The Australian reports the Coalition has opened a 51-49 lead in the latest Newspoll, after the previous poll three weeks ago recorded a dead heat. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 43%, with Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down two to 10% and One Nation down one to 3%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is down two to 66%, with the disapproval not yet provided; Albanese is down one on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 37%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is all but unchanged at 56-29, compared with 56-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1504. More detail to follow later.
UPDATE: Morrison’s disapproval rating turns out to be up two to 30%. These numbers have been incorporated into the BludgerTrack leadership trends which you can see on the sidebar and in greater detail here. Newspoll has put to respondents the same suite of questions concerning coronavirus in its last three polls, which record soaring confidence in “federal and state governments’ performance” in managing the economic impact (60% satisfied, up 13 points on last time, and 24% dissatisfied, down nine), preparing the health system (up 19 to 78% and down 13 to 15%) and informing Australians about how to protect themselves (up seven to 82% and down seven to 13%).
https://insidestory.org.au/snapback-fiscal-stimulus-hasnt-even-started-yet/
Sir Henry Parkes
says:
Monday, May 18, 2020 at 2:28 pm
I think Bill Shorten and Penny Wong defected to Rudd’s camp with reluctance because they saw a leadership change as the only way the constant leadershit destabilising was going to end. Yes, it meant giving into bullying and intimidation, but that’s often the way in politics.
_________________
Hilarious Shit. Shorten gave in to Rudd’s bullying and intimidation and suddenly helped roll Gillard because he shit himself over Rudd’s powerful machismo.
Shorten helped roll Gillard because it suited him, because he gained from it, because he wanted it. Because it made sense to him. Rudd would lose, but not as much as Gillard. Which allowed him to be Opposition Leader with at least some chance of winning the 2016 or 2019 election.
I mean there are some stupid Labor stooges on here…but at least try to read something intelligent.
lizziesays:
Monday, May 18, 2020 at 2:27 pm
Damn it. Sorry to hear that story.
Take care.
Bucephalus
Thanks. 🙂
Rex Douglas @ #448 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 2:42 pm
I don’t think China gives a rats about any enquiry. Nor would they be frightened of the outcome. The truth is kind of irrelevant here, and they know it. It is all a game of Diplomacy (or perhaps Risk) being played between the big trading nations vying for future supremacy. And what is clear is that China are better at the game than we are. And heaps better than Trump is.
As usual, China is playing ‘go’ while Trump is playing ‘tiddlywinks’. No-one knows what game Morrison thinks he is playing – possibly ‘marbles’.
Nath. I don’t care too much for people who don’t vote Labor, be they Libs or Greens, telling me what the party should do or explaining to me what its history really means.
Rudd was replaced in 2010 because he was a non-consultative leader who MPs feared was leading them to defeat in that year’s election. Gillard was on track to lead Labor back to another majority government, until Rudd started backgrounding and destabilising during the election campaign.
A pattern that continued until he deposed and replaced her.
It’s not about which leader you liked more; it’s about respecting the party’s decision to choose leaders and to get behind them, which is the duty of every ALP member and supporter.
That obviously does not include you Nath.
Sir Henry Parkes, you are an idiot and haven’t read anything about the coup or sought to understand anything beyond the most superficial of reporting. As Paul Keating might say, you are either a poor observer of events, a moron, or a bit of both.
Stick to your Fairy Tale version of events. It suits you.
Beemer we are in agreement. Any sensible civilisation is going to have markets. The better and fairer the markets the better for everyone. My target isn’t markets in the broad it is our current ‘markets’ where the less than 1% control almost all of the wealth through wall street, and its unregulated and consistently quite stupid (ie markets don’t have the brilliant invisible hand they are supposed to have had) behaviour but with the people still getting rich for it, while poverty increases and public goods and services decrease.
Rudd and Shorten clearly were putting their interests above their parties interests during the minority Govt years.
WeWantPaul @ #442 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 2:55 pm
Cowardly or corrupt politicians unwilling to regulate for a fairer and more equal society.
This whole robodebt scheme is extraordinarily bad.
It is the Liberal Party out to fleece their fellow citizens. Like all bullies the Liberal thugs attack the most defenceless and vulnerable.
As far as I know extortion is a crime.
The politicians responsible should be charged and should do time. It is not just extorting money, it exhibited a callous contempt for the their victims, the poorest and most disadvantaged in the community.
The opposition and the media should be raising this appalling behaviour non stop. None of those involved should be able to remain in Parliament.
If they came for the poor and underprivileged this week and got away with it Who would they set their eyes on next week?
