling out today …?