Essential Research: budget surplus and economic management

Essential Research’s latest suggests voters still give the Coalition the edge on economic management, but are nervous about their prioritisation of surplus over stimulus.

It hasn’t yet appeared on the organisation’s website, but The Guardian had reports on Tuesday concerning the latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which is still holding its fire on voting intention. There’s the usual general report on the survey from Katharine Murphy, plus analysis from pollster Peter Lewis that features detailed tables for two of the key questions.

The headline finding is that 56% would favour prioritising economic stimulus at the cost of a later budget surplus to avoid a downturn, compared with 33% who favour a surplus as first priority. Other indicators of economic sentiment were more favourable for the government: only 29% of respondents deemed the government’s economic management the most likely cause of the IMF’s recent downgrade in Australia’s growth forecast, compared with 52% for factors outside the government’s control most likely to blame (comprising 42% for global factors and 10% for local ones), and 49% expressed greater trust in the Coalition to handle economic management compared with 34% for Labor (compared with 44% to 29% when the question was last asked in March). A question on the Extinction Rebellion movement found more favourable sentiment than you might have expected from following the news: 52% expressed support for the campaign, while 44% were opposed.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1033 respondents out of the pollster’s online panel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,706 comments on “Essential Research: budget surplus and economic management”

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  1. BW

    So you are anti gay now? Labor is to let the bigots and homophobes rule because it’s “politically correct”.

    Way to trash human rights. This as the IPA is attacking the “politically correct” idea of the Uluru Meeting Voice To Parliament.

    Labor has to get real. It is for human rights or it’s not.

    Yes opposing “politically correct” is opposing gay rights which are human rights.

    Remember it’s “politically correct” to want to end religious exemptions so teachers can be fired and students expelled from schools because they happen to be honest about being who they are.

    Labor selling human rights down the river if they are listening to this “politically correct” rubbish from the right.

  5. @smh
    ·
    15h
    Australia’s outgoing ambassador to the US Joe Hockey has called on Americans to reduce the growing gap between rich and poor, fix their crumbling infrastructure and take a lesson from Australians on how to relax.

    Relax? What about the growth of mental health problems?

  7. lizzie @ #54 Thursday, October 31st, 2019 – 8:35 am

    @smh
    ·
    15h
    Australia’s outgoing ambassador to the US Joe Hockey has called on Americans to reduce the growing gap between rich and poor, fix their crumbling infrastructure and take a lesson from Australians on how to relax.

    Relax? What about the growth of mental health problems?

    What happened to comfortable?

  8. If you want to see what a parallel situation looks like but without the SDA, look at the awful things that are happening to the non-unionized rural workers.

    I can’t recall any of the anti-SDA Brigade comrades talking about rural labour’s miserable experiences at all. Are these same comrades at the barricades in the stinking accomodation, the sexually exploited young women, and the massive wage theft that is institutionalized through rural labour hire?

    FMD. No way. It is hot out there. And dusty. And there are flies. And there is probably cow and sheep shit. And, gasp, GMOs!

    The earnest comrades leave no stone unturned – except when it comes to actually lifting a finger to help the helpless.

    Exactly, Boerwar.

    To which I must add that it’s one of those dirty scummy SDA plants in the ALP, Senator Deborah O’Neill, who has actually done the hard yards uncovering the Wage Theft problem, starting with her work on the 7-11 issue. Not only that but also continuing with Retail Food Group franchisees’ exploitation and yes, going out to the MIA and other areas where workers are exploited, to get the evidence needed to keep prosecuting the case against ruthless employers.

    But hey, comfortably-ensconced inner city whingers, let’s spend the REST of the day whinging and spitting at the SDA and supporting a retail union that is a vanity project for its disgruntled founder, eh? 🙄

  9. Yesterday was a small point in history.
    We had some work done to our house by a tradie.
    Everything you would expect from a good tradie, we got.
    Even the ute is a tradie ute.
    This tradie was a woman.
    When the work was completed to our mutual satisfaction we presented a Barossa bottle to her to celebrate this tiny but wonderful moment in history.

  11. Cat

    Your sneering at inner city people does you no credit.

    There are still homeless and Public Housing in inner city areas.
    Stop using the right wing talking points of division just because you disagree with a viewpoint.

  13. These days you can’t tell whether Hockey is lifting or leaning.
    Has he done a deal whereby Morrison does good cop and Hockey bad cop?

    If not, bizarre behaviour from an Australian ambassador to DC.

