Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The first Newspoll in three weeks records a coronavirus-related surge in personal support for Scott Morrison, familiar from international experience.

Courtesy of The Australian, the first Newspoll in what has been a dramatic three weeks finds the Coalition restoring its two-party lead, now at 51-49 after being the other way around last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 42%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation up one to 5%.

These changes are modest compared to the leaders’ ratings, which, as Kevin Bonham notes in comments, produce the strongest improvements in Newspoll history for a prime minister on both personal ratings and preferred prime minister. Morrison’s approval rating is up 20 to 61%, with disapproval down 18 to 35%, and his preferred prime minister lead has blown out from 42-38 to 53-29. However, Anthony Albanese’s ratings have also improved, up five on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 36%. Eight-six per cent of respondents expressed approval for the JobKeeper scheme with 10% disapproving, with 64% rated the $130 billion expenditure the right amount, compared with 14% for not enough and 16% for too much.

The poll also repeated a suite of questions on coronavirus and the government’s response that featured in the last Newspoll three weeks ago. The headline findings are that 84% profess themselves worried (up eight) and 14% confident (down six) about the impact of the virus on the Australian economy; 41% are confident (down six) and 57% worried (up six) about the preparedness of the public health system; 67% are confident (up four) and 32% worried (down three) about information available on how to protect one’s self; 47% are confident (down fourteen) and 33% worried (down fourteen) about the performance of federal and state governments in managing the economic impact; 59% are confident (up eight) and 28% worried (down five) about governments’ preparation of the public health system to cope; and 75% are confident (up ten) and 20% worried (down eight) about governments’ performance in informing Australians how to protect themselves.

Sixty-seven per cent professed themselves worried about catching the virus, 38% about higher government debt, 36% about job loss, 35% about falling superannuation balance, 15% about house prices falling and 7% about none of the above. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday, a subtle shift from its usual field work period of Wednesday to Saturday, from a sample of 1508.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

812 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. The trial against these alleged misdemeanours of these men has suffered from C19…

    “A NSW Supreme Court spokeswoman confirmed on Monday the trial has been adjourned to August 31 and will have a court mention on August 3.

    Justice Elizabeth Fullerton is expected to publish a judgment in the next few days outlining the reasons for the adjournment.

    Crown Prosecutor Sophie Callan previously told the court the Obeid family were leaked confidential information from then-minister Macdonald about the potential coal resources which covered their family farm, Cherrydale Park.

    Mr Macdonald’s barrister described the case against his client as “a reductionist, revisionist attempt to rewrite history” and said Mr Macdonald always acted “in the best interests of the people of NSW”.

    The barrister said there was no evidence of any agreement between his client and the Obeids or any proof Mr Macdonald had leaked confidential material.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/obeid-and-macdonald-supreme-court-trial-adjourned-until-august-20200406-p54hli.html

  2. Insiders got a bit of a bad wrap here yesterday. I thought Speers was good and gave Super Sally a worthwhile uninterrupted innings.

    But two moments were stand outs:

    There was footage of Morrison saying’ in a feeble attempt to explain their completely out of character position of helping the disadvantaged while trying to retain their previous justification for being mean bastards:

    {this current situation is} no longer about entitlement, but about need.

    And then there was Speers, confirming once and for all for whom the Coalition usually govern, and unto them shall they return:

    {the Government} put ideology aside in the national interest.

  3. Now here is the Saturday AM show that I think you guys should have a listen to..

    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/australias-coronavirus-endgame/12100208
    Is the aim to eradicate corona virus in our midst, or is it to flatten the curve?

    Skip to 8:14. Two guys. One is John Daley from the Grattan Institute who is talking very cogently about aiming for eradication and the other guy is Peter who is an infectious diseases specialist at the ANU. Listen to how John speaks clearly and cogently and Peter manages to fudge things.

    Very illustrative of the two schools of thought. Eradication on the one hand – the only option that makes sense. And “flatten the curve somehow” on the other hand which has not exit straetegy.

    Enjoy.

  4. And to break the tedium of Polls, plague, death and boats – tomorrow we will have this to discuss!

    I’m rooting for the Queen.

  9. Delivered in Brisbane so the Chief Justice presumably will announce with maybe Justice Keane there and the others by videolink from chambers or not at all.

  10. That ridiculously well-paid political strategist made the claim today on PB that ………..
    And the heavens opened.

  12. “Cud Chewersays:
    Monday, April 6, 2020 at 6:10 pm
    Blobbit what does the “comm” stand for?”

    Sorry – community cases, as reported by the Vic health department

  13. Cud Chewer

    Re panic claims. There would be just as many idiots per head of population in NZ and the UK as here yet release of modelling created zero “panic” in those places. The UK numbers would be 10 times scarier than here and their press in the lurid stakes leave ours for dead. . So their not releasing it means a) They are trying to hide something b) They are saying to the Australian public “We think you are a bunch of morons who can’t handle the truth” “

  15. So growth rate of 1.79% for a doubling time of 39 and surely a reduction in overall active cases.

    We are close to running parallel to South Korea (doyen 1) and Japan (doyen 2) is catching up.

