Essential Research: carbon, coal and coronavirus

A quick look at this week’s Essential Research report, and a deeper one at last week’s ANU survey on the impact of the bushfires.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research finds 75% support for a net zero carbon pollution target by 2050, with only 25% opposed; 32% wishing to see coal-fired power plants phased out as soon as possible and another 47% wanting an end to subsidies and government support, compared with 21% wanting government support for both existing and new plants; and 80% support for the government preventing people entering the country from China due to coronavirus, with only 6% opposed. There are further questions and breakdowns in the report, but not a lot to get excited about on the whole – I can only beseech the pollster to bite the bullet and get back in the voting intention game.

To add more meat to this post, I will instead probe deeper into the report on the political impact of the bushfires published last week by the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods. This was based on a regular panel survey conducted by the centre on a roughly quarterly basis, largely dealing with questions such as satisfaction with governments, public institutions and life in general. Since most of the respondents had also completed previous surveys, the report is able to explore changes in voting intention and attitudes over time. On this occasion, the survey was supplemented by questions on respondents’ exposure to the bushfires.

The study found a slump in electoral support for the Coalition, from 42.6% in the October survey to 37.2%, with Labor up from 33.7% to 35.8%, the Greens up from 14.4% to 14.7% (which is obviously too high at both ends) and others up from 9.3% to 11.2% (after excluding non-respondents, of which there were 5.1% in October and 6.6% in January). However, it did not find evidence that the fall in Coalition support was particularly pronounced among those who had been exposed to the bushfires.

Some of the factors that did associate with defection from the Coalition suggest an intensification of trends evident at the election, with university-educated voters more likely to have abandoned the Coalition and voters aged 75 and over less likely to have done so. However, the Coalition had a particular drop in support outside capital cities, though not in a way that suggested exposure to the fires was the reason. Out of the sample of 618 Coalition defectors, 43.9% supported Labor, 14.3% the Greens and 24.7% others, with the remainder uncommitted.

Consistent with the findings of the Ipsos Issues Monitor survey in January, the number of respondents rating environmental issues as the first or second most important facing the country rose from 41.5% in the October survey to 49.7%. For whatever reason, there was a significant effect here for indirect exposure to the bushfire (having friends or family whose properties were damaged or threatened, having travel plans affected, or exposure to smoke or anxiety), but not for direct exposure. However, as the report notes, what the survey registered as concern for environmental issues extended to blaming “the greenies” for the extent of the fires.

Support for new coal mines was down from 45.3% in the June survey to 37.0%, with the fall particularly pronounced among Coalition voters, down from 71.8% to 57.5%. However, those directly exposed to the bushfires who had expressed support for coal mines in June were relatively resistant to this trend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Essential Research: carbon, coal and coronavirus”

Comments Page 13 of 21
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  2. Confessions @ #637 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 9:12 am

    And a friend’s son who is an apprentice carpenter said his employer has received written advice from some authority saying it is illegal (surely not illegal) to pass off the face masks they use in their work as P2 masks. It had me wondering among other things who would police this?

    Masks are virtually an irrelevant aid-memoir – unless you can’t train yourself stop touching your own mouth without one.

  3. i got this from a friend.

    Hi Alfred, I wrote to Albo about Zali’s Bill (and a number of other things) and here is the relevant part of the reply (which I imagine was written expecting distribution) – “As I have said, Labor will be supporting Zali in pushing for debate on her Bill, but the fact is, there needs to be a majority vote of 76 votes to bring on debate. We have 68, Zali has one, and so to be straight with you, unless some government members decide to cross the floor and vote with us, I don’t see how we are going to get to 76 votes, even with the support of the other crossbench members.”

    he’s being coy – steggall has 5 votes : herself, sharkie (co-sponsor), haines, wilkie & bandt, making for a grand total of 73. that leaves it to the “modern liberals”, like jason falinski, tim wilson, trent zimmerman, dave sharma, karen andrews, and their ilk, to put their money where their mouth is. if canavan can cross the floor to “represent” the coal industry, so can the “modern liberals” to represent their constituents & save their sorry asses from the wrath of bruce & sheila next time around.

