Newspoll: 50-50

Scott Morrison gains further momentum in his remarkable but apparently voteless approval rating turnaround.

Courtesy of The Australian, the first Newspoll in three weeks is consistent with the last in suggesting the coronavirus surge in approval for Scott Morrison in translating into only a modest dividend on voting intention, on which the two parties are now tied after the Coalition opened up a 51-49 lead last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 41%, Labor up two to 36%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Despite that, Scott Morrison has gained further on his huge approval rating boost in the last poll, up seven to 68% — a level not seen since Kevin Rudd reached 70% in late 2008 — while his disapproval rating is down seven to 28%. Anthony Albanese is respectively steady at 45% and down two to 34% (I assume — the report says 36%, but this would be unchanged on last time), and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 56-28, out from 53-29. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1519.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

827 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Tricot

    That’s why it’s appropriate to critique how the government rolled it out.
    And how it’s implemented. To say the critique is paranoia of the left is overstating the case for sure.

    Just as it is that download the app and we will have police knocking on your door tomorrow arresting you for being a member of the Labor party.

    Both extreme positions.
    It’s a rush rollout made worse by lack of general privacy protections like the EU has.

    Yet talk about privacy protection and you are suddenly a paranoid extremist despite the legitimate case being made.

  2. Cud Chewer

    Precisely what I was pointing to. The app being set up as a smokescreen and an excuse. Whilst avoiding doing things that might actually make things safer.

    Not only but also if that figure ,one waaaay higher than Singapore, is not reached then it is ‘All Your Fault” , rather than Scrott and his band of spivs.

  3. Cud,

    D&M I never liked the term “dance”.

    It was predicated on the idea that you’d inevitably end up with some degree of infection. The best way to avoid another exponential growth is to avoid the “dance” entirely and have zero infections.

    Far less stress that way.

    This is a really good debate. I think you and I are lucky enough that we can work from home. In fact for my household – three adults in jobs, 1 child in school, it just been a longer than normal extension of what we often do. Except for poor 6 year old, although he has taken to gaming (Minecraft) with an enthusiasm that relieves the boredom.

    I can only speak to NSW, but here the restrictions are not being lifted until 11th May at earliest. This seems a reasonable timeframe to me: There is time to back-off if cases start to rise again.

    So, school students will go back to school 1 day per week from 11 May. Nothing else is mooted yet. We are also lucky enough to be able to watch the rest of the World start to open up, and learn from that.

    One thing I have noticed starting from around last Wednesday in my neck of the woods – not too far from Centennial Park, is that people have stopped self-isolating to the degree in which they were. My anecdotal observations are supported by observations from Pollbludgers, and from the Apple mapping app. People (rightly or wrongly) are feeling more comfortable and are now making their own decisions about going out and physical distancing.

    Watch the dates around 6th – 13th May in Sydney / NSW. If there is a sudden influx of new cases, then we have a really big problem with this virus.

  4. “There is obviously a desperate need to hold back on the sales pitch and provide more facts.”

    Scotty from Marketing rides again. For a start they call it “covidsafe” and the cover illustration shows someone with a shield” Jeez that’s rich. And misleading. And dangerous.

  5. Cud Chewer

    Oh, I can see where the misapprehension comes from if it’s called “covidsafe” and the cover illustration shows someone with a shield. Top marketing skills, hopeless truthful communication.

  6. D&M there is already some degree of non compliance. In part because of the messaging from Scomo. In part because the media is losing its interest. Sadly a lot of people don’t realise just how precarious our current position really is. Until its eliminated we can never more than partially restore the economy.

    Also, this isn’t just about kids going back to school. The real problem is changes in behaviour and policy that lead to crowds forming again in food courts, and malls and trains. Any combination of measures (including complacency) that results in people again crowding together in enclosed spaces absolutely will tip the balance and push R(eff) over 1.0. When it does that, even one case will be enough to become thousands in short order.

    We do not have the measures in place to control outbreaks under those circumstances and an app will not make much difference. Mask wearing for instance would have far more efficacy.

  7. Lizzie

    Many Post Offices will copy and certify documents.

    I believe that some libraries perform the same function.

    Good night all. 💤📺 The three musketeers.

  8. Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, April 27, 2020 at 5:02 pm

    shellbell

    Once again, children do spread the virus to adults. You can hide behind “oh but its only a small number” but you miss the point that a small number is enough to re-seed outbreaks that are harder to trace precisely because they are children with milder/no symptoms.
    ——————————————–

    Why is it that they don’t get this?

    It’s the same stubborn attitude towards masks. Why have they persisted in opposing what obviously is another level of protection to prevent virus spread?

