First up, note that you can find Adrian Beaumont’s latest British election post immediately below this one, and that The Guardian has preliminary details of what will presumably be the last Essential Research poll for the year, which I will blog about this evening when the full report is available (suffice to say for now that it still doesn’t feature voting intention numbers).
Now on to some further observations from the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, at which I took a preliminary look at the tail end of the previous post. Over the fold at the bottom of this post you can find a Sankey diagram showing how respondents’ vote choices in 2016 and 2019 compared, based on the slightly contingency of their recollections of what they did three years ago.
These suggest the Coalition actually lost a sizeable chunk of voters to Labor – 5.1% of the total, compared with only 1.6% going the other way. I might take a closer look at the survey responses for that 5.1% one day, but presumably they were the kind of Malcolm Turnbull-supporting voter who drove the swing to Labor in affluent inner urban areas. The key point is that the Coalition was able to make good this loss out of those who were in the “others” camp (i.e. everyone but the Coalition, Labor and the Greens) in 2016 – both directly, in that fully 30% of “others” from 2016 voted Coalition this time (or 4.1% of voters overall, compared with 1.6% who went from others to Labor), and indirectly, in that their preference share from what remained went from 50.8% to 56.3%.
Before that, some other general observations based on my reading of the ANU’s overview of its findings:
• The survey adds context for some intuitively obvious points: that the Coalition won because self-identified swinging voters rated them better to handle the economy, taxation and leadership, and rated those issues the most determinants of their vote choice. Labor’s strengths were, as ever, health and environment, which rated lower on the importance scale, and education, which hardly featured.
• Coalition and Labor voters weren’t vastly in their opinions on negative gearing and franking credits, with support and opposition being fairly evenly divided for both. However, there were enormously divided on their sense of the importance of global warming, which was rated extremely important by 64% of Labor voters but only 22% of Coalition voters.
• A drop in support for Labor among women caused the gender gap to moderate compared with 2016, although the unchanged 10% gap on the Liberal vote remains remarkable by recent historic standards. The new normal of Liberal doing better among men and Labor among women only really goes back to 2010 – back in the Keating era, it was Labor who had the women problem.
• Scott Morrison trounced Bill Shorten on popularity, their respective mean ratings on a zero-to-ten scale being 5.14 and 3.97.
• The number of respondents professing no party identity reached a new peak of 21%, maintaining a trend going back to 2010.
• The 2018 leadership coup was received as badly as the 2010 coup against Kevin Rudd. The 2013 and 2015 coups were less badly received, but both scored over 50% disapproval.
• Long-term trends show a steady erosion in trust in government, satisfaction with democracy and belief government is run for “all the people”, although the 2019 results weren’t particularly worse than 2016. Satisfaction with democracy is poor compared to the countries with which Australia is normally compared – though slightly higher than the United Kingdom, which is presumably one symptom among many of Brexit.
Based on weighted results from the AES survey, this shows how votes moved between the parties at the 2016 election (on the left) and the 2019 election (on the right). Roll your mouse pointer over it to see the percentage figures.
Asha
Good post, IMO.
RI
says:
I have been recruiting for Labor. I doubt I’ve repelled anyone.
______________________________
Priceless. 🙂
Player One:
People like RI are not representative of the Labor Party at large. You are making the classic mistake of assuming a few idiot narcissists on an internet forum are the official representives of the party they support, just as Labor supporters here often do with the more obnoxious Greens here. Talk to actual party insiders, and you will find people who take the climate change threat incredibly seriously, who accept and own the stuff-ups and own goals that led to the May loss, and generally just try to ignore the Greens.
Though, I do sorely hope the WA Labor party somehow finds a way to keep RI from ever speaking to another swing voter, because Jesus Christ….
The main political lesson from Poll2019 seems to be show me the money.
The Liberals did that. And won.
Labor showed health, education and the environment. And lost.
The Greens showed that coal was anathema and got thrashed.
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 8:51 am
…”As WB’s unambiguous visual representation shows, Labor is pivoting in the wrong policy direction on a number of fronts”…
It shows nothing of the sort.
