Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling

As the contours of the Eden-Monaro by-election start to take shape, a new poll finds respondents highly satisfied with antipodean governments’ handling of coronavirus, and mindful of the less happy situation elsewhere in the anglosphere.

The Guardian reports Essential Research’s latest weekly round of coronavirus polling includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison’s approval at 64%, gaining a further five points after his 18-point hike a month ago. Anthony Albanese is down two to 42% — we must await the full report later today to see their disapproval ratings. Morrison holds a 50-25 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 46-27 last time (UPDATE: Full report here; both are at 27% disapproval, which is a four point drop in Morrison’s case and a two point drop in Albanese’s).

The most interesting of the latest tranche of coronavirus questions relate to other countries’ handling of the crisis, with 79% rating New Zealand’s response very good or good, whereas (if I’m reading this correctly) the United States’ response is rated very poor or poor by 71%, and the United Kingdom is similarly rated by 48%. Another question finds 57% support for maintaining Newstart either at its current level “after the current crisis passes” or aligning it with the rate for single pensioners, with only 28% in favour of returning it to its earlier level.

The poll also finds growing appetite for easing restrictions, with 37% now saying it is too soon to do so, down from 49% a fortnight ago, and 36% wanting restrictions eased over the next month or two, but still only 10% wanting them gone as soon as possible. Respondents were also presented with a series of propositions about school closures, which found 45% sayig schools should reopen, “half” saying schools should teach students remotely until the outbreak passes, and 41% saying they would keep their children at home even if schools reopened.

The latest news on the by-election front is that NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro has announced he will not run in Eden-Monaro, and Senator Jim Molan has likewise withdrawn his intention to pursue Liberal preselection, with both allowing a clear run for Andrew Constance, NSW Transport Minister and member for the seat of Bega, most of which is within Eden-Monaro. The by-election now looms as a straightforward contest between Labor and Liberal, with the Nationals sure to be only a minor presence in Barilaro’s absence, if indeed they run at all.

Constance was the subject of sympathetic media attention after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the summer bushfires, a particularly helpful asset given the federal goverment’s handling of the fires loomed as its main liability in the campaign. He revealed in March that he would be quitting politics when the bushfire recovery was complete, albeit without making clear when that might be. The by-election that will now be required in Bega will thus be less disruptive than one in Barilaro’s seat of Monaro would have been, and the seat is also at less risk of being lost by the government. No indication so far as I can see as to who might be in the running in Bega.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,512 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling”

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  1. https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx#increased

    Interesting that the areas now being considered for increased surveillance are all basically on the corridor from the inner west to Penrith and to Liverpool..

    Areas for increased testing and surveillance
    Blacktown Local Government Area
    Canada Bay Local Government Area
    Cumberland Local Government Area
    Inner West Local Government Area
    Liverpool Local Government Area
    Parramatta Local Government Area
    Penrith Local Government Area

  2. Assantdj @ #3350 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 5:37 pm

    Nobody can claim that Morrison and his pack of media supporters aren’t smart. McGowan has not changed the restrictions in WA yet but with the papers and media reporters all blanket bombing the population with the message that the restrictions are lifted, it is not surprising that people are out and about.
    This of course is good for Morrison, he gets the economy moving and if cases sky rocket the smaller announcement that people are to listen to the state premiers will be aired repeatedly to protect Morrison from the blame.

    The senior Premiers Gladys and Andrews seeem quite relaxed about prolonging Morrison’s pain.

  3. “McGowan has not changed the restrictions in WA yet”

    Well sort of. If anything WA went slightly early, increasing groups back up to 10 and reopening national parks.

    Home opens allowed again in the last week or so.

  4. Virologist Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, fell ill with COVID-19 in mid-March. He spent a week in a hospital and has been recovering at his home in London since. Climbing a flight of stairs still leaves him breathless.

    Piot, who grew up in Belgium, was one of the discoverers of the Ebola virus in 1976 and spent his career fighting infectious diseases. He headed the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS between 1995 and 2008 and is currently a coronavirus adviser to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. But his personal confrontation with the new coronavirus was a life-changing experience, Piot says.

