A track winding back

A look at leadership approval poll trends, and my new facility for tracking them.

BludgerTrack is back, sort of – you can find a permanent link on the sidebar along with a miniature version of its main attraction, namely polling trends for leader approval and preferred prime minister. These go back to the onset of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership in August last year, and thus encompass distinct Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese epochs.

As you can see, Morrison has mostly gravitated around neutral on his net rating (i.e. approval minus disapproval), barring a post-election surge that has now run its course. Shorten’s position appeared to improve during the election campaign, which was also picked up in Labor’s internal polling, though clearly not far enough. Albanese has mostly been around neutral, but as a newcomer he has a high uncommitted rating, which doesn’t come through when you reduce it to a net measure. This is how he manages to do worse than Shorten on preferred prime minister (although a narrowing trend kicked in here a few months ago) despite doing better on net approval.

I haven’t included the most recent Newspoll result at this stage, as this is clearly a distinct new series for which I will require a few more results before I can standardise it against the other polls. On the basis of this limited evidence, the new-look Newspoll’s leader rating scores can be expected to behave somewhat differently from the old. As Kevin Bonham notes, the new poll has markedly worse net ratings for both leaders, as uncommitted rates are lower and disapproval higher.

Needless to say, what’s missing in all this is voting intention, for which I am going to need a good deal more data before I reckon it worth my while. If you’re really keen though, Mark the Ballot has gone to the trouble of running a trendline through all six of the Newspoll results post-election. If nothing else, my BludgerTrack page features a “poll data” tab on which voting intention polls will be catalogued, which for the time being is wall-to-wall Newspoll. And while I have your attention, please note as per the post above that I’ve got the begging bowl out – donations gratefully received through the link at the top of the page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “A track winding back”

  1. “The former prime minister Tony Abbott has been filmed leaving the Melbourne prison…”

    Didn’t know he went to jail.

    But seriously, he’s allowed to visit a friend there if he wants to. His business.

  2. ajm

    I understand that highlighting the utter hypocrisy of Labor re stunts is confronting for some.

    Labor seems to believe it is on a winning political strategy highlighting something that occurred a decade ago.

    What today’s antics by Labor will do is remind people of the RGR instability and the “carbon tax” under Gillard.

    If Labor thinks its antics will start to stop the perception of voters conflating Labor with the Greens, it will be sadly disappointed.

  3. YEAH FIGHT THE GREENS WHO STOPPED US HAVING A CPRS…

    YEAH keep that anger flowing over Rudd being a massive sook…
    He gave up when the going got tough and he paid the price for being a wimp.

    But yeah, hell keep talking about it. I mean what’s ten years? And just forget the Act from 2011… I mean… Hey who cares about what Julia Gillard did…

  4. One party wants what is needed but can’t get elected.
    Another party will settle for what they can achieve but still can’t get elected.
    The other does not want to do anything and gets elected.

    What good is trying to compromise to achieve something if you still can’t get elected?

  5. “but rather a calculated strategy to introduce an Act which could be built on over time.”
    This. And it would have been a damn sight better than what we have now. Shit, if Howard had won in ’07 maybe we’d have an entrenched carbon price.
    I also resented the greens shitting on Labor over the RET after Labor essentially saved it from being destroyed altogether

  6. Pegasus and Astrobleme,
    At least 90% of Australia, and probably more than a few people who vote for The Greens, don’t care about the subject you both have spent all day getting your knickers in a twist about!

    You can both get narky and snakey at other posters here, but at the end of this day what you have contributed to the debate won’t amount to a hill of beans and likely won’t have changed one vote.

    Get real guys, you’re in danger of disappearing up your own farcical fundamentals.

  7. @Bonza

    Or the Coalition would run the same attack on the CPRS as they ran on the carbon tax and we end up in the same situation as we are now.

  8. “One party wants what is needed but can’t get elected.
    Another party will settle for what they can achieve but still can’t get elected.
    The other does not want to do anything and gets elected.”

    Pretty much where things are.

    People who Vote Lib / Nat are essentially stupid sheep like beings who believe those who tell them what they want to hear and ……vote accordingly.. At least Greens voters have the redeeming quality of mainly preferencing the ALP.

  9. Catprog
    “What good is trying to compromise to achieve something if you still can’t get elected?”

    The reason this ‘discussion’ is so ridiculous is that the Greens and the ALP negotiated to create the Clean Energy Act 2011.

