Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The first Newspoll in three weeks records a coronavirus-related surge in personal support for Scott Morrison, familiar from international experience.

Courtesy of The Australian, the first Newspoll in what has been a dramatic three weeks finds the Coalition restoring its two-party lead, now at 51-49 after being the other way around last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 42%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation up one to 5%.

These changes are modest compared to the leaders’ ratings, which, as Kevin Bonham notes in comments, produce the strongest improvements in Newspoll history for a prime minister on both personal ratings and preferred prime minister. Morrison’s approval rating is up 20 to 61%, with disapproval down 18 to 35%, and his preferred prime minister lead has blown out from 42-38 to 53-29. However, Anthony Albanese’s ratings have also improved, up five on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 36%. Eight-six per cent of respondents expressed approval for the JobKeeper scheme with 10% disapproving, with 64% rated the $130 billion expenditure the right amount, compared with 14% for not enough and 16% for too much.

The poll also repeated a suite of questions on coronavirus and the government’s response that featured in the last Newspoll three weeks ago. The headline findings are that 84% profess themselves worried (up eight) and 14% confident (down six) about the impact of the virus on the Australian economy; 41% are confident (down six) and 57% worried (up six) about the preparedness of the public health system; 67% are confident (up four) and 32% worried (down three) about information available on how to protect one’s self; 47% are confident (down fourteen) and 33% worried (down fourteen) about the performance of federal and state governments in managing the economic impact; 59% are confident (up eight) and 28% worried (down five) about governments’ preparation of the public health system to cope; and 75% are confident (up ten) and 20% worried (down eight) about governments’ performance in informing Australians how to protect themselves.

Sixty-seven per cent professed themselves worried about catching the virus, 38% about higher government debt, 36% about job loss, 35% about falling superannuation balance, 15% about house prices falling and 7% about none of the above. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday, a subtle shift from its usual field work period of Wednesday to Saturday, from a sample of 1508.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

812 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  3. BB
    Makes you wonder how many are doing that and not being stupid enough to tell anyone.

    Apparently curious eyes here are spying on next door “neighbours” who aren’t really neighbours.

    The lady in the local grog shop (who knows everybody and everything) puts it bluntly: “No ‘2428’ postcode on your licence? Fuck off back to Palm Beach.”

  4. A couple of links:

    Blood Pressure Meds Point the Way to Possible COVID-19 Treatment: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/blood-pressure-meds-point-the-way-to-possible-covid-19-treatment-67371
    Lost Smell and Taste Hint COVID-19 Can Target the Nervous System: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lost-smell-and-taste-hint-covid-19-can-target-the-nervous-system-67312
    Monkeys Develop Protective Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/monkeys-develop-protective-antibodies-to-sars-cov-2-67281

    There seems to be a bit of debate at the moment about the role of hypertension medication in outcomes.

  5. Rex:’It actually saddens me immensely to see this diminished ALP just almost resigned to Opposition for god knows how long.’

    I thought you would be happy. I know Brant is. I see him on TV all the time explaining his policies, he is touring the country as I write glad handing the locals. The guy has seen an opening and exploiting it for all its worth. He can see that worked right, he will be the new opposition leader.

  6. Half way there and living on a prayer!

    I don’t know where I’m going
    Only God knows where I’ve been
    I’m a devil on the run
    ?

  10. Does anyone have any graphs for covid19 cases broken down to state and source?
    I’m looking for a site that keeps updating.

  11. Looks like it’s another medico special on Qanda tonight, with Chris Bowen and Katie Allen as the MPs.

    QandA@QandA
    ·
    10h
    Tonight, #QandA is sharing stories from the frontline of the coronavirus pandemic with
    @SParnis, Senior Nurse at St Vincent’s Hosptial, Sydney, Danielle Austin, @drvyom, and Dr Lucy Morgan. Tune-in at 9.35pm AEST on @ABCTV and iview.

  14. Peter Collignon is a professor of infectious disease at Australian National Univeristy Medical School

    We need to live restricted lives for at least six months – police-enforced lockdowns are unnecessary

    There is no evidence to support the over the top laws put in place in NSW and Victoria in response to the coronavirus

    “Some states have now put in overzealous rules and ones that give very mixed messages or have little biological plausibility. Not only will this cause unwarranted and increased social, mental and economic harm, we run the bigger risk that a substantial part of our society in a few months’ time (our winter) might increasingly rebel against many restrictions.

