Essential Research: that was the year that was

One last hurrah for 2019 from Essential Research finds an improvement in Anthony Albanese’s ratings, but little change for Scott Morrison.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll is out and, perhaps unsurprisingly for what will surely be its last survey for the year, it does not break its post-election habit of not publishing numbers on voting intention. What it does have is the monthly leadership ratings, which record little change for Scott Morrison (approval steady at 45%, disappoval up two to 43%) and favourable movement for Anthony Albanese (up two on approval to 39%, down six on disapproval to 28%). There is no preferred prime minister rating, but we do get evaluations on how the leaders have performed since the election: 11% say Scott Morrison has exceeded expectations, 41% that he has met them and 47% that he has fallen short of them, with Albanese’s respective ratings being 8%, 48% and 44%.

Also:

• The regular end-of-year question on for whom this has and hasn’t been a good year suggests people leaned positive about their own circumstances, albeit less so than last year; that it was a much better year for the government, which is hard to argue with on a purely political level; that it was a bad yet still much better year for “Australian politics in general”, the improvement presumably relating to the lack of a prime ministerial leadership coup; and that things were unambiguously positive only for large companies and the Australian cricket team.

• After two years of legalised same-sex marriage, 47% say it has had a positive impact, 15% negative and 38% neither.

• There remains negative sentiment towards unions, whom 49% say have too much power compared with 37% who disagreed. Fully 68% thought union officials should be disqualified merely for breaching administrative laws, with only 18% in disagreement, while 51% thought unions should be disqualified for taking unprotected industrial election, with 32% disagreeing. However, 62% agreed the government was “more concerned about the actions of union officials than the CEO’s of banks and other corporations”.

• Thirty-five per cent thought Scott Morrison should have stood Angus Taylor down from cabinet with 17% supporting his position, while 48% conceded they had not been following the issue.

• There was overwhelming support for the establishment of a federal ICAC, at 75% with only 8% opposed.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1035 respondents drawn from an online panel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,940 comments on “Essential Research: that was the year that was”

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  1. My campaign advice for Labor.

    Do an Abbott. Wreck wreck wreck. Then run a three word slogan for policies. When asked about policies hide in a fridge.

    The media can’t complain all successful standards they have accepted for winning elections.

    Edit: sorry I forgot to add have political leaders complain about ABC right wing bias.

  3. Labor doesn’t have a media organisation that will ignore any lies they might try on their or actively boost them, that will attack and smear their enemies as required.

  5. Davidwh

    Labor don’t have anyone who could lie with a straight face like Abbott could.

    i’m sure they could find someone in NSW Labor 🙂 But seriously though their real problem is that journalists would suddenly start doing their job and dismantle the bullshit. Something they mysteriously forgot to do when Abbott was flooding the place with bullshit.

  8. guytaur & incidentally PhoenixRED:

    [‘I don’t think the Billionaire will buy the election. I do think his entry will take voters away from Biden and Buttigieg.’]

    I’ve been paying a good deal of attention to Bloomberg of late and what impresses me about him is that he’s calm, his absence of extreme rhetoric, though lacking the charisma of, say, an FDR, a JFK. I reckon he’s precisely the type that America’s needs in the wake of Trump – to settle down an extremely polarised, very angry electorate. Sanders and Warren, though I agree in part with their politics, are unelectable, as was the Bolshie Corbyn. I look forward to March’s “Super Tuesday”, the advantage of which is Bloomberg’s immense wealth. Having said that, the Democrat’s kingpins will kill his nomination – another four years of Trump is likely if they do so.

  9. “After all Ed Milliband was destroyed for the way he ate a sandwich to use another UK example.”

    ***

    He was always a bit tainted by how he got the job – running against and defeating his own brother. Apparently it destroyed their once close relationship. Pretty sad really.

  10. Player One @ #1457 Friday, December 13th, 2019 – 8:35 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1436 Friday, December 13th, 2019 – 6:39 pm

    Politics is about getting things done.

    You might like to reflect on that from your haughty redoubte.

    And you might like to reflect on how ineffectual Labor has been at “getting things done” 🙁

    Labor does the best they can with the supporters they have.

    People like you that think being politically informed or have a particular fetish is everything you need to do are as useful as an ashtray on a motor bike.

    Cheers.

  11. All this doom and gloom about progressive politics. Stop obsessing about the US and UK and look to our Canadian cousins who have in large part resisted the swerve to the right.

    Justin Trudeau may have lost his majority, but with the assistance of the “socialist” New Democrats he will serve out his full four-year term He also saw off Tory leader Andrew Scheer who is a Scott Morrison clone without FauxMo’s gift of the gab.

    And guess what, the straw that broke the camel’s back for Scheer’s Party and brought about his resignation was the revelation that the Conservatives paid for the education of his children in private schools.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-resigns-1.5393803

    Now get this: are you sitting down? Nearly all Canadian children attend public schools. About 6 per cent of 15-year-old Canadian schoolchildren attend private schools. Yes, that’s right. just six per cent.

