The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll still offers nothing on voting intention, though it’s relative interesting in that it features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. Contrary to Newspoll, these record a weakening in Anthony Albanese’s ratings, with approval down three to 37% and disapproval up five to 34%. Scott Morrison also worsens slightly, down two on approval to 45% and up three on disapproval to 41%, and his preferred prime minister read is essentially steady at 44-28 (43-28 last month).
Further questions relate to the right to protest, including the finding that 33% would support laws flagged by Scott Morrison that “could make consumer or environment boycotts illegal”, while 39% were opposed. Fifty-eight per cent agreed the government had “the right to limit citizen protests when it disrupts business”, with 31% for disagree; but that 53% agreed that “protestors should have the right to pressure banks not to invest in companies that are building coal mines”, with 33% disagreeing.
The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1075 respondents chosen from an online panel.
Rex Douglas @ #1248 Sunday, November 17th, 2019 – 2:44 pm
In general, political leaders don’t change public perceptions. The worst ones follow them. The best ones anticipate them.
“ So you would support policies that would encourage folk to stop buying our coal?‘
Not if said folk will simply source said coal elsewhere without any apparent difficulty. Whatsoever.
@Taniel tweets
Dems SURGE in large suburban counties, Louisiana edition: Edwards won Jefferson Parish (suburbs of NoLa) by 1.2% in 2015, on his way to a large statewide win.
Tonight, he won it by 14%.
And turnout surged by 14% since October. Far more than in heavily-conservative areas.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1253 Sunday, November 17th, 2019 – 2:57 pm
I can’t recall who it was on PB who came up with the term “denier-in-deed”, but the term is just perfect for people like you 🙁
Trump’s be very scared of socialist Bernie Sanders and the “Squad” is really getting results.
Edit: Yes Edwards was no socialist. Still didn’t prevent Trump running the scare campaign. Its just like the LNP saying Labor is high taxing when its giving tax cuts
@mrbenwexler tweets
I hope trump does tons of rallies for Mitch McConnell & Lindsey Graham
Player One
Is this the first half of that saying “A denier in need is a ..:” ?
This too is not preventing voters turning out
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elizabeth-warrens-mug-of-billionaire-tears-costs-25-and-is-one-of-the-hottest-selling-items-on-her-campaign-website-2019-11-15
Maybe there is a lesson here for Labor.
Just watching : Live Election Results: Louisiana Governor
In a very close race it appears as if incumbent John Bel Edwards* ( Democrat ) has beaten heavily Trump Rally backed Eddie Rispone ( Republican ) – 51.1% / 48.9 % of the vote
99% reporting (3,883 of 3,934 precincts)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/16/us/elections/results-louisiana-governor-general-election.html
Louisiana governor race is an early test of Trump’s power to draw voters
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/16/louisiana-governor-race-early-test-trump-power-draw-voters
@DanRather tweets
AP calls Louisiana governor’s race for the Democratic incumbent. The second red state to elect a Democrat in the face of a push by President Trump.
nath
Good to see Shorten rallying the Victorian Right for another tilt at the leadership at the conference. They gave him a standing ovation. I wonder how many underserved standing ovations have been given to politicians.
Hope he does, just to piss you off!. nath!.
poroti @ #1258 Sunday, November 17th, 2019 – 3:15 pm
I tend to interpret it in more of a “By their deeds shall ye know them …” sense.
Its amazing. Trump goes full scare with the socialists are coming the socialists are coming. More Democrat wins in Red States.
Anyone still think the Socialists are coming scares Americans?
A good test of the polls too.
And of how well a mostly conservative democrat can do in the deep south.
SK
Yes. Conservative Democrat. Incumbent. Its why I think the Socialists are coming scare campaign failed.
The interesting part is that used to work against the Democrats to draw a national bogeyman to boost a conservative in a Red State.
Failing now.
