Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll, the first in three weeks, has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 (though there is a view abroad that Newspoll’s preference model is short-changing Labor), with the Coalition steady on 38% of the primary vote, Labor down one to 34%. There is no evidence of change in Greens support with the change of leadership, which is steady at 13%, and One Nation are steady at 4%. A recent spike in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings has worn off, with his approval down four to 39% and disapproval up four to 44%, while Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 58%. We are told that Morrison has “closed the gap” on preferred prime minister, but must await more detail on that one.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Anthony Albanese maintains a bare 41-40 lead as preferred prime minister, down from 43-38 last time. The BludgerTrack trends on the sidebar have been updated with the personal and preferred prime minister ratings. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1513.
UPDATE 2: Newspoll also has a question that asks whether respondents thought the bushfires were more the result of “global warming and climate change” or “a failure by state and territory governments to conduct adequate hazard reduction in winter to lower the risk”, plus a curious third option of “nothing stands out”. Despite the spikes in concern about climate change and the environment recorded by recent Ipsos Issues Monitor and Australia Institute surveys, this poll records 56% favouring the second of the options, compared with only 35% for global warming. However, 43% now favour lowering emissions as a priority over keeping energy prices down (42%) and preventing blackouts (11%), which compares with 24%, 63% and 9% in July 2018, and 41% now say they would pay more to meet emissions targets compared with 50% who would not, comparing with 30% and 58% in October 2017.
nath:
Now you’re in fantasy land! (PSST – who kidnapped “nath”?)
Nath is back in his cage, waiting for his operation tomorrow.
And I’m loving “WARRRL” as an acronym:
– where are you from? I’m with WARRRL!!!!
– the Woman from WARRRL…
Why stop at ‘culturally diverse’, what about intellectually diverse (stupid people are disadvantaged in life) or physically diverse (non aesthetics ) How about quotas for socially challenged (rude) people. Or what about quotas for ……. etc etc.
On the other hand, what about electing people for their policies, not their identity.
There are reports that Hannah Beazley is tipped to replace Wyatt as the candidate for Vic Park. She is a worthy nominee IMO.
Stupid people are disadvantaged in life only by their unwillingness to be smart.
Taylormadesays:
Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 7:18 pm
RI
2028, based on your averages sounds about right for the next Labor victory. You have to give people time to forget the chaos of the Gillard govt.
The majority of the disengaged had no idea as to the identity of Julia Gillard when JG was ths focus of attention as PM, they certainly have less idea now.
We have had an accidental PM since May 18th and the disengaged have no idea, Morrison is hopeless, the disengaged would be lucky to be able to name Morrison as PM, many still think Abbott holds the once esteemed position of PM.
Turnbull has a nil identity, except for perhaps the wife of Lucy Hughes.
PB has more than its share of DPGs, as someone kindly described them yesterday, many of whom are toing and froing in definitive nature, well preserved beneath their self-righteous halos of godliness.
Australia has elected a complete nong, the MSM refuse to report honestly, while the puppeteers, the captains of industry, preserve their preeminence and right to impose their self centred money grabbing ways at the detriment to all and sundry.
No better exemplified by the indignation of having to temporarily shut down Qantas to avert a pandemic, and how will the shareholders possible cope.
Or to discover the banking system is run by a a mob of shetchy wannabe ne’er do well second raters who get to pocket their performance bonuses regardless.
It may be the China predicament, it may something else, but the bloody thing will all tumble despite the protestations of the self-righteous and mighty.
Trump built a bloody wall and half the loons in the USA think he’s a saviour.
Australia is not so lucky.
The parliamentary Morrison government is one disaster from oblivion
Alas, the DPGs will debate the relative oddities of our various political classes while the disengaged will gravitate toward anything else.
It won’t go on forever.
Hmm. It appears nath has said nothing about the rampant nepotism in the WA Liberal Party.
Chilla Porter, former WA Liberal Party President & father of Christian Porter.
How many Courts have been ushered into parliament in WA?
Then there’s the Abetz clan, with outriggers in 2 states!
There’s probably more, but hey, let’s focus on Hannah Beazley. 🙄
——
This is laughable. They must think the voters are gullible…
——
Where would they get such an idea?
They probably think voters would make great pets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HE3OuHukrmQ
I’m not focusing upon Hannah Beazley.
Many voters would make great pets.
Fess,
Trump’s megalomania has reached new heights (or plumbed new depths, I can’t figure out which). He’s going after Supreme Court Judges that don’t rule in his favour now and who dare to write dissenting opinions!!!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/02/25/trump-targets-sotomayor-ginsburg-tweets-seeks-their-recusal-all-trump-related-cases/
I always thought that the only thing that stopped Hitler was that he wasn’t American. Now I fear that an American cannot be stopped who has similar tendencies and designs.
Confessions @ #1095 Tuesday, February 25th, 2020 – 6:36 pm
I listened to it as well and agree with all the points you made above, especially about using Obama to boost whoever the eventual nominee is.