    So everybody did compromise.
    It’s just that it doesn’t fit with the current ALP marketing campaign to admit this

  10. CatMomma

    “Get real guys, you’re in danger of disappearing up your own farcical fundamentals.”

    If this makes you feel better about yourself C@t more power to you.

  11. You can get narky and snakey at other posters here, but at the end of this day what you have contributed to the debate won’t amount to a hill of beans and likely won’t have changed one vote.

    Get real C@tmomma, you’re in danger of disappearing up your own farcical fundamentals.

  12. “they ran on the carbon tax”

    What is this “carbon tax”??? We have never had one. Peta Credlin itself debunked that one. It was Lib/Nat bullshit to jag the credible, stupid, sheep like demographic. You know, like the Canberra Press Gallery.

  13. It’s just that it doesn’t fit with the current ALP marketing campaign to admit this

    That’s essentially it in a nutshell.

    Between now and the next federal election Labor’s priority is to distance itself from the Greens in the mind of those voters it believes really, really matter, the voters in Queensland.

    Such narrow-casting could well backfire. If it does, Labor will have no one else to blame but itself though it will scapegoat someone, anyone for the failure of its political strategy. What’s the bet it will be those evil Greens.

  14. “1. One party wants what is needed but can’t get elected.
    2. Another party will settle for what they can achieve but still can’t get elected.
    3. The other does not want to do anything and gets elected.”

    A very neat summation.

    But Party 2 has a realistic prospect of getting elected.
    Party 3 has no chance.
    Party 1 has to be booted ASAP if we are to make any progress at all.

    I would support zero by 2030 even if I had to pay more tax, sacrifice my franking credits and pay bigger power bills. No one needs to convince me. But then, I’m a weirdo. You need to convince people for whom tax and power bills are a big deal to get elected.

    Politics is always the art of the possible.

  15. Steve777
    says:
    Politics is always the art of the possible.
    __________________________
    Politics is war by other means. And on the inner urban front the Greens are slowly devouring Labor.

  16. Astrobleme @ #1017 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 9:12 pm

    CatMomma

    “Get real guys, you’re in danger of disappearing up your own farcical fundamentals.”

    If this makes you feel better about yourself C@t more power to you.

    I’m not the one who has spent all day abusing people because they don’t agree with me. But I guess, because you have, using your reasoning, it makes you feel good about yourself. 🙂

  17. Bushfire Bill @ #1018 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 9:12 pm

    You can get narky and snakey at other posters here, but at the end of this day what you have contributed to the debate won’t amount to a hill of beans and likely won’t have changed one vote.

    Get real C@tmomma, you’re in danger of disappearing up your own farcical fundamentals.

    The Bully Boy is back, contributing to the overwhelming consensus that he is obsessed with me.

  18. Yes, so the real enemy are the Coalition here.

    Lesson in hypocrisy.

    For weeks there have been whole days taken up with endless Greens carping about Labor for a variety of things, conveniently overlooking the reality that the coalition are in govt and have been for 6 years.

    But now that the Greens are copping criticism, suddenly the coalition is the enemy.

    Too funny.

  19. For weeks their have been criticism of the Greens for bring up climate change while their have been bushfires.

    Someone else brings up climate change to attack the Greens, suddenly we can talk about climate change again.

  20. Pegasus @ #566 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 7:57 pm

    ajm

    I understand that highlighting the utter hypocrisy of Labor re stunts is confronting for some.

    Labor seems to believe it is on a winning political strategy highlighting something that occurred a decade ago.

    What today’s antics by Labor will do is remind people of the RGR instability and the “carbon tax” under Gillard.

    If Labor thinks its antics will start to stop the perception of voters conflating Labor with the Greens, it will be sadly disappointed.

    I actually have no idea how this strategy will play out in the long run and neither do you.

    Its a risk, but probably one worth taking since every other attempt to deal with the situation seems to have failed.

  21. Catprog @ #1030 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 6:34 pm

    For weeks their have been criticism of the Greens for bring up climate change while their have been bushfires.

    Someone else brings up climate change to attack the Greens, suddenly we can talk about climate change again.

    I’ve had no problems talking about climate change the past few weeks, and have been very critical of the govt for wanting to eschew discussion about it.

  22. “ Hey who cares about what Julia Gillard did…”

    I do. Labor does. We won’t be committing to another ‘big show’ on the Somme.

    Thanks, but no thanks.