You either have your mobile phone turned upside-down, or you are speaking out of your rear end.
It’s pointless blaming Morrison’s (or Turnbull’s, or Abbott’s) lack of action global Global Warming for the present bushfires or the drought.
The die was cast decades ago. And it will take centuries to fix.
More appropriately, the present ditherers can be blamed for not even taking steps to adapt to it. This reader comment at the Guardian today repeats what I’ve been banging on about. I could have written it myself.
Admitting that extra human and technical fire-fighting infrastructure is needed is the thin end of the wedge for the likes of our conservative governments. THAT is why they’re acting as if nothing abnormal is happening.
Turnbull last night lamented that “the Liberal Party” has a hard-core cadre of Climate Change deniers that hold sway over its every move to address the problem. This is the party in which he held the positions of Leader, Environment Minister and Prime Minister.
He conceded that the NEG would have passed the Parliament easily. So WHY didn’t he put the bill to the House?
There was no problem with numbers. No problem with community and cross-party support. So WHY?
Simply because it would have embarrassed him to see a few from his own side cross the floor, and then get heckled in The Australian and on Sky News (and, sadly, probably everywhere else too, because despite what they tell us, journos just love a juicy story on The Politics). Turnbull didn’t want to be crucified again on the Climate cross. Avoiding that was more more important than actually getting something done. The irony is that disaster for him happened anyway. What a gutless wonder.
The other thing Turnbull did not address was how thoroughly he was betrayed and fucked-over by a treacherous Morrison. He wasn’t going anywhere near that either.
The current mob are not responsible for the bushfires, or for the drought. They ARE responsible for doing something about them, though. But their need to hang onto power overrides even the holocaust that confronts them, and us. The question is: how long can they continue to deny what everyone else can see?
As they say, governments lose elections, oppositions don’t win them.
19000 km of fire front is a lot of front.
Asha Leu
I agree. One person gives an opinion and those with alternative views assume they stand for the whole Party.
Here is what is in the forefront of Morrison’s mind..
Scott Morrison will unveil another exposure draft on the religious discrimination bill in about half an hour #auspol
Asha Leu
says:
Though, I do sorely hope the WA Labor party somehow finds a way to keep RI from ever speaking to another swing voter, because Jesus Christ….
__________________________
The Liberals would pay dearly to have the crack duo Briefly and C@t campaign for Labor in marginal seats. Perhaps under the guise of a fake Labor organisation they could be induced to undertake a nation wide marginal seat effort. All expenses paid by the IPA.
Jason Wilson
Australia needs to challenge authority if we’re going to confront water, fire and climate crises
Governments increasingly make laws to curtail rights of protest, assembly, property and privacy and we need to suspect and resist that
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/09/australia-needs-to-challenge-authority-if-were-going-to-confront-water-fire-and-climate-crises
Politicise dissent; crush dissent. Maintain the status quo where the powerful few continue to exploit the many to line their own pockets.
RI @ #194 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 11:38 am
Well, I would point out that you also disagree with the UN, the IPCC, and 11,000 scientists … so the fact that you disagree with me comes as no surprise.
But don’t worry – I will continue to point out your errors and nonsense. I deem it to be a public service to genuine Labor supporters 🙂
“The conceits of the Greens…..’people like you….’…..like what, exactly? People that do not buy Green Herrings?”
***
People like you = right wingers who pretend to be of the left. Unrepresentative fake lefties. People like Clinton, Shorten, you, Boer, Cat, etc… People who drag parties like Labor to the right and push the left away. People like you are one of the main reasons that I haven’t given Labor my first preference since 07 and probably never will again, unless the ALP undergoes a Corbyn-like transformation into a real left wing party. Why would I? The Greens actually represent my beliefs. Labor does not.
William,
While the Panel 2019 dataset includes weightings, it is very heavily skewed to older voters.
The median year of birth appears to be 1956, so 50% of panelist were 60+ at the 2016 election.
