Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

  1. So what gives with “Total Fire Ban” being declared on a day to day basis?? Surely these bans are going to be in place every day until after substantial rains have come??

  2. Actually, details here …

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/families-stuck-in-mallacoota-after-navy-ships-discouraged-children-under-5-20200104-p53otm.html

    Tim Buckley, who was holidaying in Mallacoota with his Canadian wife and children aged 2 and 5, queued to register for evacuation.

    However Mr Buckley said his file was marked V for “vulnerable”, because he had small children, and was told he would instead be airlifted out of the town on Friday night.

    “One of the biggest ironies of the situation is people who were marked with a V are still here,” Mr Buckley said.

    🙁

  3. Who was the card that sugested Morrison could make Barnaby his Special Fire Envoy?

    I’m sure Morrison would, if he wasn’t rightly afraid that Barnaby would misunderstand the brief and start lighting them himself.

  4. The most gobsmacking takeout from that video is the fact Morrison personally authorised it.

    No where to hide. No one to blame. No get out of jail card.

  5. If the Eden fire keeps going as it is, this may turn the gigantic piles of previously woodchipped forest at the woodchip mill into a giant pyre to Australia and NSW’s decades of ecological idiocy. Burning for days and weeks probably.

    After years trying to end this practice of woodchipping native forest and closing this facility. It would be an extremely mixed feelings in this circumstance to see it burnt down. Fire just a few km away by now it seems.

  6. I am devastated by the form of our PM. Not surprised. Not in joyful optimism that this may see the end of him.
    I am devastated that two utterly contemptible self serving political animals have been elected as leaders of this nation in such a short space of time. That we have lost so many years to these divisive wreckers.
    How did it come to this? How do people get convinced that voting for these pr!cks is a good idea? What does it say about the LNP that they rose through its ranks to the top?

    My only hope is that the Murdoch media is now, finally, seen by all as the propaganda outlet it really is.

    #boycottmurdoch

  7. Ah, Amy 🙂

    Amy Remeikis
    @AmyRemeikis

    I swear to God – we are about a week away from the ‘he sobbed during the fires’ woman’s magazine piece.

  8. Oh dear 😆

    samantha maidenVerified account@samanthamaiden
    2m2 minutes ago
    Eyewitness report: @TimWilsonMP spent most of day lunchIng at Sorrento sailing club & spy says they are impressed he’s activated 3000 troops from Sorrento SC (the ad is not even going down well at Sorrento)

  9. sprocket_ @ #6938 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 8:08 pm

    Speaking of politicians ‘Chucking a ScoMo’ – where is Angus Taylor? His electorate of Hume is going up in flames, and nothing on social media from him since 16 December – until this evening when he retweeted Morrison’s Liberal Party fundraiser.

    Hmm… I don’t post in Shouty Media, but #whereismymember might draw some eyeballs.

  10. god it’d suck to have your house flood atm.
    There’s going to be no help with fixing stuff.
    Only upside i can think of is at least thing s will dry out quick :S

  11. P1

    No need to apologise just pointing it out so you don’t waste your time with what has already been covered.

    Hope everything is as well as it can be for you given your dire circumstances.

  12. The Currowan Fire well into Kangaroo Valley, and now fires at Marulan, Wingello, and three on the eastern outskirts of Bundanoon. Bad. If these are spotting, they’re flying Kms in this wind.

  13. Timing aside, the ad is astonishingly bad (e.g. the jets). I have only seen ones as bad in Campbell Newman’s re-election campaign. In fact, Morrison now very clearly resembles Campbell Newman. He is a fuckwit.

  14. Death toll rises in Indonesia’s sinking capital as flood defences struggle

    Torrential rain has devastated the greater Jakarta region with dozens dead and tens of thousands evacuated from their homes

    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/jan/04/death-toll-rises-in-indonesias-sinking-capital-as-flood-defences-struggle

    The death toll from floods caused by torrential rains in the Indonesian capital rose to at least 53 as rescuers found more bodies, disaster officials said on Saturday.

    The worst monsoon rains in more than a decade deluged Jakarta this week and rising rivers submerged at least 182 neighbourhoods while landslides on the city’s outskirts buried at least a dozen people.
    :::
    Wibowo said about 397,000 people sought refuge in shelters across the greater metropolitan area with some places left 19ft under water.

  15. poroti @ #6955 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 8:25 pm

    Aqualung
    rope ladders ? I saw footage of people being evacuated last night. A walk down the jetty and on the ship walking up a gently sloped ramp at the front of the transfer boat on to the evacuation ship.

    Apologies if already posted. I had the same thought but I think there’s more than one ship involved.

  16. Bushfire evacuees from Mallacoota arrive at Hastings on board naval ships MV Sycamore, HMAS Choules

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-04/bushfire-mallacoota-evacuees-arrive-at-hastings-on-mv-sycamore/11840576

    Emily, Tahnee and their friend, Mallacoota local Darcy Brown, were among 58 people — along with two dogs, a cat and a rabbit — who this morning arrived aboard the Sycamore at Hastings, on the Mornington Peninsula, south-east of Melbourne.
    :::
    A second vessel, the HMAS Choules, arrived at Hastings at about 4:00pm with another 1,025 other evacuees.

  17. Guy from Eden interviewed on ABC at the moment. Not good for Smoko. Very blunt when asked by the ABC anchor what he wants to say to our “leadership”.

  18. Pegasus @ #7026 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 10:35 pm

    Hope everything is as well as it can be for you given your dire circumstances.