    with albo backing steggall the heat is on the “modern liberals” like never before.
    this from twitter :-
    Go Mackellar! This is not an empty political tactic @JasonFalinskiMP real people want change and you say you do to. Make something happen. Or we’ll find our own Zali.

    ok, labor stalwarts, your beloved leader is out & supporting the steggall bill. now, who wants to stay on the fence and say nay & who wants to get off the fence, sign the petition & help put pressure on the liberals over climate policy ? -a.v.

    overview of the steggall bill :- https://climate-act-images.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Zali+Steggall+-+Climate+Change+Bill+2020+Overview.pdf

    the full steggall bill :- https://climate-act-images.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Main_Bill.pdf

    the steggall bill petition :- https://climateactnow.com.au/

  4. Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    ·
    1h
    Steve Smith didn’t tamper with the cricket ball…but he knew about the wrong doings, so he showed leadership as captain and took responsibility and stepped down. Scott Morrison as PM didn’t make the sports rorts decisions, but he knew about them. Same same… #auspol

  5. Coercive control is a key part of domestic violence. So why isn’t it a crime across Australia?

    https://theconversation.com/coercive-control-is-a-key-part-of-domestic-violence-so-why-isnt-it-a-crime-across-australia-132444

    Researchers have known for decades most family violence involves forms of abuse other than physical violence, such as social isolation, emotional abuse and financial abuse.
    :::
    In a nutshell, coercive control is a collection of behaviours designed to strip someone of their sense of autonomy and self-worth. Some examples of these behaviours include removing male contacts from a partner’s social media, dictating where and when their partner sleeps and eats, threats of self-harm if the relationship ends, and physical violence.

    Perpetrators are nearly always male. And research by the UK charity SafeLives shows perpetrators can come from all works of life and social demographics.
    :::
    Tasmania is the only jurisdiction to have made certain coercive controlling behaviours (in particular, economic abuse and emotional abuse) criminal offences in Australia.
    :::
    Such criminalisation needs to be part of wider reforms to address the unacceptable reality that a current or former partner murders a woman every week in Australia, and millions of Australians experience emotional abuse by an intimate partner at some stage in their lives.

  8. I heard yesterday that a friend of my son had been retrenched at Christmas from his NDIS job in a small Victorian Central town and that office has now been amalgamated with another at some distance. People are being forced travel farther and farther for what should be local services, while staffing levels decrease a well. No public transport, of course.

    This is Morrison’s calm and considered financial management at work.

  9. Nina Funnell is walk up start for defamation against the Spectator Australia (which will probably fold under the weight).

    She has threatened to sue Adrnt in the past and Ardnt, in a switch to vaudeville moment, engaged Tony Morris QC.

    Be good if she went through with it and she could go Latham as well who is the king of capitulation.

  10. Could some hygiene expert advise me please.

    Are soap-less handwashes as effective as soap and water?
    Is the gel being referred to the alcohol one that evaporates?

  11. Kronomex @ #583 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 8:46 am

    mundo says: Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 8:10 am

    Don’t forget that the NBN has gone from “It will be completed by June.” to, no surprise at all, “…Stephen Rue said the rollout of the $51 billion national broadband network was “well positioned” to be completed by June…”

    You will note that he didn’t say June in which year it will be completed, if at all.

    I repeat, Labor should be mocking the ‘coalition’s el cheapo NBN’ daily.

  12. Hopefully this trend spreads…

    Peter Hamby@PeterHamby
    ·
    8h
    The Arizona Republic will no longer endorse political candidates. Hope more newspapers follow their lead: “Choosing candidates has sometimes inhibited our ability to further the dialogue, because many readers think our endorsements compromise our analysis”

  13. Scott @ #572 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 8:26 am

    mundo says:
    Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 8:08 am
    ‘Labor and @JEChalmers want to replace responsible economic management with a yoga mat, beads and a “wellbeing budget”.’