    And what was their tortured reasoning, with everybody practising social distancing, that hairdressing salons could remain open? Even many hairdressers themselves felt they were risking getting the virus.

    I’m sure that Meher Baba will come up with the answers because, as he/she constantly reminds us, he/she is not afraid to call out the LNP when it screws up.

  9. I don’t know why Labor should just steal many Green policies. Indeed, even position themselves to the “left” of the Australian Greens on economic policies, thereby painting the Greens as a bunch of Neo-liberals.

    Because the Coalition stole quite some One Nation ones to the detriment of this country. Especially as this country is sliding into an economic crisis, that I have predicted would occur for several years now. So I say Labor should be advocating nationalizing the private hospitals, along with the airlines as a start.

  10. Tristo
    What is the point of taking over private hospitals because all you would do is transfer the cost to the taxpayer for little benefit and airlines are not a good use of tax dollars.

  11. citizen @ #549 Monday, April 27th, 2020 – 6:20 pm

    mundo says:
    Monday, April 27, 2020 at 6:10 pm
    citizen @ #534 Monday, April 27th, 2020 – 5:51 pm

    Further to tweet posted by lizzie:

    Ch 10 news and PvO with “exclusive” revelation that Angus Taylor refused to answer NSW police questions and told police to send questions to his lawyer. This was despite him claiming he would fully cooperate.

    This info was gleaned from police answers to a NSW parliamentary inquiry.

    Sounds like what a mobster would do in the movies.
    Wait ’till Labor gets wind of this.
    Taylor is toast!
    Toast I tells ya!

    I asume it was the Labor members of the NSW parliamentary inquiry who got this information into the public domain by giving PvO his “exclusive”.

    I wouldn’t assume anything here.

  12. You can’t test everyone and anyone who suggests so is not thinking straight. If you could do say 100,000 tests a day, which is not possible, it would take 250 days to do the whole population – 8 months and what would it have achieved?

    What you do is increase the level of testing and now they are looking at asymptomatic people so we can stamp out any breakouts. This won’t disappear until we get a vaccine. There are going to be breakouts.

    Think logically and stop being Henny Pennys.

  13. The Singapore app is called “TraceTogether”. The Australian app is called “COVIDsafe”.

    The Singapore app name invites cooperation from its citizens.

    The Australian app name is a typical advertising slogan invented by Scotty from Marketing. It’s obviously meant to reinforce the idea that Australia’s great and benevolent leader will keep everyone safe so long as they obey him.

    That is a big fail.

  14. Mexican

    The point is some sectors of society are better off being run as non profits.

    Healthcare is the stark example. We know how bad profit making is for health in the US.

  15. Guytaur
    We are discussing Australia and its system not the American system.

    Australia has a well structured health system and abolishing private hospitals will bring little benefit.

  16. Bennelong Lurker @ #540 Monday, April 27th, 2020 – 4:04 pm

    On the S.A Learn/Link crash.

    When the Bavarian Education Board, or whatever it is called there, closed schools in early March, it provided an IT platform for schools to use to upload lessons. It lasted less than 24 hours before it was hacked. Some students apparently decided they needed very little more in the way of IT lessons.

    Sounds like they were tired of being the student and wanted to do some teaching. 🙂

  17. And on a completely different track.. can anyone recommend a decent value for money zero turn ride on mower? Mine is kaput 🙁

  18. Shorter EGT:

    “Don’t use the app because someone, somewhere might misinterpret it’s data. It’s not perfect, therefore it’s useless.”

    Not really very specific, and a bit harsh on the app, in my opinion.

    I see it this way: someone you’ve been near to for 15 minutes gets sick. Health Dept. contact tracers contact you. You get tested.

    If you’re well, you’re well.

    If you’re infected, you know it, and isolate. That tends to cut off further infection down the track, and also gets those closest to you (app or no app) tested. Even better, if you’re symptomless and thus might have unwittingly infected others, you stop the progression.

    And if your infection gets worse, you present for early intervention, rather than explain it away as “just a cold” (or whatever), in the meantime letting the infection get your body into a full stranglehold. Maybe early intervention won’t make a difference in outcome, as some say. But maybe it will. Who wants to bet their life on that gamble?

    The app data is for Health “detectives” only. Too much data about definite outbreaks and definite secondary infections can only be a good thing, can’t it?

    As to Cuddly’s “government just wants to use it as an excuse” excuse, his preference is for testing all 25,000,000 Australians repeatedly (the only way to catch all initial infections, then catch follow-ups). This will NEVER happen, so stop dreaming Cuddly.

    The app is presently as close as we have to taking the leg-work out of tracing infections, along with their antecedents and their dependents.

