First up, please note that immediately below this post is a new entry on developments in Queensland, which include one and possibly two looming state by-elections. With that out of the way, a brief collection of polling and preselection news:
• In the wake of a contentious poll on the subject for the Institute of Public Affairs, The West Australian has published a WA-only survey on attitudes towards celebrating Australia Day on January 26, conducted by Perth market research firm Painted Dog Research. This found 65% support for maintaining the current date with 21% opposed, breaking down to 55-26 among those aged 18 to 39, 67-20 among those 40 to 59, and 78-14 among those 60 and over. Although substantial, the headline figure is narrower than the 71-11 margin recorded by the Dynata poll for the IPA, which primed respondents with two leading questions on being proud of Australia. This poll was conducted from 842 respondents drawn from an online panel, with no field work dates provided.
• Cory Bernardi has followed through on his announcement last year that he would resign to the Senate, which means his South Australian seat returns to a nominee of the Liberal Party, for which he won the seat from the top of the ticket at the 2016 double dissolution. The Australian ($) reports the matter will be decided on February 1, from a field including Morry Bailes, managing partner at Tindall Gask Bentley Lawyers and former president of the Law Council of Australia; state upper house MP Andrew McLachlan; and Michael van Dissel, former state party treasurer. Bailes has the support of conservatives including Mathias Cormann and South Australian federal MPs Tony Pasin and Nicolle Flint, which is presumably good to have.
• Heavy duty psephological pundit Mark the Ballot examines the deficiencies of polling before the May federal election, to the extent that the industry’s lack of transparency makes the matter knowable. The thrust of the analysis is that the pollsters’ models were “not complex enough to adequately overcome the sampling frame problems”, the latter reflecting the fact that surveying methods in the modern age cannot plausibly claim to produce genuinely random samples of the voting population. As well as the models by which the pollsters convert their data into vote shares, this lack of “complexity” may equally arise from herding, the unacknowledged use of smoothing techniques such as rolling averages, and over-use of the same respondents in online panels.
Maybe we’re not getting the full story:
[‘Nurse treating coronavirus sufferers in China claims 90,000 people have already been infected.’]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7929657/Nurse-treating-coronavirus-sufferers-China-claims-90-000-people-infected.html
When this is over, perhaps eating all manner of animals – eg, snake, bat, live mice – will be looked at.
HIV antivirals are worth a trial. If your patient is dying from pneumonia etc, you don’t have much to lose.
China cut off trains, planes and other links to Wuhan on Wednesday, as well as public transportation within the city, and has steadily expanded a lockdown to 16 surrounding cities with a combined population of more than 50 million, greater than that of New York, London, Paris and Moscow combined.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-26/coronavirus-toll-rises-as-xi-jinping-warns-of-grave-threat/11901246
lizzie
That is interesting behaviour by the fruitbats. In the tropics they routinely use their wings to fan themselves. They they not clump tightly. I assume that clumping tightly and closing the wings like these bats are doing would increase their heat stress. Maybe getting out of the direct sun was the more important consideration?
In one respect the bats are their own worst enemies: they tend to defoliate their roost trees, eventually killing them. Canopy protection from direct sun is reduced over time.
Diogenes:
[‘I too was worried when Xi described it as grave. Normally China trivialised viral outbreaks.’]
Yes, and there’s evidence that the situation is more grave than China’s prepared to admit.
lizzie @ #176 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 12:17 pm
Of course. Labor is in fact riven with internal divisions at the moment. This is quite obvious.
‘Mavis says:
Sunday, January 26, 2020 at 12:56 pm
Maybe we’re not getting the full story:
[‘Nurse treating coronavirus sufferers in China claims 90,000 people have already been infected.’]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7929657/Nurse-treating-coronavirus-sufferers-China-claims-90-000-people-infected.html
When this is over, perhaps eating all manner of animals – eg, snake, bat, live mice – will be looked at.’
It was ‘looked at’ after SARS. The Chinese merely continued to chomp their way through huge numbers of wild creatures – including threatened species.
One suggestion I have seen is that this one got a leg up at a Wuhan wildlife market. I doubt whether the science exists to make that link with any level of probability. It might have been put out and about by animal welfare campaigners taking the opportunity to strike while the iron is hot.
P1′ s Labor slagathon to ‘help’ Labor continues.
The Nationals can barely contain their internal tensions and are, literally, too frightened to sack McKenzie. The Nats are the ultimate climate deniers and they are in a position to deliver all the things that P1 professes vehemently to hate.
What does P1 do?
Same old same old Slag Labor for being ‘divided’. (This one is a repeat slag, BTW)
P1 ignores the Nats.
zoomster @ #177 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 12:18 pm
My problem with Labor at the moment is that they appear to be gearing up for another stab at an “all or nothing, go it alone” election win … and that is all. They appear to have no fallback strategy.
