Something for the weekend

Random notes: a WA only poll on coronavirus, some detail on the elections in Queensland last Saturday, and a look at Donald Trump’s counter-intuitive poll bounce.

The West Australian had a Painted Dog Research poll of 500 respondents on attitudes to the coronavirus, with field work dates undisclosed – or at least its website did, as I can’t see any mention of it in the hard copy. What the online report ($) tells us is that 71% believed the federal government should “enforce a full lockdown”; that 25% expected three months of social distancing, and 23% six months; that 18% were extremely worried about losing their job by September, with another 42% slightly worried; and that 68% were most concerned about the health impact, compared with 28% for the economic impact.

Other than that, I have the following to relate about Queensland’s elections on the weekend, which I’ll put here as the dedicated post on the subject doesn’t seem to be doing much business:

• As the dust settles on the troubled counting process, it’s clear the Liberal National Party has enjoyed something of a triumph in the election for Brisbane City Council, extending their 16-year grip on the lord mayoralty and quite probably repeating their feat from 2016 of winning 19 out 26 wards on the council. Incumbent Adrian Schrinner leads Labor’s Pat Condren in the lord mayoral race by a margin of 5.5%, although the latter gained a 4.0% swing off Graham Quirk’s landslide win in 2016. The ABC projection is awarding 17 ward seats to the LNP, to which they look very likely to add Enoggera, while maintaining a slender lead over the Greens in Paddington. The Greens’ combined council ward vote is up 3.4% on 2016 to 17.9%, and they retained their sole existing seat of The Gabba with swings of 12.2% on the primary vote and 8.5% on two-party preferred.

• However, it was a less good performance by the LNP in the two state by-elections, where all the detail is laid out at my results pages for Bundamba and Currumbin. The party finished a distant third behind One Nation in Bundamba, which remains a safe seat for Labor, and have only narrowly held on in Currumbin, where Labor has achieved a rare feat for a governing party in picking up a swing of nearly 2% at a by-election. Party leader Deb Frecklington would nonetheless be relieved by the result, since a defeat in Currumbin, which a pre-election poll suggested was in prospect, would surely have imperilled her leadership, despite her being able to point to the highly unusual circumstances in which the election was held.

• Speaking of which, I offer the following numbers on the ways the enrolled voters of Bundamba and Currumbin did and didn’t vote, with the qualification that there is an indeterminate number of postals still to be counted — perhaps rather a few of them, given I understood that there had been a surge in applications (although it seems a number of applicants never received their ballots).

Finally, a few thoughts on the situation in the United States, elaborating on a subject covered in yesterday’s post here by Adrian Beaumont – you are encouraged to comment on that thread if you have something specific to offer on matters American, and in particular on Donald Trump’s confounding opinion poll bounce over the past few weeks. I sought to put the latter event in context in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, the key feature of which is the following comparison of his approval rating trend, as measured by FiveThirtyEight, with comparable trend measures of my own for Angela Merkel, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron and Scott Morrison.

The upshot is that leaders the world over are enjoying a “rally around the flag” approval bounce, and that Donald Trump’s looks meagre indeed compared with his colleagues across the Atlantic. I feel pretty sure that the lack of a clear bounce for Scott Morrison is down to the fact that there have been no new numbers since Essential Research’s poll of over a fortnight ago, with the surges for Merkel, Johnson and Macron being concentrated since that time.

It’s also interesting to observe that Trump’s improvement has not been consistently observed. The chart below records his trends so far from this year from the five most prolific pollsters. For some reason, Rasmussen, the pollster that is usually most favourable to him — and which is accordingly the most frequent subject of his vainglorious tweets on the odd occasion when it reaches 50% — has in fact found his approval rating going in the direction he deserves. There is also no sign of change from the Ipsos series. However, the improving trend from the other three is more in line with the many other pollsters included in the FiveThirtyEight series, hence its overall picture of his best ratings since his post-election honeymoon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,303 comments on “Something for the weekend”

  1. The pattern, in case Clem has not quite spotted it, is the trails of political wreckage on the left side of politics.
    By the way Clem, what about those Rolls Royce jets engines? Made the comrades’ Migs go zooooooooooooom!

  2. Clem would have been a Nader backer, I assume.
    Nader helped sink Gore and get the Bush family up for a decade of mayhem and destruction.
    Not a problem… for Clem and the Naderites.
    Write that one off to experience and everyone else’s suffering as well, eh, comrade?

  3. So Ohbiden’s senility is an alt right meme? Ha, ha, ha. No it’s a mainstream meme. How could it not be, the guy is unable to put a coherent sentence together. Why have his handlers put him into witness protection do you think? Why don’t they want any more debates? Watch the clips on You Tube. This fake news stuff coming from the Groupers on here is Trumpian.

  4. I’m glad that Clem ain’t a member of the Labor Party any more.

    Imagine attending branch meetings with that insufferable bore.

    Both Clem and the Labor Party are better off without each other.

    Now, run along and join Peggy’s branch of the Greens. Please. You know you want to … I’ll even through in a cask of Bartolli’s finest tawny Port for you if you did …

  5. Woolworths has found a way to cheer up people who are disappointed at finding bare toilet paper shelves. In their local store half the toilet paper shelving has been stacked with easter eggs.