  19. Guytaur
    It is one system. If the government closed all private hospitals the government would need to make cuts to avoid duplication or carry the cost. It wont fix waiting lists.

  20. guytaur @ #563 Monday, April 27th, 2020 – 6:43 pm

    Tristo.

    Labor needs to use this period to move things left.

    Business is already on it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/private-sector-charities-push-for-social-housing-led-economic-recovery-20200426-p54nbr.html

    Just a few weeks ago to suggest the government build houses was seen as advocating communist solutions.

    Labor will stand where they have always been. Right in the middle of Australian workers, families and their aspirations.

  21. Purely as a campaign theme, bashing China tends to be effective for Republicans, GOP strategist Heye said. “In Republican politics, you can never be anti-China enough.”

    “Trump’s voters also love that he fights,” Heye added, and they don’t mind his trade wars. “They respect that he’s trying something different” after decades of both parties embracing free trade.

    Attacking China over trade is also part of a long political tradition in the United States, said Alexandra Guisinger, a political science professor at Temple University and an expert in trade.

    “The message that there is a threat coming from Asia is handed to the American people rather often,” she said, and even more so during economic downturns.

    “In general, the protectionist campaign seems to be a strategy that works,” she said. “In this particular year, in this economy, my research shows that’s a message that voters will respond to.”

    Kelly Sadler, a spokeswoman for America First Action, also pointed to China’s shrinking popularity with U.S. voters. “These opinions will not fade this year, as we work to recover from the economic and health fallout of the coronavirus,” she said in an email to CNBC.

    Bashing China is a Republican/Trump theme.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-trump-clings-to-china-trade-deal-as-beijing-backlash-grows.html

  22. Guytaur
    Public housing has long been a state government responsibility so its not really a left or right wing issue.

  23. Mexican.

    The fact you want to avoid discussing profit is bad in healthcare by avoiding looking at the US example says it all.

  24. Kirky

    “You can’t test everyone and anyone who suggests so is not thinking straight. If you could do say 100,000 tests a day, which is not possible, it would take 250 days to do the whole population – 8 months and what would it have achieved?

    What you do is increase the level of testing and now they are looking at asymptomatic people so we can stamp out any breakouts. This won’t disappear until we get a vaccine. There are going to be breakouts.”

    Well, actually, you can test 100,000 people per day, or more. If you throw enough resources at it. And in a national emergency such as this, this should never be an issue. The question has always been about how fast you can ramp up testing and whether you can use rapid antibody tests as the front line screening process.

    One thing we should have done was blanket test critical care workers. Like for instance people who work at nursing homes. And other essential workers. Why didn’t we before we had people die at nursing homes? You tell me.

    By their very nature you can’t get asymptomatic people to rock up for a test. You can however blanket test people at higher risk and you can random sample the general population – some thing I advocated weeks ago but given that we are probably down to a few hundred carriers now and this number is steadily going down, the sample size would be impractical. Nevertheless, every excuse to blanket test critical workers might just throw up leads into undetected chains of infection.

    There can’t be breakouts if there are no carriers. Testing probably won’t ensure that. What probably will ensure that there are no carriers is a continuation of our current social distancing policies. They are working and working well. The chances are we will eliminate this virus from this country.

  25. guytaur says:
    The fact you want to avoid discussing profit is bad in healthcare by avoiding looking at the US example says it all.
    ———————
    Yep it says that i understand the Australia health system is not the American health system and that Guytaur sees the world through the American experience. 😉

  26. Another terrible decision by health bureaucrats on elective surgery.
    Up until now, urgent and semi urgent cases have been allowed.
    Increasing the type of operations to hip replacements, IVF and cataracts with only a 25% increase in activity has meant greedy hospitals are cancelling urgent melanoma cases and replacing them with the more lucrative hip replacements which need more theatre time, more ICU time and more time in hospital.

  27. By way of example of crimes committed with no remorse, today is the 10th anniversary of the murder of Michelle Beets, head of emergency nursing at Royal North Shore and the near 20 year partner of a friend and colleague of mine.

    Her killer showed no remorse and was sentenced to life without parole.

    He died a few weeks ago.

    https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nurses-throat-slashed-hunt-for-killer-in-green-hoodie-20100429-tt9d.html

  28. Mexican

    You have no defence.

    We know profit in healthcare is a bad thing. The United States has proved it comprehensively.

  29. guytaur @ #575 Monday, April 27th, 2020 – 6:56 pm

    GG

    You better tell Tanya Plibersek. She has been big on promoting social housing.

