Essential Research: budget surplus and economic management

Essential Research’s latest suggests voters still give the Coalition the edge on economic management, but are nervous about their prioritisation of surplus over stimulus.

It hasn’t yet appeared on the organisation’s website, but The Guardian had reports on Tuesday concerning the latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which is still holding its fire on voting intention. There’s the usual general report on the survey from Katharine Murphy, plus analysis from pollster Peter Lewis that features detailed tables for two of the key questions.

The headline finding is that 56% would favour prioritising economic stimulus at the cost of a later budget surplus to avoid a downturn, compared with 33% who favour a surplus as first priority. Other indicators of economic sentiment were more favourable for the government: only 29% of respondents deemed the government’s economic management the most likely cause of the IMF’s recent downgrade in Australia’s growth forecast, compared with 52% for factors outside the government’s control most likely to blame (comprising 42% for global factors and 10% for local ones), and 49% expressed greater trust in the Coalition to handle economic management compared with 34% for Labor (compared with 44% to 29% when the question was last asked in March). A question on the Extinction Rebellion movement found more favourable sentiment than you might have expected from following the news: 52% expressed support for the campaign, while 44% were opposed.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1033 respondents out of the pollster’s online panel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,706 comments on “Essential Research: budget surplus and economic management”

Comments Page 3 of 35
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  1. guytaur

    Ah……

    Norway and Scotland have extracted about the same amount of oil from the North Sea. Norway has a $1tn sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world

    What did Scotland get? ……. Foodbanks!

    It’s a price Scotland is still happy to pay to belong to the precious union. 🙂

  2. Confessions @ #96 Thursday, October 31st, 2019 – 10:03 am

    Hospital scrambled eggs, like hotel scrambled eggs probably sit for hours in a bain marie. A sure-fire way to stuff them up.

    and

    lizzie
    Thursday, October 31st, 2019 – 9:59 am
    Comment #93

    It’s all coming back to me. Bain Marie – the old Bain Marie trick chief.

    What’s for tea tonight. Why it’s scrambled eggs on toast of course. 🍳🥚

  4. Swamp

    With Brexit happening. With the customs border being in the Irish Sea Scotland could be joining Norway soon.

    That Independence vote win day is getting closer.

  6. Ballooning waistlines have turned type 2 diabetes into a global epidemic. But growing evidence points to another risk factor – one that poses less danger but cannot be fully avoided – bisphenol A, commonly known as BPA.

    Bisphenol A is the controversial chemical used to make certain plastics. It is so widely used that 95 per cent of people have detectable levels in their urine.

    New research from the Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute in Melbourne now suggests exposure to BPA increases your risk of developing type 2 diabetes.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/exposure-to-chemical-in-plastic-linked-to-type-2-diabetes-study-finds-20191030-p535r3.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1572463082

  8. Bert:

    [‘This might be of some interest to you
    https://www.awm.gov.au/collection/C190950'%5D

    Thanks, and it was of interest to me, the video bringing back memories of events fifty years ago.

    Desi:

    [‘Love the anecdotes of vast, independent research of testimonials by the usual septuagenarians who spend all day on here barking their subjective opinions at everyone and are totally not motivated to make complete bullshit up to validate their viewpoints.’]

    How dare you suggest I make things up. With age sometimes comes wisdom. You’ll get there one day.

  9. guytaur

    I have become quite pessimistic.

    It’s a bit like Australia in terms of the wall to wall Unionist Media, particularly the State Broadcaster and the ruthless Westminster State.

    The barrage of lies and threats that came out in the last two weeks in 2014 will be nothing compared with what will happen next time if the Westminster State thinks it will lose its last colony.

  11. @GDixon1977
    ·
    17m
    Nobody does hypocrisy like the LNP.
    Marissa Payne lectures China about human rights violations while AU has been told to release the Bilo Four from Christmas Island & bring the refugees on Manus & Nauru to AU.

  12. When has the IPA run specific seat campaigns against specific politicians?
    When has the IPA printed and handed out How To Vote cards?

  13. Swamp

    Be Optimistic. Johnson makes May look like a very competent PM.

    If Corbyn wins Independence for Scotland will likely be further away but at least real Democratic Socialism will be back and more respect for Scotland and it’s Autonomy.

    It’s really interesting that Brexit has revealed the Good Friday Agreement by Blair was of shared sovereignty. The Union break up is happening it’s only a question of how fast or slow.

  14. Phil-AUS-ophy.

    @adamliaw
    Oct 30
    For $38 million dollars I could’ve told you that wordplay doesn’t work very well with non-native English speakers.

  15. Bert:

    [‘Happy you found it interesting and I hope it didn’t stir up any bad memories.’]

    Not at all. I really enjoyed that time of my life.

  18. Nath

    Do yourself a favour. Ditch Foxtel.

    Go with.

    Disney +
    Netflix
    Amazon Prime (Includes free delivery and unlimited book access as well)
    Apple TV +

    You will still pay less than you do for Foxtel.

  20. nath
    Thanks for the link. I have studied US history formally and informally for half a century. I had never heard of that one. There were many more lynchings but, while thousands of people – including women and children – might turn up and enjoy the spectacle, lynchings were generally one at a time. There was a roaring trade in lynching postcards. Massacres in other places are a whole nuther story.

    US history is truly blood-soaked and often, but not always, race-based: have a gander at the following list which includes the 13,000 dead in Andersonville during the Civil War.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_the_United_States

  22. guytaur
    says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 10:37 am
    Nath
    Do yourself a favour. Ditch Foxtel.
    Go with.
    Disney +
    Netflix
    Amazon Prime (Includes free delivery and unlimited book access as well)
    Apple TV +
    You will still pay less than you do for Foxtel.
    ____________________________
    guytaur, I’ve got Foxtel, Netflix, Stan and Prime and Apple TV

    I think I pay over $150 a month for these. I would be in big trouble if I tried to drop any of them.

