First up, note that you can find Adrian Beaumont’s latest British election post immediately below this one, and that The Guardian has preliminary details of what will presumably be the last Essential Research poll for the year, which I will blog about this evening when the full report is available (suffice to say for now that it still doesn’t feature voting intention numbers).
Now on to some further observations from the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, at which I took a preliminary look at the tail end of the previous post. Over the fold at the bottom of this post you can find a Sankey diagram showing how respondents’ vote choices in 2016 and 2019 compared, based on the slightly contingency of their recollections of what they did three years ago.
These suggest the Coalition actually lost a sizeable chunk of voters to Labor – 5.1% of the total, compared with only 1.6% going the other way. I might take a closer look at the survey responses for that 5.1% one day, but presumably they were the kind of Malcolm Turnbull-supporting voter who drove the swing to Labor in affluent inner urban areas. The key point is that the Coalition was able to make good this loss out of those who were in the “others” camp (i.e. everyone but the Coalition, Labor and the Greens) in 2016 – both directly, in that fully 30% of “others” from 2016 voted Coalition this time (or 4.1% of voters overall, compared with 1.6% who went from others to Labor), and indirectly, in that their preference share from what remained went from 50.8% to 56.3%.
Before that, some other general observations based on my reading of the ANU’s overview of its findings:
• The survey adds context for some intuitively obvious points: that the Coalition won because self-identified swinging voters rated them better to handle the economy, taxation and leadership, and rated those issues the most determinants of their vote choice. Labor’s strengths were, as ever, health and environment, which rated lower on the importance scale, and education, which hardly featured.
• Coalition and Labor voters weren’t vastly in their opinions on negative gearing and franking credits, with support and opposition being fairly evenly divided for both. However, there were enormously divided on their sense of the importance of global warming, which was rated extremely important by 64% of Labor voters but only 22% of Coalition voters.
• A drop in support for Labor among women caused the gender gap to moderate compared with 2016, although the unchanged 10% gap on the Liberal vote remains remarkable by recent historic standards. The new normal of Liberal doing better among men and Labor among women only really goes back to 2010 – back in the Keating era, it was Labor who had the women problem.
• Scott Morrison trounced Bill Shorten on popularity, their respective mean ratings on a zero-to-ten scale being 5.14 and 3.97.
• The number of respondents professing no party identity reached a new peak of 21%, maintaining a trend going back to 2010.
• The 2018 leadership coup was received as badly as the 2010 coup against Kevin Rudd. The 2013 and 2015 coups were less badly received, but both scored over 50% disapproval.
• Long-term trends show a steady erosion in trust in government, satisfaction with democracy and belief government is run for “all the people”, although the 2019 results weren’t particularly worse than 2016. Satisfaction with democracy is poor compared to the countries with which Australia is normally compared – though slightly higher than the United Kingdom, which is presumably one symptom among many of Brexit.
Based on weighted results from the AES survey, this shows how votes moved between the parties at the 2016 election (on the left) and the 2019 election (on the right). Roll your mouse pointer over it to see the percentage figures.
Peg,
Coalition and Labor voters weren’t vastly in their opinions on negative gearing and franking credits, with support and opposition being fairly evenly divided for both. However, there were enormously divided on their sense of the importance of global warming, which was rated extremely important by 64% of Labor voters but only 22% of Coalition voters.
On current votes. Surely you noticed the Coalition are now in power?
Hence, Labor needs to appeal to an additional cohort of voters to gain power.
Now, given that only 22% of LNP voters consider CC extremely important, I’m not sure that’s the best angle to take to get them to switch. I’d also question anyone who rated CC extremely important and then voted for the LNP – there may be some other latent element to their decision not picked up in the surveys, such as base tribalism, their level of engagement and/or their cognitive faculties.
Fucking hell, this place is tiresome at the moment.
Thanks William for the illuminating write-up, however. Strange to see just how many votes Labor took off the Coalition and how few the Coalition got off of Labor – it really was the preferences that did it, in the end, wasn’t it?
Nath @10:39. Typical “Liberal”. Sneer at all the “elites” except the only ones that count – those with money. Possibly sporting elites too provided they don’t say the wrong stuff (like “maybe we need to do something about climate change”).
nath
Andrew Bolt – Kitching and the rise of Conservative Labor:
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/kitching-and-the-rise-of-conservative-labor/news-story/f358762146fd0008efecee62c2149d83
Kimberley Kitching caters for Labor’s conservative core:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/kitching-caters-for-labors-conservative-core/news-story/ea0737a7aeb075f37dc59582cc10a16c
Bolt and the Australian onside – Huzzah!
nath
And by golly those gels from $25,000 pa Brissie schools can spot “smug elitism” a mile off.
