The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research finds 75% support for a net zero carbon pollution target by 2050, with only 25% opposed; 32% wishing to see coal-fired power plants phased out as soon as possible and another 47% wanting an end to subsidies and government support, compared with 21% wanting government support for both existing and new plants; and 80% support for the government preventing people entering the country from China due to coronavirus, with only 6% opposed. There are further questions and breakdowns in the report, but not a lot to get excited about on the whole – I can only beseech the pollster to bite the bullet and get back in the voting intention game.
To add more meat to this post, I will instead probe deeper into the report on the political impact of the bushfires published last week by the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods. This was based on a regular panel survey conducted by the centre on a roughly quarterly basis, largely dealing with questions such as satisfaction with governments, public institutions and life in general. Since most of the respondents had also completed previous surveys, the report is able to explore changes in voting intention and attitudes over time. On this occasion, the survey was supplemented by questions on respondents’ exposure to the bushfires.
The study found a slump in electoral support for the Coalition, from 42.6% in the October survey to 37.2%, with Labor up from 33.7% to 35.8%, the Greens up from 14.4% to 14.7% (which is obviously too high at both ends) and others up from 9.3% to 11.2% (after excluding non-respondents, of which there were 5.1% in October and 6.6% in January). However, it did not find evidence that the fall in Coalition support was particularly pronounced among those who had been exposed to the bushfires.
Some of the factors that did associate with defection from the Coalition suggest an intensification of trends evident at the election, with university-educated voters more likely to have abandoned the Coalition and voters aged 75 and over less likely to have done so. However, the Coalition had a particular drop in support outside capital cities, though not in a way that suggested exposure to the fires was the reason. Out of the sample of 618 Coalition defectors, 43.9% supported Labor, 14.3% the Greens and 24.7% others, with the remainder uncommitted.
Consistent with the findings of the Ipsos Issues Monitor survey in January, the number of respondents rating environmental issues as the first or second most important facing the country rose from 41.5% in the October survey to 49.7%. For whatever reason, there was a significant effect here for indirect exposure to the bushfire (having friends or family whose properties were damaged or threatened, having travel plans affected, or exposure to smoke or anxiety), but not for direct exposure. However, as the report notes, what the survey registered as concern for environmental issues extended to blaming “the greenies” for the extent of the fires.
Support for new coal mines was down from 45.3% in the June survey to 37.0%, with the fall particularly pronounced among Coalition voters, down from 71.8% to 57.5%. However, those directly exposed to the bushfires who had expressed support for coal mines in June were relatively resistant to this trend.
The Sanderistas have attacked Beazely relentlessly today.
They have absolutely refused to address the issue that Beazely identified: that Sanders has a massive amount of baggage that will be exploited ruthlessly by Trump. Further, that this baggage makes Sanders unelectable as POTUS:
pro commie soviet union
pro ayatollah
pro commie china
pro commie Castro
did not vote for 40 years
‘Pegasus says:
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 9:25 pm
Mehreen Faruqi
‘I’m in politics because I want to shake up the status quo’: The Greens’ Mehreen Faruqi heads to Canberra’
Pity they gave her job to the Bush Rat.
“You mean, like the Labor Right does here, day in, day out, until it becomes so tedious that you just want to slit your wrists at their stupid, self-destructive behaviour?”
Lol! Projection much?? 🙂
Mehreen Faruqi
While All Eyes Were On Dutton, Our First Female Muslim Senator Gave A Powerful Maiden Speech
https://junkee.com/mehreen-faruqi-maiden-address/172349
““The existence of racism, sexism and other discrimination is not new, but what has changed is its legitimisation, normalisation and encouragement in the media and in politics,” Faruqi said. “Political leaders, in addition to their old habit of racist dog-whistling, are now comfortable outright fanning the flames of racial conflict.”
“It’s all well and good for politicians to condemn the most blatant racism, but we cannot allow them to use these public displays of solidarity as cover for their own role in creating and fanning racial division.”
“You cannot condemn racism and then, in a warm glow of self-congratulation, allow deep-rooted structures of discrimination to remain in access to health care and public services, in our prisons and justice system and in our immigration system.”
“The reality is that my presence in the Senate is an affront to some,” Faruqi continued. “They are offended that people of colour, and Muslims, have the audacity to not only exist but to open our mouths and join the public debate. Some politicians call us cockroaches. Some say we are a disease against which Australia needs vaccination. Some, if they had their way, would ban us from making Australia our home.