  6. clem
    Sanders is a self-absorbed, selfish loser. The American voters just do not want him. He is jetsam on the low tide of history. Gone. Loser. Lost. Get used to it.
    Which two of Bernie’s three houses should be nationalized and given to the homeless, in your honest opinion?

  7. Thanks Boerwar and C@tmomma.

    C@t, first I’ll have to be able to look after her. At this stage all I’ve got is the photo.

  8. Rolls Royce engines is all you have got Boer. Not too many confirmed deaths of British soldiers from MIGs methinks. And you accuse me of clutching at straws. Still I’m glad that you draw inspiration from the senile candidate. Boer sings “nothings gunna stop me now” to himself. Ha, ha!

  9. I don’t know, you are a landowner. which of yours, will you be donating? BTW, how many properties does Ohbiden own? Just don’t ask him, cause he would never remember. Ha, ha!

  10. Clem

    Nader – wrecker, Corbyn – wrecker, the SYRIZANs – wreckers, Sanders – wrecker…. losers and wreckers, losers and wreckers; spot the pattern. They all KNEW they were right. Except they were ALL wrong and wreckers.

  11. Oh my. Boer really has thrown a sprocket hasn’t he. Time for a good lie down and a cup of tea with a biscuit. You have a had a big day.

  12. C’mon Clem, Give Bernie a clue. Which two of Sanders’ houses should go to the homeless? Because right now he is politically grandstanding about how he is the greatest hero of the downtrodden during the pandemic. Or do you think it is OK for him to bullshit on above progressivism while carrying on like a greedy Neo-Liberal?
    Just your honest opinion will do.

  13. Joe Biden has typically sided with the most powerful interests in society to the detriment of the people; he has dementia; he is a credibly accused rapist; his family have been cashing in on his political career for decades. He is an exceptionally weak candidate, and it would be a colossal mistake for Democrats to put him forward as the face of their party. If he is the nominee, the Democrats would be at a high risk of losing, and they would deserve to lose.

  14. As Boer is wheeled off to bed, “Attee, Clem, Migs, Sanders, losers, wreckers, Biden, my inspiration, where is my teddy.”

  15. ‘Nicholas says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 8:24 pm

    Joe Biden has typically sided with the most powerful interests in society to the detriment of the people; he has dementia; he is a credibly accused rapist; his family have been cashing in on his political career for decades. He is an exceptionally weak candidate, and it would be a colossal mistake for Democrats to put him forward as the face of their party. If he is the nominee, the Democrats would be at a high risk of losing, and they would deserve to lose.’

    Another closet Trump supporter! You can’t have it both ways. You either support Biden (Bernie is in the trash can of history but cannot admit to himself that he has now been rejected twice by the US voters) or you support Trump.

    You do realize that US elections are binary choices – generally between the not so good and the absolutely criminal shocking?

  16. What is abusive about it? I think it’s great that everyone can get involved in political debate regardless of their mental state. You agree by supporting Ohbiden.

  17. Confessions @ #2190 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 8:06 pm

    JUST. GO!! For god’s sake he’s truly an embarrassment now, and even worse just selfish continuing with this vanity project, forcing people to go out and vote when they should be self isolating at home.

    A small group of Bernie Sanders’s top aides and allies — including his campaign manager and his longtime strategist — have encouraged the independent senator from Vermont to consider withdrawing from the presidential race, according to two people with knowledge of the situation.

    The group includes campaign manager Faiz Shakir and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), a top Sanders surrogate and ally, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive private discussions.

    Sanders himself has become more open to the prospect of dropping out, according to one of the people with knowledge of the situation and another close ally, especially if he suffers a significant defeat in Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary, which polls suggest Joe Biden will win handily.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/some-top-sanders-advisers-urge-him-to-consider-withdrawing/2020/04/04/224d8164-767f-11ea-85cb-8670579b863d_story.html

    His ego will find another reason to stay in.

  18. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 8:26 pm

    Clem
    Tell me, do you always use people who need care and carers as an abusive pejorative?
    Not very progressive of you.

  19. Nicholas. Mate. Stop disgracing yourself while you can. That is simply an appalling post. Even for a vexatious ideologue like you. Pull your head while you can.

    Just to make you smart a bit more: if sleepy joe does infarct his numbers and momentum will simply shift to Andrew Coumo: Bernie has been weighed in the balance by real democrats and he’s been found … wanting.

  20. Nicholas is a Bernie Bro from waaaay back. He’ll find it almost impossible to kick the habit. Nicholas was the one who spent literally months here boosting that woman economist as Bernie’s running mate.

  21. I’m sure looking forward to being pop/grandpa, Boerwar.
    This bloody virus is really f@?king with my sanity though.
    I took a punt on taking my leave early to hopefully get through the peak.
    Who knows.

  22. Aqualung @ #2210 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 8:17 pm

    Thanks Boerwar and C@tmomma.

    C@t, first I’ll have to be able to look after her. At this stage all I’ve got is the photo.

    Plenty of time then for you to go out and support the local economy by finding her a stuffed toy bus to play with! No gender-defined toys for a Progressive Girl. 🙂

  23. Peggy Lee outshines philosophers – a pretty simple message.

    ______________________________________________________

    Young clem, please stop being incomprehensible. Perhaps you need to be ‘wheeled off’?

  24. Bernie is running third behind “no one” with 0% chance of winning a majority of delegates according to 538 polls. And all his foolish followers can do is bag the primary winner.

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