    I hope NSW and Victoria can be persuaded to relax on their overzealous restrictions so recently and unnecessarily put in place.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/05/we-need-to-live-restricted-lives-for-at-least-six-months-police-enforced-lockdowns-are-unnecessary

  16. Slightly off topic but how does one explain what the sky is to a toddler who has just turned 3yo?

    We look after our grandson while his parents transition to work from home and he’s a smart little fellow who asks many questions, is good at jigsaws and can engage in meaningful (short) conversations.

    Today we were outside under a near cloudless sky and he moved his gaze from birds in a neighbour’s tree to the blue sky. “What’s that blue thing?” “It’s the sky and it’s very high.” “Can I climb up a ladder to see it?” “No it’s much higher than that.” Beyond that I was stumped for a reply. It might have been better if it were night and he could see the moon and stars.

    Any thoughts please?

  17. “Cud Chewersays:
    Monday, April 6, 2020 at 8:03 pm
    Holden

    That’s just the current snapshot unfortunately. Need a graph.”

    Think you’ll have to roll your own.

    Not all the states provide the information in the same way either.

  19. Cud Chewer

    Re your “testing testing testing” mantra. Watching the NZ “cmo” he outlined their plan once the lock down results kicks in is to go for “community surveillance” testing bigly. So random testing of communities. You would likely have said do that from the start but it looks like they are about to kick that off to determine whether going back to Stage 3 is appropriate, be it regional or nationally.

  20. Too far from home’: Police to review fine for L-plater taking lesson with mum

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/too-far-from-home-teen-driver-fined-for-driving-lesson-with-her-mum-20200406-p54hhe.html

    “Victorian police are fining seven times as many people for breaching coronavirus lockdown rules as their NSW counterparts.

    During a 24-hour blitz starting Sunday, more than 100 Victorians – including a learner driver – received on-the-spot fines. In NSW, 15 people were fined over the weekend.

    Victorian Police will review the fine given to a Melbourne teen on Sunday for breaching coronavirus restrictions during a driving lesson with her mother.”

    ———————-
    The Guardian

    Staying with New South Wales police for a moment, and interestingly they seem to differ with their counterparts in Victoria on whether driving lessons constitute a reasonable excuse for being outdoors. A little earlier we mentioned a learner driver had been fined during a driving lesson.

    NSW police say though that a driving lesson would constitute “a reasonable excuse”.

    We consider that it would be a reasonable excuse for a person to leave their house to receive driving lessons (either from a driving instructor or a member of their family), given that this is a learning activity that cannot be done from home and is akin to the listed reasonable excuse of travelling to attend an educational institution where you cannot learn from home.

  22. Peter Collignon’s comments are sensible. There is a rational resistance to complete lockdown that is going to grow.

  23. Any thoughts please?

    Dont encourage them. I did and at 5 she wanted to know; if the universe started with the big bang from an very small point… what was outside that point.
    Some traits skip a generation. This one either skipped several or the stork has some questions to answer.

  24. citizen says:
    Monday, April 6, 2020 at 8:12 pm
    …

    Any thoughts please?

    My farther used to say. Sometimes the education system fails to destroy a kids natural curiosity and love for leaning. Encourage it. Backup forces will be there to destroy it latter.

    And to a grandpa’s rescue we have the internet.

    https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/blue-sky/en/

  25. But seriously, I found that most kids under 5 or so were very very observant. They may look like they arent paying attention but they are soaking up data like huge sponges.

    Then something happens. They stop living in the moment. They stop looking out and start looking more inwardly and the magic of the universe fades a little from their sponges.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmvdQREQJZg

  26. The best page I have is this…
    https://www.covid19data.com.au/transmission-sources

    If you scroll down to the NSW cumulative view of transmission sources over time, a fair summary is that infections that have been diagnosed and determined to be local and of unknown source are still growing, but not growing exponentially. Roughly 24 cases per day.

    If this were to continue having 24 cases per day the pipeline of active cases (in this category) would soon level off (as people recover or die) and remain in the hundreds. Given that most people won’t end up being tested (asymptomatic or mild symptoms) it follows that this 24 per day represents something more like 200 odd actual infections per day – but at a point a week in the past. It may well be that social isolation has had a greater effect since and the pool of hidden infections has actually dropped. Maybe. Its also possible that the virus gets lucky and finds fresh pools of susceptible people. We’ll see.

    The evidence from the last 3 days suggests that maybe new cases in the local/unknown category are falling. But.. and this is a big but. Its all subject to the vagaries of testing rates.

    I heard on the news that GPs are now being encouraged to be a bit more aggressive in who they test. We shall see I guess.

    What’s interesting about the Victorian figures is there’s a far wider split between local infections with known (traced) source and local infections with unknown source – than there is in NSW. Why? Are the Victorians simply better at tracking/tracing? Were they a bit unluckier with local infections caused by people who got infected overseas? Both groups are lower than in NSW though. Again, positive signs but by no means have we got a handle on hidden (undiagnosed) infections.

