Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

  1. May I make a prediction?

    mundo will rock up tomorrow and, try to, tell us all what a masterstroke the Liberal Party ad about Morrison’s approach to the bushfires is.

  2. I wonder if BK is here?

    Brittany Evins
    @BrittanyEvins

    5h
    Fire fighters at the Cudlee Creek station in the Adelaide Hills have broken down while talking to Opposition leader Anthony Albanese
    @abcnews

  3. Pegasus, my apologies for not responding sooner. Thanks for the link to the Cobargo election results and re the under 5s not being evacuated. Climbing rope ladders onto ships seems a reasonable concern.
    Cheers

  4. Tony Burke
    @Tony_Burke

    29m
    This is beyond belief. Everything is political with this character. He goes missing when the nation needs a leader. Then Australia鈥檚 PM makes an ad. Lives lost, homes destroyed, wildlife sent to oblivion and his priority is to make a partisan Liberal Party ad. It鈥檚 disgusting.

  5. Aqualung
    rope ladders ? I saw footage of people being evacuated last night. A walk down the jetty and on the ship walking up a gently sloped ramp at the front of the transfer boat on to the evacuation ship.

  6. This is apparently a photo of Home Affairs Minister, Peter Dutton, on holidays on the Gold Coast yesterday (like he gives a fig about national emergency management):

  7. My understanding is that David Littleproud is the relevant minister, even though emergency response sits within the Home Affairs department. Peter Dutton doesnt need to appear.

  8. C@t:

    If Dutton were around he’d just try and stop the boats, and I don’t think those being evacuated from Mallacoota would appreciate that!

  9. Verry interesting:
    #auspol Wickr chat saying Morrison has lost his power base, the video was the last straw.Liberals will back him to the media but inside he’s dead man walking.

  10. Tell me to stop if you think I’m posting too much. I’m just hot and have nothing else to do but try and keep people informed. 馃檪

  11. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 9:32 pm

    Verry interesting:
    #auspol Wickr chat saying Morrison has lost his power base, the video was the last straw.Liberals will back him to the media but inside he鈥檚 dead man walking.
    _______________
    He only ever had a handful of followers. The moderates only backed him to stop Dutton getting it.

  12. “The two substations that synchronize Victorian and NSW grids.”

    Well, there is an “oh poo” moment for the regulator then. Substations will take longer to repair than a lines down issue ??

    Also seen reports that the interconnections between states are down?? Be technically interesting to see how S.A. holds up??

  13. Thanks, BK. They look like good people.
    ____
    C@t
    Cudlee are a great bunch of people. I went there with the BBQ trailer last year for a relatively big shout and it was a ball.

  14. Australia Defence Association
    @austdef

    2h
    “Absolutely obscene” somewhat of an over-reaction but the speed of publication & purpose of this ad, & the apparent ignoring of the resultant risk of unnecessarily dragging the ADF into party-political controversy, needs to be explained. Not a good look at best. #auspol #ausdef
    Quote Tweet

    Barrie Cassidy
    @barriecassidy
    路 4h
    That is absolutely obscene. They are advertising their responses to the fires – promoting themselves – at the height of the crisis. Their reputation is paramount apparently. https://twitter.com/annabelcrabb/status/1213336068092641280

  15. Two points:

    1. I have never in my life seen something as bizarre from a Prime Minister or Government as the ad released today. Not hyperbole. I’ve seen more dishonest and manipulative ads by far, but nothing that is so out of synch of the thinking of the vast majority of Australians (whatever their political or apolitical instincts).

    2. The fires that have hit the NSW South Coast and the East Gippsland have caught the cream and the dregs of the the Canberra Press Gallery and a great swathe of journalists (mainstream and other) from Sydney and Melbourne taking their annual breaks. In terms of being on the spot, nobody has been closer. Whatever the media manipulators put out, they will have to deal with a huge number of reporters whose lived (and life-threatening) experiences will cause them to find the bullshit indigestible. This is especially so with the ABC reporters from Sydney, Melbourne and, above all, Canberra.

    The consequences for accepting the drip, no matter how much their editors (some of who would have also seen their holidays and holiday homes go up in smoke) want to toe the company line. I can’t guess how much impact this will have, but it will not be small in terms of how things are reported in Australia going forward.

  16. In the past few days I have sent sms and emails to a few Liberal Party people that I know and while some of them are on holiday but the silence is deafening. These people are usually very chatty on any headline and were always happy to tell me what they thought of Abbott and Turnbull but now its crickets.