I don’t think the Democrats will pivot to the right now. They are seeing the scare campaign fail in real time in Red States so its going to be great for voter turnout in swing states to keep left to get the base to turnout.
The narrative of winning the General of the pivot to the centre to win elections has been proven to be a myth. The primary race on the left is truly not scaring voters away.
“ I can’t recall who it was on PB who came up with the term “denier-in-deed”, but the term is just perfect for people like you ”
Oh, good for you. As pure as your ascension robes.
For all of your piety, you haven’t been able to articulate a way to get the voters in the outer urbs to have a Damascus like change of heart. So, you prescribe reinforced failure.
I have better terms to describe you than ‘denier-in-deed’ but would incur the rath of the management if I were to deploy them.
However, one thing is sure, you are floating down the political river of denial.
Amazing piece of logic that Guytaur. A deeply conservative Democrat wins in the Deep South is evidence that a left wing democrat will win generally.
O-K …
guytaur says: Sunday, November 17, 2019 at 3:22 pm
Its amazing. Trump goes full scare with the socialists are coming the socialists are coming. More Democrat wins in Red States.
Anyone still think the Socialists are coming scares Americans?
*******************************************************
According to an interview with GOP strategist Steve Schmidt :
“I think in America, a sociopath will beat a socialist seven days a week and twice on Sunday. ”
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/10/steve-schmidt-on-trump-impeachment-2020-and-howard-schultz.html
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/17/what-could-i-have-done-the-scientist-who-predicted-the-bushfire-emergency-four-decades-ago
Bit depressing, but a quite sober and rational take on where we are now and the research that told us we would actually be here. 🙁
AE
Yes the logic of the Socialists are coming scare campaign from Trump failed.
It did not stop a conservative Democrat winning. The reason why the GOP love the socialists are coming line? Its worked for them to win before. Now its failing even on their home turf of a conservative state.
The Socialist Bogeyman of Sanders and AOC have failed big time. The bogeyman of Trump is more scary.
New York Times reporter in Hong Kong.
Actually was interested to see in the article i just linked the comment about humidity / fire risk.
guytaur @ #1275 Sunday, November 17th, 2019 – 2:22 pm
That’s the wrong question. The question is whether it scares Trump-negative Republicans who are willing to vote against him/for a return to “normal status-quo”. That it may well do.
The Democrats need to be excited about replacing Trump with literally anyone who isn’t Donald Trump. Their next task is to run someone who’s not so far out there that they scare off Trump-negative Republicans (or worse, turn them into reluctant Trump-positive Republicans). They don’t have to pivot right, just play strategically for one electoral cycle. Small price to pay to be rid of Donald Trump.
Steve777 @ #429 Friday, November 15th, 2019 – 7:45 pm
The Greens absolutely, albeit indirectly, need the votes of people who care more about the cost of living than about the climate.
The Greens can achieve very little with Labor in opposition. A Labor government offers a far more policy friendly environment for the Greens to work than any LNP government ever will. The Greens need Labor in government to have any significant policy influence.
For Labor to win government they directly need votes from people who care more about the cost of living than about the climate. These are votes that will never go further left than Labor’s right, that will never go to the Greens, they will only ever go to Labor or the LNP (or sundry LNP proxies).
Both Labor and Greens need these votes to go to Labor (and stay there).
Anything that prevents that hurts both Labor and Greens.
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doyley @ #813 Saturday, November 16th, 2019 – 5:10 pm
I look forward to the Greens’ public release of their unredacted post-election report on why they did not win government.
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Steve777 @ #448 Friday, November 15th, 2019 – 8:13 pm
Abbott, and his enablers and supporters, are without doubt the primary villains.
“ It did not stop a conservative Democrat winning. ”
Maybe being a known quality (him being the encumbent and all) and definitely not a socialist had something to do with. …
Of course middle America have always, always, been yearning for a fully blown socialist. … everybody knows that.
ar
The evidence is in. Higher Democrat Turnout.