    The numbers in other states are too small to tell much about. Interesting that the ACT has few local infections and none so far of unknown source. Yet they are going to do some random sampling (people who show up at the clinic but don’t have symptoms). Problem with that one is that its going to take a lot of random samples (thousands) for any statistically significant conclusion to be drawn about the upper bound of hidden infections.


  28. Monday, April 6, 2020 at 8:32 pm

    Any thoughts please?

    Dont encourage them. I did and at 5 she wanted to know; if the universe started with the big bang from an very small point… what was outside that point.

    It’s a pretty good question.

  29. ‘citizen says:
    Monday, April 6, 2020 at 8:12 pm

    Slightly off topic but how does one explain what the sky is to a toddler who has just turned 3yo?

    We look after our grandson while his parents transition to work from home and he’s a smart little fellow who asks many questions, is good at jigsaws and can engage in meaningful (short) conversations.

    Today we were outside under a near cloudless sky and he moved his gaze from birds in a neighbour’s tree to the blue sky. “What’s that blue thing?” “It’s the sky and it’s very high.” “Can I climb up a ladder to see it?” “No it’s much higher than that.” Beyond that I was stumped for a reply. It might have been better if it were night and he could see the moon and stars.

    Any thoughts please?’

    1. Any true answer is a good answer.
    2. Take him out at night.

  31. Simon Katich

    Dont encourage them. I did and at 5 she wanted to know; if the universe started with the big bang from an very small point… what was outside that point.

    As a wee’un, aged no more than 7 , after listening to a Sunday School teacher bang on about the sacrifice of God giving his son for us. I asked “god can make anything can’t he ?” , yes she replied, I still remember the ‘gotcha’ felt as I said “Well then he could make as many sons as he wanted AND he got him back” . Her inability to reply cemented my then growing suspicion “we woz being fed crap” 🙂 Another “head scratcher” at the time for me was why on earth so much attention was paid to this jesus dude instead of god the Il Capo dei Capi 😆

  34. And if they’re really, really smart, as soon as they can read you buy them a book about Astronomy, before their head gets filled with religious crap. 😀

  36. “citizen says:
    Monday, April 6, 2020 at 8:54 pm
    fredenk & SK – thanks for the advice. We’ll try to survive.”

    And C@tmomma!


  37. citizen says:
    Monday, April 6, 2020 at 8:54 pm

    fredenk & SK – thanks for the advice. We’ll try to survive.

    I think being a grandpa’s is one of the joys of life. First time around your too busty building a life, providing and lets be honest to immature to notice the wonder of it all.

  39. citizen,

    First rule: don’t bullshit to them.
    If you don’t know, say so and find out.
    There’a so much great stuff on the internet if you’re willing to look.


  40. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 6, 2020 at 8:52 pm

    And if they’re really, really smart, as soon as they can read you buy them a book about Astronomy, before their head gets filled with religious crap.

    I brought my granddaughter a planet mobile to build, which she did with the help of mum and one night had her out looking at the moon through a telescope.

  41. poroti @ #731 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 6:48 pm

    Another “head scratcher” at the time for me was why on earth so much attention was paid to this jesus dude instead of god the Il Capo dei Capi 😆

    Because that points to the Old Testament wherein God is shown to be a petty, vindictive, psychopathic, homophobic, misogynistic, racist sociopath.

    Bit hard to portray him/her/it as being a kindly, benevolent, loving, forgiving figure when his exploits as described in the OT prove he/she/it is anything but that.

  42. #ETTD

    Philip Rucker@PhilipRucker
    ·
    10h
    If you’re looking for a likely reason why Trump blocked Dr. Fauci from giving his medical opinion on hydroxychloroquine, see this @jonathanvswan scoop about the big fight between Fauci and Trump acolyte Peter Navarro at yesterday’s task force meeting—>

    https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-white-house-01306286-0bbc-4042-9bfe-890413c6220d.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100

  46. ”Slightly off topic but how does one explain what the sky is to a toddler who has just turned 3yo?”

    Interesting. Maybe you could tell him it’s Outer Space. That’s partly true and he might be familiar with the idea of Space from cartoons and other TV shows / games.


  47. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 6, 2020 at 8:52 pm

    And if they’re really, really smart, as soon as they can read you buy them a book about Astronomy, before their head gets filled with religious crap.

    That easy, bed time stories, read them large chunks of the bible so they know what is really in there. Be warned, a lot of it is M ( parent guidance required) and R rated. For young minds best to stay away from the R rated stuff.

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