Greg Jeicho
The Coalition isn’t being honest about the climate crisis. But neither is Labor
Of course we need to think about those who will be affected by mine closures, but cripes, we’re all affected by climate change
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/dec/10/the-coalition-isnt-being-honest-about-the-climate-crisis-but-neither-is-labor
Confessions
The tweet that you quoted from AgentSmart needs to viewed in context on twitter. The comment was made in reply to a tweet criticising Morrison’s press conference on the New Zealand volcano. It was an entirely reasonable tongue-in-cheek comment.
The Australian prime minister has called a press conference to talk about the New Zealand volcano eruption. JUST. LET. THAT. SINK. IN.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 10:22 am
RI
BS. Labor’s left is against coal mining expansion.
Not existing jobs. Expansion.
Labor has caved on policy because it has lost the trust of voters and has totally bought the LNP is right narrative.
You are mistaken. Labor needs to walk on both sides of the street. We need to support jobs while also taking effective action in relation to the environment. There is very wide, cross-factional recognition of this in Labor. You could not be expected to know this because you are not of Labor, nor are you for Labor. You are for trying to tell Labor how it can become a branch of the Greens.
Jolyon
Thanks. 🙂
I’m reading that ScoMo is going to NZ, I suppose to throw his empathy at Jacinda. So much more comfortable flying in his new plane to NZ than walkaing around the smoke of NSW.
test
nath
Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 10:39 am
Comment #148
Quiet wisdom. What could that be ❓
A Quiet Wisdom
by
Peggy Connolly (Goodreads Author)
This is a heartwarming story of the journey of a mother and her intellectually developmentally disabled daughter finding each other. It is told by the mother who beautifully calls on Japanese art forms to describe the perfect imperfections of her child and the unexpected gifts that her daughter has brought to the world as a wise and present teacher not only to her mother …more ….
Note to self – bone up on Japanese art forms.👺 (Japanese Goblin).
Note 2 – I see the mansion – with an aging gunfighter, shot four times with a forty four – sagging and falling through the the second story veranda rails into the immaculate hedge.
“I find it interesting that the most vociferous and nastiest posters here on PB all seem to be from the same coal-loving Labor faction. To me, that speaks volumes.”
***
So true.
Confessions @ #150 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 10:46 am
And this is where we part company, I’m afraid. A plan that depends on simply waiting until Labor is re-elected to do something about global warming is very likely a futile plan. It is in effect a plan to do nothing. Which is, of course, why it is the plan being promoted by a surprising number of Labor supporters here.
The reality is that Labor currently has very little prospect of winning the next election, and for exactly the same reasons they lost the last one – they have clearly not learned much from their loss. At least, not yet.
Sure, it is still worth both agitating for the current government to take action, and also trying to convince Labor to change their policies to make them more likely to win the next election – we would be foolish to miss any opportunity, however remote.
But if anything is going to be done on global warming, it will very likely have to be done by people not governments.
You can’t see the Harbour Bridge from Circular Quay (distance under one km): https://cafesydney.com/explore-our-venue/live-cam
The cruise ship at the Overseas Terminal is barely visible.
The smoke today is the worst it’s been in the weeks of fires we’ve had.
Two observations re the excellent ANU analysis and the current state of play.
1. Albo’s skill in marginalising Greens should not be underestimated. Exhibit A his huge margin in Grayndler, where Greens dominate at state level and probably would at council but for his protege Darcy Byrne’s local dominance.
2. Clive Palmer’s predictable, but impossible to miss, late ad blitz was key in the disengaged voter drift from Others to Coalition that we now see was decisive. You’ll recall Clive’s messaging was all about Big Bad Bill . He will expect a dividend at some point from ScoMo. Watch and wait.
Horns blaring on Sydney Harbour as visibility deteriorates
If it needed to be viewed on twitter, in context, to be fully appreciated or understood, then little wonder commenters didn’t understand or appreciate the tweet.
RI @ #158 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 10:56 am
You are mistaken. We are heading down a one-way street. Trying to walk both sides just makes you look idiotic.
Steve777:
The video doesn’t load for me.
I’m having trouble coming to grips with the voting flows in the above article and chart.
It seems Labor gained a net 3.5% from the Coalition but lost 1.4% overall. That must mean Labor gained 5% somewhere (ignoring Greens flows both ways). Are we supposed to take from that that unhappy ex-Labor voters shifted their votes to ON and PUP? Seems highly unlikely at the levels the above seems to indicate.
Pegasus @ #156 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 10:56 am
Greg Jericho seems to understand. A shame more Labor people don’t seem to.
But if anything is going to be done on global warming, it will very likely have to be done by people not governments.
