Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

  1. citizen @ #7047 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:21 pm

    Mention of Bundanoon brings back the most ridiculous memory. I was in kindergarten at the time of the Queen’s coronation and the school had a play where students presented her with gifts from their part of the empire, er, commonwealth. One teacher obviously had a sense of humour (or a dislike of royalty) because my line was “I bring you buns from Bundanoon”.

    Thank goodness you weren’t from Wee Waa! 🙂

  2. E. G. Theodore thanks for the technicals, I’m familiar with much of those concepts but have not ever had to mess around with Oracle stuff.
    There is also the WordPress PHP based ORM and API to account for as well.
    I steer clear of MySQL where I can. Running PostgreSQL mostly now

  3. Bushfire Bill says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 11:13 pm
    Even Greens v. Labor took a hiding today. Nothing like a good catastrophe to stifle the usual trivial diatribes and repetitive shitfights.

    Even Nath self-censored, confining his latter contributions to a bit of harmless but nevertheless sexist ogling at a lady in uniform.

    Well done, Bludgers.

    _______________________________________

    Yes. It’s a small bright spot on a difficult day that this place was good to be.

  4. Interesting: Sooty’s Excellent Announcement is rating a 9th order item on all the TV news bulletins I’ve seen. Right down the list of prominence.

    Greg Jennett trying hard for a government gig apres-ABC, a la his predecessor Mark Simkin. You can almost see his eyes moving left to right as he reads the PMO Talking Points spin sheet live to air.

  5. It is hard to keep a balance among the flood of events. Thoughts jump about. I would love to see electorate boundaries showing the names of the sitting MP superimposed on the fire maps.

  6. Comment from this SMH article:

    Does anyone over the age of 50 remember so many hot days in Penrith, when they were a child?

    I’ve used BOM data (link below) to count the number of days with a maximum temperature of 38 degrees or higher, as measured at the Richmond RAAF, since 1960. Here is the result by decade:

    1960s – 44 days
    1970s – 58 days
    1980s – 60 days
    1990s – 65 days
    2000s – 99 days
    2010s – 107 days

    So a maximum temperature of 38 degrees or above is now 2.5 times more likely, than it was in the 1960s.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/stations/

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/hottest-place-on-the-planet-penrith-in-sydney-s-west-tops-48-degrees-20200104-p53osu.html

  7. sprocket:

    Statement from the Australian Defence Association

    1) Party-political advertising milking ADF support to civil agencies fighting bushfires is a clear breach of the (reciprocal) non-partisanship convention applying to both the ADF & Ministers/MPs. 2) Also cliche-ridden. 3) Its “defence force”, not “Defence Force”. #auspol #ausdef

    The Australian Defence Association twitter stream is here:
    https://twitter.com/austdef/status/1213398922720239616
    It continues with:
    https://twitter.com/IanPitman2/status/1213401249732673537

    Even the background photo is a fraud, there is no DPCU or AMCU shirt or ANF badge that looks like that.

    Good one – Scotty from Marketing

    and then:
    https://twitter.com/austdef/status/1213403938172456961

    Australia Defence Association
    ‏ @austdef
    Replying to @IanPitman2

    Certainly looks that way

    and eventually:
    https://twitter.com/andrewfelix/status/1213424091362758658

    Andrew Rose
    ‏ @andrewfelix

    #ScottyfromMarketing photoshopped a Polish uniform for his ad…

    Publishing a fake image of the ADF? – good one Scotty from Marketing

  8. Morrison responding to about 7 thousands insults on twitter about the ad:

    Scott Morrison
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    Replying to
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    It is a legal requirement in Australia to include an authorisation on all video messages used on social media by Australian MPs. The video message simply communicates the Government’s policy decisions and the actions the Government is undertaking to the public.
    Scott Morrison
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    The same practice is rightly employed by the Leader of the Opposition and the Labor Party. This is required and standard practice in Australia.

  9. BB

    Greg Jennett trying hard for a government gig apres-ABC, a la his predecessor Mark Simkin. You can almost see his eyes moving left to right as he reads the PMO Talking Points spin sheet live to air.