    This interview took place on 2 May. Piot’s answers have been edited and translated from Dutch:
    …
    Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives. The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more questions arise. We are learning while we are sailing. That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control. That’s very unfair.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19

  5. From ever-impressive Blobbit:

    Loving all the people complaining about how many people are at shopping centres today….based on their personal observation.

    Comment of the year!

  6. Absolutely no surprises in WA.
    Action was early and appropriate.
    The State was closed off from the rest of Oz some weeks ago (for most) and Perth and the other areas were islands within islands.
    The damned cruise ships turned the paint from white to grey but they are all gone now.
    The only selfish set of divas are the AFL footballers and their monied backers who want Optus Stadium up and running and full of crowds…….by last week if possible.
    McGowan has not been swayed by Stokes and all the The West can throw at him in self-interest and good on him……………..
    I expect intra-State travel to be freed up tomorrow though perhaps not as far as the whole of the Kimberley – despite the whinges from the Grey Nomads…..
    Some eating/drinking places also given options I would expect as well
    I suspect most will be satisfied with this for the time being….
    The canaries in the mine, many schools and their kids and teachers, have been back for some days now and attendances have been upward of 60%.
    NO schools back in the UK yet, nor expected to be for a little while yet, by comparison.

  7. Assantdj @ #3350 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 5:37 pm

    Nobody can claim that Morrison and his pack of media supporters aren’t smart.

    No, they are not smart. If there is a second wave of infections set off by Morrison’s deliberate campaign of undermining and misinformation, the State premiers will not be slow to sheet the blame home to where it belongs.

  8. Morrison should have waited until Trump’s ill-advised early relaxation social experiment had a chance to show its merit or otherwise.

  9. Bushfire Bill

    From ever-impressive Blobbit:

    Loving all the people complaining about how many people are at shopping centres today….based on their personal observation.

    Comment of the year!

    Being a slow learner , could you explain why on earth you awarded such a prestigious title to that? People did their normal weekly shopping and noticed larger crowds and the lack of observing social distancing. The lack of observing the “rules” seemed to be the thrust of most of the grumbles. Something that is a concern. Could it be Bludgers only shop where people have stopped observing social distancing or could it be there is a concerning general change in behaviour ?
    Something has happened, some message “went out” .Last week I commented that it was as if someone had declared an end to restrictions , such was the difference I saw from the previous weeks when it came to social distancing at the shops. Was it somehow ‘wrong’ of me to comment because I went to buy food ?

  11. “BKsays:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 6:18 pm
    Morrison should have waited until Trump’s ill-advised early relaxation social experiment had a chance to show its merit or otherwise.”

    The situations in the US with growing cases and here in Australia are quite different. It would take be impossible to draw any reasonable conclusions from what happens in the US with still growing case numbers, compared to here.

  12. I’ve been thinking about how heroic our health workers have been putting themselves in such danger to care for the infected.

    We really should have some sort of lasting acknowledgement of their service, shouldn’t we …?

    Any suggestions ?

  13. BK says: Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 6:18 pm

    Morrison should have waited until Trump’s ill-advised early relaxation social experiment had a chance to show its merit or otherwise.

    Scotty from Marketing has to show the world that Scotty from Marketing is the bestest and how good is Scotty from Marketing because he’s doing it before The Trump so Scotty from Marketing is even betterer than The Donald. How good is that.

  14. RD

    I for one am encouraged that there’s a Labor leader who is not for capitulation to the careless. Andrews is in a league of his own.

    That is another way to put it. I have not expressed an opinion either way (Do I hear howls?)

    I asked legitimate questions and points re Andrews in the context of:

    1. Andrews’ refusal to, in lockstep with the Liberals, to abolish upper house group voting tickets, despite both parties mouthing intentions to do so before the 2014 state election. For purely political reasons to “destroy the Greens at the ballot box”, in lockstep with the Murdoch media.

    2. Andrews’ refusal to set up an independent, multiparty oversight committee as other jurisdictions here and overseas have done.

    3. His stance on Mother’s Day visits with Victoria the only state prohibiting such visits.

    Three examples that speak to his management style…. eschewing transparency and democratic processes, as well as utter belief he ‘knows best’.