    Yes, all is as good as can be expected. Just another night where we have to wake up every hour or so to see if there are any threats. We thought we were pretty safe, having been burnt out weeks ago, and we probably are. But there is a new fire just a few kms to the south of us which – given that the prevailing wind is southerly – is not good news.

    We are just being super cautious.

  19. Morrison doesn’t want to get it:
    Spencer Howson
    @SpencerHowson

    Some solid questioning of the PM
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    today by the ABC’s Port Pirie breakfast presenter
    @PaulCulliver



  20. Simon Katich
    says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 10:29 pm
    ———
    The sailor could probably kill you with her bare hands, Nath.
    ___________________________
    her lethality and cuteness are in no way related.

  21. EMERGENCY WARNING – Morton Fire (Wingecarribee LGA)
    A fire is spreading quickly in the area N of Shoalhaven River. If you are in Bundanoon, Wingello, Penrose, Meryla and surrounding areas it is too late to leave. Seek shelter as the fire approaches

  22. Murpharoo not impressed with the ad:

    Perhaps it was Scott Morrison’s own demonstrable lack of clarity about what his government was, or was not, doing, in response to Australia’s catastrophic summer of bushfires that prompted his communications team to pump out a promotional video – on one of the most perilous days of the disaster – outlining today’s initiatives.

    …A visual aid to explain what the position was this particular minute.

    Because the alternative explanation is Morrison, Australia’s prime minister, just issued a political ad – a little bit of humblebrag, a little moment of self-love, a short hymn of self-satisfaction – in the middle of the worst bushfire event we’ve seen in our fire-prone continent.

    And that behaviour seems … let me find the word … wrong.

    Yes, wrong is the word.

    Wrong.

    Utterly objectionable.

    Objectionable works, because sensible prime ministers know that in times of national emergency, you show. You don’t tell, at least not with a crude bit of agitprop on the Liberal party website and pumped out on platforms.

    You show. Show up, first of all, and you show leadership by actually leading. Not by telling people you are leading. Otherwise you are not a leader. You are an internet meme.

    Dear Mr Morrison. You are the prime minister, not the Liberal party spruiker. We really do need you to understand that difference.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/04/scott-morrisons-political-ad-is-a-bizarre-act-of-self-love-as-firefighters-battle-to-save-australia

  23. Even Greens v. Labor took a hiding today. Nothing like a good catastrophe to stifle the usual trivial diatribes and repetitive shitfights.

    Even Nath self-censored, confining his latter contributions to a bit of harmless but nevertheless sexist ogling at a lady in uniform.

    Well done, Bludgers.

  24. I can’t edit my 11:10PM post to fix the quoting (it claims that the edit is span) but everything from “Might be a full table scan issue.” onward is mine (and should be part of the quote)

  25. Zeh (this is a repeat of the post that seems to have been deleted, with the quoting fixed…)

    E. G. Theodore Thanks for the link

    I can’t tweak the query to speed it up any. I think maybe the Pollbludger comment table is just starting to crap itself under the weight of 3.3 million+ entries

    Might be a full table scan issue.

    Never used mysql nor allowed it be used (cause it looked like crap), but RDBMes typically prevent full table scans (and certain other things) from loading the block cache if the table is above a certain size (X blocks) . This is the proper policy to adopt because db cache blocks are wired not demand paged (and this is also the correct approach). This X parameter can be quite low (for example with Oracle in 1998 the default for X was 16, and the blocksize was either 4 or 8 KB), so a 64 or 128 KB limit. The result in that Oracle case was that queries that ran fine (as running scans from cache) degraded catastrophically when the table size reached the threshold.

    Now the default limit (if there is one*) will be much higher, but 3.3M pages could be about it. The text of posts is probably held out of band, so that they contribute only a constant amount (reference to out of band data) to the table size (short post might be held within the table however, perhaps those with 255 bytes or fewer). Anyway with 3.3m posts a 256MB limit (which seems reasonable) corresponds to about 80 byes per post on average, which seems about right:
    – 8 bytes for some sort of internal ID;
    – 12 bytes for the time-stamp;
    – 4 bytes for a reference to the author email;
    – maybe 30 bytes for the average author text – it probably won’t be a reference since as we know one can write any old crap in the author line meaning that it is stored in line with the post;
    – and then something for post text – either a 12 byte reference or hybrid where short posts (up to 256 bytes say) are stored in line and longer posts are out of line

    Fiddling with the numbers one can easily see 3.3M posts triggering the threshold condition for all sorts of likely values of the parameter between 128MB and 1GB or even more.

    However, I still think it’s most likely a failure of the query optimizer. Optimizers are very fickle and always being improved (indicating there’s always a lot of room for improvement) and what needs to see is the query plan (EXPLAIN PLAN in Oracle, for example) and then to know what query operations are expensive.

    * mysql could well be paged since it originally did not support transactions and the page wiring requirement has do with transaction support and the write ahead log – they do now support transaction, but I suppose they could use shadow paging instead of logging

  26. “ItzaDream says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 11:01 pm
    EMERGENCY WARNING – Morton Fire (Wingecarribee LGA)
    A fire is spreading quickly in the area N of Shoalhaven River. If you are in Bundanoon, Wingello, Penrose, Meryla and surrounding areas it is too late to leave. Seek shelter as the fire approaches”

    Bundanoon and other towns in the vicinity are most pleasant to visit. I hope they are not too badly affected.

    Mention of Bundanoon brings back the most ridiculous memory. I was in kindergarten at the time of the Queen’s coronation and the school had a play where students presented her with gifts from their part of the empire, er, commonwealth. One teacher obviously had a sense of humour (or a dislike of royalty) because my line was “I bring you buns from Bundanoon”.

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