However he gave a pretty distorted view of the success of Democrat v Republican presidents over the last 60 years, claiming that they have only elected 3 “superstars”: Kennedy, Clinton and Obama. By contrast the Repubs have only one of their guys who had any “star quality” about them.
A quick and simple check of the track record of the Republican presidents shows that the Dem guys have done a lot better than the other side’s.
Let’s go through the Republican Presidents since 1960 one by one:
Nixon – hardly a charisma factory and resigned in disgrace before he was impeached;
Ford – was never elected to POTUS and didn’t even serve a full term;
Reagan – OK, he could probably be classified as a star, however his administration was plagued by a variety of scandals including Iran/Contra;
Bush I – another charisma bypass who lasted only one term;
Bush II – was selected by the Supreme Court rather than elected by the people. Was gifted (for want of a better word) enormous political capital after 9/11 and then squandered all of it.
Trump – well, we all know how he turned out.
So, sorry Mr Wilson, the Democratic presidents have a lot better track record and far more “star power” than the Republicans, even if you include “duds” like Carter, and Johnson, who may not have been a “star” but he did enact the Civil Rights legislation. So even he’s left a lasting legacy behind him.
Am I right in thinking that a President is not immune to charges of contempt from the Supreme Court?
Bill Barr has created the perfect shield for Trump to continue on corrupting. There is literally no mechanism by which he can be held to account anymore.
Just caught up with Q&A from last night. Shee-it what a shocker from the Chinese guy!
Also, have a look at the picture of him on here: https://www.abc.net.au/qanda/
I’d imagine if Reichsmarshal Potato had a Chinese half brother, he’d look exactly like that.
Confessions @ #1116 Tuesday, February 25th, 2020 – 10:25 pm
Yes, and Cud’s suggestion of Contempt isn’t even possible any more with a stacked Supreme Court in favour of the Uglies.
Cud Chewer @ #1113 Tuesday, February 25th, 2020 – 7:19 pm
Under what circumstances do you see the incumbent ever getting to that stage?
C@t:
Another term for Trump and how many Scotus judges will he be able to appoint? Ruth will probably retire (or worse) in the next couple of years, there may be another retirement or two. It’s pretty grim.
And then Don Jnr waiting in the wings for 2024.
By threatening the separation of powers. Even the more conservative Supreme Court judges must care about that.
1000 people in lockdown in a Tenerife hotel after one coronavirus case. It’s getting pretty ugly.
Confessions @ #1120 Tuesday, February 25th, 2020 – 10:33 pm
Yes. It seems as though Trump saw that one of Hitler’s major flaws was that he had no natural successor, so once he was gone the whole thing fell apart rapidly. Also due to the court cases brought against Germany. So Trump made sure he had a large family.
Actually, not that he would take any notice, but doesn’t the International Criminal Court have jurisdiction over American leaders?
Surely Trump will go too far and he could at least be tried in absentia there?
You’d think they’d learn the lesson from the cruise ship and disperse people into isolation.
Cud Chewer @ #1121 Tuesday, February 25th, 2020 – 10:33 pm
No, not really.
Sorry, but the sooner Rush Limbaugh pops his clogs, the better:
Rush Limbaugh on coronavirus: ‘The common cold’ that’s being ‘weaponized’ against Trump
C@t:
It’s looking like the only way to get rid of him is by voting him out, and even that’s not guaranteed!
Only a MAGA mob would see coronavirus as a conspiracy against their cult leader.
While I dismiss some claims about Trump’s intellect – he clearly is a genius in his own malignant way – his second term will be very frightening indeed as he enters his mid to late 70s. Mind you Sanders vs Trump is apocalyptic enough.
Personally I blame the centre left for the mess the western world has gotten into. It ran out of spunk sometime in the mid 2000s and this gave space for populist nationalism movements to prosper.
Confessions @ #1127 Tuesday, February 25th, 2020 – 10:46 pm
As Bill Maher says, would he even go then?
C@tmomma @ #1125 Tuesday, February 25th, 2020 – 9:37 pm
That’s really…far-fetched.
I mean, both the part about Trump deliberately having a big family so that he could be “successful Hitler”, and the part where Nazi Germany might not have fallen apart after Hitler killed himself if only Hitler had bothered to set up a successor first. Germany’s military defeat was imminent at that point, Hitler II or no.
Scotty from marketing will use the reprieve from even to pretend having to deliver surplus as an opportunity to go the full Howard in voting buying and neo-Keynesian pump priming spending (not that the latter is a problem if done strategically). There will be baby bonuses and small business fire relief stimulus packages and money thrown at any voters he wants to keep. Boomers get ready for more largesse .
also – I think Dutton today declared himself to be to the right of ISIS and the taliban
a r
That’s really…far-fetched
_____________________
What? C@t’s analysis made perfect sense.