“So it is with great pride that I stand here before you, unapologetically — a brown, Muslim, migrant, feminist woman, and a Greens senator.”
Faruqi also took aim at Australia’s appalling treatment of asylum seekers, contrasting it with her own experience as a new migrant a quarter of a century ago.
“While I did feel welcomed when we arrived here, migrants coming to our shores today would not be able to say the same,” she said. “The last 26 years have seen governments erode support for newcomers as bigotry and xenophobia have been allowed to flourish.”
Mexicanbeemer
The right wing media doesn’t have the influence in northern England as they do elsewhere. Murdoch hasn’t been welcome in Liverpool since Hillsborough in the 1980s
___________________________________________________________
I think you’re slightly overstating the case there .. it’s not just The Sun newspaper, the other right-wing rags penetrate there – not to mention Sky News
The famous ‘Red Wall’ of Labour seats is spread across an area of around 230 constituencies. There are 4 constituencies in Liverpool
Just down the road from Liverpool, in St Helens, the anti-Labour Brexit swing was half the national size. Next door to St Helens, in Leigh, the swing was full-on and the seat was lost to the Tories (Andy Burnham’s old seat)
In conversation with Mehreen Faruqi, Senate candidate for the Greens
https://www.indianlink.com.au/in-conversation-with-mehreen-faruqi-senate-candidate-for-the-greens/
—————–
Curbing Rising Racism: An Interview With Greens Senator Dr Mehreen Faruqi
https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/curbing-rising-racism-an-interview-with-greens-senator-dr-mehreen-faruqi/
Union leader: ‘There are no jobs on a dead planet’
https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/union-leader-there-are-no-jobs-dead-planet
“Maritime Union of Australia (MUA) Sydney Branch secretary Paul McAleer sent the following message to the Western Sydney climate emergency rally on February 25.”
Yersiree Bob
ARGGGHHHHH!
I understand your concerns Bob, but Keynesian economics is Democratic Socialism!
I remember, at the ripe old age of 16, I acquired a boyfriend. He was a persistent bugger, and I ended up going for dinner at his family home one Sunday, for the family roast (beef, not the family).
My boyfriend, who was older than me and did have a car – the only reason I can think of for why I hung around – had obviously talked to his mother about me.
As I was eating a forkful of something, the woman who became my mother-in-law said to me “I hear you are a socialist. Isn’t that the same as being a communist?”.
I then proceeded to earnestly explain the very big differences between socialism and communism, and how socialism had an excellent democratic wing, as evidenced by the flourishing social democratic states in Western Europe.
Obviously I should have run a million miles!
Monday night I attended my local council’s ordinary meeting to support a motion calling for Whitehorse to declare a climate emergency. Neighbouring Manningham and Stonnington Councils have recently declared same.
The public gallery was full. Councillor presenting the motion spoke with passion and conviction.
Councillors speaking in opposition trotted out the alarmist language line coupled with the need for individual action…..I ride an e-bike, blah blah.
The vote was 3 for, 6 against, 1 absentee. 3 women for, 4 men and 2 women against, including the mayor.
The need for leadership, missing in action.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2020/02/unintended-informal-voting-in-tasmanian.html
Unintended Informal Voting In Tasmanian State Elections
(Highly specialised wonkery perhaps not of much interest here except as a cure for insomnia but I post the link to it anyway as is my tradition.)
From Kevin Bonham’s article
“Yesterday the House of Assembly Select Committee released its report into the Greens’ Bill to restore the House to its pre-1998 size of 35 seats (five divisions of seven). The select committee (3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green), apparently unanimously, recommended that the Bill be passed. Both major parties have already poured cold water on this with Deputy Premier Jeremy Rockliff repeating the mantra that it is not a priority at this time, while Labor have played their usual game of being in principle in favour of things but it never being the right time. It remains to be seen if we even see the Bill again in this term.”
KB
Thanks as ever. I specialise in being a geek / nerd, and really love your detailed and evidenced-based analyses.
Danama Papers
I am warming to the idea of Bernie being the democratic nominee. He is very far from being perfect, and to be honest, I do not have a vote, but if he is the nominee, then he is someone that everyone can get behind.