This is obviously wrong. Were this possible then global heating would have been averted by now. State power must be used to change the economy and the energy system. It is precisely because of this that the Right apply so many resources to the political contest. The Right go on winning. Those who want change fight among themselves and contribute to the success of their opponents.
It’s worth repeating Confessions’ comment:
This is critical.
No matter how imperfect they are, Labor must get elected to get the action we need to halt Climate Change.
Neither getting angry at what Kitching is reported to have said or done, nor nodding sagely in agreeance
with Greg Jericho, is going to help.
Only people on the inside, like C@t, have any hope of changing their policies (and I doubt she can do very much). We must do what we can to get Labor elected. Then we can work on improving their policies.
Live cam of Sydney harbour that loads:
https://webcamsydney.com/
Apparently Jericho has not noticed that Labor have lost 4 elections in a row and is now in its weakest position since WW1. Rather than campaigning against the LNP, Jericho adds to the Green campaign against Labor. This is to invite self-defeat….a well-worn Green tactic.
(Redundant post deleted)
Essential poll findings:
Whilst some PBers banged on endlessly about Angus Taylor…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/10/morrison-gets-thumbs-up-from-coalition-voters-but-overall-disapproval-rises-essential-poll
Maude Lynne @ #175 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 11:14 am
If we are depending on people like C@t or the Four Musketeers then we are already doomed 🙁
Thanks Steve777. I remembered you’ve posted the webcam previously and Googled it.
I have never seen Sydney harbour looking like that outside of a very foggy morning or with a storm passing through!
RI @ #177 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 11:17 am
Yet another contender for the “least self aware” post ever on PB.
“For my part, I’m from Labor’s Left.”
***
lol good one mate. If you are what qualifies as the Labor Left these days then no wonder the left have been abandoning Labor in droves over the last few decades.
Really though, you’re about as far to the right as it gets in Labor and rather than being part of the Labor Left, you and others like you are a big reason why so many of the left are leaving Labor. People like you are pushing them away.
Arundhati Roy
“There’s no such thing as the voiceless, only the deliberately silenced and the preferably unheard.”
Davidwh says:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 11:10 am
I’m having trouble coming to grips with the voting flows in the above article and chart.
It seems Labor gained a net 3.5% from the Coalition but lost 1.4% overall. That must mean Labor gained 5% somewhere (ignoring Greens flows both ways). Are we supposed to take from that that unhappy ex-Labor voters shifted their votes to ON and PUP? Seems highly unlikely at the levels the above seems to indicate.
Sometime Labor voters lost their Labor affiliations and migrated to the LNP, often via the minor pop-right voices. The basic binary holds and voters travel by various pathways from one plurality to the other. Labor did far less well from the ‘other’ vote in 2019 than in 2016. Doubtless, the Palmer campaign helped propel voters to the LNP.
The destruction of the old-Labor plurality has been underway since the 1990s. The LNP get it. They have figured out how to exploit it. So have the Greens.
Bernard Keane, Crikey
https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/12/09/australias-political-class-no-longer-fit-for-purpose/
Australia’s political class — no longer fit for purpose
Australians have less trust than ever in government — they’ve worked out that it’s a system run in the interests of the powerful, not theirs.
Firefox says:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 11:23 am
“For my part, I’m from Labor’s Left.”
***
lol good one mate. If you are what qualifies as the Labor Left these days then no wonder the left have been abandoning Labor in droves over the last few decades.
Really though, you’re about as far to the right as it gets in Labor and rather than being part of the Labor Left, you and others like you are a big reason why so many of the left are leaving Labor. People like you are pushing them away.
I have been recruiting for Labor. I doubt I’ve repelled anyone. I do agitate for a more aggressive posture in relation to the Greens, whom I regard as a mortal threat to social justice and effective policies in the environment.
“The really plain facts are the centre-left has been taking a beating for many years.”
***
Nah, it’s the centre-right (people like you) who have been taking the beating. The true left has been going from strength to strength in Australia, as evidenced by the huge growth of the Greens’ vote over the decades. That’s why you are constantly so negative. You hate the left.
I’m sure many of us will be arguing about this until the end of time, but the more I’ve been thinking about it (and I’ve had a lot of time to dwell on the events of May), the more I’ve come to the conclusion that the main reason we lost is this:
Labor spent too much time talking about why they should be voted into government, and not nearly enough time talking about why the Coalition should be kicked out of government.
There are several reasons for this – the attraction that “positive campaigns” always seem to hold for the centre-left, the dodgy polling leading to the assumption that the electorate were far more angry with the government than in reality, the poorly-handled franking credits policy both wasting energy and opening them up to the mother of all scare campaigns, general complacency due to a win feeling almost inevitable . The end result was that, with the coup against Turnbull, Morrison’s early gaffes, and recent government scandals fading into the past, the disengaged and apathetic electorate were starting to forget just what was supposed to be so bad about the government, while also being inundated with with hysterical material about how Labor’s going to take their pensions and their inheritances and their utes.
