For all that our world may have changed over the past three weeks, Newspoll has not: The Australian reports the latest result has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49. There has, however, been primary vote movement in favour of the major parties, with both up by two points: the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 36%. The Greens are down one to 12%, One Nation unchanged on 4% and others down three to 8%.
As with Essential Research, Scott Morrison has recovered somewhat from his post-bushfire slump, with his approval rating up three to 41% and disapproval down five to 53%. He now holds a 42-38 lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister, who led 41-40 last time. Albanese’s net rating has also improved, his approval rating up one to 40% (The Australian report says down three, but I believe it has its wires crossed from the preferred prime minister movement) and disapproval down four to 40%.
In other findings, 75% support the government’s decision to abandon a budget surplus in favour of economic stimulus; 51% believe the federal government has managed preparedness for the crisis well; 66% are satisfied with federal and state government efforts to inform the public about the virus; but only 47% feel the same way about managing its economic impact.
UPDATE: The Australian’s reportage rather downplays the fact, but the poll found only 33% were satisfied with the economic response of governments (the question emphasised “both federal and state”) to the coronavirus outbreak, with 47% dissatisfied. The 75% rating in favour of stimulus did not relate specifically to the government’s policy, but to the general notion that “the Morrison government should provide a stimulus package to safeguard the economy”, with only 14% favouring the alternative option that it “should prioritise its promise to deliver a budget surplus”.
For the other questions, 76% of respondents were worried about the economic impact of the outbreak, versus only 20% for confident; 51% were worried, and 47% confident, about the preparedness of the public health system, for which 51% were satisified with the federal and state government response and 33% dissatisfied; and 63% were confident, and 35% worried, about “the amount of information available to Australians about how to protect themselves”, for which 65% were satisfied and 28% dissatisfied with the federal and state government response.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1501.
lizzie @ #1041 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 10:20 am
Self-entitled idiots. Or is that a tautology?
The nobility of this deed should not be overlooked c/- Guardian:
[Crown Resorts extended the closure of every second poker machine to its Burswood casino]
I estimate that at least half the world’s countries are, de facto, going to do herd immunity.
They will do so, not because they particularly want to, but because they do not have the infrastructure or the governance or the resources to do anything else.
Firsty on the virus.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/17/coronavirus-diaries-everyone-is-frightened-and-its-getting-weird-now
The universe will be happy
Australia has officially stopped playing cricket
Boerwar @ #1049 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 10:28 am
It sounds like there won’t be any testing done. If it’s not coronavirus, they may have to do it all again if the real thing strikes. Repeat.
How many people have the sick leave or other resources to get through a couple of false alarms?
Boerwar @ #1046 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 10:26 am
How could anyone be impressed by someone who plays second fiddle to Trump? Maybe he was betting on Trump dying in his first term.
It’s Time
The policy in the UK seems to be that they will only test if you are likely to end up in the hospital.
NewsCorp shares trading 11% higher
All the talk about Coles and Woolies delivering …..
My friend lives in a fairly isolated village in Tassie.
The only shop in the village has very limited basic supplies and also serves as a cafe and Post Office.
She does not drive and at present lives on her own with a dog and cat. Her sister will join her in a year or so and she does drive. There is no public transport to the next large town.
She has been using Coles deliveries and after an online chat they are going to look into her case. Otherwise life is going to get almost impossible for her.
The Morrison Government could do something fairly nifty here: get tens of thousands of Australia’s unemployed into harvesting. Win win. It would require some fairly smart organization, some subsidies, and probably some support for LWAH/travel for people temporarily moving from the Urbs to the Rural areas. It is the sort of thing that happened with the Women’s Land Army in WW2 so it is not even unprecedented or uncharted.