    Were Hockey a Labor appointment the noises of horror and consternation and condemnation from the Murdoch minions would be reaching peak cacophony.

  15. Woah! Imagine if this happened here.

    Twitter on Wednesday said it would ban all advertisements about political candidates, elections and hot-button policy issues such as abortion and immigration, a significant shift that comes in response to growing concerns that politicians are seizing on the vast reach of social media to deceive voters ahead of the 2020 election.

    Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey announced the shift in policy in a series of tweets, stressing that paying for political speech has the effect of “forcing highly optimized and targeted political messages on people.” The move marks a break with Twitter’s social-media peers, Facebook and Google-owned YouTube, which have defended their policies around political ads in recent weeks.

    “While internet advertising is incredibly powerful and very effective for commercial advertisers, that power brings significant risks to politics, where it can be used to influence votes to affect the lives of millions,” Dorsey said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/10/30/twitter-ban-all-political-ads-amid-election-uproar/

  18. C@tmomma
    says:
    To which I must add that it’s one of those dirty scummy SDA plants in the ALP, Senator Deborah O’Neill, who has actually done the hard yards uncovering the Wage Theft problem
    ___________________________________
    She was deputy head of the franchising inquiry. All non-SDA related businesses. I can’t seem to recall her saying anything about the SDA/Colesworth EBA scandal though.

    I will look at her twitter today. Surely someone so committed to fair pay would comment on the recent Woolworths issue. But I expect all the SDA parliamentarians to stay pretty silent on that.

  19. https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/central-coast/gosford-hospital-food-inedible-meal-served-to-5yearold-leukaemia-patient/news-story/0ac45b8bc31b400d2178f087528e8240

    Plastic looking, watery scrambled eggs, raw potato wedges and pea and tofu curry were served to a child on the paediatric ward at Gosford Hospital.

    The quality of food hitting the hospital tray table has prompted a Bateau Bay mum to speak out.

    Mahala Rae has been taking her five-year-old son Louis to Gosford Hospital over the past few months for treatment after he was diagnosed with Lymphoblastic Lymphoma.

    I have no idea of how much of a beat up (or not) is this story.
    Pray tell – how does one stuff up scrambled eggs ❓

  20. Your sneering at inner city people does you no credit.

    There are still homeless and Public Housing in inner city areas.
    Stop using the right wing talking points of division just because you disagree with a viewpoint.

    While there are some valid criticisms of policy being geared only towards urbane voters and the folly of dismissing outer suburban and rural voters as “hicks” or “bogans”, you are absolutely right that it’s an overused strawman used by conservatives and incomprehensibly clueless centrists to sneer at and dismiss anything they don’t like or don’t care the slightest about because it doesn’t affect them. A similar issue exists with the term “Identity politics” – in that case, it’s even sadder as I see it abused by leftists too.

  21. Desi

    Yes. The sneering is not good.

    Even when I sneer at the climate denial in the LNP I am not helping to get them to listen to the science.

    As for Identity Politics that’s a term much abused too.
    As you can see with attacks on Social Justice Warriors or “Woke” people.

    Usually marginalised minorities being attacked for daring to raise their voice. It’s only a problem for mainstream parties when the opposing party paints paying attention to that as if that’s all the party does.

  22. In the early proto-Neanderthal state of the Trump Potentate Trump did a bit of posturing which ‘forced’ the JSF to do a deal which reduced the prices of the JSF fighters. I assume that the ‘industrial’ half of the military industrial complex immediately started biding their time. This arsehole was costing them real money.

    Since then Trump used his CIC status to posture in front of dozens of large gatherings of US armed forces peeps. I am not sure how that went down with the uniforms but they would all have been mindful that Trump was not one of them. He had bone spurs. They spilled blood and lost friends and colleagues.
    Occasionally, Trump’s narcissism caused a bit of over reach and he emotionally hurt grieving families but these cracks were always papered over.
    Various military members of his senior administration were duly bastardized and forced out one way or another. These included people like Mattis.
    While cumulative, none of this was enough.

    Now I believe the final two straws are:
    (a) his treacherous behaviour in relation to Ukraine. Part of the washup is Trump’s minions bastardizing a purple heart war vet.
    (b) his betrayal of the Kurds.
    IMO, Trump has finally lost the ‘military’ half of the military-industrial complex.
    There will be no second term for Trump.

  23. I don’t think they even care about the science guytaur. My brother in law argues that all it will take is a couple of volcanoes going off to reverse global warming……

  24. Boerwar:

    You were asking yesterday why the impeachment inquiry resolution now.