That is just patently not true, the labor caucus has been pretty bad at everything for more than 25 years, but they were not stupid enough to believe that.
Nath. I think I am a bit closer to the events of those times than you, given I knew several MPs and their staff and worked to get some of them elected. You are not a party member and have an incurable obsession about Bill Shorten. I don’t know how it is that you were so privy to the workings of the evil faction warlords.
The truth is, Labor MPs deposed Rudd in 2010 and then Gillard in 2013 because they believed that to be in their electoral interests. It really is as simple as that.
Oh, and don’t resort to personal abuse nath. I haven’t so far cast aspersions on your intelligence.
Are we seriously going to restart the RGR wars?
Really?
WeWantPaul @ #446 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 3:03 pm
The Rudd Govt was paralysed. Rudd had to be sacked.
kakuru
The term “Neo-Lib(eral)” is about as facile and meaningless as “centrist”,
————-
Try this:
Neoliberalism or neo-liberalism[1] is the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas associated with laissez-faire economic liberalism and free market capitalism.[2]:7[3] It is generally associated with policies of economic liberalization including privatization, deregulation, globalization, free trade, austerity, and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society;
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victorian-libs-tearing-themselves-apart-as-andrews-soars-20200515-p54tby.html
This is dumb on so many levels it is surprising the brain it came from remembers to breathe.
The last two elections won by an LNP that had more infighting, less stability and greater turnovers in PM than the RGR years of the ALP shows quite clearly it was not the inexcusable infighting that did Labor in. Something else did Labor in. The LNP have won three elections in a row, two of them with more infighting. Only one of them with a PM candidate that could be considered, on a good day, competent.
So Labor only clearly winning one election in 25 years at the federal level, and that election being Howard losing and Rudd not stuffing it up, rather than any tactical genius on the ALP side, suggests what really does Labor in, is something else. Something deep and something persisting.
It is a very flawed premise.
But then to go on and start the narrative with Gillard in the big chair and everyone supposed to fall into line, when the only way she got into the big chair in the first place was ‘inexcusable infighting’ is just to put a layer of extra stupid over a fundamentally flawed foundation.
Always good to see the RGR wars breakout here, sadly I have some rusty nails to stick under my fingernails that I need to see to. I’m sure I’ll miss some new brilliant insights and takes, but well that is a risk I’m prepared to take.
On the one hand the senate was a very bad senate for any Labor leader. There was a fundamental truth that any Labor leader would struggle to get anything through that wasn’t ALP – LNP bipartisan.
What Labor needed was a plan to get to the inevitable election with a platform and record that demanded a second term. What they did was invalidate their own first term and wandered into that election scared and confused. It don’t think it was at all necessary, but even if it was, it was done wrong. And if Rudd was so bad why did they ever make him leader?
It is just a rolling cluster of voluntary stupidity, a bit like hanging around here for an RGR war. Have a great afternoon.
have a good day, WeWantPaul. -regards, a.v.
The big problem for a Albanese and the leadership team , appeasing the media it is not working , it will never work while majority of the Australian media is controlled by a foreign influence media tycoon , who is the propaganda arm for the liberal and national partys.
Labor needs a strong leadership team who is not frighten to take on the media and stop any foreign media tycoon or media outlets from being dominate influence in Australian politics.
The notion that China is bullying for bullying’s sake is entertaining.
Xi’s initial responses to the Virus were similar to Morrison’s during the Fires: slow, uncertain, incompetent and deadly to some members of the public, to the economy and to citizen’s faith in their leadership.
Social media on both Xi and of Morrison were scathing.
Xi’s attitude to information management is the same as Morrison’s: If you don’t like the answers don’t let anyone ask the questions.
And if they do ask the questions, make sure you control the inputs and the results.
But Xi’s control over information is the same as Morrison’s – it weakens rapidly beyond the nation’s borders.
Xi has major personal political skin in the Inquiry.
Which is why Xi is willing to do material damage to his own economy by way of boycotting the cheapest and best barley, iron, and whatever.
IMO Morrison’s cackhanded choice of a Xi-sensitive issue is where this whole thing seriously went pear-shaped.
Don’t get me wrong. This is a protracted and real national struggle that we have to engage in. The way to do so was to get the economy and the polity ready over time.
And not light the fuse when we happen to be sitting on several kegs of economic black powder.
“ABC News can confirm the shortlist contains four bidders: private investment firm Bain Capital, private equity firm BGH Capital, US aviation investor Indigo Partners and global investor Cyrus Capital Partners.”
