BludgerTrack is back, sort of – you can find a permanent link on the sidebar along with a miniature version of its main attraction, namely polling trends for leader approval and preferred prime minister. These go back to the onset of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership in August last year, and thus encompass distinct Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese epochs.
As you can see, Morrison has mostly gravitated around neutral on his net rating (i.e. approval minus disapproval), barring a post-election surge that has now run its course. Shorten’s position appeared to improve during the election campaign, which was also picked up in Labor’s internal polling, though clearly not far enough. Albanese has mostly been around neutral, but as a newcomer he has a high uncommitted rating, which doesn’t come through when you reduce it to a net measure. This is how he manages to do worse than Shorten on preferred prime minister (although a narrowing trend kicked in here a few months ago) despite doing better on net approval.
I haven’t included the most recent Newspoll result at this stage, as this is clearly a distinct new series for which I will require a few more results before I can standardise it against the other polls. On the basis of this limited evidence, the new-look Newspoll’s leader rating scores can be expected to behave somewhat differently from the old. As Kevin Bonham notes, the new poll has markedly worse net ratings for both leaders, as uncommitted rates are lower and disapproval higher.
Needless to say, what’s missing in all this is voting intention, for which I am going to need a good deal more data before I reckon it worth my while. If you’re really keen though, Mark the Ballot has gone to the trouble of running a trendline through all six of the Newspoll results post-election. If nothing else, my BludgerTrack page features a “poll data” tab on which voting intention polls will be catalogued, which for the time being is wall-to-wall Newspoll. And while I have your attention, please note as per the post above that I’ve got the begging bowl out – donations gratefully received through the link at the top of the page.
Confessions @ #392 Sunday, December 1st, 2019 – 10:49 am
Oh really?
So is Graeme Murphy.
Too much solar – or rather, too much at the wrong time – threatens to create an unbalanced grid. Rooftop solar is now the “biggest generator” in Western Australia, and the government is worried.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-01/rise-of-rooftop-solar-power-jeopardising-wa-energy-grid/11731452
Solutions need to be co-ordinated and “smart” or else solar electricity gluts due to sunny days in times of low demand (e.g. Spring and Autumn) can clobber baseload generation which is difficult and expensive to modulate.
Solutions proposed include smarter battery networks, whether household or grid scale. I can think of another: desalination on a mass scale, for either irrigation or hydro storage, or both.
It needs a mindset change, a new way of looking at sunshine as a natural resource.
Western Australia is a unique case because of its isolation from the national energy grid.
If you are interested in MDB water issues this is a good read. It has some howlers in it. The aim is not to shift ‘2’ tonnes of salt to the sea on average per year. It is 2 million tonnes. The article also asks a key question and then fails to answer it which is a bit frustrating.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-12-01/canning-murray-barling-basin-plan-solves-none-of-the-problems/11734440
Simon Katich says:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 10:38 am
Interesting take on public health insurance in the US.
https://www.politico.com/news/agenda/2019/11/25/is-medicare-for-all-right-answer-wrong-idea-072462
-0-
Extraordinary!! Washington state borders on Canada. It is a relatively short drive from Seattle to Vancouver. Nowhere in that article does Politico mention that Canada has had “medicare for all” for more than 50 years. Yes, and Canada still exists despite that fact.
Canadians have never seen a hospital or doctor’s bill (that includes specialists) for more than half a century. That includes raising a family and covering the usual health issues for aging adults. And there is virtually no criticism of the system from the medical profession.
Unlike Australia’s “crock” of a health system, in Canada there are no caps, no “gaps,” no co-payments and no private health insurance industry for hospital and standard G.P. and specialist treatment, in and outside of hospitals. Virtually all medical tests are bulk-billed.
It baffles me why U.S. politicians are unable to resist the attacks from the medical, pharmaceutical and insurance industries which are wheeled out every time someone like Bernie Sanders suggests an alternative to the present dysfunctional system. It’s almost the same kind of reaction to gun control in that crazy democracy.
