Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling

As the contours of the Eden-Monaro by-election start to take shape, a new poll finds respondents highly satisfied with antipodean governments’ handling of coronavirus, and mindful of the less happy situation elsewhere in the anglosphere.

The Guardian reports Essential Research’s latest weekly round of coronavirus polling includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison’s approval at 64%, gaining a further five points after his 18-point hike a month ago. Anthony Albanese is down two to 42% — we must await the full report later today to see their disapproval ratings. Morrison holds a 50-25 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 46-27 last time (UPDATE: Full report here; both are at 27% disapproval, which is a four point drop in Morrison’s case and a two point drop in Albanese’s).

The most interesting of the latest tranche of coronavirus questions relate to other countries’ handling of the crisis, with 79% rating New Zealand’s response very good or good, whereas (if I’m reading this correctly) the United States’ response is rated very poor or poor by 71%, and the United Kingdom is similarly rated by 48%. Another question finds 57% support for maintaining Newstart either at its current level “after the current crisis passes” or aligning it with the rate for single pensioners, with only 28% in favour of returning it to its earlier level.

The poll also finds growing appetite for easing restrictions, with 37% now saying it is too soon to do so, down from 49% a fortnight ago, and 36% wanting restrictions eased over the next month or two, but still only 10% wanting them gone as soon as possible. Respondents were also presented with a series of propositions about school closures, which found 45% sayig schools should reopen, “half” saying schools should teach students remotely until the outbreak passes, and 41% saying they would keep their children at home even if schools reopened.

The latest news on the by-election front is that NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro has announced he will not run in Eden-Monaro, and Senator Jim Molan has likewise withdrawn his intention to pursue Liberal preselection, with both allowing a clear run for Andrew Constance, NSW Transport Minister and member for the seat of Bega, most of which is within Eden-Monaro. The by-election now looms as a straightforward contest between Labor and Liberal, with the Nationals sure to be only a minor presence in Barilaro’s absence, if indeed they run at all.

Constance was the subject of sympathetic media attention after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the summer bushfires, a particularly helpful asset given the federal goverment’s handling of the fires loomed as its main liability in the campaign. He revealed in March that he would be quitting politics when the bushfire recovery was complete, albeit without making clear when that might be. The by-election that will now be required in Bega will thus be less disruptive than one in Barilaro’s seat of Monaro would have been, and the seat is also at less risk of being lost by the government. No indication so far as I can see as to who might be in the running in Bega.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,512 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling”

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  2. steve davis @ #3448 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 9:07 pm

    Coronavirus: Unlike Labor, unions, Scott Morrison is for the workers.

    Gerard Henderson

    Absoutely shite from Henderson. Smoko just put a million workers on the dole.
    With friends of the workers like that who needs enemies.

    And wait until those workers get royally shafted by SfM after Jobkeeper is withdrawn.

  6. “and with our borders shut for the foreseeable future”

    I reckon we’ll keep them shut until the next state election. That should get the ALP about 90% of the first preferences.

  14. Yabba and Poroti, I can recall getting hold of some industrial alcohol while at uni. We redistilled it through some glassware with thermometers and a spiral of glass in a tube. The output was reputed to be pure ethanol. It definitely tasted better than the stuff we started with.

    While experimenting and tasting various mixes we unfortunately spilt some on a table and it caught a light. Lovely blue flame, that was quiet spectacular as it dripped off the table. One fellow in bare feet was not giving this growing burning puddle his full attention, until it reached his feet – that seemed to focus his mind in no time flat.

  16. I was speaking to a doctor today and she said the doctors she knows don’t want to be regarded as heros. She said doctors are just doing a job they are paid for doing. They just want to work in a safe work environment.

    She feels that people are using words like ‘hero’ to brush over the fact they have not prepared for a safe workplace and hope doctors will just cope it sweet of injured at work.

  18. So, last weekend it was Tehan attacking Dan Andrews…and didn’t that end well?

    This weekend, the baton for attacking Andrews appears to have been passed to that obnoxious slimebag otherwise known as Freedom Boy Wilson.

    The Libs are really chafing at having to do the co-operative national cabinet thing wot?? 🙂

    They are going to revert to their normal, nasty, born to rule, economic illiteracy soon as they can i reckon. They must be busting to end Jobkeeper and the roll back the increase to Jobseeker just soon as they can.