    It’s chilling how the coalition comes up with these killer lines that end up completely derailing any sensible debate.

    ————————————————

    It called Bellowing
    The advantage that Morrison and his cronies will always have over Labor

    The public seems to like the Bellowing over any facts

    Unless they’re led by someone like PJK….or RJLH…..EGW……..it seems big Kimbo has become the Labor leader template…….

  15. lizzie @ #604 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 6:23 am

    Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    ·
    1h
    Steve Smith didn’t tamper with the cricket ball…but he knew about the wrong doings, so he showed leadership as captain and took responsibility and stepped down. Scott Morrison as PM didn’t make the sports rorts decisions, but he knew about them. Same same… #auspol

    Seems we expect and demand a higher standard from our sporting leaders than we do from our political ones.

    And politicians wonder why the public’s respect for them is declining!

  16. Malcolm Farr
    @farrm51
    ·
    18h
    Christian Porter arguing the Prime Minister not responsible for what happens in the Department of Prime Minister. That could be the ultimate down grading of ministerial responsibility.

  17. Hugh Riminton
    @hughriminton
    ·
    1m
    More than 15 doctors have now died of #COVIDー19 in #Wuhan from treating infected patients. “Some of them were previously healthy and as young as 29” according to an authoritative leaked report #CoronaVirusUpdates

  18. lizzie @ #616 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 6:49 am

    Malcolm Farr
    @farrm51
    ·
    18h
    Christian Porter arguing the Prime Minister not responsible for what happens in the Department of Prime Minister. That could be the ultimate down grading of ministerial responsibility.

    I don’t see why he even needs to make this point.

    Ministerial responsibility ceased to exist for this mob a long time ago.

  21. Half of all Australian year 10 students do not meet the NAPLAN benchmark for scientific literacy.

    Results in Victoria and NSW are even less encouraging, where less than half of year 10 students tested meet the proficiency standard for science.

    There is no difference in the results of boys and girls and experts say the way science is taught in Australia does not reflect how scientific knowledge is actually used.

    https://www.theage.com.au/education/australian-students-failing-science-can-you-answer-these-year-6-questions-20200226-p544mi.html

  22. lizzie @ #649 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 9:36 am

    Could some hygiene expert advise me please.

    Are soap-less handwashes as effective as soap and water?
    Is the gel being referred to the alcohol one that evaporates?

    In general alcohol gel is more effective and faster than washing thoroughly with soap & water, particularly for viruses. The exception is when the virus (or bacterium) is in an organic matrix (like sputum or shit) where the alcohol doesn’t penetrate as well and the physical removal of the bug is more effective. The alcohol in gel kills the virus by dehydration, which requires about 30 seconds contact. Very little of the alcohol actually evaporates, but the gel takes about 30 seconds to dry. Once dried, the amount of virus on the skin has decreased by 100-10,000 times. Hand washing with soap and water takes more than 60 seconds to do the same thing. In clinical practice, alcohol gels are much more practical: one does not have to find a sink and waste 30 sec dozens of times each day – unless shit (or sputum) happens.

  23. This article, from BK’s morning links … is worth a read. As well as being a fairly balanced critique of Labor’s new “policy”, it very simply and clearly refutes much of the nonsense that is spread here on a daily basis by various coal huggers …

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/one-cheer-for-labors-2050-zero-net-emissions-target,13631

    EVER SINCE Labor’s surprise loss in last year’s Federal Election, the party has been in full retreat from its commitment to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement (that is, global reductions sufficient to hold the increase in global mean temperatures below two degrees and ideally no more than 1.5 degrees). Even the catastrophic bushfires of the last six months, arguably the most dramatic manifestation of climate change so far, failed to produce any real commitment to action.