Given that Morrison Government competence is required, my guess is that it will not happen.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/harvests-could-be-lost-if-travel-restrictions-lead-to-labour-shortages-on-australian-farms
If Dr Wombat could show ONE thing I have advocated here over the last couple of weeks…
● Social-distancing, including trying not to breathe the exhaled air or snot of others,
● Frequent handwashing (including a practical guide to making the WHO-recommended alcohol wash formula),
● Over-reaction in cases of doubt or lack of digestible information being preferable to under-reaction,
… that would ADD to the rate or numbers of infection, he might have a point about “bullshit yammering”.
Although I deny being racist (and have tried to give reasons and argue my case, rather than just blurt out labels and accusations willy-nilly), what would it matter if I was, or had been?
The end result would have been the same: social distancing (for good reasons or bad) can only ever slow down the community-wide spread of the disease. It can NEVER speed it up.
Secondly, the world is full of experts – medical and political – who reckon that, out there somewhere, there is a mystical “proportionate response”, a “Goldilocks Strategy” that gets everything perfectly balanced.
Bonus points: You get to “tut-tut” when the response is “too cold”, and mock others when it’s “too hot”.
The only problem with this scenario is that when there is…
● no, conflicting, or overly-technical information, complicated by irrelevant political or economic considerations all in play at the same time,
● when the recommended government web site tells you nothing of any value or detail,
● there are few other web sites that do, or that collate such information,
● when six politically appointed state CMOs, and one politically appointed Commonwealth CMO are all contradicting each other,
● when “TV doctors” contradict all of the above,
● when broadcasters like Alan Jones (YOU may not listen to him, but millions do) say it’s all Fake News,
● when every country in the world is on the nightly news disagreeing with every other country,
… the punters can’t really be blamed for taking the law into their own hands, voting with their feet, and panicking to a greater or lesser extent.
If the result is Mummy Bear’s – “too hot” – then all that can do is increase social-distancing. Why is this bad? Why is it laughable? Who REALLY knows what the mystical “proportionate response” is? Many seem to know – instinctively, presumably – what it isn’t. But who wants to stick their neck out and give us the Magic Balance?
Why is it bad for fathers to take their kids out of school, even IF it’s contrary to current public policy? Why is hoarding evil, when it is likely to make later shopping runs (when the virus really takes hold) less frequent? If there no information that can either be useful, or relied upon, people have no choice but to act on their own instincts.
There’s a lot to be said for the herd instinct, as well as said against it.
1.5%/week….after one year the value would reduce by slightly over 1/2…roughly
We were saying the other day we have had fire ,floods when was the famine coming,well it’s possibly on its way,
All the food that needs picking digging and harvested with overseas and seasonal workers not coming.
Somethings are going to get harder to get .
Mostly left to rot .
Boerwar @ #1044 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 10:24 am
That’s correct up to a point. With short-selling your losses are potentially unlimited (as opposed to when you go “long” on a stock, and your maximum losses are whatever you spent buying the shares).
Conceptually a short sale has you “borrowing” shares from someone who owns them and immediately selling them. At some point you have to return however many shares you borrowed. If the stock has been trending downwards, no big deal; you use some of the funds you got when you sold the shares and keep whatever is left over as your profit.
But if the stock has gone up then you need to go out of pocket to return the shares. If it’s gone way up, and keeps going up, and you shorted a huge volume of shares, you’re screwed. And the math means that no matter how much cash you kept on hand to cover potential losses, you actual losses can always exceed that amount (as in, it’s always possible, if not always likely).
Yay! I got 3 tins of canned tomatoes from the local petrol station Kwik-e-Mart. And they were on special too at $1 a tin! They also had canned champignons on special, if anyone is interested. 🙂
Coles Woy Woy is getting a very denuded look. They need those extra overnight shelf stackers stat!