    Hypothetically, if NSW had a Labor state government, Victoria a Liberal state government and federally, a Labor government and the very same road maps to recovery had been put out by the respective governments, the barracking and sledging would be reversed.

  16. “Was it somehow ‘wrong’ of me to comment because I went to buy food ?”

    Not particularly. I’m pretty sure though that someone else world have been having exactly the same discussion – I went out shopping and there were so many people – just that you would have been that extra person.

    If you want a deep philosophical point then it’s that we all contribute to social distancing. Your presence there just made it harder for others to do their distancing.

    Not that you should look for for meaning, it was just a cheap shot.

  17. lizzie

    Its something the media never talks about. Your risk of being damaged is far higher.
    Something the economists don’t talk about either. The cost of having a lot of damaged people.
    There are real health problems associated with unemployment etc. I get it. But then the argument should be about why we as a society don’t have a UBI or JG or both – which would reduce a lot of the mental health and other medical costs in society. However the damage done by covid will be felt for decades.

    We had several thousand cases. Had we closed our borders sooner, and locked down sooner (contrary to economic advice) we’d have had several hundred. And all it takes for us to be right where we were in mid February is to keep easing restrictions, ignoring factors like dumb luck and then suddenly an outbreak occurs, it multiplies to the hundreds before we get our act together.. and..

  19. “We really should have some sort of lasting acknowledgement of their service, shouldn’t we …?”

    Pay rise? Build a new hospital in each state?

    Most of them would probably appreciate a pay rise.

  20. Not from me Pegasus.

    Had NSW a Labor government and it had acted the way the current government has, I’d be just as critical of its less than stellar handling of the virus.

  21. Player One @ #3357 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 6:15 pm

    Assantdj @ #3350 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 5:37 pm

    Nobody can claim that Morrison and his pack of media supporters aren’t smart.

    No, they are not smart. If there is a second wave of infections set off by Morrison’s deliberate campaign of undermining and misinformation, the State premiers will not be slow to sheet the blame home to where it belongs.

    So, now you are influenced by me.

    What part of consistency with Peggy do you agree with?

  22. Rex, whilst I’m sure the barracking would be reversed if the the situation was reversed as you described it. I don’t think it likely the liberals would ever be more inclined to favour people over profit than labor.

  23. Pegasus @ #3364 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 6:25 pm

    RD

    I for one am encouraged that there’s a Labor leader who is not for capitulation to the careless. Andrews is in a league of his own.

    That is another way to put it. I have not expressed an opinion either way (Do I hear howls?)

    I asked legitimate questions and points re Andrews in the context of:

    1. Andrews’ refusal to, in lockstep with the Liberals, to abolish upper house group voting tickets, despite both parties mouthing intentions to do so before the 2014 state election. For purely political reasons to “destroy the Greens at the ballot box”, in lockstep with the Murdoch media.

    2. Andrews’ refusal to set up an independent, multiparty oversight committee as other jurisdictions here and overseas have done.

    3. His stance on Mother’s Day visits with Victoria the only state prohibiting such visits.

    Three examples that speak to his management style…. eschewing transparency and democratic processes, as well as utter belief he ‘knows best’.

    Hypothetically, if NSW had a Labor state government, Victoria a Liberal state government and federally, a Labor government and the very same road maps to recovery had been put out by the respective governments, the barracking and sledging would be reversed.

    Greens don’t matter anymore.

  24. a r

    I posted info and 3 links about the release of the source code for the app either last night or the other. No one expressed any interest which surprised me. But then, perhaps not.
    ——–

    CC

    I accept that would be the case. I didn’t have you in mind…..

  28. Cud chewer

    Responding to your earlier question.
    The blitz on testing was announced two weeks ago and daily reminders by the govt and the MSM have been on TV and radio.
    100,000 was target. Nearly 150,000 tests have been conducted.

  31. Worth listening to….ABC RN The History Listen program with Rebecca Huntley:

    Section 71: ep 1 The Tasmanian crime of gay sex

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/the-history-listen/section-71:-tasmanian-crime-of-gay-sex/12090378

    It might surprise you to learn that until 1997, a man could go to jail for up to 21 years for having sex with another man in Australia.

    Gay rights activist Rodney Croome and his then-partner Nick Toonen were just 23 when they began their nine-year campaign to decriminalise gay sex in their home state of Tasmania.