  18. Blobbit

    Ok thanks. Will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of weeks.

    If we see a trickle of new confirmed cases of unknown source then we will know that we have a certain number of hidden infections but there will also be an upper bound.

    If we get to the point of there being no new cases then there is an argument how long that needs to remain the case for it to be highly improbable that there are actually any hidden cases. I’d say that in the absence of mass testing you might want to wait 4-6 weeks with no new cases to declare “provisionally eradicated”.

  19. And final one I’ve done, WA

    (Apologies for the formats all being a bit different – different states report slightly different things)

    WA doesn’t (yet) consistently report community cases

  20. shellbell

    South Korea is a good example of what I mean by a linear trickle. There’s a pool of hidden infections and the rate of testing and tracing is basically chasing the tail. Its constantly pouring water on a fire as it continues to slow spread at a certain rate.

    Japan is a good example of what I mean by slow exponential (but still unconstrained) growth.

    Neither of these countries we should aspire to. We can and should do better than them.

  21. “Cud Chewersays:
    Monday, April 6, 2020 at 6:22 pm
    Blobbit

    Ok thanks. Will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of weeks.”

    Indeed. Even in the next couple of days.

  25. As at 3:00pm on 6 April 2020, there have been 5,795 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 108 new cases since 3:00pm yesterday.

  28. Under the new coronavirus regulations, no one should be staying anywhere other than their own permanent home, and they could be fined or imprisoned if they were found to be breaking emergency rules.

    Everyone up here is talking about the well-to-do Sydney couple who’ve just arrived here for “Easter holidays”.

    Hubby has tested positive and needs to self-isolate.

    He’s decided to leave Sydney and isolate at his Bluey’s Beach beach shack (that’s a joke: there are no shacks in Bluey’s Beach). Wifey took the Beemer and accompanied him separately.

    Wifey, while shopping for supplies, made the mistake of telling the 17 year old checkout chick at the local supermarket why they were here.

    Alarums! Trumpets! Suffer surfeit, cloyment and revolt anon!

    EXeunt staff. INeunt the scrubbers and disinfectors. And ring the bells in Forster Cop Shop. Tapes were replayed and rego plate numbers scribbled down. Anywhere that wifey went, Glen20 and Dettol was sure to follow. Shelf stock was binned and staff were sent home to change uniforms and have a good, long shower.

    A plod wagon was seen outside the supermarket this afternoon, and the word is books are about to be thrown at our Sydney couple.

  30. Catmomma,

    You seem to think I am critical of the Union control of the ALP. I am not. They set up the ALP. the pay for it and therefore they have every right to control it.

    Compare and contrast it with UK Labour where £3 memberships ended up with Momentum taking over control of the voting and the Unions losing their power which lead to Corbyn becoming Leader – how’d that work out for them?

  34. I was going to send 84 year old Mum off to the country to a friend’s house down South but it was made clear that that wasn’t allowed so she is at home in her apartment block with hundreds of other high risk oldies. I see both sides of the argument but I would have rather she be down in the SW in a remote farmhouse with her best friend.

  39. BB they closed Bribie beach to camping so someone set up camp in the car park. Can’t convince some people the situation is serious.

  41. “ Albo’s character is Mace Tyrell”

    That’s just shit.

    I don’t actually think there is a character from GOT that easily fits Albo. Maybe Davos Seaworth is the closest. Maybe Ser Barristan Selmy. Or a combination of the two.

    As for Brian Trumble. … you have the wrong fantasy series altogether. He is clearly Gilderoy Lockhart.

  42. lizzie @ #646 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 5:59 pm

    mundo

    Well, I foolishly imagined that those on PB who criticise so much would be interested enough to listen to political interviews. As Stuart Robert would say. My bad.

    I wasn’t talking about those of us on PB.
    I was talking about the ordinary voter who doesn’t move in the rarefied media circles we do.
    PB is an echo chamber.
    The average punter will need to be told that the current government had to abandon it’s entire political ideology because it wasn’t fit for purpose.
    They then need to be told that the current government adopted the political idealogy of it’s political opponents – the Labor party – because anything less would have resulted in hand to hand combat in the streets.

    The Labor party has to tell them.

  46. Dear Mundo
    I was being heavily sarcastic as I am well aware of your motivations. So sorry it flew past you.
    Lizzie

  47. B

    bwahahaha

    As much as a billion was spent by Morrison and his ministers in the lead up to the election without constitutional right so to do. They literally did not have the authority to spend it. It represents the single largest case of criminal fraud by a Federal government since Federation.

    It represents criminal behaviour, pure and simple.

    Another nine billion was showered on anyone and everyone that might make a bit of an electoral difference. The purpose was clearly to buy out our democracy.

    That nine billion was entirely spent with utter contempt for the principles of probity.

    In the lead up to the election, the Morrison Government spent well over $100 million dollars of taxpayers’ funds to tell taxpayers what a wonderful job the Morrison Government was doing.

    There are four federal ministers who should not be in parliament at all: Cash, Taylor, Robert and McKenzie. Sinodinos, who had a shocking memory loss for a while, and who was associated with a scam to corner the Sydney water market, is now our ambassador to the United States.

    And so it goes.

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