Under 40’s are very significantly under represented compared to AES enrollment stats for the 2016 election:
18-19 -68.93%
20-24 -60.42%
25-29 -58.86%
30-34 -45.65%
35-39 -37.93%
40-44 -23.94%
45-49 -34.04%
50-54 -12.07%
55-59 36.32%
60-64 105.74%
65-69 111.86%
70+ 34.83%
Doesn’t this mean the weighted results will have a significantly higher sampling error for the under 50’s compared with the over 55’s?
BB
‘The current mob are not responsible for the bushfires, or for the drought.’
To an extent, they are.
I assume for the sake of this discussion that there is a greenhouse gas signal in record temperatures, record low rainfall, increasing winds, and the unseasonal distribution of all three.
Howard set the tone when he spent 11.5 years trashing national and, where he could do so, international action on climate change.
Every single Coalition government and opposition since has worked on the same principle.
200 billion cans of food are produced every year.
sprocket_ @ #210 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 8:47 am
And apparently he’s doing this in Sydney which has zero visibility due to the smoke haze. Talk about a ‘let them eat cake’ moment!
Asha Leu @ #203 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 11:43 am
Yes, I am aware that Briefly and the other Four Musketeers only represent the extreme edge of one extreme faction within the Labor party. But they are agitating for influence, and that has to be countered.
Perhaps I do give Briefly more attention than he deserves, but I do get a bit annoyed when he calls me a liar simply for quoting directly from a report written by experts in a subject that he claims to know a bit about 🙁
Asha,
Labor spent too much time talking about why they should be voted into government, and not nearly enough time talking about why the Coalition should be kicked out of government.
On the money, imho.
Which is why hounding Angus Taylor every week for ever makes strategic sense. It has to be in the news all the time for opinions against the government to shift and harden. If it didn’t change the polls this week, who cares? How often did the polls have the LNP winning in the lead up to May?
Albanese is going well.
He gets it that the Left need to swing half a dozen or so regional seats from the Coalition column to the Labor column.
So he does something useful. He goes to regional seats to talk to people about what their needs and wants are.
They vote.
Internet laughs out loud after Trump press secretary Stephanie Grisham says ‘let’s be honest’
The credibility gap that has plagued official spokespeople for Donald Trump resulted in hilarious responses after she began her latest defense of the president with, “Let’s be honest.”
It started when Washington Post reporter David Nakamura noted an unfortunate young man who was stuck sitting next to Trump as the commander-in-chief issued a lie-filled rant about the “overthrow of government” in America.
Grisham, who has yet to deliver a daily White House press briefing, attempted to blame the press for Trump’s rant.
Grisham was brutally mocked for making such a statement with her credibility issues.
Former Bill Clinton press secretary Joe Lockhart blasted Grisham in a reply.
“Let’s be a little more honest. Most Presidents don’t talk about attempts to overthrow the government and denounce his own FBI in front of anyone,” Lockhart noted. “No excuse for your guy.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/internet-laughs-out-loud-after-trump-press-secretary-stephanie-grisham-says-lets-be-honest/
Perhaps something that could be discussed at a COAG meeting? Except there’s only been one COAG meeting in the whole of 2019.
Should Morrison wait until it rains before introducing any policies?
Dinosaur see no elephant. Or comet.
ScoMo on ABC TV News expressing, on the nation’s behalf horror, sadness and shock as the terrible extent of the natural disaster unfolds before our eyes. He warns that there is much worse news to come.
He’s talking about the NZ volcano, of course.
Asha Leu – I tend to agree with most of your post at 11.31am, thank you.
I would, though, emphasize what I see as the overall summary of your post, which is that there were a lot of things going on. No single one of those things was the definitive “thing wot lost it for Labor”. But the whole raft of them together turned into the toxic mess we got.