First Michael Flynn getting a “pardon” ???? …. and now this – Trump clearing out the trash whilst the public is distracted by C-19
AG Bill Barr moves to drop charges against ‘Putin’s Chef’: DOJ claims the reason why is classified
“The U.S. Justice Department moved Monday to drop its two-year-long prosecution of a Russian company charged with orchestrating a social media campaign to interfere in the 2016 U.S. presidential election,” The Washington Post reported Monday evening. “The stunning reversal came weeks before the case — a spin off of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s probe — was to go to trial.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/ag-bill-barr-moves-to-drop-charges-against-putins-chef-doj-claims-the-reason-why-is-classified/
Player One @ #1045 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 11:24 am
To
As a long term policy design I prefer policies that pivot towards a jobs guarantee.
However, given the looming dislocation of the economy because of the likely sustained periods of mass isolation I think there should be an immediate implementation of a UBI for a period of up to 6 months.
The amount should be $350 per week. It should apply to Newstart recipients in lieu of Newstart and also sickness beneficiaries in lieu of the sickness benefit.
It should apply generally in the community except for self funded retirees and pensioners (whose benefits are still higher and whose Financial position is effectively covered during this period anyways).
It should be funded by quantitative easing.
On top of that the government should be rolling out ex gratia payments to businesses whose turn over has been destroyed by the economic dislocation. Again paid for by quantitative easing.
autocrat @ #1068 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 11:59 am
To who?
Player One @ #1070 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 12:02 pm
No, it’s “to whom”.
ar
Stop losses covers your point, I believe.
The coming cold and flu season is worrying epidemiologists as a potential exacerbating factor for coronavirus.
But won’t social distancing and handwashing campaigns also tend to reduce the spread of flus and colds as well?
Silver lining?
Morrison and Hunt and last night Colbeck love to play this little game where they are beating the rest of the world by moving early or whatever. They do comparative country bragging to demonstrate how competent and concerned they are. All we have to do is trust them.
Well here is something that you will not hear Morrison (the most corrupt prime minister since Federation), Hunt, Dutton, Colbeck or Murphy bragging about.
Only 13 countries had more daily new cases than Australia (101) yesterday.
That is, of course, as tested.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
RI
1.5%/week….after one year the value would reduce by slightly over 1/2…roughly
——————-
Thanks RI. Thankfully there are the kind arms of Centrelink to fall back into.
autocrat @ #1071 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 12:03 pm
Oh, very funny Mr Whom! 🙂
I managed to snaffle a pack of toilet paper at Hilton IGA this morning, about 20 people waiting for the doors to open, everyone calm and friendly which has been my experience everywhere in the Fremantle area when out shopping.
A healthy dose of peace, love and hippy beads goes a long way in times like these.
As someone who has become very cynical and disillusioned with humanity over my 60+ years on the planet I have been very impressed with the care and consideration shown by the vast majority of people.
I think I even like them.
a r:
The alternative is to buy put options. If they expire out-of-the-money then your exposure is just what you spent on the options. Of course this does limit your upside as well.
A second alternative is to sell short but buy call options to cover your short selling, at whatever price you want based on how big a loss you’re willing to risk.
The US figures seem suss. Yesterday there were just 10 cases listed as critical, today there are 19 deaths. Possible, but unlikely.
Anthony Scaramucci: “Donald Trump is the virus,” and he should be put under verbal “quarantine”
President Donald Trump is “the virus” threatening America’s economy during the coronavirus outbreak, and he should be put under a “verbal communication quarantine to help out the nation,” former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci told MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough on Monday.
“The next thing that the market knows — and people are starting to figure this out now — is that Donald Trump is the virus,” Scaramucci said to Scarborough. “At the end of the day, what he’s done is affected and replicated through the executive branch, and he’s destroyed the crisis management elements of the executive branch that we need right now.”
https://www.salon.com/2020/03/16/anthony-scaramucci-donald-trump-is-the-virus-and-he-should-be-put-under-verbal-quarantine/
Worldometer has serious/critical cases as relatively flat by number.
We still don’t have any published figure in Oz for this so not sure how representative it can be.
If anyone needs hand sanitiser, try places that sell safety equipment (like hard hats, hi-vis vests, and so on). Someone I know who runs such a business told me they could get it, no problem. In particular, they have 5 litre bottles of the stuff which they can’t shift because everyone only wants the little bottles.