  17. Media
    Likes
    Sharri Markson鈥檚 Tweets
    Sharri Markson
    @SharriMarkson

    43s
    My story today is accurate. These are the facts:
    1. The PM offered NSW naval assets – he confirmed this at his presser.
    2. Berejiklian did not accept it partly bc of RFS advice that the safest path to evacuate was by road.

    PM today overruled NSW to send in the naval ship anyway.
    Quote Tweet

    Sharri Markson
    @SharriMarkson
    路 8h
    PM鈥檚 move now to send ADF resources to help with the fires is in response to his frustration that NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian was not accepting help and was painting a rosier picture of the situation on the ground, as outlined in my story today http://dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/nsw-b鈥 https://twitter.com/sharrimarkson/

  18. Poroti, the link to the article in the age that Pegasus posted said under 5s and elderly people were to be airlifted due to concerns about their ability to climb rope ladders onto the ships.
    Seems reasonable although now that you mention it I did see footage of people getting on via some sort of ramp.

  19. I notice Greg the Lyin鈥 Hunt was out today, giving his full support to Morrison.

    The 鈥淒ream Team鈥 of Dutton/Hunt would surely have the numbers now

  20. Steve777

    The reports from The Age today suggested the fires will still be burning for 8 weeks.

    Surely not even the Liberals would be fools enough to start leadershit in February if that’s the case.

  21. I鈥檓 not sure what to make of the well cited Age piece on who was, was not allowed onto the Choules

    Dr Angela Rintoul certainly got on..

    Thank you to the Army and Navy for evacuating us safely. Also to the CFA, Police & Red Cross for saving our lives!!! We have disembarked and are enroute to Melbourne by bus now. So sorry to read just now that many other families who wanted to leave are still in #Mallacoota

  22. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    8m8 minutes ago
    I found both 鈥渓ittle Jonny Howard鈥 and 鈥淛uliar鈥 rude and unfair nicknames given to former PMs on both sides….Scotty from marketing, however, is funny AND after today鈥檚 Liberal Party advert (he even personally authorised it!) more true than ever… #auspol

  23. sprocket:

    I heard they were evacuating vulnerable people first, and this included babies and toddlers/children who had medical conditions.

  24. It ain鈥檛 half hot, mum…

    Penrith reaches highest temperature ever recorded for Sydney basin
    Penrith reached the highest temperature ever recorded for the Sydney basin on Saturday, with the mercury peaking at 48.9 degrees at 3.02pm.

    The previous record for Sydney was 47.8 degrees, set in Richmond in 1939.

    “It’s the hottest known temperature for the Sydney basin for any month,” duty forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology Jake Phillips said.

    Canberra also achieved a temperature record on Saturday, with a maximum of 44 degrees at the airport.

    The previous record for that site was from 1968.

    Mr Phillips said the new records would stand for at least the rest of the week, with a cool change to bring temperatures down to 25 degrees in Sydney and 29 degrees in the city’s west on Sunday.

  25. C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 9:33 pm
    Tell me to stop if you think I鈥檓 posting too much. I鈥檓 just hot and have nothing else to do but try and keep people informed.

    STOP

  26. Reason for delay in Mallacoota

    Darren Chester MP
    @DarrenChesterMP

    6h
    Disappointed to report the Spartan aircraft unable to land at Mallacoota due to poor visibility and couldn鈥檛 bring anyone out, or deliver supplies at present. Hopefully conditions will improve and all aircraft based at East Sale RAAF Base will be back in action. #lovegippsland

  27. That Markson article in the Daily Terrorgraph referred to up-thread?

    “No Longer Available”. 馃檪 Could it be dawning on the RWNJobbies that Smoko is a political crispy critter??

  28. If this guy can’t find a way to spin it for you, you’re cooked:

    Piers Morgan
    @piersmorgan
    Wow. A self-promotional commercial with cheesy elevator music? This is one of the most tone-deaf things I鈥檝e ever seen a country鈥檚 leader put out during a crisis. Shameless & shameful.

  29. Aqualung @ #6981 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 9:44 pm

    Poroti, the link to the article in the age that Pegasus posted said under 5s and elderly people were to be airlifted due to concerns about their ability to climb rope ladders onto the ships.
    Seems reasonable although now that you mention it I did see footage of people getting on via some sort of ramp.

    That made a kind of sense … until it turned out that these people could not be airlifted out because it was too dangerous for the aircraft.

    So, what we ended up with was able-bodied people evacuated by sea – and kids under 5 and the elderly or infirm left on the beach.

    How good is that?

  30. nath

    Sailors are damn cute these days!

    So can we expect to hear the wharves echoing once more to the call of the nath —-“Hello sailor” ? 馃槅

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