  23. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 10:26 am

    When has the IPA run specific seat campaigns against specific politicians?
    When has the IPA printed and handed out How To Vote cards?’

    They don’t need to, do they? Other than that, the IPA is probably the most pernicious single organisation in the entire history of Australia.

  28. guytaur
    says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 10:50 am
    Nath
    You can drop Foxtel when Disney arrives this November.
    Most of the content is moving there.
    ________________________
    What no Paul Murray? I will lose my talking points!

  29. Confessions @ #42 Thursday, October 31st, 2019 – 8:27 am

    and 49% expressed greater trust in the Coalition to handle economic management compared with 34% for Labor

    Incredible after all the economic mismanagement scandals from this lot. I guess this just says it all that people simply have a perception of reality and that perception is tough to shift.

    Most of those people believe the Coalition will manage the economy better for them personally, not for other Australians, who they don’t give a rat’s about.

    This is one of Howard’s most enduring and pernicious legacies.

  32. – – US history is truly blood-soaked and often, but not always, race-based: – –
    It is something I bring up when peeps argue that some cultures (read race – African, South American, Middle East etc) are more violent and chaotic than others. For further evidence, look at what an educated, sophisticated, ‘civilised’ Germany did. Or the Belgians. Or the English ……..

    I seem to get into these discussions with expat South Africans or Rhodesians after a few beers after watching a rugby game.

  33. I think it is fair to assume that anyone who spends a significant amount of time here is very likely no spring chicken

    I can think of several other categories, but I don’t want to bore you.

  36. “No it isn’t. Labor end up with these votes anyway.

    You are clearly focused on the wrong problem.”

    ***

    Correct. Vote 1 Greens and make sure to preference Labor ahead of the Coalition. That way your vote either goes towards electing a left wing progressive Green, or flows through to Labor and helps them get over the Coalition.

    1. Greens
    2. Animal Justice (or any other left wing/progressive minors)
    3. Labor

  37. – – I think it is fair to assume that anyone who spends a significant amount of time here (possibly excepting guytaur) is very likely no spring chicken – –
    Hey!

  39. Did Indigenous people engage in warfare?

    I was present at what may have been the last major organised magarada by ordeal in Arnhemland. It was triggered by the killing of a man. It happened less than fifty years ago. Spears were thrown. Blood was drawn. Since it involved the armed assault by dozens of men against dozens of men, it was all highly illegal. The police did not want to know about it in the official sense. No charges were laid.

    https://austhrutime.com/feud_and_warfare.htm

  40. @Triplejay58
    ·
    56m
    #RightToKnow

    Public: We are very concerned about Scott & Jenny Morrison’s relationship with QAnon’s Tim & Lynette Stewart. Please investigate.

    Media: Okay, we’ll talk to Jenny about having babies & the 14 year struggle that left the PM ‘sad inside’.

  41. – – Historically humanity has been/is a violent species. – –
    I am not sure David. Maybe this…
    Historically, humanity has shown it is capable of extreme violence.

    Humanity is more generally capable of great love and kindness.

  42. simon holmes à court
    @simonahac
    LNP donor #TrevorStBaker bought the vales point power station from
    @GladysB for the cost of a house in sydney.

    2 years later it was revalued for $731m.

    …and
    @mattjcan has all but confirmed @AngusTaylorMP
    will soon give it $millions to prolong its life.

  43. Player One says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 10:49 am


    frednk @ #28 Thursday, October 31st, 2019 – 7:56 am

    The problem is those that vote (1) Green, (2) Labor …

    No it isn’t. Labor end up with these votes anyway.

    You are clearly focused on the wrong problem.

    Oh yes it is.
    1) The voter has not got what thy wanted, a more progressive vote.
    2) The voter has given the Greens public money to further undermine the progressive vote.
    It is a serious problem.

  44. guytaur says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 9:52 am
    A reminder of how socialism works.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-30/norway-s-wealth-fund-gains-26-billion-on-rally-in-u-s-assets

    In what way is this especially socialist? The Kingdoms of Brunei and Saudi Arabia also run sovereign wealth funds, though they may not use that name. Every economy that persistently runs a surplus in the current account has at least a de facto SWF. There are plenty of these. China is included. Does it follow that economies that run deficits in their current account (counter-surplus) cannot be socialist?

    Norway’s SWF is above all an exchange rate management tool. It keeps surplus income out of their domestic economy. It is a savings account. Are you saying that saving is the definition of socialism?

  46. Why is it that A Voice to Parliament will divide Australians on race but the Religious Discrimination Bill will not divide Australians on religion?

  47. I watched our prime water boy the other day and it struck me forcefully that he is a personal victim of his Government’s apparent inability to address the assault on the budget surplus occasioned by the medical and work-related costs of our national obesity epidemic. Perhaps it is the stress of this particular failure that has made Morrison’s obesity issues more pronounced since he garrotted Turnbull? It certainly seems to be working that way for Morrison’s very own Light on the Hill: Trump.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-13/is-federal-government-pulling-its-weight-to-prevent-obesity/11202622

    The argument seems to be that no one nostrum can work and that public relations campaigns tend to fail and/or to make things worse.

    I would have thought that there is one thing that governments can do which has an immediate, systematic, and widespread impact on obesity: a sugar tax.

    What about it Mr Morrison?

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