Mind you, that was a week ago, so thinks might have changed.
The US is storming up the leaderboard now that they are doing some testing:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The UK is lagging but they are not into much testing.
lizzie:
[‘@ItaButtrose’s suggestion this morning, it’s high time for a daily #COVID19Aus briefing from one agreed-upon figure, be it CMO Brendan Murphy or whomever. A fixed time. Every day.’]
The best suited to do this is the straight-talking, erudite Norman Swan. Murphy’s almost hopeless.
Self-check
Worldometer says we have one serious/critical case.
How does that work and what does it mean?
‘Mavis says:
Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 12:27 pm
lizzie:
[‘@ItaButtrose’s suggestion this morning, it’s high time for a daily #COVID19Aus briefing from one agreed-upon figure, be it CMO Brendan Murphy or whomever. A fixed time. Every day.’]
The best suited to do this is the straight-talking, erudite Norman Swan. Murphy’s almost hopeless.’
He can’t even get being hopeless right.
‘Shellbell says:
Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 12:27 pm
Self-check
Worldometer says we have one serious/critical case.
How does that work and what does it mean?’
That would be Bowtell on Q&A.
shellbell
😆 I’m not sure what you call it but that is definitely a classic of its kind by Crown.
Mavis @ #1086 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 12:27 pm
I agree 110%.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 7:56 am
Cud Chewer @ #865 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 7:50 am
Well, Bernie Sanders certainly didn’t have the key to getting new people out to vote. Less have come out for him in 2020 than in 2016. Hmm, maybe it was his policies?
And it may have been everyone thinking that Biden is more electable?
Did you see all the interviews done with voters who said “I wanted to vote for Sanders because of his policies.. but..”
And did YOU see the interviews with the voters who were openly hostile to Sanders’ health policy?
——————————————————————
Given what’s happening in the United States and the entire world right now, only the terminally stupid would be hostile to Sanders’ health policy.
Seapooch says:
Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 12:14 pm
I managed to snaffle a pack of toilet paper at Hilton IGA this morning, about 20 people waiting for the doors to open, everyone calm and friendly which has been my experience everywhere in the Fremantle area when out shopping.
A healthy dose of peace, love and hippy beads goes a long way in times like these.
As someone who has become very cynical and disillusioned with humanity over my 60+ years on the planet I have been very impressed with the care and consideration shown by the vast majority of people.
I think I even like them.
Likewise at the S Freo shops yesterday. They were busy. Staff exhausted. Some things sold out but plenty of fresh items. No panic. Mainly regret.
beguiled
You have described many people 🙂
US voters are being stupid. In Republican states like Mississippi exit polls showed voters agreed with Sanders policies.
They voted for Biden. Fear makes for stupid decisions.
I was also told today that if you want toilet paper to check out the commercial supply businesses. Not the highest quality but big rolls, big packs, relatively cheap.
Also I would be checking out novelty toilet paper sellers. Surely there’s some with Scotty from Marketing’s face on it? Or, worst case, Trump. 🙂
beguiledagain @ #1092 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 12:31 pm
That’s America for you. 😀
Someone said that Murphy was on Alan Jones show this am and made no real attempt to argue with his rubbish.
lizzie @ #1097 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 12:35 pm
So, he’s just another Morrison Public Service puppet? Great, just what you need at a time like this. 🙄
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/17/australia-coronavirus-live-updates-nsw-victoria-qld-quarantine-self-isolate-update-woolworths-coles-shopping-schools-latest-news-update
No Cricket and new stimulus package covered.
Boerwar:
[‘He can’t even get being hopeless right.’]
Agree. Murphy’s politically compromised and his utterances have been all over the place. Swan, on the other hand, is a free agent, unafraid of crossing Morrison and his discredited, corrupt crew. He also cuts through with his messaging, generally free of medicalese.