“Final bids are due on June 12.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-18/shortlist-of-four-suitors-to-take-over-virgin-australia/12258458
The Soccer Mum from Queensland isn’t buying Virgin – just like I said she wouldn’t.
There will be waves of economic hits. The hits will not be linear. The hits will not be simple. The hits will not all be apparent on day 1 of the economy being re-opened.
We are not going to do Morrison’s Snap Back.
We are not going back to where we were.
Around the world millions of people who have lost their jobs to the Virus will never work again.
Global digitization just got the mother of all boosts.
Many of the trends and changes will not be reversed.
Re all this ra ra ra about an inquiry into covid 19. Surely after EVERY outbreak such as this there would be an inquiry and review as a SOP ?
Buce
If you are referring to Pala you may wish to reconsider your chosen terminology in the light of additional information: Pala would have liked to have children but she could not.
‘poroti says:
Monday, May 18, 2020 at 3:32 pm
Re all this ra ra ra about an inquiry into covid 19. Surely after EVERY outbreak such as this there would be an inquiry and review as a SOP ?’
Um…
I look forward to the international inquiry into the Vietnam War, the Iraq War and the Afghanistan War. They killed far, far more than Covid and in each case trashed an economy totally.
I am still waiting for the UK to initiate an inquiry into their biggest ever military trashing in Malaya and Singapore…
I look forward to the results of the various live animal trade inquiries announced by a succession of Coalition ag ministers over the past seven eyars.
And so it goes.
BW,
I would have thought the loss of face by China by being or becoming an unreliable trading partner is by far the biggest threat to Xi and China.
That is the leverage Morrison has.
Bucephalus
Mostly he just gives up valuable things unilaterally: strengthening China; weakening the US; confusing US allies and giving Russia scope to make mischief (paid for by China).
On the trade front, mainly Mr Trump has buggered up (literally up) the input costs of certain sectors of the US domestic economy. Since these sectors complete with China the Chinese are happy for him to keep doing this; they are not at all unhappy with him in relation to trade, since they can play him into almost anything they want.
It might be getting close to time for him (again) to announce some sort of victory on the trade front, and it will then be lovey dubby with Xi again: make ups are such wonderful things – maybe the tender moment of reconciliation could be televised on his new App?
Back when they were new fangled.
…………………………………………………
Originally published in June 1899
Electric Street Cars Are More Efficient than Horses
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/electric-street-cars-are-more-efficient-than-horses/
Buce:’“A group of mountain cattlemen and women have taken to Victoria’s High Country in a final, dramatic bid to save their cherished brumbies.”
I just don’t get this. I like horses but these are introduced pests that need to be removed. It needs to be done as humanely as possible but that may include having to shoot some of them.’
I think shooting the mountain cattlemen and women is an over reaction. Why not just shoot the horses?
But seriously, I have a relative that is an ex farmer. He and his mates do culling work for graziers in the outback free of charge. The graziers get a permit to say cull 600 kangaroos and give him a call. He and his mates go out but don’t pay particular attention to how many they cull. Under this particular permit he shot 2,000 shotgun cartridges in the weekend. He rarely misses.
boerwarsays:
Monday, May 18, 2020 at 3:33 pm
Given the sledges against Conservative Politicians on this site I’m pretty comfortable with where I’m at.
The money “recovered” just covered the cost of robodebt.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/22/robodebt-scheme-costs-government-almost-as-much-as-it-recovers
and now it looks like they are going o have to refund 1/2 billion dollars and cover legal costs.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/18/robodebt-centrelink-to-issue-hundreds-of-thousands-of-class-action-notices-for-trial
1/2 billion dollars pissed down the drain. It takes a special skill to be as incompetent as the Liberal D team.
boerwar
I had the impression the health people at place like WHO and the like after every pandemic looked in to what happened and why. To see what can be done better and to prepare for future pandemics. Results being things like virtually every country adopting an influenza pandemic plan of action in the mid to late noughties.
PeeBeesays:
Monday, May 18, 2020 at 3:44 pm
Shotguns for Roos? That’s very strange. Normally a Rifle is used for that. MAybe that’s why he needed so many shells.
porotisays:
Monday, May 18, 2020 at 3:47 pm
“I had the impression the health people at place like WHO and the like after every pandemic looked in to what happened and why.”
That’d be the WHO that won’t mention the name of Taiwan let alone allow it membership because of some strange reason – apparently Trinidad & Tobago have something against Taiwan, I think.