    In this context, Labor’s commitment to a target of zero net emissions has attracted plenty of criticism. The alarmist claims of the political Right, that such a target would be economically catastrophic, can be dismissed as the nonsense they are. Before moving to more serious problems with Labor’s position, it’s worth pointing out the positives.

    Labor’s 2050 target is the same as that agreed by the EU.

    …

    A more pragmatic but politically potent implication of aligning ourselves with the EU is that it will be a necessary condition for a free trade agreement. The Morrison Government is currently trying to negotiate such an agreement with the EU. It is discovering, to its astonishment and dismay, that the denialist rhetoric it adopts at home does not work internationally and that the EU has no intention of allowing its domestic producers to be undersold by climate cheats.

    …

    Similarly, although Labor is backing away from a carbon price, the question “how much will it cost?” has the obvious answer: “much less if done with a carbon price than any other way”. In fact, it is now evident that the benefits of a global reduction in emissions will far exceed the costs to Australia of our share of the task, assuming we take the cost-effective route of carbon pricing, backed up by regulation where necessary.

    The upshot, as the title of the article suggests, is that Labor’s target is not that bad. But neither does it deserve very much acclaim.

  24. a.v.

    The UK has a maximum parliamentary term of 5 years, so a 5 year plan makes sense.
    I can’t honestly see how they can work with 3 year parliamentary terms.
    How does Steggall propose to deal with this asymmetry?

  26. Proof that anything can happen if you wait long enough. Unsurprisingly Republicans were the only members to oppose the bill.

    The House on Wednesday overwhelmingly passed legislation that would make lynching a federal hate crime, more than 100 years since the first such measure was introduced in Congress.

    H.R. 35, the Emmett Till Antilynching Act, was approved on a bipartisan 410-to-4 vote after a sometimes emotional debate in the House. Rep. Bobby L. Rush (D-Ill.), who sponsored the legislation, said the bill will “send a strong message that violence, and race-based violence in particular, has no place in American society.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-poised-to-pass-historic-anti-lynching-bill-after-more-than-a-century-of-failure/2020/02/26/33df91ae-58ae-11ea-9000-f3cffee23036_story.html

  27. rhwombat

    Many pharmacies have run out of hand gel as well as the less useful masks – try $2 shops & hardware places for both hand gel & wipes.

    Methylated spirits is 95% ethanol. Diluted with water down to around 60-65% (2 parts metho, 1 part water, by volume), should do the job if hand sanitiser gel/wipes are not available.

    Yes?

  29. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/cte-discovered-in-polly-farmer-s-brain-in-landmark-afl-first-20200226-p544oq.html

    CTE has been discovered in the brain of the late legendary Australian Rules football player Graham ‘Polly’ Farmer, the first time the neurodegenerative disease caused by repeated concussions has been detected in a player from the code.

    The discovery is revealed in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, in which Farmer is not identified. However, The West Australian newspaper has reported the identity of the prominent Australian Rules footballer whose case is detailed in the journal by Associate Professor Michael Buckland from the Australian Sports Brain Bank.

    Associate Professor Buckland reported the player had been diagnosed with Alzheimer’s at the age of 64 and died in his 80s.

    According to the journal, the family reported anger and aggression issues, personality changes, depression and a deteriorating memory that accelerated in the final five years of life.

    Because CTE (and for that matter, Alzheimer’s disease) can only be diagnosed by brain examination after death, its extent is unknown in Australian contact sports.

  31. Re: the foreshadowed changes to admit evidence of prior sexual misconduct in Child Sexual & Indecent Assault cases:

    Paedophiles’ criminal history will be revealed to juries more frequently under law changes set to be introduced by the Victorian government.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/jurors-will-be-told-about-paedophiles-prior-convictions-under-law-change-20200226-p544og.html

    It has been often said that adducing evidence as ‘tendency’ evidence in CSA cases is very hard.

    Bullshit.