    And guess what, Trudeau talked about taxing and spending to pay for Canada’s enlightened social measures.

    Scheer picked up Morrison’s small-government mantra that Canadians |”should keep more of what they earn.” And he was politely rejected.

    And of course, Canada has real medicare-for-all. No bills for doctors, hospital treatment and most medical tests, no gaps, no co-payments. Universal, single-payer health care and no private health insurance industry for medical or hospital treatment, including specialists.

  12. My hope, after the UK Election disaster, is that France, Germany, or anyone really, will accept my request for an EU passport after Boris forcibly drags Eire out of the EU.

  15. Greensborough Growler @ #1460 Friday, December 13th, 2019 – 8:47 pm

    Labor does the best they can with the supporters they have.

    You believe Labor are on track to win the next election. I believe Labor is on track to lose even more of the supporters they had left. I guess we will see who is right at the next election, but at the moment I’d have to point out that the polls seem to be supporting me, not you.

    People like you that think being politically informed or have a particular fetish is everything you need to do are as useful as an ashtray on a motor bike.

    People like me make a difference. We use political measures when they work, but other measures when politics fails. Unlike you, we don’t just sit around and say “well, there’s nothing more we can do until the next election”. People like you apparently can’t stand the fact that we take action outside your political bubble.

    But you had better get used to it.

  17. “You believe Labor are on track to win the next election. I believe Labor is on track to lose even more of the supporters they had left.”

    Lol! The opinion of a known obnoxious twit. Go ride your horsie mate.

  18. David Ritter

    Australia’s politicians face a crisis of legitimacy as fire and smoke chokes the country

    A government’s primary duty is to keep its citizens safe but the bushfire crisis shows past and present leaders have not lived up to that duty

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/13/australias-politicians-face-a-crisis-of-legitimacy-as-fire-and-smoke-chokes-the-country

    “Importantly it is not just the Morrison government, but the wider “regime” of government in Australia which basically assumes a status quo of continuing fossil fuel extraction and use. This political order includes not only politicians but all those industry peak bodies, thinktanks, advisers, media outlets and other institutions who enforce the status quo. It is symptomatic that while the country burned the leader of the opposition toured Queensland trying to reassure the coal industry that it has a future.
    :::
    The tragedy of smoke and fire could be a moment of national rebirth that leads to the creation of the decent climate policy necessary for our national survival and prosperity. The alternative for our political leaders is the path of continued deceit and the further collapse of their legitimacy in the face of the fires that now threaten us all.


  19. Douglas and Milko says:
    Friday, December 13, 2019 at 8:48 pm

    My hope, after the UK Election disaster, is that France, Germany, or anyone really, will accept my request for an EU passport after Boris forcibly drags Eire out of the EU.

    For the next round of entertainment the breakup of the UK is more likely.

  21. imacca @ #1467 Friday, December 13th, 2019 – 9:06 pm

    “You believe Labor are on track to win the next election. I believe Labor is on track to lose even more of the supporters they had left.”

    Lol! The opinion of a known obnoxious twit. Go ride your horsie mate.

    You do remember you just lost the unloseable election? And that the Coalition increased their lead in the most recent polling?

    And you seem to think it is me that has lost touch with reality?

  22. Fancy that, Labour’s been dealt the worst defeat since ’35 – having as its leader a man nearly as old as Methulsa – not that one’s ageist (?).

  25. beguiledagain @ #1461 Friday, December 13th, 2019 – 5:47 pm

    All this doom and gloom about progressive politics. Stop obsessing about the US and UK and look to our Canadian cousins who have in large part resisted the swerve to the right.

    Justin Trudeau may have lost his majority, but with the assistance of the “socialist” New Democrats he will serve out his full four-year term He also saw off Tory leader Andrew Scheer who is a Scott Morrison clone without FauxMo’s gift of the gab.

    And guess what, the straw that broke the camel’s back for Scheer’s Party and brought about his resignation was the revelation that the Conservatives paid for the education of his children in private schools.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-resigns-1.5393803

    Now get this: are you sitting down? Nearly all Canadian children attend public schools. About 6 per cent of 15-year-old Canadian schoolchildren attend private schools. Yes, that’s right. just six per cent.

    And guess what, Trudeau talked about taxing and spending to pay for Canada’s enlightened social measures.

    Scheer picked up Morrison’s small-government mantra that Canadians |”should keep more of what they earn.” And he was politely rejected.

    And of course, Canada has real medicare-for-all. No bills for doctors, hospital treatment and most medical tests, no gaps, no co-payments. Universal, single-payer health care and no private health insurance industry for medical or hospital treatment, including specialists.

    All well and good, however no Murdoch in Canada.

  26. “And you seem to think it is me that has lost touch with reality?”

    I don’t know that anyone has ever accused you of being in touch with it.

    “You really need to stop talking about yourself.”

    Seriously…… is it pink pony bedtime yet?? XX

  27. Danama Papers

    All well and good, however no Murdoch in Canada.

    Anglo countries WITH Rupert get…


    Two Anglo countries without Rupert get……..