    Little did they know, they’d have to go all the way to the High Court of Australia to do it.

    Guests: Rodney Croome, Nick Toonen, Greg Barns, Wayne Morgan, Paula Gerber and, Christine Milne.

  32. Vic stats so far

    Total cases: 1477(+10)
    Active cases: 123(+1)
    Recovered cases: 1336(+9)
    Deceased: 18(-)
    Patients in hospital: 7(-1)
    Patients in ICU: 6(-)
    Community transmission: 157(-)?

  33. Pegasus @ #3053 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 6:25 pm

    RD

    I for one am encouraged that there’s a Labor leader who is not for capitulation to the careless. Andrews is in a league of his own.

    That is another way to put it. I have not expressed an opinion either way (Do I hear howls?)

    I asked legitimate questions and points re Andrews in the context of:

    1. Andrews’ refusal to, in lockstep with the Liberals, to abolish upper house group voting tickets, despite both parties mouthing intentions to do so before the 2014 state election. For purely political reasons to “destroy the Greens at the ballot box”, in lockstep with the Murdoch media.

    2. Andrews’ refusal to set up an independent, multiparty oversight committee as other jurisdictions here and overseas have done.

    3. His stance on Mother’s Day visits with Victoria the only state prohibiting such visits.

    Three examples that speak to his management style…. eschewing transparency and democratic processes, as well as utter belief he ‘knows best’.

    Hypothetically, if NSW had a Labor state government, Victoria a Liberal state government and federally, a Labor government and the very same road maps to recovery had been put out by the respective governments, the barracking and sledging would be reversed.

    I always vote below the line for the LC. Everyone else has the opportunity to do the same.

    I’m not as concerned with your other points as you are. There are enough parliamentary processes to hold Govt to account AFAIC.

    Peg, I’m not saying the Andrews Govt never makes mistakes, they do. I just give them credit for the many things they’ve got right, in my opinion.

  35. a r

    It is good you posted about it too. It would be interesting to know who among the PBers intend to make a submission.

  39. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 6:24 pm

    I’ve been thinking about how heroic our health workers have been putting themselves in such danger to care for the infected.

    We really should have some sort of lasting acknowledgement of their service, shouldn’t we …?

    Any suggestions ?
    __________________
    I’ve been thinking about this too. Cheap holidays, a super boost?

  42. Peg – I agree with your opposition to Andrews on 1 particularly, and mostly on 2. I couldn’t give too hoots about the Mother’s Day thing – and in fact prefer his stance. The fact that it’s more cautious than other Premiers’ is neither here nor there in my opinion. I’m also really disappointed about the local government election “reforms” in Victoria, supported (surprise, surprise) by the LNP. It’s a stark contrast to Steve Bracks, who was prepared to reforms the Legislative Council voting system even at the risk of losing the Government’s majority. Meddling with the electoral system for purely political reasons, and in the direction of making it less representative is straight out of the US Republican playbook. I’m reasonably comfortable with Andrews’ government over all relative to other Australian governments but these things are disappointing

  43. Nath agree. What about some kind of official medal, not sure what you’d call it, and official invite to march on Anzac Day? Limit to key groups of essential workers – nurses, doctors, allied health workers, public health officials, supermarket workers, Police, contact tracers, covid testers and lab workers. Long list but they’ve all done their bit for us.

  46. Cud chewer

    Nsw stats

    Total
    confirmed cases 3,051
    New cases reported since 8pm 7 May 2020 5
    ​Active cases 501​
    People tested since 8pm 7 May 2020 2 13,692
    People tested and excluded since 8pm 7 May 2020 13,687
    Total people tested 294,949
    Total people tested and excluded 291,898
    Lives lost 46
    ​Recovered 2,504
    Notes

  48. Rossmore

    The supermarket/food store people, the humble “check out chicks” for sure deserve something. They were exposed to so many people and going into this we didn’t really know if it was truly safe to do so. Front line workers.

  49. Cud chewer

    In the past 24 hours, NSW recorded five new cases of coronavirus out of a record 13,692 tests.

    Of the five new cases, one person was exposed to the virus while overseas, two were close contacts of known cases and two were under investigation

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