So, no it wasn’t “Teh Greens” alone, nor Palmer alone, nor Shorten’s leadership alone, nor Franking Credits, nor “they’re coming for your utes”, nor death taxes lies, nor the polling, nor Adani, nor the convoy, etc … but all of the above and more. And because there’s no one big central lesson to take away from the 2019 fiasco it inevitably finds people making points on some subset (usually corresponding to and reinforcing some personally preferred theme) that then get turned into an endless battle “it woz! it wozn’t!” when the answer is almost certainly, given the breadth of failure of the Labor campaign, “a bit from column A and a bit from columns B through Z”.
I’d also make the point that democracy, and the centre/left in democracies around the world, generally seem to be struggling, so the ALP’s failure can also be seen in a meta-sense as simply part of a worldwide phenomenon. I would guess that the rise of social media has to be central to that, but the gig economy, the failure of democracies (and, of course, the voters in democracies) to tackle the big issues, the hangover of the GFC/neoliberal policies tarnishing globalism/internationalism are all probably factors in this as well. Perhaps the bad faith actors in our new social media globalism have just finally perfected the formula for harnessing outrage to divide, conquer and screw us all.
Finally, we get a comment today from Morrison on the devastating bushfires and smoke blanketing the East Coast – with the threat of even worse to come. What does he say?
Simon Katichsays:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 12:02 pm
Could he see the journalists?
Is the haze, a Liberal smokescreen?
BW
I see you continue the myth that winning regional seats means Labor has to support the LNP narrative on coal.
Read BB’s post. He is spot on.
The lesson for Labor from the polling is lack of trust.
Labor failed to get Gonski as the election issue.
Labor failed to get Health as the election issue.
Stop blaming the Greens for being effective campaigners.
Labor would be effective looking at the net gains to be made nationally. Not just a few seats in Queensland.
The only reason we are seeing this is because some in Labor have bought the LNP narrative hook line and sinker.
Labor has lost its values and as a result its ability to fight Tories.
Instead it’s all too hard we accept the LNP narrative that fighting for a carbon price is hopeless.
Ditto many policies. Why. Labor has accepted the narrative of the LNP confirming they can’t be trusted.
People trust the LNP to be the LNP.
Labor can never win by being the LNP.
Time to wake up and smell the coffee. A decade of Labor can’t be trusted will follow as long as Labor lets the LNP run their policy.
‘Confessions says:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 12:01 pm
Claire Bickers@claire_bickers
3h3 hours ago
Despite all the public ‘chest beating’ over Murray-Darling, NSW water minister hasn’t spoken to SA water minister in months @theTiser’
The NSW Government has publicly repeated that it is prepared to fuck South Australia over in terms of both water and salt delivery.
Jackol:
Well put.
Davidwh:
That the PM announces a further draft of the religious freedom bill at a time when practically half the country is fighting out of control bushfires says it all about his government’s priorities.
Player Onesays:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 11:13 am
Pegasus @ #156 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 10:56 am
Greg Jeicho
The Coalition isn’t being honest about the climate crisis. But neither is Labor
Greg Jericho seems to understand. A shame more Labor people don’t seem to.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
I have a lot of time for Jericho. He usually makes sense. Then he writes this:
It is 2019 and the ALP acts as if putting a price on carbon is the most radical and politically horrific idea ever conceived (and never shows any pride that the carbon price introduced under Gillard was one the biggest economic reforms of the past 40 years).
:::
Voters can tell straight away you’re only trying to look like you think climate change is real, and why should they vote for that? They might as well vote for the party that is at least upfront about its denial.
……………………………………………………………………………….
Now let me see if I get his logic.
First, when Labor was last in government they legislated to put a price on carbon.
Two, this was a good thing (though claiming it was one [of] the biggest economic reforms of the last 40 years is a stretch seeing it was repealed so rapidly).
Three, Labor showing concern for coal miners’ jobs is demonstration that Labor only wants to look like it thinks climate change is real. Not actually do anything.
Ergo, voters are right to vote LNP on the issue of climate change because the LNP is at least authentic in its denial.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Greg’s logic exposed reveals its escape from reality.