Adani and Queensland were, in my opinion, a bit of a sideshow to the main event. The convoy, the CFMEU, the fence-sitting by Labor and wedging by both the Libs and the Greens – that was all damaging and contributed to the loss, no doubt. But I reckon that had they went on the attack far more, had they spent time repeatedly pointing out all the bad stuff the Coalition had already done instead of vague crap about “cuts” and “chaos”, had they either dropped the franking credits policy or at least done a far better job of both downplaying it’s presence in the campaign and combatting the scare campaign, they could have still won, even if the result in Queensland had been exactly the same.
People are saying the issue was that Labor went to the election with too many or too detailed policies, and that next election they should just make some vague, substance-free promises instead, because that’s obviously what the dumb voters want. I’d like to think there’s a happy medium that can be found between opening yourself to massive scare campaigns and going to an election with barely any policies. The bigger issue was in picking the wrong hills to die on (franking credits!!!), and in wasting so much oxygen talking about this policies when they should have been trying to move the narrative over to rubbishing the Coalition’s. In particularly, while there were some feeble attempts at drumming up fear at the “cuts and chaos” to come after the election, there was precious little talk about all the horrendous shit that government had already done. Oppositions should be badmouthing stuff that has already happened – it’s governments that try to create fear about things the opposition will do if elected. Compare to, say, 2013 – Abbott’s big bogeymen were the boats, mining tax, carbon tax, and debt, all things that had happened or were presently happening. When a government has been in power for nearly six years, spending your time complaining about the things they will do rather than what they have done starts to give off a bit of a “boy who cried wolf” vibe.
As for Shorten, his low popularity and charisma, er, deficiencies didn’t help, but with a better campaign that wouldn’t have mattered. Problem was, it wasn’t a good campaign, and a more charismatic, likeable leader can rise above a dodgy campaign, but Shorten, while I still have a fair bit of time for the guy, definitely was not any of those things.
I think people here massively overstate the impact the Greens had (and still have.) They didnt help, and the convoy was very dumb and ill-thought out, but to suggest they are to blame for the loss is nonsense, or that Labor is “fucked” while the Greens remain, is utter nonsense, and reeks of an inability to actually examine one’s team objectively and accept your mistakes. That said, contrary to the popular belief developing here as of late, I don’t believe this is actually a view held by anyone who has any sort of power within the Labor party itself. Certainly, I’ve talked and heard from a decent amount of people who could be considered Labor insiders, and the general view of the Greens is that they are an annoyance that’s best ignored, not “the evil,” and there seems to be a general perception that the loss was mainly due to the our own mistakes more than anything else. (I’ll add too, though, that the LibLab and “both parties are as bad as each other on the environment” stuff is both total nonsense and playing right into the Coalition’s hands.)
2022 (or whenever it is held) is still very winnable, in my opinion. But it won’t be won if we don’t learn from the mistakes of 2019 and just spend our time blaming everyone else for the loss, or just give up and moan that “we are fucked.”
RI @ #187 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 11:29 am
You have repelled me. Also, when my partner asked me why I didn’t rejoin Labor, I showed them some of the posts here on PB. They have now also decided they will leave Labor – and they were a union rep during their working career!
Neither of us will ever give Labor our first preference vote again.
Well done.
Asha….you could save yourself a lot of time by asking how come it is that Labor’s PV in Queensland is now 1/4? How come it is that in the battler outer suburbs of Perth, there was a swing to the LNP?
Labor will not another election until it wins in Queensland and in WA.
“I have been recruiting for Labor.”
***
Oh boy. Maybe you and Boer are right then. Labor is indeed fucked if they’re letting people like you do their recruiting lol
p1….you are an aggressive bludger. You’re also full of it. You’re an anti-Labor klaxon. A vuvuzela for the Greens. I disagree with nearly everything you post.
‘nath says:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 10:28 am
If the Greens ever do dissolve themselves they will be replaced by another party on the spectrum…’
Yep.
Scott Morrison gave a presser this morning at Kirribilli House, about the NZ volcano tragedy.
He refused to take questions about the elephant in the room.
Firefox says:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 11:35 am
“I have been recruiting for Labor.”
***
Oh boy. Maybe you and Boer are right then. Labor is indeed fucked if they’re letting people like you do their recruiting lol
The conceits of the Greens…..’people like you….’…..like what, exactly? People that do not buy Green Herrings?
And Republicans continue to defend Trump. It’s quite unfathomable.
It’s not just coordination of existing assets and human resources that are needed. It’s future planning.