It’s the same here. I’ve contacted Labor’s shadow health minister a couple times to ask why doesn’t Labor go for a medical for all campaign and I have received no reply.
Yet instead there are continuing articles (SMH Saturday) in the media agonizing over the health of the ailing private health insurance industry in this country.
In Canada in the 1960’s, it took a couple of outstanding politicians, Premier Tommy Douglas of Saskatchewan and Nobel Peace Prize-winner Prime Minister Lester Pearson in Ottawa to demonstrate courage and leadership to take on the vested interests. They crafted a feature of Canadian identity that has become iconic.
When Canadians are asked what makes them different than their southern neighbours they almost unanimously cite Medicare (for “all”).
Anyone who claims that Jeremy Corbyn, a staunch and consistent anti-racism campaigner, is an anti-Semite is engaging in Goebbels-like propaganda. Corbyn’s main sin is that he doesn’t regard the Palestinians as sub-human scum who can be oppressed without consequences. This position infuriates many people in the Israeli lobby.
Lambie is far more real to most people than any cabal of Inner Urbs Hipsters could ever hope to be.
She was from the OR in the ADF. Not the officer class.
She has a child who has battled addiction.
She can be earthy. Too tart for the wowsers?
Her accent is instantly recognizable as ‘our’ accent to a lot of people and definitely not what ABC presenters elocute.
So what if she is inconsistent, has occasional difficulties with complexity and stumbles instead of being yet another glib robopollie?
She is rambuctious, somewhat unseemly for a woman for some?
She has had a shit fight with DVA. So do lots of other vets. Par for the course.
I can understand why the people who advocate Zero/2030 and who intend wrecking swathes of rural and regional Australia do not like Lambie. She is one of the ‘Other’.
‘Nicholas says:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 11:20 am
Anyone who claims that Jeremy Corbyn, a staunch and consistent anti-racism campaigner, is an anti-Semite is engaging in Goebbels-like propaganda. Corbyn’s main sin is that he doesn’t regard the Palestinians as sub-human scum who can be oppressed without consequences. This position infuriates many people in the Israeli lobby.’
Yet another drive by rant by Nicholas who absolute refuses to engage in the details of the discussion.
Turgid fabrications are still fabrications. Calling Jeremy Corbyn is an anti-semite is a repugnant lie.
Just a minor point. NSW general security licences = Victorian ‘low security’ licences. These are different from high security water licences.
I haven’t checked the latest advice but I believe that we will get part of our high security licence allocations this year and zero for our low security licences. We expect this because, in a drought, low security licences get hind tit.
The Murray general security licencees who are screaming for allocations know what the game is. They avoided buying the high security licences they needed to ensure some continuity of water supply. But poor capital management means that they now have to buy on the spot market. And, predictably, paying spot price for a scarce commodity during an ongoing drought is going to be deadly.
In these circumstances, blaming everyone else is a bit rich, IMO.
‘Nicholas says:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 11:25 am
Turgid fabrications are still fabrications. Calling Jeremy Corbyn is an anti-semite is a repugnant lie.’
Yet another drive by swipe by Nicholas who once again resolutely avoids dealing with the specifics.
BB
Coal fired power has the same problem of cyclic oversupply, on a different timescale. We call it off peak.
It is possible to fix both problems.
Nicholas
Well said.
For those who feel the need to be cheered up:
https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/can-humanity-survive-the-21st-century-20160926-grohqo.html
“It needs a mindset change, a new way of looking at sunshine as a natural resource.“
Extending it beyond WA – Mindset changes come hard in our current political climate where the narrative is so tightly controlled by conservative forces.
Similarly the US wrt health. It will be a massive change to Medicare for all, both technically and culturally. That article outlines how Wash state has at least made public insurance available to all – a direct competitor to private health. I wonder if that is the only way to start…. then hope it snowballs.
One wild card in the coming months is Barilaro.
His general stance on the environment can be gleaned from his support for degazetting national parks.
He believes that, as far as water is concerned, South Australia should GAGF.
He believes that now is the time to divert remaining environment water holdings into irrigation.