    The 2017 High Court case of Hughes makes it clear (although the HC in its wisdom did then go on too muddy the waters somewhat in the 2018 case of McPhillamy) that evidence demonstrating a sexual interest in children – regardless of any factual variances in conduct or circumstances between the other conduct and the charged conduct is sufficiently unusual as to attract the characterisation of having ‘significant probative value’ and hence being admissible.

    As a prosecutor, I successfully argued for the inclusion of tendency evidence in every CSA cases I prosecuted where such evidence was available – over 50 such cases over a 6 year period.

    However, there was an identified problem with the current arrangements: even if the evidence was admissible, the tendency evidence complainant would still have to come to court and give evidence.

    In most cases I prosecuted the alleged abuse against those complainants were also subject to charges in the indictment, so there was no problem with that. But there were a small amount of cases where the accused had previously pleaded guilty to, or had been found guilty at trial. In those cases it was difficult to simply adduce evidence of those convictions without calling these complainants – in some cases to give evidence all over again. In all such cases, simply raising the issue again with these victims years later forced them to relive the trauma that they usually had gone to lengths to put behind them. In other cases the victim had died.

    In my view it is a worthwhile reform to permit the prosecution to simply tender evidence of the previous abuse IF those allegations had already been proved by either a conviction at trial or a plea upon being charged by the accused.

    However, I do not like the concept of simply tendering ‘evidence’ of mere allegations if those allegations have not already been tested and proven: this would be a naked invitation to a jury to misuse these ‘allegations’ as proof via some illogical ‘where there is smoke, there must be fire’ reasoning process.

    I’m currently out of chambers, so I’ve asked the NSW Labor Parliamentary team to look into this and forward me the bill, second reader and explanatory memorandum asap, so that I can see how far the reforms go. If I don’t get copies I’ll dig into this via the NSW Parliament House website as soon as I can and will report back.

  32. “ Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    ·
    1h
    Steve Smith didn’t tamper with the cricket ball…but he knew about the wrong doings, so he showed leadership as captain and took responsibility and stepped down. Scott Morrison as PM didn’t make the sports rorts decisions, but he knew about them. Same same… #auspol”

    I call shenanigans on PVO’s reasoning process: there is no reason to accept ScoMo’s assertion that he had nothing to do with the actual approvals – he is a control freak and would likely have micromanaged all of the grants processes behind the scenes: all the evidence that has emerged thus far indicates as much …

  33. Crikey.com.au
    @crikey_news

    Well known for being unable to count when it comes to the party room, Home Affairs hardman Peter Dutton, it seems, also struggles with being able to tell left from right, writes @BernardKeane
    https://buff.ly/385kzCp [No paywall!]

  34. Just a thumbs up to the Gel versus soap post…from my clinical knowledge, alcohol gel is seen as more effective these days. And with either technique, or any disinfecting, DRYING is important as the final stop to killing bugs. Bugs like moist…

  35. JM @ #627 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 10:02 am

    rhwombat

    Many pharmacies have run out of hand gel as well as the less useful masks – try $2 shops & hardware places for both hand gel & wipes.

    Methylated spirits is 95% ethanol. Diluted with water down to around 60-65% (2 parts metho, 1 part water, by volume), should do the job if hand sanitiser gel/wipes are not available.

    Yes?

    Of course – to make the original problem disappear – one simply drinks the metho (also known as “White Lady”).

    There are side effect which are similar to reading Poll Bludger when various wars are in progress.

    Can you drink methylated spirits?
    Methylated spirits is ethanol that has additives to make it poisonous and bad-tasting to discourage consumption. Drinking it can lead to headache, dizziness, gastric disorder, nausea and central nervous system depression.

  36. Methylated spirits is 95% ethanol. Diluted with water down to around 60-65% (2 parts metho, 1 part water, by volume), should do the job if hand sanitiser gel/wipes are not available.
    ____
    But the pyridine denaturant STINKS. Which is its job – along with making the alcohol taste terribly bitter.

  38. She has a point, I think.

    @BelindaJones68
    ·
    Hey @JoshFrydenberg
    Just wondering why you think it’s OK to the piss out of other faiths that embrace meditation & yoga so you can attempt to score political points?