They’ll definitely get to the bottom of the cause of the original infection and what measures China took – seeing how China is so very transparent and all.
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, May 18, 2020 at 3:35 pm
BW,
I would have thought the loss of face by China by being or becoming an unreliable trading partner is by far the biggest threat to Xi and China.
That is the leverage Morrison has.’
Apparently not. China has been engaged in bullying individual nations by way of actual or threatened trade boycotts for quite a long time. In this case the ‘reliability’ is the willingness to dish out some real punishment if the threats or demands are not addressed to China’s satisfaction.
My reading is that Morrison has some bits of leverage:
1. Labor is in lock step so there is a united national front.
2. Morrison’s Coalition partner is in (public) lock step so there is a united national front. In the background ag industry leaders will be screaming a la Mundo.
3. After playing some very public silly buggers, Australia’s main mineral moguls to China are now doing STFU. On the face of it this means they have now been pushed into silence by Morrison. Given that Morrison’s Office is riddled with ex mineral industry employees, I imagine that the Moguls will have laid some lines in the sand for Morrison. Very, very risky for Morrison AND for Australia.
4. There is a gaggle of nations keen to do some blame shifting onto China.
5. Trade boycotts generally hurt the boycotter as well as the boycottee. This means that Xi will be ramping up some internal enemies among the people who are hurt by the boycotts.
6. The Chinese would be well aware that there is a significant level of sinophobia in Australia that Morrison could choose to unleash and harness should he so wish to do. IMO, he is not doing this ATM. But there is potential.
IMO, having cocked it up by kicking it off, Morrison is now doing most of the right things but Birmingham is a weak link.
Buce, they prefer shotguns so they don’t shoot each other. The cartridges contain 9 pellets and shot at close range. They use quad bikes to close in on them and it gets chaotic. Pigs are a little trickier as they are smart and use gullies and undergrowth for cover.
Although, this cover is being removed by goats, which, along with cattle and sheep, are not culled.
‘poroti says:
Monday, May 18, 2020 at 3:47 pm
boerwar
I had the impression the health people at place like WHO and the like after every pandemic looked in to what happened and why. To see what can be done better and to prepare for future pandemics. Results being things like virtually every country adopting an influenza pandemic plan of action in the mid to late noughties.’
In which case Morrison should have left it to WHO’s international leadership role to do what it always does.
The unfortunate face is that Morrison chose to kick off Australia’s poking Xi in the eye with a burnt stick straight after the news broke that Morrison and Trump had had a friendly phone call.
This gave Xi the perfect opportunity to strike Australia: target the weak link lackey.
There is nothing that Trump can or would do to help Australia. Fuck, he doesn’t even care about the US.
New South Wales is the only jurisdiction in the world which has passed a law forbidding the killing of large feral animals in their premier national park.
So we have 25,000 feral horses fucking up Kosciusko National Park.
To make matters worse, Morrison was so slack on the fires that much of the Park has been burned out and the horses are now concentrated on the few unburnt spots and trampling them into rubbish.
Disgusting lack of stewardship.
Morrison, Berejiklian and Barilaro should hang their heads in shame.
sb
Have you done OHS risk assessments?
I can safely walk across a road, but at work I wear hivis and often use traffic control. I can safely walk up to the edge of a roofline but at work I put on a harness.
No. The ‘view’ was that it was completely safe to allow kids that had just returned from Wuhan to attend schools. This was the first week of February. This is wrong. It is clearly wrong. Everything that was known about the virus then and now shows it was reckless. Parents, the well researched media, schools, private schools… everyone else could see the blinding obvious. But Dan Tehan said it was safe, SA fell into line and schools allowed returnees from Wuhan to attend school. A 17yo could literally get off a plane from Wuhan in early Feb and walk straight into a 25 student classroom.
It didnt last long because they had a humiliating backdown.
Then, astoundingly, they made absolutely no effort to start installing equipment and procedures in schools to reduce the risk as cases started appearing in the state. None. Time went on, the backlash increased and they finally started doing some work on hygiene at schools. It was nearing the end of term and it was too little too late. Always behind, they suddenly found social distancing at schools was easy as parents had taken their kids out.
Then the loss of faith that happened in April. I will post it again….
SAHealth wont let you build a septic system on 10 hectares of land, but they were letting people returning from a epidemic into schools without any solid evidence to show it was safe but ample evidence to show it was riddled with risk. So, no, not a difference of view or opinion, it was a failure of health and safety governance. If they dont admit that (call it a near miss) and investigate how it happened then it will happen again.
boerwar
Iron ore is a biggie. Twiggy and Gina will be very ‘lerted’ if not alarmed. S.America and perhaps Africa might become more favored. A good way for China to curry favor in those places .
