Something for the weekend

Random notes: a WA only poll on coronavirus, some detail on the elections in Queensland last Saturday, and a look at Donald Trump’s counter-intuitive poll bounce.

The West Australian had a Painted Dog Research poll of 500 respondents on attitudes to the coronavirus, with field work dates undisclosed – or at least its website did, as I can’t see any mention of it in the hard copy. What the online report ($) tells us is that 71% believed the federal government should “enforce a full lockdown”; that 25% expected three months of social distancing, and 23% six months; that 18% were extremely worried about losing their job by September, with another 42% slightly worried; and that 68% were most concerned about the health impact, compared with 28% for the economic impact.

Other than that, I have the following to relate about Queensland’s elections on the weekend, which I’ll put here as the dedicated post on the subject doesn’t seem to be doing much business:

• As the dust settles on the troubled counting process, it’s clear the Liberal National Party has enjoyed something of a triumph in the election for Brisbane City Council, extending their 16-year grip on the lord mayoralty and quite probably repeating their feat from 2016 of winning 19 out 26 wards on the council. Incumbent Adrian Schrinner leads Labor’s Pat Condren in the lord mayoral race by a margin of 5.5%, although the latter gained a 4.0% swing off Graham Quirk’s landslide win in 2016. The ABC projection is awarding 17 ward seats to the LNP, to which they look very likely to add Enoggera, while maintaining a slender lead over the Greens in Paddington. The Greens’ combined council ward vote is up 3.4% on 2016 to 17.9%, and they retained their sole existing seat of The Gabba with swings of 12.2% on the primary vote and 8.5% on two-party preferred.

• However, it was a less good performance by the LNP in the two state by-elections, where all the detail is laid out at my results pages for Bundamba and Currumbin. The party finished a distant third behind One Nation in Bundamba, which remains a safe seat for Labor, and have only narrowly held on in Currumbin, where Labor has achieved a rare feat for a governing party in picking up a swing of nearly 2% at a by-election. Party leader Deb Frecklington would nonetheless be relieved by the result, since a defeat in Currumbin, which a pre-election poll suggested was in prospect, would surely have imperilled her leadership, despite her being able to point to the highly unusual circumstances in which the election was held.

• Speaking of which, I offer the following numbers on the ways the enrolled voters of Bundamba and Currumbin did and didn’t vote, with the qualification that there is an indeterminate number of postals still to be counted — perhaps rather a few of them, given I understood that there had been a surge in applications (although it seems a number of applicants never received their ballots).

Finally, a few thoughts on the situation in the United States, elaborating on a subject covered in yesterday’s post here by Adrian Beaumont – you are encouraged to comment on that thread if you have something specific to offer on matters American, and in particular on Donald Trump’s confounding opinion poll bounce over the past few weeks. I sought to put the latter event in context in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, the key feature of which is the following comparison of his approval rating trend, as measured by FiveThirtyEight, with comparable trend measures of my own for Angela Merkel, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron and Scott Morrison.

The upshot is that leaders the world over are enjoying a “rally around the flag” approval bounce, and that Donald Trump’s looks meagre indeed compared with his colleagues across the Atlantic. I feel pretty sure that the lack of a clear bounce for Scott Morrison is down to the fact that there have been no new numbers since Essential Research’s poll of over a fortnight ago, with the surges for Merkel, Johnson and Macron being concentrated since that time.

It’s also interesting to observe that Trump’s improvement has not been consistently observed. The chart below records his trends so far from this year from the five most prolific pollsters. For some reason, Rasmussen, the pollster that is usually most favourable to him — and which is accordingly the most frequent subject of his vainglorious tweets on the odd occasion when it reaches 50% — has in fact found his approval rating going in the direction he deserves. There is also no sign of change from the Ipsos series. However, the improving trend from the other three is more in line with the many other pollsters included in the FiveThirtyEight series, hence its overall picture of his best ratings since his post-election honeymoon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,303 comments on “Something for the weekend”

  1. ‘Aqualung says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 8:32 pm

    I’m sure looking forward to being pop/grandpa, Boerwar.
    This bloody virus is really f@?king with my sanity though.
    I took a punt on taking my leave early to hopefully get through the peak.
    Who knows.’