    ___________________________________

    Much as it pains me to defend Jennett, even he finished his report with a slap at Morrison’s Liberal Party ad with a comment about how even now politics is played (can’t remember the exact words, but for once they were not anodyne).

  10. That fire that jumped kangaroo river can burn unstopped past the Gong onto Sydney via the Dharawal National Park. Shits going to get real, it just may burn up to the edge of cronulla

  11. Scotty from Marketing needs to put out another ad to control the damage from the first ad.
    If all you’ve got is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

  12. “Late Riser says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 11:38 pm
    It is hard to keep a balance among the flood of events. Thoughts jump about. I would love to see electorate boundaries showing the names of the sitting MP superimposed on the fire maps.”

    I’ll bet someone in the government has that job right now. They’ll be preparing “thoughts and prayers” messages for each of their MPs to send to constituents, enclosing a copy of Morrison’s PR thing today of course.

  13. TPOF @ #7064 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 10:47 pm

    BB

    Greg Jennett trying hard for a government gig apres-ABC, a la his predecessor Mark Simkin. You can almost see his eyes moving left to right as he reads the PMO Talking Points spin sheet live to air.

    ___________________________________

    Much as it pains me to defend Jennett, even he finished his report with a slap at Morrison’s Liberal Party ad with a comment about how even now politics is played (can’t remember the exact words, but for once they were not anodyne).

    If it is the same one I heard, I vaguely “minutes after the government announcement” … “releases a partisan political ad”, and he couldn’t quite hide the disgust in his voice.

  14. I have a relative who is in a relationship with a NZ property developer. Unlikable chap. But sometimes interesting. One of his schemes after the Christchurch earthquake was to buy properties cheaply in affected areas. People were glad to sell cheaply and anxious to get out. He then applied for and received the government compensation and flipped the property. By his telling he was clearing 200K per property. The reason I mention this is as a warning for what might happen after our fires.

  15. nath:

    It is a legal requirement in Australia to include an authorisation on all video messages used on social media by Australian MPs. The video message simply communicates the Government’s policy decisions and the actions the Government is undertaking to the public.
    Scott Morrison
    @ScottMorrisonMP

    Did his legal team not advise him that using stock images of Polish soldiers that have been photoshopped with Australian flags (to suggest they are ADF personnel) was perhaps something a Prime Minster should not be doing.

    Send Scotty from Marketing a copy of “Prime Ministering for Dummies” as a late Christmas Present – David Cameron’s copy is no doubt well worn but no longer needed.

  16. I don’t recall previous government announcements having the party’s logo and a link to give party donations.

    Scott MorrisonVerified account@ScottMorrisonMP
    39m39 minutes ago
    It is a legal requirement in Australia to include an authorisation on all video messages used on social media by Australian MPs. The video message simply communicates the Government’s policy decisions and the actions the Government is undertaking to the public.

    Scott MorrisonVerified account@ScottMorrisonMP
    39m39 minutes ago
    The same practice is rightly employed by the Leader of the Opposition and the Labor Party. This is required and standard practice in Australia.

  17. This in the Oz – is it becoming an embarrassment to the LNP?

    EXCLUSIVE
    Reef body ‘spending millions on costs’
    The Great Barrier Reef Foundation is spending millions each year administrating a $500m government grant.
    By GRAHAM LLOYD

  18. C@tmomma @ #7052 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:27 pm

    ItzaDream,
    Is it a nightmare yet? Is your house down south threatened?

    It’s surreal C@t. The RFS site is showing the fire has gone through us, but we still have power, confirmed, and I think I’ve got some remote controlled watering going. We wont sleep much. We’re mentally prepared for this. It’s going back that’s going to be hard, whenever that is, and whatever is there. But we’re not alone, and we’re safe. There’s thousands worse off than us. Radio 702 is giving good updates, and we’re in wait and accept mode.