    I reckon if anyone used practices or symbols of Judaism for the same reason you’d lose your shit

  39. Senator Rice is making some very good points to the Sports Commission but they are not in a position to agree with her even though what she is saying makes eminent sense.

  40. Interesting technicality.

    Parliament was in caretaker mode when the finally approval was made.

    Paul Karp
    Katy Gallagher has asked Sport Australia when Bridget McKenzie’s office sent back the final list of her decisions on round three of grant funding.

    A brief went from Sport Australia to McKenzie on 4 April, 2019, the prime minister’s office gave some feedback on 10 April, and Luke McCann replies that McKenzie’s final decision came through at 8:46 am on 11 April, 2019.

    Gallagher suggests that parliament was dissolved at 8:30am and “we were in caretaker at that point in time”. McCann says he was not aware of this.

    The Guardian blog

  41. North Sydney pool at $10m is more worthy than the $500,000 for Mosman Rowing Club; the pool does get used a lot, and not just by poncy private school kids

  42. sprocket_
    says:
    Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 10:36 am
    North Sydney pool at $10m is more worthy than the $500,000 for Mosman Rowing Club; the pool does get used a lot, and not just by poncy private school kids
    _____________________
    The ALP front bench swim there?

  43. BK @ #636 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 8:51 am

    Methylated spirits is 95% ethanol. Diluted with water down to around 60-65% (2 parts metho, 1 part water, by volume), should do the job if hand sanitiser gel/wipes are not available.
    ____
    But the pyridine denaturant STINKS. Which is its job – along with making the alcohol taste terribly bitter.

    I always have metho on hand for solvent/cleaning and disinfecting purposes, and never noticed a stink from it.

    Pretty sure the denaturant of choice these days is denatonium, which doesn’t have a noticeable odour, but is the bitterest compound known (to human taste buds).

    Denatonium is water soluble so it just rinses off after the disinfecting is done. Which is good because you definitely don’t want that bitterness getting on your food.

  44. Pretty sure the denaturant of choice these days is denatonium, which doesn’t have a noticeable odour, but is the bitterest compound known (to human taste buds).
    ____
    JM
    It’s obviously a long time since I had a tipple. 🙂

  45. North Sydney pool, even leaving aside its heritage aspect, is very much used by schools (mostly public) for mandatory swimming lessons.

    The changerooms are hopeless and there is very limited disability access.

    It’s an obvious candidate for funding.


  46. Player One says:
    Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 10:00 am

    This article, from BK’s morning links … is worth a read. As well as being a fairly balanced critique of Labor’s new “policy”, it very simply and clearly refutes much of the nonsense that is spread here on a daily basis by various coal huggers …

    ….

    The upshot, as the title of the article suggests, is that Labor’s target is not that bad. But neither does it deserve very much acclaim.

    And you get sick of other posters pointing out that your nonsense, is nonsense?

  47. frednk @ #646 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 10:51 am


    Player One says:
    Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 10:00 am

    This article, from BK’s morning links … is worth a read. As well as being a fairly balanced critique of Labor’s new “policy”, it very simply and clearly refutes much of the nonsense that is spread here on a daily basis by various coal huggers …

    ….

    The upshot, as the title of the article suggests, is that Labor’s target is not that bad. But neither does it deserve very much acclaim.

    And you get sick of other posters pointing out that your nonsense, is nonsense?

    Did you have a comment to make, or did you just feel like making yourself look like an idiot?

  50. a r says:
    Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 11:39 pm

    beguiledagain @ #521 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 9:51 pm

    That’s 125 billion a year; peanuts. It’s a couple of submarines or a few less fighter aircraft.

    And of course medicare-for-all has no real benefits for the U.S. people. Does it?.

    Think your math is off by an order of magnitude.
    ———————————————————————
    I know I wasn’t very good at math in high school. But $1.25 trillion over 10 years is $125 billion a year isn’t it?

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