    I am feeling grandchild deprived. We Whats Ap and Skype but it is not the same. Still, you have good times ahead, IMO. Enjoy.

  2. Bernie Sanders has lost the race. He needs to pull out and get behind Joe Biden. His continued campaigning for the nomination only increases the chances of a Trump Victory.

    That being said, if I were American I’d get out to vote for whoever the Democrats put up against Trump. The prospect of another four Trump years in a world being rebuilt after the Virus is just too dreadful to contemplate.

  3. The real Clem Attlee was a staunch anticommunist and patriot, situated in the centre of his party. He would not have supported Bernie Sanders.

  4. C@tmomm:

    [‘A perfect song for the Coronavirus times:’]

    True. When Ms. Lee released: “Is that all there is”, she questioned the American false dream, for which she was heavily criticised – a brave stance in those days.

  5. By David Crowe and Rob Harris
    April 5, 2020 — 6.47pm

    A powerful new committee will monitor the Morrison government’s performance in the coronavirus crisis after weeks of tension over the power of the Parliament to scrutinise sweeping health measures and massive budget outlays.

    Parliament is set to authorise at least one committee and possibly two in order to call ministers to account and question officials over their decisions on community shutdowns and financial assistance.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-committee-to-monitor-government-on-coronavirus-measures-20200405-p54h8j.html

  6. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 9:06 pm

    By David Crowe and Rob Harris
    April 5, 2020 — 6.47pm

    A powerful new committee will monitor the Morrison government’s performance in the coronavirus crisis after weeks of tension over the power of the Parliament to scrutinise sweeping health measures and massive budget outlays.

    Parliament is set to authorise at least one committee and possibly two in order to call ministers to account and question officials over their decisions on community shutdowns and financial assistance.’

    Powerful? How many more hundreds of questions taken on notice…

  7. I expect labor to get a drubbing in Newspoll because they haven’t said or done anything for the last few weeks.
    Staying quiet is a mistake.

  8. The Liberals will be ahead in this newspoll by a long shot. Relief they aren’t continuing to behaving like idiots is a positive emotion.

  9. Greensborough Growler @ #2022 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 2:32 pm

    PuffyTMD @ #2022 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 4:30 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2013 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 3:46 pm

    Adelaide today, as vibrant as ever. Taking the Covid 19 virus in it’s stride.

    <a href="<a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    That is usually a very busy and vibrant mall, with lots of locals, tourists, families with kids and buskers. My favourite is the Brass Pigs. Adelaide Arcade has a group of very interesting little shops. All of those will be closed now.
    Those Mall’s Balls are so iconic.
    “A Day Out” by Marguerite Derricourt

    Looks like party time in Adelaide to me.

    I thought it was the Christmas rush.

  10. south:

    [‘I expect labor to get a drubbing in Newspoll because they haven’t said or done anything for the last few weeks.’]

    Dear, at this time, please provide your governance.

  11. Joe Biden’s pitch to the voters will be that he has been accused of assault by slightly fewer women than Trump has.

    Mainstream Democrats are revealing themselves as hypocrites when they profess to care about rape victims. They only listen to rape victims when it is convenient to do so. If an accuser is inconvenient to their political agenda these establishment Democrats will victim-shame and ignore. Tara Reade, the woman who accuses Biden of raping her with his finger in the early 1990s, has shared her story in an interview with a podcaster. She comes across as very plausible.

    In addition to this rape accusation, there are many women who have accused Biden of touching them inappropriately.

  12. Shorter Nicholas: ‘us trots have found the way to buffalo mainstream candidates out of mainstream social democratic parties’.

    You really are a disgrace.

