Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

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  2. This is why we are all confused as to who has the emergency portfolio.

    Ingrid M
    @iMusing
    here it is. A brassy announcement riddled with time warped claims, like the Commonwealth is going to establish a national emergency management agency, a thing that already exists in Dutton’s ministry of Home Affairs.

  3. “An entire week where the National Security Committee could have been meeting before Christmas went by while Scotty From Marketing was on retreat in Hawaii.”

    The “unfortunate” thing for the Libs is that anything they do now is, quite rightly, seen through the lens of what they didn’t do up till now…..when they had ALREADY been told that it needed doing and had the opportunity to do it.

    They could have put themselves in a great political position now if they had simply listened, and then stolen the ALP policy. If they had, no one would care or even acknowledge that it was an ALP initiative.

    Massive fail by Smoko then, now compounded by further fwarkups, and the fact that millions of Australians are being DIRECTLY impacted by heat, smoke, fire and fear. Hopefully the rains will come sooner rather than later. But this is not a “passing” crisis that people will forget about come the next election.

    It looks to me like 2019 was actually not the “Climate Change election”……… That’s the next one.

  6. lizzie @ #6581 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:51 pm

    Rosie Williams
    @Info_Aus
    ·
    1h
    So this is crazy. I’ve just been told that the ABS intends to add a question to the census to require us to disclose every health condition we’ve been diagnosed with. https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/c2019-41183

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Possible answers.
    Well, my relative’s a nurse and she’s sure I’ve got arthritis but one doctor says it’s being overweight and another thinks it’s the onset of parkinson’s. What shall I write? Might as well put all three.

    This is “planning” bullshit lizzie, most likely related to the failed big data harvesting scams such as MyHealthRecord. What they are after is some measure of chronic health conditions so that they can justify local budget projections, not accurate diagnoses. The level of detail and granularity of passive survey systems (ie self-reported, not registered notifications or discharge coding) is predicted just as well by age and sex (and, curiously, educational level achieved).

  7. One thing that did stand out for me re the Morrison presser is the incremental ( early stages yet ) move by Morrison to put blame on the states.

    I would expect this is directed at NSW first but other states dragged in. Perhaps Morrison is being found guilty by association with NSW out in the real world and or has the shits with them after they ever so gently put his arse in a sling over funding for aircraft this morning.

    Anyway, I wonder how long NSW and others take to respond ? Perhaps some details of requests by the states denied by the Morrison government will filter out.

  8. imacca @ #6422 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:36 pm

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-rejected-major-air-tanker-expansion-20200103-p53onl.html

    “Labor went to the last federal election promising an $80 million policy to create a national firefighting fleet to make up for a long-term fall in federal assistance. Then Labor leader Bill Shorten said the money would go towards at least six very large air-tankers as well as helicopters.

    Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese wrote to Mr Morrison in November asking him to call a meeting of the Council of Australian Governments to discuss national disaster responses including aerial firefighting.

    “I proposed that COAG expand the capacity of Australia’s National Aerial Firefighting Centre and increase its funding,” Mr Albanese said. “Australia faces a national bushfire emergency and it requires a national response.””

    So, historical fact is that the ALP had a good policy going into the last election, that if had been enacted would maybe have made a difference to the situation we have right now.

    Smoko playing catch up too fwarking late. 🙁

    I think mundo must be a slow learner, he obviously has failed to catch up with Albanese’s very much advanced calls upon the Morrison government to DO SOMETHING! (With detailed instructions).

  9. Our wind direction has veered a bit from a steady NW to WNW which basically starts blowing the fires towards the ACT. Top gust speeds have fallen a bit. We have some cloud about and the temp has dropped a couple of degrees.

  11. BW,

    That is my feeling too.

    We’ve been there quite a few times trying to see ground parrot but always dip. Often used to see southern emu wrens – but no way they would have survived if the fire has gone right through the heath.

    fwiw we’ve heard that Peter and Margaret who run Adobe Mudbrick Flats in Karbeethong are ok.