  19. Fessy
    It shows they are in campaign mode instead of government mode, it is perfectly normal for government ads to say which agency is providing the message but political party authorization is only used during an election campaign.

  20. You know what I find really helps in getting to sleep after a big day of badly managing a massive fire.

    Getting sucked into defending myself on twitter at 1130 at night.

    We’ve got our very own mini Trump with smoko, I wonder what time smoko gets up, i wonder if he’s exercising yet. He was looking a bit soft in photo’s today.
    He’s going to need his strength to battle the party room when parliament sits in February.

  21. It’s been a terrible time for many people in Australia but I cannot help thinking that this is just a fraction of what millions of Syrians have endured for years.

  22. Itza and other PBers facing bushfire tonight, youse have my best wishes and hopes that you get through. I cannot imagine what it must feel like to be experiencing.

  23. The thing about the Morrison ad is that the LNP seems to make no distinction between what is an official government announcement and what is party political.

    If the announcement today is official government policy, it should be say “authorised by the Australian Government”.

    My guess is that this is not official government policy at all but a series of political promises that one day will be quietly abandoned. For example, does the promise to pay volunteer fire fighters extend over the next several years or will it cease to have effect when the last of the current fires is extinguished?

  24. Confessions:

    OMG surely not!

    Andrew Rose@andrewfelix
    2h2 hours ago
    #ScottyfromMarketing photoshopped a Polish uniform for his ad…

    It seems pretty clear he did that – https://twitter.com/andrewfelix/status/1213424091362758658 – the reason apparently is that ADF personnel (in ADF uniforms) are not allowed to be used in political ads

    But #ScottyfromMarketing is thinking outside the square: real ADF personnel (in ADF uniforms) can’t be used, so let’s use a fake image where a Polish solder has been photoshopped to look like he’s from the ADF (by replacing the flag).

    The problem was that ADF associated people (such as the Australian Defence Association) know what the uniforms look like, not just the flags…

  25. Very smoky again in Canberra with the change of wind tonight. A little of the smoke seeped into our house and I’m wondering how it compares with second hand tobacco smoke healthwise. I’ve never smoked but was subjected to a a lot of second hand smoke in earlier years.

  26. Righto. I think the ad is the sign for the ALP to put the boot into Morrison.

    I don’t think anyone seems to have thought the ad was a good idea.

  27. The scariest bit is that is just a foretaste.

    This is occurring at 1 degree, 2 degrees is locked in and whatever higher warming our political and economic elites want.

    In Australia there can be no deviation from these current failing policies.

  28. I keep hearing people say that there has been bigger fires and that is true but I cannot think of a time when there has been out of control brazes from Sydney right down the south coast and across the Gippsland high country and we are only now entering what has traditionally been the start of the big fire season in Victoria.

  29. E. G. Theodore @ #7171 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 5:14 pm

    a r:

    Only if page size is the only factor (it will certainly be a factor, since only the current page will be rendered into HTML). But if “it’s look threads wot done it”, then it’s not the only factor.

    Not sure if it’s the only factor, but it appears to be the dominant one. Easy enough to compare for yourself:

    100 Comments
    50 Comments
    20 Comments
    5 Comments

    When I try those, I get load times (as reported by the ‘Page load time’ Chrome extension) of:

    100 Comments – 94 seconds
    50 Comments – 48 seconds
    20 Comments – 16 seconds
    5 Comments – 3 seconds

    …another thing that’s telling is that the DB does not appear to be caching the results of any of these queries. No matter how many times I try to visit the ‘100 Comments’ link in a row, it still always takes about 90 seconds to load.

    I tend to blame WordPress. Though it could also be that there’s something amiss with the database cache configuration.

  30. “That fire that jumped kangaroo river can burn unstopped past the Gong onto Sydney via the Dharawal National Park. Shits going to get real, it just may burn up to the edge of cronulla”

    I’ve been puzzling over this for a week. There’s a dozen opportunities for backburning before it gets that far though you have to admit these fires have a nasty habit of ignoring containment.

    Bte the Green Wattle Creek fire nearly crossed the Hume.

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