    Fresh from your tour of the UK promoting a complete idiot in Corbyn followed by a stint in the US with your unbridled Bernie! Bernie! Bernie! assurances, you now seek to advise Labor in Australia with your consistent, but amazingly stupid advice.

    None out of three is bad!

  30. Some years ago the then State Liberal Government in WA wanted to impose mandatory photographic driver license identification.

    There was an uproar, and they temporarily canned the idea.

    Shortly after they reintroduced it, but made it voluntary.

    Driver licenses are renewable here every five years. When the new voluntary photograph/non photograph licenses issued came up for renewal, the photographic licenses were made compulsory.

    It was a softening up exercise.

    I just don’t trust the bastards.

  31. The local Trumpists – the LNP – have also hitched their cart to the anti-China caravan. This cannot help Australia. It’s pandering to Trump.

  32. GG

    Yeah Labor lost in Victoria by being seen as the most progressive government in the country.

    We all remember it well.

  33. guytaur says:
    You have no defence.
    We know profit in healthcare is a bad thing. The United States has proved it comprehensively.
    ———————————————–
    Guytaur
    We are discussing the Australian health system. I simply point out that taking over private hospitals will make little different.

  34. Guytaur
    Depends what is left or right wing because your idea of left wing isn’t really Andrews. He is progressive but not a socialist like Bernie.

  35. Published just now on CNN

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/26/health/virus-hunters-bat-cave-coronavirus-hnk-intl/index.html

    Covid-19
    When Covid-19 appeared, Shi Zhengli, a virologist at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, immediately compared it to the database she had compiled with the 500 new coronaviruses identified by EcoHealth Alliance.

    There was a hit. “The new coronavirus matched a sample taken from a horseshoe bat in a cave in Yunnan in 2013,” says Daszak. “It was 96.2% identical.”

    That means the virus was either the ancestor of the virus causing the current epidemic or a close relative. “It is highly likely that an intermediate animal host was involved and transmitted the virus to humans, accounting for the 3.8% difference in genome,” he says.

    Knowing where a new virus came from and how it was transmitted to humans is a crucial piece of information. It can enable early detection of an epidemic and a timely introduction of measures to contain its spread, says Watcharaprueksadee.

    In the case of Covid-19, knowing where it originated will help scientists understand how it mutated to become infectious to humans and hopefully prevent future outbreaks, said Daszak.

    This elaborates on the academic article I have earlier posted here.

  36. From the CNN story….

    Daszak is a virus hunter. Over the past 10 years, he has visited over 20 countries trying to prevent the next big pandemic by searching bat caves for new pathogens. More specifically, new coronaviruses.
    The findings of Daszak, and others like him, inform an open-source library of all known animal viruses, from which scientists can forecast which strains are most likely to spill over to humans, in order to ready the world for a new pandemic like Covid-19.
    “We (have) collected more than 15,000 bat samples, which led to the identification of around 500 new coronaviruses,” he says.
    And one of those, found in a cave in China in 2013, was a possible ancestor of Covid-19.
    Coronavirus research
    Before the 2003 SARS epidemic, research into coronaviruses didn’t attract much attention. “It wasn’t seen as a sexy branch of medical research,” says Wang Linfa, a virologist from Duke-NUS in Singapore, who develops the tools used to analyze the samples collected by EcoHealth Alliance.
    Only two human coronaviruses had been identified back then, both discovered in the 1960s.
    In 2009, Predict was founded. Funded by USAID, it is led by University of California Davis, alongside EcoHealth Alliance, the Smithsonian Institution, the Wildlife Conservation Society and Metabiota, a Californian company which has developed an epidemic tracker.

  37. guytaur @ #591 Monday, April 27th, 2020 – 7:12 pm

    GG

    If you think Labor won because of a right wing agenda you need to join the fantasy writers at Newscorp

    As I wrote only a few minutes ago, and I do understand that it never happened because of your goldfish mental capacity:

    “Labor will stand where they have always been. Right in the middle of Australian workers, families and their aspirations”.

  38. Mexican

    Universal Healthcare. A good minimum wage and stronger unions are very Labor.

    These were the core parts of Sanders campaign.

    Wacking a label on someone makes it so easy to ignore actual policies.

  39. The Mater Hospital has been an important part of the QLD health system for over 100 years. It has been responsible for many innovations in health care over the years

    That is one example of how private and public health care has operated together, at least in QLD, for the overall good.

    There would need to be very good reasons to change something that works.

  40. Will not be surprise within a month of this app being in circulation , if some one/people gets infected with the corona virus by an unknown source, there will be threats of class action against the health authorities , Morrison and his cronies for falsely claiming that covidsafe app would warn them of those who were infected and it would save lives and lift restrictions.

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