In fact, any slightly sentient donkey is someone the Dems (and and Americans who still have a brain) can get behind.
Nicholas:
Amongst the highly developed nations, the lowest private share is that of Norway, where it is about 15%
Furthermore, health care spending in Norway is very high, and every other country with a strong public sector involvement has over 20% private spending.
It’s not possible for a $1.5 trillion annual private sector spend to fall to zero (not even if it were made illegal!). It’s not realistically possible for it to fall to $500 billion. Fall to $1 trillion annual private sector spend is the most that would occur under any circumstances; this would bring US into the (top of the) normal range for highly developed nations and is the only significant change at all likely (more likely there will be a continuation of the current mess).
Nicholas:
Amongst the highly developed nations, the lowest private share is that of Norway, where is about 15%
Furthermore, health care spending in Norway is very high, and every other country with a strong public sector involvement has over 20% private spending.
It’s not possible for a $1.5 trillion annual private sector spend to fall to zero (not even if it were made illegal!). It’s not realistically possible for it to fall to $500 billion. Fall to $1 trillion annual private sector spend is the most that would occur under any circumstances; this would bring US into the (top of the) normal range for highly developed nations and is the only significant change at all likely (more likely there will be a continuation of the current mess).
CBS News poll: SC debate watchers most impressed by Sanders and Biden
CHARLESTON, S.C. (CBS NEWS) — It was a debate that viewers said brought clarity, but in which most viewers said the candidates spent more time criticizing each other than making the case for themselves.
And Democratic debate viewers said national front-runner Bernie Sanders impressed them the most of any candidate, followed closely by Joe Biden and then Elizabeth Warren.
Immediately after the debate, CBS News interviewed likely Democratic primary voters across the country who had tuned in.
Sanders was also tops in viewers’ minds in making the case that he could beat Donald Trump, followed by Biden. Fourteen percent said none of the candidates made the case they could win.
A slim majority of watchers thought the debate made the Democrats’ ideas and platforms more clear.
Viewers have some mixed emotions about how the debate made the Democratic voters feel.
Forty-seven percent of Democratic voters say the debate made them feel nervous about the group of candidates they have to choose from, though another 42% say it made them feel optimistic. Most white Democratic voters say they feel nervous, though most black Democratic voters say they are optimistic.
At one point, Sanders was challenged by some of his rivals about his comments regarding communist governments, but most debate watchers say he did a good job explaining his positions.
We asked debate watchers to pick from a list the most memorable moment of the debate. The top pick was Amy Klobuchar saying if the Democrats tear each other apart, Donald Trump will win — far ahead of some other moments.
This CBS News survey is based on 1,554 interviews of U.S. adults who watched the Democratic debate on Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020. An initial survey was conducted by YouGov between Feb. 20-22, 2020, using a nationally representative sample of 10,000 U.S. registered voters, including 6,498 self-identified Democrats, as well as Independents who plan to vote in the Democratic primary this year. Respondents who planned to watch the debate were recontacted for this survey. Only those who watched the debate were included in the analysis. The margin of error is 3.2 percentage points.
https://www.cbs17.com/news/your-local-election-hq/cbs-news-poll-sc-debate-watchers-most-impressed-by-sanders-and-biden/
Peg@ 10.09. I was pleasantly surprised when Kingston Council declared a climate emergency a couple of weeks back. It’s the part of Melbourne I’m originally from, and a very different suburban demographic than the inner city councils that have gone down this route so far. Though nobody has made this point explicitly, Kingston has a strong interest in the issue of rising sea levels particularly. The suburbs south of Mordialloc are barely above sea level now and were built on the once, and probably future, great Carrum Carrum swamp.
“Who the Americans elect as president is their business, not ours,” he said.
“And who we elect as Prime Minister is our business not theirs. That’s always important to remember that.”
________________________________________________
Wise words from Beazley.
I wish bludgers who all of a sudden, seem to think they are expert on US Politics would take note.
Zero Care factor for me. Might take a break rather than read this nonsense for the next 8 months.
Danama Papers
A perfect lead in for me to post some of my favourite music (please scroll past if this stuff bores you).
From the Street Choirs Festival 2016: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERDFCb11y5g
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 4:25 pm
That’s a 12.5 Trillion Deficit to pay for Medicare for All. Bernie must have access to the Magic Money Tree.