So if they should lose again – which (and let’s be completely honest, here) is currently more likely than not – then we will suffer another 5 or so years of inaction on climate change.
If you view everything through only a political perspective, you may not see this as particularly critical, but it is – we simply cannot afford that.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #182 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 12:20 pm
You need to listen to someone. Labor’s own internal advice has not proven to be very worthwhile recently, now has it?
Greensborough Growler @ #187 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 12:33 pm
The polling just before the last election showed Labor winning in a landslide.
How well did that one work out for you?
Historyintime:
With the resignation of Jann Stuckey (effective February 1), the Currumbin byelection will provide a reasonable guide as to how Labor will go on October, 31. I saw a straw poll in “The Bulletin” on Friday which showed the majors are neck and neck. Labor’s candidate (Kaylee Campradt) has been on the ground since October after hearing rumours that Stuckey was going to pull the pin. Whereas, the Tory’s are yet to announce their candidate:
https://www.queenslandlabor.org/our-people/state-candidates/kaylee-campradt/
Player One @ #211 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 10:13 am
Well if they listened to you they would have voted against marriage equality for a start.
Diogenes @ #203 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 12:02 pm
Is there much basis for thinking they might be effective? Superficially at least is seems like there’s a significant difference in that HIV kills you slowly (and indirectly) while Coronavirus is much quicker.
How much time does it typically take for HIV antivirals to noticeably reduce viral load?
Maybe antivirals are better used as a prophylactic measure for people who were/were likely exposed but aren’t showing symptoms yet?
Barney
Labor has a silo. Or a bubble.
That’s why they lost.
In that Labor bubble the only way to beat the LNP is to copy the LNP policy to make the issue neutral. No consideration of the strength of real strong alternatives.
It’s all buying the right propaganda that Australia is right wing conservative.
These same people said Australians were against Marriage Equality. It was a “Woke” issue.
The survey proved how wrong they were.
Give Australians something real to vote for and it’s clear the issues polling got it right.
Same with Climate Change.
Labor has to stop the LNP narrative of being for the environment is bad for the economy.
The opposite to what BW posts.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #192 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 12:42 pm
No, this issue actually has relevance to most Australians.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/25/26-january-the-ultimate-day-for-toxic-patriotism-is-the-perfect-event-to-call-for-change
Boerwar:
[‘It was ‘looked at’ after SARS. The Chinese merely continued to chomp their way through huge numbers of wild creatures – including threatened species.’]
Therein lies the problem. How do you stop people from eating what they consider delicacies? I saw a woman eating a bat with soup, a man eating live mice, dipping them in a sauce. Snakes are also on the diets of many, with some reports suggesting that the coronavirus is contracted by eating them:
https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/chinese-coronavirus-snake-market-23012020/
Player One @ #212 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 1:15 pm
Another dishonest post by you given I actually mentioned the veracity of polls in my post. Cherry picking doesn’t give you credibility.
Current polls have improved significantly for Labor of late and co-incide with a concerted move by Labor to move to the sensible centre as well as general Government mismanagement. Whether that obvious movement holds up over the entire electoral cycle is yet to be seen. But, I’m more than happy to see it partly as an endorsement of Labor. it’s leadership and it’s approach.
However, your often stated but never sighted “growing majority” for your views is rubbish. Your entire focus on one issue to the exclusion of any other is simplistic, puerile and idiotic.
ar
The evidence is that some HIV antivirals helped a bit in the SARS outbreak which was also a coronavirus.
I’ve got a friend who is involved in disaster planning who said if we get anything more than ten patients in SA we will be in big trouble.
Mavis
European cultures ate what they could catch, until quite recently. Change is possible.
Greensborough Growler @ #220 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 1:28 pm
I could quote you the polling – again – but what would be the point? You clearly just won’t believe it.
As another poster observed yesterday (Confessions I think), there are very few cars or people sporting flags today, unlike recent years. Haven’t seen any. There were a few flags on the Bunnings sausage sizzle stand.
Player One @ #223 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 1:31 pm
70% of voters saying Climate change is the most important issue and then voting in a Government that does not, has not and will likely never have a plan to combat Climate Change makes you think that maybe the respondents were bullshitting.
Steve
Yes. Partly realisation of Invasion Day. Partly association with far right extremism. Partly Australians distaste for overt displays of patriotism due to that extremism being against The Fair Go.
Just like Aussie Oi Oi Oi has fallen into disfavour.
GG
See Marriage Equality survey.
Those issue polls were not far off.
At least P1 seems to have learnt.
Mavis @ #219 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 12:27 pm
Sauce or no, wouldn’t they be full of bones?