7. china makes up shortfalls in australian beef & barley from other countries, like russia & the usa. this was news last friday. still waiting for that phone call? still waiting for a response to that “request” to front that committee? -a.v.
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-steps-up-warnings-buys-us-barley-russian-beef-20200515-p54tag
Robocop is just another example of the most corrupt Federal government since Federation in action.
It is illegal. It is killing people by harrassing them.
Do Morrison, Robert and Porter stop it?
No way. Screwing ordinary people is core business for this bunch of nasties.
The U.S. economy could shrink by upwards of 30% in the second quarter but will avoid a Depression-like economic plunge over the longer term, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told “60 Minutes” in an interview aired Sunday.
The central bank chief also conceded that jobless numbers will look a lot like they did during the 1930s, when the rate peaked out at close to 25%,
However, he said the nature of the current distress coupled with the dynamism of the U.S. and the strength of its financial system should pave the way for a significant rebound.
Asked by host Scott Pelley whether unemployment would be 20% or 25%, Powell said, “I think there’re a range of perspectives. But those numbers sound about right for what the peak may be.” Pressed on whether the U.S. is headed for a “second depression,” he replied, “I don’t think that’s a likely outcome at all. There’re some very fundamental differences.”
In a part of the interview that did not air, Powell said shrinkage of U.S. economic growth “could easily be in the 20s or 30s,” according to a CBS transcript. He said that growth could return in the third quarter.
“I think there’s a good chance that there’ll be positive growth in the third quarter. And I think it’s a reasonable expectation that there’ll be growth in the second half of the year,” Powell said. “I would say though we’re not going to get back to where we were quickly. We won’t get back to where we were by the end of the year. That’s unlikely to happen.”
BW,
China have not being playing fair on Trade for years. So, the spying, stealing of intellectual property and thuggery has to be called out and stopped.
I disagree about Morrison cocking it up. I agree that Labor are in support but will quibble about the Messaging. As for the vested interests, they’ll just have to cop it in the short to medium term.
I reckon Morrison has the political, social and moral authority to hold the line on this issue. Speaking honestly and openly to Power is a good way to build our credibility as a Nation. Buckling now will only hurt future generations of Australia.
p
Australia does not do a long term national economic strategy.
China does.
One of the elements of the strategy is to diversify sources of imports.
Then buy them if possible.
So Brazil is a significant opportunity to diversify iron ore supplies.
The Brazilians built super ore carriers to improve their margins and increase their competitiveness.
The first one arrives at a Chinese port and it doesn’t fit.
After some months a deal is announced. China has bought into Brazilian ore mining AND in the super ore carriers.
Suddenly the comrades announced that the super sized ore carrier could fit into a Chinese port after all!
Morrison is a mug at this game. His strategy is to gishgallop the 24/7 news cycle with bloviating bullshit. Birmingham whinging pathetically and publicly about how his Oppo won’t answer his phone call is below pathetic.
GG:
China under Emperor Xi is as it has been since the Han dynasty grabbed power after the Warring States period – Han ruling the rest. The only thing that matters in China is what the Han think.
Remember that Han was one of the losers in the Warring States conflict, but they grabbed power from Qin (who were the winning Warring State) after only about 15 years (and only two Qin emperors). By controlling the definition of Chinese culture and by ensuring that “Han Chinese” means about 90% of Chinese (so they are numerically unthreatened, but have enough minorities around that the Government can engage in some public bullying whenever they get into trouble) , they have effectively run the place ever since.
Northern Han are likely to be quite embarrassed about the culinary behaviour of the Southerners (“they eat everything except planes and automobiles down there”) but it would not be wise for a foreign government to highlight this at all, since in the Chinese political calculus all foreigners rank below all Han, including below Southern Han and they will circle the wagons. Engagement with international trade is purely transactional (hence why they run rings around Mr Trump – he is purely transactional too, but unlike him, the Chinese are good at it). Historically China has eschewed international trade almost completely (infra dig.) and they’ll take a 20% economic hit as long as the cultural lever is preserved.
porotisays:
Monday, May 18, 2020 at 4:01 pm
“S.America and perhaps Africa might become more favored.”
Neither have the same high quality ore as we have nor are as close.
Yes, you can use the lower quality ore but there are costs and technical issues (I can’t recall exactly what they are) that mean Australian high quality ore is preferred.