————————————————–
That’s 125 billion a year; peanuts. It’s a couple of submarines or a few less fighter aircraft.
And of course medicare-for-all has no real benefits for the U.S. people. Does it?.
max
Whitehorse has a Labor mayor. She voted against the climate emergency declaration, as did the pro-development Liberals.
And some more inspiring stuff:
The people’s flag is deepest red ….
Billy Bragg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEKYQ4GOqmk (According to Bragg, this upbeat version is more authentic than the Tannenbaum version below.
But I love them both!
More traditional:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RouB8iUQzTA
beguiledagain:
I think you’ve beguiled yourself (again) with arithmetic!
There is no problem with fiscal sustainability of universal healthcare as proposed by Sen. Sanders. There is no “gap”
Nor is it reasonable to believe that a properly organized mostly public healthcare system would cost significantly more than $3,0 trillion annually in the US (15% of GDP)
The problem is entirely related to getting from the current mess (which is running at about 18%) to any sensible system. The main factors are:
A – there are a very large number of people (millions) doing jobs in the current US healthcare system that are completely pointless, and something would need ti be found for them to do;
B – political corruption due to money.
Factor A is far more significant than factor B (which might with very strong, skillful and sustained leadership be overcome.
Stupid analogies and a bizarre 1960s view of Scandinavia do not help to elucidate the issues, nor to solve the problems.
Democratic voters are very lucky to have Kim Beazley advise them on Bernie Sanders’ suitability for a general election contest against Donald Trump. After all, Kim Beazley had an intuitive grasp of what Australian voters needed and expected from a Labor leader. That is why Australian voters elected Kim Beazley to the Prime Ministership twice, in 1998 and 2001, and it is why Kim has so much expertise to share about winning national elections. A remarkable thing about Kim Beazley is that he did not merely strike a chord with Australian voters and have a successful two terms as Prime Minister. No, there is more. Kim Beazley also has his finger on the pulse of the United States electorate as well. Lucky, lucky Democratic voters to get this sage advice from a former PM who was regarded by Australians as a strong and persuasive leader.
Douglas and Milko
says:
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 10:52 pm
And some more inspiring stuff:
The people’s flag is deepest red ….
Billy Bragg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEKYQ4GOqmk (According to Bragg, this upbeat version is more authentic than the Tannenbaum version below.
____________________
IF we are going to get all Red Flag then this is more my speed:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3L4YrGaR8E4
Nicholas @ #525 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 11:11 pm
In 1998 Kim Beazley’s Labor ‘won’ by 5,630,409 votes TPP to 5,413,431 ie 50.98% to 49.02%,. Unfortunately due to a skewed set of electorate boundaries, Labor only won 67 seats to 80 for the Coalition. Kim wuz robbed.
beguiledagain @ #521 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 9:51 pm
Think your math is off by an order of magnitude.
And anyways, a simpler way to argue the point is to just pick any of the several Western nations that already have socialized healthcare (of which Australia is one) and note that they’re able to afford the program just fine. Then rhetorically ask “do you really think the U.S. system of employer-sponsored private healthcare is better; would you rather have that for yourself?”
yabba
says:
In 1998 Kim Beazley’s Labor ‘won’ by 5,630,409 votes TPP to 5,413,431 ie 50.98% to 49.02%,. Unfortunately due to a skewed set of electorate boundaries, Labor only won 67 seats to 80 for the Coalition. Kim wuz robbed.
_________________________
It seems perverse but the swing just wasn’t on enough in marginal seats. There was no gerrymandering or malapportionment so clearly not robbed.
Ray (UK)
Just down the road from Liverpool, in St Helens, the anti-Labour Brexit swing was half the national size. Next door to St Helens, in Leigh, the swing was full-on and the seat was lost to the Tories (Andy Burnham’s old seat)
———————————————-
All elections throw up different swings in neighboring electorates but is there is idea as to why those two seats behaved so different?
So, US Democratic Presidents’ age when elected.
Kennedy 43
Johnson 56
Carter 52
Clinton 46
Obama 47
Sanders/Biden 78.
“Democratic voters are very lucky to have Kim Beazley advise them on Bernie Sanders’ suitability for a general election contest against Donald Trump. After all, Kim Beazley had an intuitive grasp of what Australian voters needed and expected from a Labor leader. That is why Australian voters elected Kim Beazley to the Prime Ministership twice, in 1998 and 2001, and it is why Kim has so much expertise to share about winning national elections.”