Thats with the Primary Race in full swing and Billionaires crying over a possible Warren win all over Fox News.
They might have to pay a wealth tax.
I am not saying any more than that right wing bogeyman is failing. Online the stuff about the “Squad” and Sanders is even worse on the propaganda media.
Its all failing. Even in conservative Red States the idea of a socialist President is not stopping voter turnout and Democrat wins. That we do know.
Be in no doubt the right is banging that drum very very hard. They have to have something with Trump as President
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1266 Sunday, November 17th, 2019 – 3:30 pm
Let’s see now … worst drought in history, destruction of our agricultural sector, death of our greatest tourism asset, followed by actually burning down people’s houses and killing them … that might just do it, don’t you think?
But if you really think that’s not enough, just wait a while … it is going to get worse 🙁
It is Labor that seems destined for failure here. They are dangerously misreading the shifting currents in the Australian electorate. Or perhaps just seen to be dithering while people are suffering catastrophe after catastrophe. Your current hope seems to be that they will blame anyone else more than they blame Labor, especially in those states where Labor is actually in power. I guess this is why Labor is so intent on painting the Greens as villains. Classic deflection.
The problem with this tactic is that it falls apart every time Labor actually tries to enunciate their actual policies. You can point the finger at others as much as you like, but when people come to you for answers and the best you can say is “we believe coal has a future” you just look a bit stupid.
Oh, go on … you know you want to …
And you and your factional colleagues are floating down the river of political oblivion. And deluding yourselves that this represents some kind of progress.
imacca
I imagine that’s why the BOM and Fire Chiefs are checking rel humidity as part of their fire warnings. It’s not just “Oh what a high temp!”
Louisiana Democrat re-elected governor — despite Trump’s rallies for the Republican candidate
The Associated Press has called the Lousiana’s governor’s race for incumbent Democrat John Bel Edwards.
Edwards triumphed over Republican businessman Eddie Rispone, who called to concede.
The outcome is another major political loss for President Donald Trump, who had held multiple campaign rallies for Rispone.
During his most recent rally, Trump begged the crowd to give him a “big win” in the election.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/11/louisiana-democrat-re-elected-governor-despite-trumps-rallies-for-the-republican-candidate/
To me, it says that Democrats should embrace their diversity. They have strong politicians at all levels; liberal, soclialist, billionaire, moderate and conservative ones. Sure, only one will be the presidential nomination, but that person can still represent that diversity and the commonality that binds them to one party.
Some policies will no doubt cause consternation for either being too liberal, too moderate or whatever. It would be up to the nominee (and hopefully President) to walk that fine line, reduce the number of potential rift making policies, and in some cases allow states to go their own way. It is up to the democrat voting populace (liberals, moderates, conservatives) to accept that they will not get everything they want.
So we have Earlwood—whose main fault seems to be an excess of pragmatism and even cynicism—being accused of being a “denier”…. Classique!
I think the problem in 2011 was the Greens used the situation to validate the party ( see the tail can wag the dog), after all up to then they had done no more than destroy opportunities for environmental progress. They have been trying to do the same since and the Liberals are only too happy to help.
The validation scared the trousers off a reasonable chunk of voters. Until Labor removes the parasite no environmental progress can be made. That is the fundamental problem.
Voters Humiliate Trump As Democrat Wins Louisiana Governor Election
Bel Edwards withstood a rally from Donald Trump for his Republican opponent, Eddie Rispone. At the rally, Trump said, “You need to fire your far-left governor.”
Louisiana voters didn’t listen to the president.
Trump is being impeached, and even in the reddest of states, he has proven to be of no help to his party.
John Bel Edwards’s margin of victory will be slim, but it will represent another defeat for the myth of Donald Trump.
https://www.politicususa.com/2019/11/16/democrat-wins-louisiana-governor-election.html
SK
The big lesson. Going left has led to voter enthusiasm and turnout. Yes even in conservative states with conservative Democrats they know the party has moved left. They see all the scare mongering from the right and the reporting on how far left the Democrats have gone with focus on Sanders and Warren fighting Biden and the others. Thats the actual narrative they are using to make it entertaining to their audience.