He has threatened to walk away from the Plan.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/04/jeremy-corbyn-says-he-regrets-calling-hamas-and-hezbollah-friends
c@t
Well, that certainly gives some flesh and bones to one of Nicholas’s ‘turgid fabrications’.
Seeing as we are discussing the UK election.
The Tories must be panicked. They have stopped with the weaponisation of antisemitism and moved to blaming Labor for the terror attacks on London Bridge.
Nine years in. Voters will be turned off by that. Just as they were during the May campaign.
Its either desperation or they just don’t learn. The latest polls have Labour up by 2 and the Tories down by 1
Given the narrow margins in the many seats the Tories are in the lead by that could be very bad news for the Tories. Remembering the polls don’t measure the additional voters who have registered or the ones that won’t turn out for many various reasons including death.
The desperation is for clear reasons. BoJO needs a clear majority. A close win or a hung parliament is a loss for Johnson and his No Deal Brexit agenda. Likely to cause another election before the five years is up.
This is why the antisemitism stuff is being run and we should not avoid this truth. The Tories are scumbags using race as a weapon.
mundosays:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 10:25 am
These comments’ highlight the superficial nature of their owners.
Jeremy Corbyn is not an anti-Semite, indeed Corbyn has been a consistent anti-racist for all of his political career. Also, I would argue that one can be anti-Zionist, while not being anti-Semitic. The only mistake Corbyn has done is not to combat anti-Semitic elements in the Labour Party.
On the other hand, Boris Johnson has made numerous racist and Islamophobic statements. In addition many in the Conservative party hold at least Islamophobic sentiments and the party has not made an meaningful effort to combat Islamophobia.
@guytaur
I am now predicting another hung parliament, with the Scottish National Party and possibly the Liberal Democrats in the box seat. Also, some prominent Brexiters such as Dominc Rabb and even to a much lesser extent Boris Johnson could lose their seats.
Re. an article from BK’s Dawn Patrol:
[‘But it isn’t only saying the words aloud that has stopped; we avoid considering our own mortality. In the UK, a country with a 100% death rate, only 40% of adults have written a will. Worse, a mere 6% of us have nominated a lasting power of attorney…’]
I reckon the death rate here might also be close to 100% and not having a will and an EPOA is pretty slack, with the potential to cause all manner of problems on death. If you’re tight, you can buy a will kit from a newsagency for around $20; these usually pass muster. You can also go to the A-G site in your state or territory to fill in an EPOA and an AHD. Here’s the Queensland link:
https://www.publications.qld.gov.au/dataset/power-of-attorney-and-advance-health-directive/resource/94c27605-28ad-4e71-846b-04b0d66ef3b8
Complex wills – say, with a testamentary trust – should be drawn by one of those damn money-hungry legal practitioners. It’s also handy to have a major asset such as real property in joint names, as it’ll pass to the surviving joint tenant by the survivorship rule, not by a will, which is cool if you don’t have a one. Attention is also drawn to family provision legislation, which can put a spanner in the works. Just ask
Blanche d’Alpuget. (Shortest will that didn’t comply with legal formalities but was nonetheless approved: ‘All to mum’ – the intention of the testator being the paramount concern of the courts)
The main problem with the MDB plan seems go be that it was not designed to cope with either drought or climate change.
In a country like Australia, which has spent more of the last 20 years in drought than not, and which is one of the countries expected to be worst affected by climate change, just how dumb can you get?
Now, we seem to be stuck with a plan that can neither be easily fixed nor unwound …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-12-01/canning-murray-barling-basin-plan-solves-none-of-the-problems/11734440
🙁
There is another possibility. It is possible to hold generally anti-racist positions in principle while also, from time-to-time, saying or thinking racist things or even letting racist language or racist behaviour slide right past you. Context is important here. For example, if you are leader of a political party.
Looking back at my early struggles with my own anti-semitism there were times when I said things which were anti-semitic and which were at odds with my general attitude, which was to despise racism in principle.
Tristo
Yes. SNP look like a strong majority.