  23. ————Here. Where have you been between 2013 and now?————
    The ALP hasn’t been in power – they don’t have a climate governance record in that period to criticise or applaud. They do previous to 2013, hence the relevance.

    They did have a great policy on a fed EPA in 2019. And a weak but opaque enough policy on emissions reductions to be expandable. If only enough people voted Greens or ALP in that election you could have a real target to aim at rather than taking swings at shadows.

  24. Wong’s stunt has clearly worked given Pegasus’s fulminations and those of the Greens senators.

    The Greens lining up to vote with the LNP to mark the 10th anniversary of the defeat of the CRPS in the senate is a cracker.

    No wonder Pegasus is infarcting.

  25. I consulted the great man, John Quiggin, and this is what he said about Labor invoking the 2009 CPRS in parliament today:

    I just see the whole thing as a massive distraction. It’s impossible to know what would have happened if different choices had been made 10 years ago, but we do know that we need to act now, instead of scoring points.

    Penny Wong should have presented a motion in the Senate to this effect.

  26. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1040 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 9:50 pm

    Wong’s stunt has clearly worked given Pegasus’s fulminations and those of the Greens senators.

    The Greens lining up to vote with the LNP to mark the 10th anniversary of the defeat of the CRPS in the senate is a cracker.

    No wonder Pegasus is infarcting.

    Don’t forget Astrobleme. He’s turned into Abusobleme today. 😆

  27. https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/11/30/track-winding-back/comment-page-21/#comment-3294608

    The Greens did have a mostly bad election in Victoria, that is true (although they did gain Bruswick). However there are factors that differentiate the Victorian and Commonwealth situation:

    The Victorian ALP has adopted a strategy of trying to appeal to Greens voters with some progressive policies, while opposing the Party, not publicly contemplating withdrawing from many progressive policies (and likely to follow through on many of those contemplations).

    Daniel Adrews is not member for a seat vulnerable to the Greens.

    The Greens are made some candidate selection errors and the ALP found out about them and timed the release after the close of nominations.

    Victoria still has group ticket voting, costing the Greens at least one seat in the Legislative Council.

    Victoria only has 5 members per Legislative Council electorate, reducing the Greens chances of wining seats outside Northern and Southern Metro.

  28. “Because the Greens can not be trusted”
    Scout,
    I have been absent from this blog for a long time because I found the endless sniping pointless. I came back for a look today and your comment is the only bit of sense I can find.
    I have been involved in campaigns for a long time and have been party to many attempts to deal with the Greens. They can never be trusted to keep an agreement and always be trusted to fight dirty.

  29. “But now that the Greens are copping criticism, suddenly the coalition is the enemy.”

    The Coalition are the eternal enemy, always were, are now and always will be. Other squabbles are mere faction fights.

  30. AE

    Your interest in my emotional state is a hoot. As in so many things you are so far off the mark it makes you appear childish in your continued attempts and your need to mischaracterise my calm and measured approach.


  31. Simon Katich says:
    Monday, December 2, 2019 at 9:47 pm
    ……

    They did have a great policy on a fed EPA in 2019. And a weak but opaque enough policy on emissions reductions to be expandable. If only enough people voted Greens or ALP in that election you could have a real target to aim at rather than taking swings at shadows.


    And the Greens being oh so pure screwed it up again.

    Yes today was a stunt, but trying to win an election was not.

    Full marks to Penny for highlighting the Green’s sanctimonious hypocrisy. Will it give the Greens pause to reflect on the damage they have done. Judging by the vote (full solidarity with the Liberal for no action, again), and the response; nasty Penny, a stunt, I doubt we will see change.

    Double down on perfection beats nothing in full technicolor. Attacking Labor beats actual environmental action. Greens hypocrisy personified.

    When it comes to stunts RDN may have practice, but does he really think he is smarter than Penny if she puts here mind to it.

  32. When I called out your first anti-labor screed of the day for what it was, it clearly knocked you off kilter. You went down hill from there little pony.

    How good is Penny Wong?

    How good is the Greens and LNP voting with each other AGAIN on the CRPS after all these years. Properly nostalgic that was.

  33. Labor stooges spend all day attacking the Greens. This is just as we planned. During the secret negotiations with the Liberals at the Menzies Centre gathering this was described as the ‘Pegasus feint’. Dutton was impressed. At the next meeting we will see what else we can come up with in terms of distracting people from the Coalition. We all must do our part.

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