    Why are they having a vote, really?

    It does seem that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) initially had no intention of doing this. There are no rules that say she has to hold a vote, and the inquiry has had success calling witnesses for weeks now, even though there wasn’t a vote formalizing it.

    But House Democratic leadership felt the pressure of Republican claims that they weren’t being transparent. Not that Republicans’ attacks were all merited: Closed-door depositions are the norm in Congress when dealing with the executive branch. Even former Republican lawmaker Trey Gowdy, who led the 2016 investigation into Hillary Clinton and the 2012 Benghazi attack, said as much (while also vouching for some of Republicans’ complaints in this instance). You don’t want lawmakers performing for the camera, and you don’t want witnesses knowing what other witnesses know.

    But Trump and the Republicans are relentless, and on this, effective, messengers. So, there will be a vote.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/10/30/what-will-house-impeachment-inquiry-resolution-actually-do/

  25. guytaur @ #66 Thursday, October 31st, 2019 – 8:49 am

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/30/if-economics-is-a-science-why-isnt-it-being-more-helpful

    Depends entirely on one’s point of view.

    Ms. J. Sloan (methinks) finds economics extremely helpful – although perhaps not to the broader community.

    For those made of sterner stuff.

    https://www.facebook.com/theboltreport/videos/watch-judith-sloan-of-the-australian-says-demand-for-thermal-coal-is-massively-g/793534724339547/

  26. Ms Price is a living demonstration that when your nation is conquered and occupied by the enemy you have no good choices left.
    Only bad choices of varying degrees.
    The military problem was that the Indigenous Peoples had the erstwhile equivalent of Light Mobile Forces.
    Their conquerors had the artillery and the repeating rifles.

    In relation to Ms Price’s general stance, it is this:

    That there are numerous serious practical problems that deserve priority over a Voice. Ms Price is particularly, and justifiably, concerned with high levels of domestic violence in some Indigenous communities. Her view is informed by a direct binary. If we are talking about a Voice we can’t be fixing domestic violence. On this there can be no walking and chewing gum.

    But, if by ‘practical’ she means spending programs that make a real difference, Price has placed herself in the invidious position of having to defend the hundreds of millions cut from Indigenous programs by the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison governments. These same cuts are, of course, popular with the… IPA.

  27. Nath

    Yes that’s why I end up sneering. I see it as being the equivalent of anti vaxxers and flat earthers.

    Reality not in the mix

  29. Clare O’Neil’s speech sounds good and surely corresponds to the views of many traditional Labor voters, including myself.

    However, the evidence will be what happens when the next social media mobbing occurs over a 10 year old tweet or a statement that Adani isn’t that bad.

  33. I don’t think they even care about the science guytaur. My brother in law argues that all it will take is a couple of volcanoes going off to reverse global warming……

    Checks out. Maybe if I leave my fridge open it will help too.

  34. And Democrats release a handy checklist to counter the likely Trump whinging that the impeachment inquiry is biased against him.
    (via the Judiciary Committee)

    :large

  35. Ms Price believes that the Voice will divide Australians by race.
    Now that would be a terrible new thing to be happening in Australia!

    Mr Pearson is a lot quieter lately. Being shafted does that for you, I suppose.
    Ms Price will, presumably, learn the same lesson in due course.
    Mr Wyatt is in the process of learning that the ‘Voice’ may be just another word for a high level committee that advises the government of the day.
    Whereat the government of the day does what it wants anyway.
    The current committees under the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison governments have basically failed at representing Indigenous people.
    To date many indigenous leaders are engaged in sotto voce discussions with Wyatt in the vague hope that something real will come out of it all.
    Dodson’s words at the closing of the climb were a public reminder that the outcomes had better be real in some way or other.
    There are three tests:
    1. will there be a commitment to Treaty negotiations?
    2. Will there be a proposal to change the body of the Constitution (not just the Preamble which has no legally binding effect)?
    3. Will there be an elected body which has the sole task of directly advising the Parliament?

  36. Hey confessions, as you seem to be interested in the impeachment process, if you like to listen to podcasts, I highly recommend recent episodes of Opening Arguments.

    The show features two hosts, one of whom is a lawyer, and he recently has given a good deep dive into the process of impeachment and the cases that might be made and what articles he thinks will pass the House.

    The show does have a bit of a centre-left bias but the legal stuff is still fairly interesting and given as straight as possible.