  12. One thing that did stand out for me re the Morrison presser is the incremental ( early stages yet ) move by Morrison to put blame on the states.

    Well, doyley, Dan Andrews is a step ahead of Morrison again. He says that everything he has asked for from the commonwealth he has got. So, that’s Victoria out of the Morrison calculations. 😀

  13. rhwombat:

    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 2:51 pm

    I’d put Morrison at the top of my list, as he’s sneaky, nasty, mean, a fraud; whereas, Elliot’s more a dumbarse. Who else would say he’d allow his own children to be strip-searched, impersonate a cop in a minor traffic incident, holiday in Europe at the very height of the bush fire crisis, when he’s the
    Minister for Police and Emergency Services, and unlike Morrison, didn’t attempt to cover it up.

  14. lizzie @ #6545 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:51 am

    Rosie Williams
    @Info_Aus
    ·
    1h
    So this is crazy. I’ve just been told that the ABS intends to add a question to the census to require us to disclose every health condition we’ve been diagnosed with. https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/c2019-41183

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Possible answers.
    Well, my relative’s a nurse and she’s sure I’ve got arthritis but one doctor says it’s being overweight and another thinks it’s the onset of parkinson’s. What shall I write? Might as well put all three.

    That links to a discussion paper which is inviting comment for a further week. It doesn’t say this is what is going to actually happen, nor does this state categorically that is a question in the 2021 Census.

  16. @rhinds tweets

    And so it begins. Those who find the fires ideologically inconvenient ridiculing people who have lost homes and livelihoods. It would be infuriating if it wasn’t so bloody predictable. https://twitter.com/zanetticartoons/status/1213214735560146944

    Insider says Cobargo is a marijuana blackmarket. Growers don’t pay tax nor contribute to society. Media is ignoring the bigger story while focusing on ferals abusing the PM who went to their town to see what they need.

    #Cobargo https://twitter.com/NerylMcphee/status/1213174390545735681

  17. Scrott’s list

    1) Announce things already announced
    2) Announce things that were already going to happen
    3) Announce things already happening
    4) Promise anything as long as it does not take money from ‘Precious’ , the surplus white whale.
    5-20) FIG

  18. rhwombat

    What a mess! And repeating myself, where’s the little Hunt? Morrison assures us that Health Min is in control of all health issues, when asked about effects of smoke.

  20. When Scooty Scummy Scott from Marketing said: ““These arms have given a lot of hugs over the last few months.”” I don’t it was people he was talking about, more like great big self hugs for being so great and terrific because dog loves him more than anything else in the whole universe.

  21. ‘bakunin says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 3:03 pm

    BW,

    That is my feeling too.

    We’ve been there quite a few times trying to see ground parrot but always dip. Often used to see southern emu wrens – but no way they would have survived if the fire has gone right through the heath.

    fwiw we’ve heard that Peter and Margaret who run Adobe Mudbrick Flats in Karbeethong are ok.’

    Glad to hear that. The fires are so extensive that many isolated fragments have been obliterated. It is difficult to see that natural recruitment of stuff like emu wrens is going to happen. Just another dynamic of the Anthropocene Extinction Event.

  24. Whichever Bludger predicted that the reactionaries would immediately get to work to vilify anyone who dared criticize Scutty from Marketing was right on the money.

  26. Sure it was Lizzie
    😉

    lizzie says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 2:56 pm

    @tegangeorge
    · 20m
    Thank you for all your tweets. @nswpolice media has told us it was a misunderstanding … and we are allowed back inside the grounds at Bega

  29. Poroti
    He does that because most people dont watch his PCs on a regular basis.So everything always sounds new.He is just a piss taker of these so called new announcements because he knows most punters are mugs and vote Liberal when it comes to voting time.

  31. lizzie @ #6608 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 3:06 pm

    rhwombat

    What a mess! And repeating myself, where’s the little Hunt? Morrison assures us that Health Min is in control of all health issues, when asked about effects of smoke.