First, as I recall (maybe Greg can’t remember that far back, tho he claims 40 years past) when Gillard introduced a price on carbon she was hunted by the media and reviled the length and breadth of this ever browning land for mendaciously introducing a carbon tax, having promised (so the story went) not to introduce one. How did Labor go in that election Greg? You know, the one where they had a great climate change policy they stood by.
Secondly, exposing a bit of empathy to coal miners does NOT mean you are a climate denier (though I do accept an enormous amount of crocodile tears ARE shed for the few mining jobs that would be lost if every coal mine was shut down tomorrow – mainly from those who own the coal mines and their paid off mates in Parliament and the media).
Thirdly, voters have had a clear choice in every election since 2007 to vote for a party that accepts the science on climate change and is committed to do something about it or a party that is sufficiently full of climate deniers it will block any meaningful action. [John Hewson claims that he had a climate change policy back in 1993 and that the ALP did not so maybe this explains “the sweetest victory of all” – the coal miners heard.]
To write columns that condemn Labor for caring for the loss of coal mining jobs and concluding that a vote for the LNP on climate change is more authentic could not suit the coal miners more. I do hope Greg gets to pick up a check for the effort.
‘Confessions says:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 12:13 pm
Davidwh:
That the PM announces a further draft of the religious freedom bill at a time when practically half the country is fighting out of control bushfires says it all about his government’s priorities.’
Maybe a couple of thousand fireys. Maybe a few thousand property owners prepping.
Did Jericho take a long hard look at Zero/2030?
No?
Strange!
Princes Highway has been re-opened.
Boerwar:
Yes, well. You get my drift 😀
Windhover
I see you are busy proving Greg Jericho exactly right.
No fight in Labor. Just lay down it’s too hard to fight the evil media and LNP after there is proof it worked. Plus lowered power prices.
The fact Labor is avoiding the slogan
ABC noon news showing a hall full of volunteers who have helped prepare 20,000 sangers for the volunteer fireys. They are stoic and philosophical and salt of the earth.
Labor needs to get with those volunteers. Wonderful people.
You would think Morrison would be concerned about the effect on tourism, what with ‘where the bloody hell are you” and all that..
Where the bloody hell are you in all that smoke?
That the PM announces a further draft of the religious freedom bill at a time when practically half the country is fighting out of control bushfires says it all about his government’s priorities.
Time to bring out the long-handle, Albo.
By the by, what’s the chance our PM reckons fires are afflicting only the undeserving?
LEAN has attacked the greens for their hysterical rhetoric and attacks on Albanese and labor policy supporting the continued export of coal.
Who will guytaur and other posters who pretend they have their fingers of the pulse of the real world and the realities with which Albanese and labor are facing now hold up as the shining light to support their bubble induced crusade to “ save labor”?
LEAN has told the greens to stick it up their arse. Simple as that.
Those tourists would be asking ‘Where the bloody hell are we?!’
Windhover @ #235 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 12:14 pm
If Greg Jericho is out of touch with reality, it may be because he is trying to comprehend a Labor policy that is itself out of touch with reality.
There is simply no way that Labor’s current “policy” on coal can be taken seriously. If you take it at face value (which I accept is perhaps not the right way to take it – it is more in the nature of a dog whistle to the coal industry than a policy) then it is simply contrary to fact, logic and reason. The policy has (as I keep pointing out) been specifically repudiated by experts in the UN, the IPCC, and by 11,000 independent scientists. You know … the experts.
You might forgive them this if it looked like it might win them the next election – but it won’t. Labor has dangerously misread the changing mood of the electorate.
Guytuar, I appreciate your attempts to convince Labor to greenify their rhetoric, but you would be better off commenting on the disaster unfolding under the Liberal watch.
Cc: Peg, Rex, nth, mundo and others who know who they are
“That the PM announces a further draft of the religious freedom bill at a time when practically half the country is fighting out of control bushfires says it all about his government’s priorities.”
***
Maybe he subscribes to the Folau view of the world and thinks that the way to prevent bushfires is by keeping his god happy or something like that. Honestly wouldn’t surprise me if he thinks that way.