Kim Beazley won the 2 party preferred vote in 1998. He would of won in 2001 if it hadnt been for 9/11.
Actually there’s an argument Beazley would have won in 2007 as well. Workchoices was poison towards the Howard government. The hardheads in the Labor party thought they would win with Beazley but would win in a landslide with Kevin Rudd so they went with Rudd.
Yabba
The 1998 result was fair and shows the big difference between the Howard and Morrison governments with Howard having a strong backbench team of good marginal seat MP’s something that lacking from this government.
“In 1998 Kim Beazley’s Labor ‘won’ by 5,630,409 votes TPP to 5,413,431 ie 50.98% to 49.02%,. Unfortunately due to a skewed set of electorate boundaries, Labor only won 67 seats to 80 for the Coalition. Kim wuz robbed.”
The reason Labor won the two party preferred vote but lost the election in 1998 was more due to the fact that the vote increased more greatly in seats that Labor already held.
Douglas and Milko @ #519 Wednesday, February 26th, 2020 – 7:41 pm
If there was a “thanks” button on here, I’d give you a couple of hundred for that. 😉
Mexicanbeemer
All elections throw up different swings in neighboring electorates but is there is idea as to why those two seats behaved so different?
_____________________________________________________________
Liverpudlians/Scousers really are a breed of their own politically, being so solidly left-wing. St Helens is “almost Liverpool” in a sense whereas Leigh is more like Manchester. It is also a former coalfield area and as you know the coalfields were roughly 2-1 for Brexit
You know it’s only 30 miles down the East Lancs Road from Liverpool to Manchester, but whereas Liverpool barely swung at all Manchester swung big against Labour
The accent also changes from Steven Gerrard to Liam Gallagher in those 30 miles 🙂
Thanks Ray (UK)
For a small country geographically the differences between two places that look close on the map can be quite wide.
Mexicanbeemer
Indeed they can
To expand a bit on the Leigh coalfield point, 3 of the last 4 collieries in the Lancashire coalfield were in the Leigh area – the Bickershaw, Golborne and Parsonage collieries
From memory they were the last 3 to close
That’s sad about Whitehorse council Peg. Kingston council on the whole seems fairly cautious and centrist with a slight progressive leaning. There is a right wing grouping – including a councillor who stood for the Liberals for Mordialloc at the last State election, and got trounced – and the right wing group voted unanimously against the climate emergency declaration of course. However the centrist progressives won the day.
I heard the labour candidate in one of those seats around Liverpool won with about 85% of the vote.
Plump, well fed Frydenberg had a great time in QT, mocking the idea of a “wellbeing budget”, when he is the Treasurer who has helped to instigate cruel and depressing conditions on the nation.
Yet Josh Frydenburg expects the nation to feel pity for his Stateless mother. 😡
They’re not going to agree they’re corrupt, are they now?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/emails-reveal-morrison-office-s-role-in-100-million-sports-grants-program-20200226-p544n5.html
But if it walks like a duck, and quacks like a corrupt duck….
I think my mouth dropped open as I watched this example of privileged thinking.
Steve777 says:
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 8:40 pm
” The Greens will phase out the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount to ease pressure on Australia’s unaffordable housing market, generating savings of $119.5 billion over ten years.
The concession would be reduced by 10 per cent every year for five years and would run parallel with the Greens plan to phase out negative gearing.”
Excellent policy.
Lets be honest, the Greens will do nothing. As the greens have no formal policy development process and will never be in power the best one can state is: The Greens web master has posted a thought bubble that states …..
lizzie @ #544 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 7:20 am
People from Sydney and Canberra visit my part of the world so I’m thinking of applying for an Urban Renewal grant.
The Coalition is corrupt.
Barrie Cassidy
@barriecassidy
·
2m
What a rorted system. It’s somehow against “due process” to spend $120,00 to try and save a nursing home in Murchison but ok to spend $10m on a building in the PMs electorate that has already been built.
Bellwether
🙂
Polling indicates Biden is holding out in South Carolina. Super Tuesday should sort out the wheat from the chaff, it’s likely to come down to a two-horse race as Bloomberg’s run seems to be stalling.
lizzie @ #528 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 7:20 am
They still charge them to use the pool.