    I’ve always though Biden was the worst presidential candidate ever. Thank you for convincing me that I was wrong.

  13. The main Newspoll article is not up yet, but a comment article by Simon Benson is. No figures, but two bits worth quoting.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coronavirus-scott-morrison-proves-hes-the-man-for-a-crisis/news-story/1a7bcada19d14a56a108e841132965f2 (paywalled)

    “Having fallen behind Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister in January, a feat not easily achieved, Morrison’s approval rating has skyrocketed to levels last experienced by Kevin Rudd in 2009 during the global financial crisis.”

    “Support for the $130bn JobKeeper scheme is overwhelming. There is confidence in the government’s mission to preserve life and prevent the collapse of the economy. And there is a rare level of trust that the government is doing everything it can to stop the spread of this virus.”

    Nothing about party figures yet.

  14. Nicholas, you are one gullible dupe – try reading some investigative reporting into ‘Tara Reade’ – she seems to have an obsession with Vladimir Putin. Funny about that.

    “While the allegations made by Reade are impossible to prove or disprove, examining Reade’s actions over the years and other evidence that has been archived on the internet, brings her honesty and integrity into question.

    Below we will cover many of the inconsistencies in her story, the endless contradictions she has made over the years, and the evidence that paints a picture of someone who went from seemingly adoring Joe Biden and disliking Vladimir Putin in 2017, to someone who showed compassion and love for Vladimir Putin in 2018, to someone who accused Biden of doing horrific things to her in 2019 and 2020.“

    https://medium.com/@eddiekrassenstein/evidence-casts-doubt-on-tara-reades-sexual-assault-allegations-of-joe-biden-e4cb3ee38460

  15. “Having fallen behind Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister in January, a feat not easily achieved, Morrison’s approval rating has skyrocketed to levels last experienced by Kevin Rudd in 2009 during the global financial crisis.”

    “Support for the $130bn JobKeeper scheme is overwhelming. There is confidence in the government’s mission to preserve life and prevent the collapse of the economy. And there is a rare level of trust that the government is doing everything it can to stop the spread of this virus.”

    The benefits of bipartisanship?

  16. New COVID-19 treatment hopes as Australian death toll climbs

    I’m sure News Corpse is thankful that it is provided with an endless stream of clickbait headlines like this for months to come.

  17. Dr Kevin Bonham..

    #Newspoll Morrison’s 20 point Better PM gain vs Albanese is the highest poll to poll gain by a PM vs the same opposition leader ever. The previous record was 18 points by Keating during the Downer leadership collapse.

  18. Wow. That’s all that Moses Morrison has managed?

    Morrison is a phoney and a fraud.

    Regardless of any rally around the flag bounce, he’s not up to this.

    We (perhaps not the ‘loyal opposition’ directly, but us foot soldiers at least) need to keep piling in until the house of cards collapses. No quarter, no prisoners.

  19. Why should Sanders pull out. The candidate who believes in universal health care and who can get that message out may have some new listeners.
    Those who see a poor health system that is for the rich while those close to them die a painful death may be swayed to Bernie.
    Prepared to call Trump a liar an idiot and similar complimentary terms not like nice old Joe.
    Trump will trash whoever runs against him. Someone who replies in kind might slow him down.

  20. Morrison has no doubt saved his own bacon. His net satisfaction and some key leader attributes could have been irreparably damaged after his pathetic bushfires response.

    #disasterpolitics

  21. That’s not bad for the ALP. Long way to go on this yet and ScoMo, despite having the right strategy in my view, is still Scomo.

  22. Nicholas:

    Allegations in a highly political climate have little weight. We wish you well. It won’t happen, one wishing him – Bernie – a happy retirement.

  23. Morrison specialises in “good news” so it’s no wonder his approval rating has risen at this time. He has left the hard work to the premiers and chief ministers.

    We’ll see how his popularity goes when people discover the bonanza he promised isn’t delivered in practice.

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