Admiral Doenitz was Hitler’s successor and he did a great job:
https://youtu.be/BYz1ADttI1g
Oh no hang on. I’ve just smoked crack.
I would suggest that the situation in Germany had “fallen apart” irreparably a while before Hitler topped himself.
That’s quite amusing OC. But Doenitz was a stone cold killer and a serious Nazi.
Boerwar @ #1034 Tuesday, February 25th, 2020 – 5:44 pm
So everyone’s just going to let this appalling bit of arithmetic go unchallenged?
The L/NP is taking a do very little approach in relation to climate change, relying on improvements in technology rather than providing Govt leadership.
Labor is being asked to cost its zero emissions target by 2050 now.
The L/NP should cost out its no action stand in relation to fires, floods, health of its citizens, loss of primary industry productivity because of drought, loss of tourist income because of the destruction of native species, loss of export markets because we are seen as high pollution grubs by our traditional trading partners.
That should keep them busy for a while. There is plenty more to add to the list once that info is provided.
nath says:
Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 11:26 pm
Oh no hang on. I’ve just smoked crack.
___________________________
Finally you say something true.
Danama Papers (re: Frederick “Rick” Wilson’s analysis of DEM pres candidates):
I think you should re-read Mr. Wilson’s piece* as he basically agrees with you:
– the last three DEM Presidents to win normal contested elections (no incumbency advantage, no WaterGate) have been “superstar” candidates who were likely to be elected no matter what
– during that time the Five REP candidates elected President have included only one who might be termed a “superstar”
His first point is that the REP party has managed to get at least three mediocre candidates elected, plus one complete nutter (albeit with “assistance”) and has not needed “superstar”-dom to get it across the line.
This is because:
1 – REP is much better at elections (it’s the Presidenting that they find difficult)
2 – REP has an inherent advantage from the EC
DEM can’t do much about 2 currently, but they certainly need to improve in relation to 1, and looking at the situation dispassionately is the way to start.
With current party alignments, DEM should’ve won every Presidential election since 1976 (inclusive) given the demographics; the fact they have only won 5/11 (and 4 of those 5 involved superstar candidates) is a result of very poor political execution (and the EC too, of course).
*Perhaps there’s a longer version in which he is more clear?
Labor needs a new and better narrative to replace the one of “cost”…
E. G. Theodore @ #1140 Tuesday, February 25th, 2020 – 8:42 pm
I didn’t read it, I heard it on a video that was posted earlier on. It’s possible I got the gist of what he was saying but missed the fine detail.
Anyway, as it stands, the Dems don’t have anyone of the calibre of Kennedy, Clinton or Obama in the running for this election. They didn’t have anyone in 2016 either.
Historyintime says:
Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:47 pm
….Personally I blame the centre left
And why not? The centre left is always blamed for everything, regardless of actual causes or circumstances.
EGT
With current party alignments, DEM should’ve won every Presidential election since 1976 (inclusive) given the demographics; the fact they have only won 5/11 (and 4 of those 5 involved superstar candidates) is a result of very poor political execution (and the EC too, of course).
Nah. There is a hard-core Republican plurality that has a high propensity to vote. The Democratic constituencies are far more difficult to organise and mobilise. This defines the political culture and exists despite Democratic attempts to change it. The attrition of the Democratic ranks also reflects changes in the economy – in the nature, locus and terms of work – and the fragmentation of labour. Such changes are not politically-determined. Rather, they determine political dynamics.
I agree RI, the centre left is blamed for everything.
Just look at the PBers going after Bernie! 😉
Some nice shit stirring.. 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vl8TqtyXHro
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/02/23/newspoll-51-49-labor-11/comment-page-23/#comment-3348135
While it is true that the Democrats cannot do anything about the bias of the Electoral College for 2020, if they get both houses, they can do something about it for future years. They can expand the House of Representatives, which automatically expands the Electoral College, reducing bias against the Democrats in both. The current size of the House of Reps was chosen by the Republicans in the 1920s, in place of the gradual expansion of the House of Reps that had happened up until then, to disadvantage the larger urban immigrant Democratic voting states. The Democrats have passed up multiple opportunities since then to reverse this policy change, but have not.
Spray:
I don’t think many people read that user’s regular monologues, but 0.002% of the Oz population comes to approx 500 people, ha ha.
Well the Centre Left did decay in the mid 2000s, too in love with market, supporting the Iraq War, tough on welfare rhetoric etc. I’d add replacing genuine economic equality aims with identity policies, but that’s more of a personal idee fixe. Anyway, put it all together and you have a large part of your base becoming very disillusioned.
And the Centre Left should be blamed as it must be held to a higher standard of responsibility than other ideologies. This is because just about everything good and helpful to people all over the world since he Enlightenment has come from the application of Centre Left ideologies. When the Centre Left is weak the entire body politic and welfare of the people suffers.
Historyintime
You can be pro-market and pro-higher welfare. It is only the free market types that sees government as being separate from the market.