  20. Finally.. confirmation of zero cases for Tasmania today.
    Whoever maintains covid19data.com.au must go watch the movie first.

    I don’t want to jinx it but its significant that yet again, the only cases recorded were in NSW and Victoria.
    Queensland is still touch and go. Tasmania is a bit safer.

    Lets see what Victoria looks like after their cluster burns out.

  21. lizzie says:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 5:54 pm

    Virologist Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, fell ill with COVID-19 in mid-March. He spent a week in a hospital and has been recovering at his home in London since. Climbing a flight of stairs still leaves him breathless.

    ——————-

    Great article Answers a lot of questions which I hadn’t seen addressed before.

    If reading this doesn’t cure those “open it up” clowns then nothing will.

  23. There is a growing blase attitude about home distillation among certain people. Professionally manufactured home stills are readily available and an increasing number of people seem to be producing their own spirits.

    It is worth pointing out that it remains totally illegal (with good reasons) to distill ANY volume of alcohol without a licence:

    https://www.ato.gov.au/Business/Excise-and-excise-equivalent-goods/Alcohol-excise/Spirits-and-other-excisable-beverages/Stills-and-distillation/

  24. Mavis
    “I too recall when Santamaria was almost compulsorily viewing, with him exuding plausible explanations to corundums.”
    Were they rubies or sapphires? 😁

  26. “I too recall when Santamaria was almost compulsorily viewing”

    I think my parents had the wisdom not to expose me to such things..

  27. Tonight’s chat reminded me of next-door neighbours in Coburg in the 1950’s. Their name was Santamaria, but at that stage I had no idea of the possibilities. I was told that they distilled grappa in the back shed, naturally not approved by my father (Methodist parson)

  28. PeeBee says:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 9:37 pm

    I was speaking to a doctor today and she said the doctors she knows don’t want to be regarded as heros. She said doctors are just doing a job they are paid for doing. They just want to work in a safe work environment.

    She feels that people are using words like ‘hero’ to brush over the fact they have not prepared for a safe workplace and hope doctors will just cope it sweet of injured at work

    ———————————————————

    I’ve always felt that too many Order of Australia gongs are given out to people for just doing their day job.

    This is different. These people are just as worthy of medals and decorations as any of our serving military.

    They are deployed every day in a hostile, dangerous environment which could take their life, protecting their fellow citizens. If that doesn’t qualify their work as heroic, I don’t know what would.

    The least we owe them is a safe working environment.

  29. I think we’ll put this down as a “No” from McGowan when it comes to Scrott’s “Virus Victory Vibes”. Guess he didn’t pay attention toe the local media “demented plutocrat” . How sad.
    …………………………………………..
    McGowan: WA ‘won’t listen’ to eastern states pressure over hard border restrictions
    https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/mcgowan-wa-won-t-listen-to-eastern-states-pressure-over-hard-border-restrictions-20200508-p54r2s.html

  30. “Queensland’s Deputy Premier and Treasurer has announced she is standing aside from her ministerial duties during an investigation launched by the state’s corruption watchdog.” .. another reason why I have had to vote Green in Queensland … Anna Bligh, Campbell Newman, Anna Palaszfuk, Joh .. may as well bring back Gordon Chalk .. sighs …

  31. Very unusual license.

    # Terms and Conditions for access to COVIDSafe App code
    By accessing the App Code I accept and agree to the following terms:

    1. If I distribute the App Code to anyone else, I will ensure these terms are provided to them and are not deleted.
    2. I agree to access the App Code for the purpose of obtaining information about the COVIDSafe App only.
    3. I understand and agree that the App Code is provided on an as is where is basis, that the App Code may be updated
    over time, and that the DTA and the Commonwealth have no liability whatsoever in connection with my access to or use of the App Code.