We could see the break up of the union thanks to David Cameron’s political stupidity in opening up the Brexit box.
So much denial over losing empire. Just like with Marriage Equality. Losing privilege seen as being oppressed being exploited by demagogues and populists.
@guytaur
I believe the Brexiters don’t care much for the Union, they are an essentially English nationalist movement. The collapse of the British empire, led to a questioning among the different nations of the United Kingdom, if they are really British or just say Scottish or English.
Therefore their attitude is that if the Union is dissolved to achieve Brexit, so be it. Then I can seriously believe that a minority Conservative party dependent on SNP support, would agree to holding a second Scottish Independence referendum.
This was supposed to be yet another time bomb that the Coalition inserted prior to the election with a view to having Shorten cop curry:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/01/scott-morrison-puts-off-religious-discrimination-bill-until-2020
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7738205/Corbyn-says-BBC-biased-saying-Israel-right-exist.html
As I said at the time, Warren was going to sustain political damage over her health care policy because she hasn’t been able to credibly explain how she plans to pay for it, nor what happens to the millions of Americans with private health insurance.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-a-fight-over-health-care-entangled-elizabeth-warren–and-reshaped-the-democratic-presidential-race/2019/11/29/40f4d30e-0bb0-11ea-97ac-a7ccc8dd1ebc_story.html
Tristo
The problem for the Brexiteers is that Labour has embraced its leavers not left them behind.
By making the Labour party position clear that any deal has to be confirmed by the people Labour has knocked the ground out from under the Hard Brexit position of Johnson.
This is what the pundits are missing. That then makes it a General Election on issues that Johnson is not fighting.
So unless people are in the cult of listening to Fake News and will only vote on Brexit Labour wins the argument. Its getting that argument out that is Labour’s job. With its leave seats its Johnson is going to sell the NHS could just be doing it. That could see the few thousand votes needed to change in each of those marginal Tory seats and keep the Red Firewall up.
Those leave voters voted Labour last election.
Its like the narrative that Morrison won by a landslide. The voters were unengaged. By definition that means their vote is volatile and is up for the taking at the next election if Labor sells to them much better next campaign. Not what you hear from the pundits.
Whoa! A third of New Zealand’s CO2 emissions come from agriculture.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/01/new-zealand-begins-genetic-program-to-produce-low-methane-emitting-sheep
Now, if Ms Adern were to adopt the Green New Deal, which is based on Zero/2030, then that would inevitably result in a smashing of the NZ economy.
RI
More of Nicholas’s ‘turgid fabrications’?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7738205/Corbyn-says-BBC-biased-saying-Israel-right-exist.html
Fancy the BBC being biased towards Israel having the right to exist! What next?
BW
Yes the BBC has form
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jan/18/bbc-trust-says-laura-kuenssberg-report-on-jeremy-corbyn-was-inaccurate-labour
RI @ #426 Sunday, December 1st, 2019 – 12:04 pm
You can do better than what may even be a carefully-edited video which may not say the logical follow-up of ‘as does Palestine have a right to exist, which the BBC does not say’, and from the Daily Mail. 😐
Ditto, Boerwar. There are none so blind as those who will not see. I thought you were better than relying on the Daily Mail for your ‘proof’.
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/10/labour-party-antisemitism-claims-jeremy-corbyn
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 12:10 pm
Surely Palestine has an equal Right!
Cat
I am glad you see it. I hope this means Labor sees it too. I hope Labor is watching the UK campaign closely. Agree with Corbyn’s policies or not the tactics he uses successfully against the Tory and media allies are good tactic lessons on campaigning Labor can take note of.
The latest being the blame Labour for the terrorist attacks.
The best thing Corbyn has done for Labour is change and challenge the Tory framing of events.
By changing that framing it seems to me Labour has the ability to challenge the National Security bs for every issue the Tories can wedge it into.