  37. nath @ #73 Thursday, October 31st, 2019 – 8:59 am

    I don’t think they even care about the science guytaur. My brother in law argues that all it will take is a couple of volcanoes going off to reverse global warming……

    Could it be ❓ Mr. A. Abbott on this very subject.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-10/tony-abbott-says-action-on-climate-change-is-like-killing-goats/9033090

    Policy to deal with climate change is like primitive people killing goats to appease volcano gods, former prime minister Tony Abbott has told an audience in Britain overnight.

    Mr Abbott has argued that “at least so far it is climate change policy that is doing harm; climate change itself is probably doing good — or at least more good than harm”.

    “In most countries far more people die in cold snaps than in heatwaves, so a gradual lift in global temperatures, especially if it is accompanied by more prosperity and more capacity to adapt to change might even be beneficial,” he told the Global Warming Policy Foundation in the United Kingdom in a speech called Daring to Doubt.

    I’m not sure whether the goats would trigger or stop an eruption. The thinking on reversing global warming is a little too convoluted for me.

    Over and out. Plumber Tradie doing good work today at very reasonable price.

  38. Confessions

    Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 8:34 am
    Maude Lynne:

    I guess you can also add in a helpful media that goes easy on you.

    A Gore Vidal quote which would be somewhat applicable to Australia.

    The corporate grip on opinion in the United States is one of the wonders of the Western world. No First World country has ever managed to eliminate so entirely from its media all objectivity – much less dissent.

    Gore Vidal

  39. Already noted, but worth a repeat.

    “While internet advertising is incredibly powerful and very effective for commercial advertisers, that power brings significant risks to politics, where it can be used to influence votes to affect the lives of millions,” Dorsey said.

    I don’t expect FB to follow suite.

    EDIT: Twitter to ban political ads, worldwide.

  41. They’ve got it back-to-front, the Libs are demonstrably a front for the IPA.

    That’s actually literally true.

    The IPA was founded in 1943, first in Victoria, as a political (i.e. anti-Labor) front for Big Business. The Liberal Party didn’t come along until 1945.

    Initial Board members of the IPA read like a Who’s Who of plutocrats from the big end of town when “The Big End Of Town” really meant something.

    G. J. Coles (Chairman)
    Chairman of Directors, G. J. Coles & Co.

    H. G. Darling
    Chairman of Directors, The Broken Hill Pty. Co.

    Captain C. A. M. Derham
    President, Victorian Chamber of Manufacturers.

    G. H. Grimwade
    Director, Drug Houses of Australia.

    H. R. Harper
    General Manager, the Victoria Insurance Co.

    W. A. Ince
    Lawyer and Company Director.

    F. E. Lampe
    President, Australian Council of Retailers.

    Sir Walter Massy-Greene
    Company Director, with a distinguished past career in Federal politics.

    Sir Keith Murdoch
    Chairman of Directors, The Herald & Weekly Times.

    L. J. McConnan
    Chief Manager, the National Bank of A/sia.

    Cecil N. McKay
    Managing Director, H. V. McKay-Massey-Harris.

    W. E. McPherson
    Chairman of Directors, McPherson’s.

    W. I. Potter
    Founder, Ian Potter & Co. (Sharebrokers).

    A. G. Warner
    Managing Director, Electronic Industries.

  44. KayJay

    How do you stuff up scrambled eggs? Easy.

    1. Don’t make them with only eggs and butter, cooked gently and stirred slowly.
    2. Instead, beat lots of milk and cornflour into a minimal number of pale, stale eggs.
    3. Pour into a large flat pan and bake slowly in oven.
    4. Or bake too quickly so that it curdles.
    5. Leave until almost cold before serving, stirring it up a little for the “scrambled” look.

    Job done.

  49. lizzie @ #93 Thursday, October 31st, 2019 – 9:59 am

    KayJay

    How do you stuff up scrambled eggs? Easy.

    1. Don’t make them with only eggs and butter, cooked gently and stirred slowly.
    2. Instead, beat lots of milk and cornflour into a minimal number of pale, stale eggs.
    3. Pour into a large flat pan and bake slowly in oven.
    4. Or bake too quickly so that it curdles.
    5. Leave until almost cold before serving, stirring it up a little for the “scrambled” look.

    Job done.

    It’s not that easy lizzie – you have to do way more work to stuff up scrambled eggs than to do it well.

  50. But hey, comfortably-ensconced inner city whingers, let’s spend the REST of the day whinging and spitting at the SDA and supporting a retail union that is a vanity project for its disgruntled founder, eh?

    Oh for FFS! Mindlessly repeating right wing tropes does you no credit.

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