    4. I agree to stop all access and use of the App Code if requested by the DTA.
    5. I will not use the App Code for any product development purposes.
    6. I will promptly report to the DTA on any actual or potential security vulnerabilities I become aware of in respect of the COVIDSafe App.
    7. I am responsible for any costs of third party claims associated with my access to the App Code, and must pay those claims on request.
    8. I understand and agree that:

    **a.** the DTA will collect information about me and my access to the App Code, and any feedback, comments, or other information
    that I post on GitHub in connection with the App Code (and I understand that this information may also be seen or accessed by other
    users of GitHub who have been given access to the App Code);

    **b.** the DTA may use that information for the purposes of managing my access to the App Code, and to consider
    any feedback, comments or other information that I provide in relation to the App Code or the COVIDSafe App;

    **c.** the DTA may disclose that information to other Commonwealth agencies and their contractors for the purposes
    of improving the App Code or the COVIDSafe App, or as required for public accountability and reporting purposes,
    but DTA will de-identify personal information before disclosure wherever reasonable and practicable (GitHub,
    a company based in the US, may also handle your personal information in accordance with the GitHub Terms and Conditions); and

    **d.** further information about how DTA will handle personal information, and my rights to complain or access
    or correct my personal information, is available at DTA’s Privacy Policy.

  34. Blobbit I’m waiting for people who have more time than me to go through it in forensic detail.
    There’s a couple of bits I’ve spotted in it that have given me pause for thought but I won’t comment now.

  35. “There’s a couple of bits I’ve spotted in it that have given me pause for thought but I won’t comment now.”

    Go on…

  37. “frednksays:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 10:35 pm
    Ummm
    It does not work as bluetrace does.”

    To quote Homer, dumb it down for me. What’s it doing that’s different or concerning.

  39. The last programming I did was with Delphi nearly 20 years ago. To say I’m rusty would be being generous.
    I did wonder if the Darwin reference had some hidden meaning 😵

  41. Anyone seen a good take down on Twitter then? All I can find is some bitching about the way the coffee was committed to GitHub, and the endless comments on the list of states that missed Tasmania – even though that not of code isn’t used.

  42. Greensborough Growler @ #3371 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 6:29 pm

    Player One @ #3357 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 6:15 pm

    Assantdj @ #3350 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 5:37 pm

    Nobody can claim that Morrison and his pack of media supporters aren’t smart.

    No, they are not smart. If there is a second wave of infections set off by Morrison’s deliberate campaign of undermining and misinformation, the State premiers will not be slow to sheet the blame home to where it belongs.

    So, now you are influenced by me.

    What part of consistency with Peggy do you agree with?

    I respect any poster who posts with genuine conviction.

    You, not so much 🙁

  44. Bushfire Bill @ #2047 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 8:42 pm

    Hit the nail on the head again, Blobbit…

    I’m waiting for the expert comments here on the source code, now it’s been posted.

    No-one here knows a fuckin’ thing about the source code, or how to analyse it line by line.

    All the posturing, the “I’m in IT and I know it won’t work”, and the “My battery life is the most important thing in the world” bullshit goes down the tubes as of today.

    They got their source code, now they have to tell us why it presages “Nazi Germany Meets 1984”.

    I have been writing code since 1963 (Fortran IVd back then), and have written a few hundred lines today, in MS Command language, HTML/Postscript, bloody VBA and a Linear/Integer Program definition, building and solution language that I wrote myself, called Fred. It (Fred) was originally witten in Fortran, but now sits on Delphi which in turn was written in Pascal. I know seven languages that I can easily recall, and could brush up on a few more.

    I know, from ordinary physics, and the nature of bluetooth itself, that there is basically no hope that the app is going to be able to identify which of the vast array of bluetooth signal emitters are within a couple of metres with any accuracy. I am absolutely certain that the analysis section of the total package has not been properly tested on actual live data, because they haven’t had any. I also know from bitter experience, over many years, that testing and bug fixing takes twice as long as initial coding on any halfway complex programming project.

    I believe that there is no way that this system has been made ready for use in the timeframe that they have had to prepare it. All IMHO of course. We shall see.

  46. yabba

    From what I see of the code its storing an ID, signal strength info, some information on the type/model of the phone that’s being contacted, timestamp and a bit of housekeeping.

    I don’t think its doing any local filtering.

    However the bluetooth environment might mean it doesn’t see weaker (more distant) phones – depending on how cluttered the spectrum is.

  48. “Its part of the user interface and I’m not sure what the business logic is behind it.”

    I can’t help. What’s the concern?

  49. CC Bed and cryptic. Tomorrow out. May look later on, depending on client pressure. I know that the Android Bluetooth API varies a lot depending on version, in particular wrt locations, permissions etc. There is a monstrous maze to be worked through. Is there a Kotlin version? Later.

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