    Can you spot the difference ? 😆

  28. Player One @ #1465 Friday, December 13th, 2019 – 9:00 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1460 Friday, December 13th, 2019 – 8:47 pm

    Labor does the best they can with the supporters they have.

    You believe Labor are on track to win the next election. I believe Labor is on track to lose even more of the supporters they had left. I guess we will see who is right at the next election, but at the moment I’d have to point out that the polls seem to be supporting me, not you.

    People like you that think being politically informed or have a particular fetish is everything you need to do are as useful as an ashtray on a motor bike.

    People like me make a difference. We use political measures when they work, but other measures when politics fails. Unlike you, we don’t just sit around and say “well, there’s nothing more we can do until the next election”. People like you apparently can’t stand the fact that we take action outside your political bubble.

    But you had better get used to it.

    Get used to what?

    More of the same rubbish from self indulgent tossers.

  29. Player One says:
    Friday, December 13, 2019 at 9:00 pm

    People like you apparently can’t stand the fact that we take action outside your political bubble.

    Nah. We like it. You have a bubble of your own. That’s bubblesome. Enjoy it.

  31. Player One says:
    Friday, December 13, 2019 at 9:00 pm

    You believe Labor are on track to win the next election.

    I’m certain that the Greens and the Blues and their various clones, apologists, shotguns, foghorns, scouts, lookouts, tributaries, lookalikes, ensigns, deputies, surrogates, substitutes, reserves, trainees, interns, apprentices, alternates, delegates, tokens, scarecrows, dummies, mannequins, puppets and decoys will be trying vary hard to keep Labor out of power.

    The best way for Labor to avoid this will be to put all its opponents last or next to last on its HTVs. Labor has to stand up.

  33. That’s plainly absurd. You can only put one party last and one party next to last.

    Besides any fair minded person is going to put Greens above Liberal/National – even if it makes no practical difference in 99 percent of cases.

  36. How to vote:
    Liberal last
    Liberal fellow travellers like One Nation next to last.
    In my Blue Ribbon “Liberal” seat, any left or centre candidate who has a chance of winning at #1. Since there is rarely such a candidate, I vote for my genuine preference – 1 Labor, 2 Green.
    I ignore the “how to vote” card other than to put those who preference Labor above Liberal before the others.

    But my lower house vote makes no difference.

  38. “How to vote:”

    ***

    1. Greens
    2. Any left wing minors or independents
    3. Labor
    4. Anyone else (random centrist single issue minors etc)
    Coalition and far right down the bottom.

    I’d obviously rather you voted 1 Greens but thanks for giving us your 2nd 🙂

  40. The Anti-Labor voices should be bunched together at the bottom of the HTV. The Gs are an anti-Labor kazoo. They can go at the bottom with the vuvuzelas and the bagpipes.

  41. RI:

    [‘The Gs are an anti-Labor kazoo. They can go at the bottom with the vuvuzelas and the bagpipes.’]

    Have you not sung this song hereinbefore? Please change the stylus, dear.

  42. Douglas and Milko – GG’s comments to you would have very little support from those of us who always value your contributions.

    He seems a little belligerent as we all get at times.

  44. Firefox…

    Labor
    Greens
    Any left leaning independent
    Lib/Nats
    Right wing ratbags

    In that order.
    Why do I 2nd preference Greens? Because even though I agree with a lot of their policy, at least in principle, I think the Greens have made some mistakes and need to play a more mature and sophisticated realpolitik. The thing that bugs me is so far, no Green seems to admit mistake or the need to up their game.

  45. “The thing that bugs me is so far, no Green seems to admit mistake or the need to up their game”

    They are remarkably incapable of self reflection, and that’s reflected in their static vote share.

  47. imaccasays:
    Friday, December 13, 2019 at 11:51 pm

    “The thing that bugs me is so far, no Green seems to admit mistake or the need to up their game”

    They are remarkably incapable of self reflection, and that’s reflected in their static vote share.

    When you’re perfect, why do you need to self reflect¿

  48. I don’t know if the two are linked.

    My take on the Greens’ static vote share is simply that it has everything to do with the demographics of the electorate. Some care about Greens issues. Most don’t. It probably won’t change much. The Greens are perceived (fairly or otherwise) as being about non bread and butter issues. And yes there’s a fair number of people who find themselves left of Labor on a number of issues (who aren’t necessarily screaming Trots either) and they almost exclusively preference Labor anyhow. Which is why it gives me the shits watching the interminable pointless shit-slinging on PollBludger.

    Labor’s real enemy is ignorance in the community and the tendency for people who are not well off to get sucked in by right wing minor parties and then have their preferences drift. The Greens are not a threat to Labor and vice versa. What is a problem is the sheer ignorance of the electorate on a host of basic ideas and presumptions. Why isn’t Labor defending its economic record, or pointing out that Labor is the party that has been almost entirely responsible for nation building, whereas the Libs have been consistent opposers/wreckers.

  50. The Greens vote increased by almost 100,000 in the House and almost 300,000 in the Senate. Laborites wishing it was static doesn’t make it so.

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