Australians, unlike Americans, traditionally had a healthy distrust of public displays of patriotism until recently. Maybe we can hope that this sceptical, healthy distrust is returning.
Player One:
[‘The polling just before the last election showed Labor winning in a landslide.’]
In the lead up to the last election, the best Labor polled was 52 – hardly landslide territory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Australian_federal_election
Think we will have a lot more info in a week or two on just how infectious the coronavirus is. There WILL be tracking going on of people who the identified cases in Australia have been in contact with as well as people they were on the plane with. There will be comparisons done on when they became “infectious” so we will know more about how this behaves quite soon.
Apparently the “DNA vaccine” thing has already been developed for SARS which is a similar virus so people seem hopeful on that front.
Treatment?? Australia is in a pretty good position to do supportive care for anyone who comes down sick.
guytaur @ #227 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 10:39 am
learnt (verb-past simple/past participle) – somebody who now agrees with guytaur.
The last 3 elections the public rejected climate change policies so theres no doubt they were bullshitting.The greed just rose to the surface and they voted with their pockets as usual. “I agree with climate change or tax increases as long as the bloke next door pays for it.”‘I’m alright jack.”You can read them like a book.
Steve777 @ #229 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 1:42 pm
Patriotism has been reduced to virtue signalling entertainment and a televisual social media theme.
a r:
[‘Sauce or no, wouldn’t they be full of bones?’]
When I first saw the pics, I thought he may’ve swallowed them whole, but the video in this link shows him chewing them. He must have a good constitution:
https://www.news18.com/news/buzz/watch-disgusting-video-shows-man-dipping-baby-mouse-in-sauce-and-eating-it-alive-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-2472875.html
Mavis
Instead of being for coal people want a Ross Garnaut style approach to Climate Change.
A sensible centre evidence based approach.
People know power prices are cheaper with renewables.
All Labor has to do is quote the lower power bills under Labor renewable solutions already in place.
Stop using the LNP narrative of climate policy means job losses.
Stupid me. There I was thinking that the ‘majority’ of the electorate, when given the opportunity less than one year ago, voted for the NON Climate Change acting Coalition.
Apparently though, if you believe P1 and guytaur, that ‘majority’ has gone, from the Coalition, bypassed the Labor Party completely, and ended up beyond both Major Parties, and, what’s more, the electorate would now vote for the political party that espoused their views. Motivated only by the issue of Climate Change.
Lol.
Barney
That’s the framing.
It’s why Labor should be promoting the carbon tax.
More renewables. Lower power prices.
[‘Stop using the LNP narrative of climate policy means job losses.’]
I’m not sure I did, guytaur.
Mavis
Sorry I was talking about Labor.
Not you specifically.
Greensborough Growler @ #225 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 1:36 pm
The mistake you continue to make is believing that Labor is universally regarded as being a significantly better alternative on this issue. I’m sorry to have to point this out to you, but outside the insular confines of the Labor party, this is just plain wrong.
More than a third of voters have little or no idea, and a majority either have no idea, or in fact even think the Coalition is better …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/02/one-in-three-voters-confused-about-which-party-has-better-energy-policy
Now do you get it?
guytaur @ #238 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 10:53 am
How do you manage your ego!!!! 😆 😆
The last election started out being about climate change until early February when the ALP choose to make themselves the election issue with Chris Bowen’s ill-considered comments about retirees. Climate change is an issue but we need to remember that most people don’t change their vote and are motivated by their financial wellbeing. The ALP took until the last week to release a decent climate related ad and by then the race was run.
a r
Only teeny bones ,they add a delightful ‘crunch’ to every mouthful. 🙂
Barney
The polling around the Marriage Equality debate was accurate.
It’s why the gap between polling of the Federal Election and the result was a shock.
Displays of patriotism are a right wing virtue signal.
guytaur:
[‘Sorry I was talking about Labor.
Not you specifically.’]
Thanks. I can’t recall ever saying what I was supposed to have posted.
Mavis @ #230 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 1:43 pm
Fair enough. Replace “just before” with “lead up to” …
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-11/26/c_137631628.htm
Mavis, thanks. I can’t get into the Bulletin but maybe there has been some local polling. Also I don’t know the local conditions.
On paper the ALP candidate looks OK. However, I’m very reluctant to go beyond the proverbial ‘fundamentals’. A reasonable expectation in the circumstances is a modest swing against the government.
As to the State election itself, I’m itching to see some polling.
My hunch is that the government might lose, but it might just get back (how’s that for a weasel statement.) It certainly doesn’t yet have the odour of death about it., but it has maybe 6 regional seats it shouldn’t have, and on pretty small margins.
C@tmomma @ #237 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 1:52 pm
You are making the same mistake as GG. See my response to his post.