    The effects of the smoke will show up very clearly in the local mortality stats, but not until the data can be collated and compared -which takes ~ 18 months. Just in time for the next elections in NSW.

  32. Throughout his career Mr Hunt has been ever eager to be in the forefront when the news is good and totally out of sight when the news is bad.

    Hunt has yet to make a national statement on the massive health consequences of the fires and smoke.
    Hunt has been totally 100% absent.

  33. Senator Murray Watt
    @MurrayWatt

    Morrison announces new water bombers:
    * 4 years after asked by National coordinating body,
    * >18 mths after that body presented business case,
    * 9 mths after Labor made election commitment for more planes,
    * 6 weeks after
    @AlboMP
    asked.
    All that time, Morrison has done nothing.

    Uh huh.

    But mundo reckons Scooter is wiping the floor with Labor and Albanese. 🙄

  37. The NSW RFS says a fire-generated thunderstorm has formed over the Currowan fire on the northern edge of the fire near Nowra. “This is a very dangerous situation. Monitor the conditions around you and take appropriate action,” the alert says.

    Across the border in Mallacoota it looks like midnight in the middle of the afternoon. I can’t actually watch this short clip without feeling deeply anxious. This is how it looked in Canberra in 2003.

    Mallacoota in darkness again at 2.25 in the afternoon.

  38. Greg the Lying Hunt has been vewy busy guys! Figuring out how to get rid of the ACATS and which Liberal mate to funnel the job to takes a lot of time!

  39. “Boerwar says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 3:05 pm
    Closest fires now within 10 km of the ACT border.”

    Where’s that Boerwar? Nothing on the RFS map.

  40. Duncan Bowie

    @ManMadeMoon tweets

    I understanding this is deeply depressing, even traumatising for some, but this is our world today… and with no change of course, it could become much more of our world. https://twitter.com/goodoldcatchy/status/1212755943102058501

    GoodOldCatchy

    Let’s talk about what’s happening in Australia, which is suffering its worst bushfire season in recorded history.

    This almost unimaginable catastrophe has killed half a billion animals and released over 250 million tonnes of CO2 so far.

    #AustraliaBurning
    https://twitter.com/somers3927/status/1212316951906701312/video/1

  41. Duncan Bowie

    @ManMadeMoon tweets

    I understanding this is deeply depressing, even traumatising for some, but this is our world today… and with no change of course, it could become much more of our world. https://twitter.com/goodoldcatchy/status/1212755943102058501

    GoodOldCatchy

    Let’s talk about what’s happening in Australia, which is suffering its worst bushfire season in recorded history.

    This almost unimaginable catastrophe has killed half a billion animals and released over 250 million tonnes of CO2 so far.

    #AustraliaBurning
    https://twitter.com/somers3927/status/1212316951906701312/video/1

  42. Morrison announces new water bombers:
    * 4 years after asked by National coordinating body,
    * >18 mths after that body presented business case,
    * 9 mths after Labor made election commitment for more planes,
    * 6 weeks after
    @AlboMP
    asked.

    And they won’t arrive for another 7 – 14 days.

  45. 3pm in Nowa Nowa, 20 min north of Lakes Entrance. Incredibly dark due to smoke from the nearby Buchan Valley blaze. Firefighters leaving after gathering at the local oval. Town almost deserted.

  46. Just did another water top up run for the birds. Yes, they are getting stuck into the water.
    One of my homemade water receptacles had a number of bees in it. They scrambled to safety as I poured the water in.
    Didn’t occur to me that insect need water too.

  47. M
    Hildebrand is doing a somewhat histrionic variation of same old same old. It is the sort of tripe that Rexie from Greens Marketing comes up with every day of the week.

  50. This is sickening! MINDEF is thanking Morrison for “his incredible leadership”

    _____________________________________

    Fair call. There’s been a huge amount of disbelief about it everywhere – including here.

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