The usual make the extremes the story. In a polarised electorate that certainly increases viewing figures.
Thats why I say its interesting the whole scare campaign is not working. Its not like we have not been told the idea of Bernie Sanders or the “Squad” is going to be manna from heaven to the right. We have seen such comments even on this blog.
Election results are proving thats wrong. It appears the idea of Bernie Sanders and the “Squad” is not the manna from heaven we have been told it would be for the right.
E. G. Theodore @ #1282 Sunday, November 17th, 2019 – 4:01 pm
By their deeds shall ye know them.
Makes it very easy to spot who’s genuine and who’s not, doesn’t it?
E. G. Theodore @ #1282 Sunday, November 17th, 2019 – 4:01 pm
Apparently, they will choose who believes in climate change and form that belief must take.
I agree, they are pathetic.
It was a dumb tactic. Why choose those two elections to hang your hat?
Unless you know that you cant lose even when you lose. His base were not going to leave him for losing those elections. He is Teflon coated with a two headed coin.
Player One
NSW Labor is the embodiment of Richo’s “whatever it takes”. Once you accept that proposition nothing will ever surprise.
I think we should all adopt whatever strategy the Labor right comes up with because they’ve been so successful in the past.
poroti @ #1289 Sunday, November 17th, 2019 – 4:10 pm
Yes, I am no longer surprised by much that NSW Labor does. Just astonished at how poorly they do it. Foley was another good example. And, of course, there are deep links between Richo and Foley.
You might be tempted to look the other way if they were successful at it, but to be so compromised and then lose anyway is just sheer incompetence 🙁
poroti @ #1303 Sunday, November 17th, 2019 – 4:10 pm
As long as you carry an Aldi shopping bag, Labor are yours…
timdunlop
@timdunlop
Classic moments of the NSW Right:
Episode 1:
Before the May 1991 NSW state election, Eddie Obeid and Graham Freudenberg and others stood for ALP pre-selection for the NSW Upper House. Graham Freudenberg, who was later awarded Life Membership of the ALP was supported by Michael Easson, Secretary of the NSW Labor Council and Bob Carr. But Graham Richardson, impressed by Eddie Obeid’s ability to raise and donate money, threw his weight behind Obeid.
Graham Freudenberg finished in an unwinnable ninth position on the ALP ticket.
Shortly after the 1991 State election, a casual vacancy in the Upper House occurred and Eddie Obeid was chosen. Graham Richardson had finally got his man in place. But the possible future parliamentary career for Graham Freudenberg was dashed.
To top off his loss – Graham Freudenberg was asked by Senator Loosley, a former ALP General Secretary in NSW, if he would write Eddie Obeid’s maiden speech in the Legislative Council.
https://johnmenadue.com/john-menadue-how-graham-freudenberg-lost-to-eddie-obeid/
adrian @ #1293 Sunday, November 17th, 2019 – 4:18 pm
Sure, being a mouthy dickhead always helps you convince others to join your cause.
GG
It worked for the Franklin Dam. It worked for many many protests. Being “quiet australians” not so much.
Greensborough Growler @ #1295 Sunday, November 17th, 2019 – 4:27 pm
Craig, good to see you back!
Being a ‘mouthy dickhead’ appears to be your speciality; one in which you excel, old chap.
Oh look some Australians not being quiet.
https://www.961.com.au/newsroom/airport-workers-to-hold-noisy-protest-across-australia-today/
adrian @ #1297 Sunday, November 17th, 2019 – 4:32 pm
Humour us all. Explain how your attitude and abuse would encourage anyone to want to take any notice of anything you say or do?
Greensborough Growler @ #1299 Sunday, November 17th, 2019 – 4:37 pm
Well, it certainly seems to be working on you 🙂