We see this here with Senator Lambie talking national security with New Zealand. As if we don’t trust NZ on terrorism. So I hope Labor is learning this ability to challenge this stop talking about something because the LNP say National Security. It seems so from Senator Wong’s interview this morning talking about China.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/william-mcraven-navy-seal-us-is-under-attack-from-trump-2019-10?r=US&IR=T
And still Republicans in congress sit on their hands through the impeachment inquiry, rather than taking all the mounting evidence as proof Trump deserves to be removed from office.
Boerwar
I couldn’t open your SMH link on (?)optimism, but found this under the same title, which suggests that we would be better served by trying to ameliorate the effects of global warming, rather than trying to colonise Mars.
Emoluments clause?
Even by Trump’s corrupt standards, this is quite something.
after catching up on Insiders today I can report that the anti-Fran Kelly mob Who this morning unleashed upon her has maintained It’s reputation for being demented.
In my opinion, the description of complaints of antisemitism as ‘weapons’ is in itself antisemitic. The ‘weaponisation’ tag insists that antisemitism is not real; that claims of antisemitism are confected in order to serve other, ulterior motives; that these motives include aiming for the defeat of Labour.
In fact, UK Jewry is being blamed for defending their political rights and for resisting the anti-Israeli line of some in the Left. Jews will be blamed – they have already been blamed – by the Left for the defeat (if it occurs) of Corbyn’s Labour. This echoes the ‘stab in the back’ rhetoric used against Jews so many times in the past and which really requires that Jews be held to a higher standard of ‘loyalty’ than anyone else.
There is no doubt at all that Jewish Labour MPs have been accused of disloyalty; have been physically and verbally threatened; denounced for speaking up; and face effective expulsion from Labour because they are seen practically by definition to be disloyal to Corbyn. Jews have every right to object to this. Every right. They have every right to speak against this without being required to prove exceptional loyalty to the ruling faction in UK Labour.
The repeated characterisation of Jewish Labour as ‘Blairite’ – something we see rehearsed here at PB – is simply another way of describing Jews as ‘untrustworthy’. It is blame-making. This is the sine qua non of antisemitism. This characterisation is accompanied by demands for the political repression of Jewish MPs along with other ‘traitors’.
This is just disgraceful. But it has happened. Labour is much the worse for wear as a result.
@NPR tweets
Economists say Bernie Sanders’ and Elizabeth Warren’s proposals to forgive millions of Americans of student debt could boost the economy in significant ways — and help combat income inequality. https://n.pr/34BFEDr
RI
Yes all legitimate criticisms against Israel are anti semitic according to you and the Tories.
The Palestinians are not human. While you are at it you can tell Labour why they should not have talked with Sinn Fein to put the Good Friday Agreement in place.
Confessions says:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 12:05 pm
As I said at the time, Warren was going to sustain political damage over her health care policy because she hasn’t been able to credibly explain how she plans to pay for it, nor what happens to the millions of Americans with private health insurance.
-0-
My goodness! The richest nation in the history of the planet can not afford to pay for the health of all of its citizens.
And isn’t it a shame that those millions of Americans with private health insurance will have to switch to much cheaper public insurance.
guytaursays:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 12:40 pm
I never understood why placing a debt like this on young people is a positive for the economy and Society in general.
To me, it places a barrier in front of young people delaying their full participation in the economy and potential decisions like starting a family.
It started half way through my university career and I certainly was in no position to consider entering the property market until I had extinguished it.
Barney
Yes. It has also prevented students from even considering entering the education system. Here we see the increase of this approach with the government attacking the last bastions of free education by gutting TAFE and public schools funding.
Yep. She can have all the logical policies in the world, but will always come unstuck if she can’t credibly explain how she intends to pay for it.
Looks like the marriage of convenience has hit a rocky patch:
Also, why doesn’t Lambie just introduce a private member’s bill to get rid of Setka (assuming that is constitutional)?
Frankly, I don’t understand what Corbyn was on about when he opined that the BBC supported ‘Israel’s right to exist’.
Is this a bad ‘agenda’ to have? Surely the UN settled this nearly three quarters of a century ago? (Apart from various ME nations and organisations that held or hold the view that pushing the Jews into the sea is a desirable outcome.)